Nigeria: Age distribution and school attendance of girls aged 9-13 years. UNESCO Institute for Statistics. 22 August 2013

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1 1. Introduction Nigeria: Age distribution and school attendance of girls aged 9-13 years UNESCO Institute for Statistics 22 August 213 This document provides an overview of the pattern of school attendance of girls 9-13 years old in Nigeria, based on data collected with a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in 28. Results are presented for the total population of girls aged 9-13, as well as by household location (urban and rural) and wealth quintile. Survey data on school attendance are combined with population estimates by the UN Population Division (UNPD 211) to arrive at estimates of the total number of girls between 9 and 13 years in and out of school in Nigeria. Section 2 summarizes the national system of Nigeria. Section 3 describes the sources and limitations of the data used in the subsequent analysis. Section 4 provides estimates of the number of girls between 9 and 13 years in Nigeria between 2 and 215. Section 5 provides information from household surveys to measure coverage for the target age group. Section 6 delves into the school attendance patterns of 9- to 13-year-old girls by level and grade. It addresses the question of equity by comparing the school attendance rates of girls from urban, rural, rich and poor households. Section 7 looks at school participation from a complementary angle and examines the age distribution of girls in primary and secondary by grade. This analysis also presents disparities by household location and wealth. Lastly, Section 8 presents summary tables with data on school attendance by age and grade for ages National system The national system in Nigeria is divided into the following levels of : primary, as defined by the country, begins at age 6 and has a duration of 6 years. The entry age of lower secondary is 12 years, and it lasts 3 years. Upper secondary begins at 15 years old and has a duration of 3 years. Tertiary or post-secondary begins at age 18. The tables and graphs in this document present data on school attendance according to the levels and grades of as classified by the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) 1997 (UNESCO 26). In the case of Nigeria, the ISCED classification is the same as the national system described above. Table 2.1 presents the theoretical (intended) grade and level of for 9- to 13-year-olds, according to both classifications. The actual age of students in these grades may differ substantially, please see Section 7.2 to 7.6. Table 2.1 Intended level and grade for children aged 9-13 years, Nigeria, Education system (National definition) Junior secondary Education system (ISCED) grade 4 grade 4 grade 5 grade 5 Source: Country approved ISCED mappings, (UIS 213). grade 6 grade 6 grade 1 Lower secondary grade 1 Junior secondary grade 2 Lower secondary grade 2 1

2 3. Sources and limitations of data on population and 3.1 Population data The number of girls by age in Nigeria was obtained from the 21 revision of the World Population Prospects by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD 211b). UNPD generates population estimates by single year of age from data collected in national censuses. The population estimates for Nigeria are designed to be consistent with the latest available census: the 26 Census, with the structure by age and sex drawn from the 28 DHS survey (UNPD 211a). 3.2 Administrative data on enrolment 55% of girls of primary school age were enrolled in school in 21 according to the latest available UIS data based on administrative records. Data on enrolment were obtained from the database of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), which collects statistics from national statistical authorities in an annual survey. The UIS updates its database three times per year, in January, May and October. The enrolment data for Nigeria 21 in this report are from the May 213 data release of the UIS. 3.3 Household survey data on attendance The source of the school attendance data in this report is the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 28. Household survey data have certain limitations. The DHS 28 is based on a nationally representative sample of the population (sample size: 34,7 households with 15,199 individuals), designed to be representative at the national, zonal and state levels (NPC and ICF Macro, 29). The results of the survey are subject to sampling errors (due to the sample design) and non-sampling errors (for example errors introduced during data processing). Because the DHS covers households, some groups may be under- or not represented, such as refugee, migrant or homeless populations. The number of girls aged 9-13 years in the DHS 28 survey sample is 9,322. Table 3.1 displays the distribution of the target population in the sample by household location and wealth. It also provides the number of cases upon which the subsequent analysis is based. Because the DHS is a sample survey, the following distribution should be considered an approximate, but not an exact, distribution of the target population in Nigeria. Table 3.1 Distribution of girls 9-13 years in survey sample, Nigeria DHS 28 Urban Rural Poorest Middle Richest quintile quintile quintile Second poorest quintile (%) Second richest quintile (%) Total Sample size (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Girls 9-13 years , Limitations of age data Reported age data may also be erroneous because children may lack birth certificates or because the survey respondent may not know the exact age of all household members. Age data may thus exhibit heaping, typical around ages ending in and 5. In the case of the Nigeria DHS 28, the age distribution of women in the survey data is not a close match with the age distribution in population estimates by the 2

3 UN Population Division for the same year (Figure 3.1). Age heaping in the total female survey sample is evident. In the sample of girls 5-17, age heaping can be observed at age 1 (Figure 3.2). Furthermore, survey programmes such as the Demographic and Health Survey and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey are not designed primarily for the collection of data. As a result there is often a gap between the beginning of the school year and the survey collection period. At the time of the survey children can thus be many months older than they were at the beginning of the school year. Where the gap is 6 months or greater, the UIS adjusts the age data backwards by one year (age 1) to minimize the age/grade discrepancy. In the case of the Nigeria DHS 28, this age adjustment was applied, as the gap is 1-15 months. Survey question on current school attendance: Did [NAME] attend school at any time during the (27-8) school year? Start month of the academic year: September Survey collection period: June November 28 Figure 3.1 Age distribution in female sample of Nigeria DHS 28, by single year of age, compared with female age distribution in UN Population Division data for Age (years) UN Population Division DHS Sources: UNPD World Population Prospects 21, Nigeria DHS 28. 3

4 Figure 3.2 Age distribution in sample of girls 5-17 years in Nigeria DHS 28, by single year of age Age (years) 4

5 4. Population estimates Table 4.1 presents UN Population Division estimates of the number of girls aged 9-13 and 9-15 years in Nigeria between 21 and 215. In 213, the number of girls 9-13 years old was estimated at 1.4 million. This number has increased since the beginning of the decade and is projected to continue to grow between 213 and 215. Population estimates in the remaining section of this report are for the year 213. Table 4.1 Nigeria: Female population 9-15 years (1,), by single year of age, Year ,38.6 1, , , , , , , , ,99.7 2,31.5 1, ,94.7 1, ,79.2 1, , , , ,92. 2,24.4 1,96. 1, , ,784. 1, , ,219. 2,152. 2,84.4 2,17.3 1, ,892. 1, , , , ,27.1 2, ,76.8 2,1.2 1, , , , , , , , ,69.1 2,3.1 1,94. 1, ,916.5 Source: UNPD Coverage: Which share of the target population attends school? Table 5.1 explores the basic issue of coverage of the target population of girls 9-13 years. Household survey estimates show the attendance rate to range from 66.% to 76.7%, with the highest attendance rate observed at age 1 and the lowest at age 9. It is important to note that the attendance rate presented here includes attendance in pre-primary, primary, secondary or higher. Children attending nonformal programmes (in surveys which include this category) are considered to be out of school. Table 5.1 Nigeria: Percentage of 9- to 13-year-old girls in school, by single year of age, Age-specific attendance rate Table 5.2 presents the percentage and confidence intervals for 9- to 13-year-old girls who are in school (currently attending pre-primary, primary, secondary or higher ) according to the Nigeria 28 DHS. The confidence interval indicates, generally speaking, that the given range has a 95% probability of containing the true value. These were calculated using Stata statistical software, taking into consideration the clustered sampling design of the DHS. Table 5.2 Percentage of 9- to 13-year-old girls in school, by household characteristics, with 95% confidence intervals, Nigeria, 28 % Girls Aged 9-13 In School 95% CI Lower Bound 95% CI Upper Bound Urban (n=2,655) Rural (n=6,667) Poorest (n=2,131) Second poorest (n=2,112) Middle (n=1,965) Second richest (n=1,675) Richest (n=1,439) Total (n=9,322) Notes: n = number of observations in survey data (female observations 9-13 years in each sub-group). 5

6 6. Equity: Which girls aged 9-13 years are most likely to be in and out of school? 6.1 Summary Based on findings of a DHS, 28.9% of all girls 9-13 were out of school in Nigeria in 28..4% of the girls in this age group attended pre-primary, 47.3% primary, and 23.1% secondary (see Table 6.1 and Figure 6.1). The patterns of school attendance of girls 9-13 in urban and rural areas were different in 28. The outof-school rate was 11.6% in urban areas and 37.% in rural areas. 5.% of urban girls attended primary and 37.7% secondary. Among rural girls, 46.1% attended primary and 16.4% secondary. A comparison of school attendance of girls 9-13 from the richest and poorest household quintiles reveals large disparities. 3.1% of girls from the richest quintile and 66.3% of girls from the poorest quintile were out of school in 28. In the richest quintile, 45.8% attended primary and 5.6% secondary. In the poorest quintile, 29.6% were in primary and 3.5% in secondary. Table 6.1 Nigeria: School attendance by level of (%), girls 9-13 years, 28 Group Total Urban Rural Richest Poorest quintile quintile Pre-primary Tertiary Out of school No data Total Analysis of school attendance by grade shows that the largest percentage of girls 9-13 could be found in primary grade 6 (11.7%), primary grade 5 (11.5%), and primary grade 4 (1.2%) (see Table 6.2 and Figure 6.1). In urban areas, the grade attended by the largest percentage of girls was primary grade 6 (15.%); in rural areas it was primary grade 5 (1.8%). There was a large difference in the pattern of school attendance by grade between girls from the richest and poorest household quintile in Nigeria. Among girls from the richest quintile in school, the most common grade was secondary grade 2 (17.4%). Among girls from the poorest quintile in school, the most common grade was primary grade 3 (6.9%). Tables 6.3 to 6.7 and Figures 6.2 to 6.6 offer more data on school attendance by age, level and grade of 5- to 17-year-old girls in Nigeria. Section 8 provides summary tables of school attendance for the age range

7 Percent Table 6.2 Nigeria: School attendance by level of and grade (%), girls 9-13 years, 28 Group Total Urban Rural Richest Poorest quintile quintile Pre-primary Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Tertiary Out of school No data Total Figure 6.1: School attendance by level and grade, girls 9-13 years, Nigeria Total Urban Rural Richest quintile Poorest quintile Pre-primary Out of school No data Note: Darker shade = lower grade in level, lighter shade = upper grade in level. 7

8 Percent 6.2 All girls Table 6.3 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), all girls 5-17 years, 28 Age (years) Pre-primary Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Tertiary 1.1 Out of school No data Total Figure 6.2 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), all girls 5-17 years, Age (years) Pre-primary Tertiary Out of school No data Note: Darker shade = lower grade in level, lighter shade = upper grade in level. 8

9 Percent 6.3 Girls in urban households Table 6.4 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), urban girls 5-17 years, 28 Age (years) Pre-primary Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Tertiary 2.1 Out of school No data Total Figure 6.3 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), urban girls 5-17 years, Age (years) Pre-primary Tertiary Out of school No data Note: Darker shade = lower grade in level, lighter shade = upper grade in level. 9

10 Percent 6.4 Girls in rural households Table 6.5 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), rural girls 5-17 years, 28 Age (years) Pre-primary Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Tertiary.6 Out of school No data Total Figure 6.4 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), rural girls 5-17 years, Age (years) Pre-primary Tertiary Out of school No data Note: Darker shade = lower grade in level, lighter shade = upper grade in level. 1

11 Percent 6.5 Girls in households from the richest quintile Table 6.6 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), richest girls 5-17 years, 28 Age (years) Pre-primary Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Tertiary 3.3 Out of school No data Total Figure 6.5 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), richest girls 5-17 years, Age (years) Pre-primary Tertiary Out of school No data Note: Darker shade = lower grade in level, lighter shade = upper grade in level. 11

12 Percent 6.6 Girls in households from the poorest quintile Table 6.7 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), poorest girls 5-17 years, 28 Age (years) Pre-primary Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade 6.5 Tertiary Out of school No data Total Figure 6.6 Nigeria: School attendance by age, level and grade (%), poorest girls 5-17 years, Age (years) Pre-primary Tertiary Out of school No data Note: Darker shade = lower grade in level, lighter shade = upper grade in level. 12

13 7. Location: Which levels and grades do girls aged 9-13 attend? 7.1 Summary As seen in Table 2.1, according to the national system, children aged 9-13 should be in grades 4-6 of primary and grades 1-2 of lower secondary. Based on findings of a DHS conducted in Nigeria in 28, the grades girls 9-13 attend are quite similar to the theoretical grades for their age. The grades with the highest shares of the target group are 5 and 6 of primary and grade 1 of lower secondary; more than 7% of the female students attending those grades are 9-13 years old. grade 6 has the highest share of 9-13 year old students (77.4%), followed by grade 5 (72.3%) and grade 1 of lower secondary (71.3%). The age-grade attendance patterns in urban and rural areas were different. Due to late entry into school, repetition or temporary dropout, female students in rural areas aged 9-13 are more likely to attend lower primary grades than their peers in urban areas. The data show that in urban areas, the grade with the highest share (83.%) of 9-13 year old female students is in grade 6, and in rural areas the highest share (74.4%) is in grade 5. A comparison of female students from the richest and poorest household quintiles in Nigeria reveals large disparities in the grades they attend. Female students aged 9-13 from the richest households are most likely to attend grades 6 (82.2%), lower secondary grade 1 (77.5%) and 2 (72.9%). In contrast, female students from the poorest households are most likely to be in grades 5 (72.5%) and 4 (64.7%). Table 7.1 Nigeria: Percentage of female students in each grade who are 9-13 years old, 28 Education (ISCED 1) Education (ISCED 2 and 3) Gr 1 Gr 2 Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Gr 1 Gr 2 Gr 3 Gr 4 Gr 5 Gr 6 Total Urban Rural Richest quintile Poorest quintile Tables 7.2 to 7.6 and Figures 7.1 to 7.5 offer more data on the age of female students in Nigeria by level and grade. 13

14 Percent 7.2 All girls Table 7.2 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), all girls, 28 Education (ISCED 1) Education (ISCED 2 and 3) Age Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total Figure 7.1 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), all girls, Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade Age 9 Age 1 Age 11 Age 12 Age Source: nigeria dhs

15 Percent 7.3 Girls in urban households Table 7.3 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), urban girls, 28 Education (ISCED 1) Education (ISCED 2 and 3) Age Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total Figure 7.2 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), urban girls, Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade Age 9 Age 1 Age 11 Age 12 Age Source: nigeria dhs

16 Percent 7.4 Girls in rural households Table 7.4 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), rural girls, 28 Education (ISCED 1) Education (ISCED 2 and 3) Age Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total Figure 7.3 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), rural girls, Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade Age 9 Age 1 Age 11 Age 12 Age Source: nigeria dhs

17 Percent 7.5 Girls in households from the richest quintile Table 7.5 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), richest girls, 28 Education (ISCED 1) Education (ISCED 2 and 3) Age Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total Figure 7.4 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), richest girls, Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade Age 9 Age 1 Age 11 Age 12 Age Source: nigeria dhs

18 Percent 7.6 Girls in households from the poorest quintile Table 7.6 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), poorest girls, 28 Education (ISCED 1) Education (ISCED 2 and 3) Age Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Total Figure 7.5 Nigeria: Age by level and grade attended (%), poorest girls, Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade Age 9 Age 1 Age 11 Age 12 Age Source: nigeria dhs

19 8. School attendance by age and grade Table 8.1 summarizes school attendance by age grade as a percentage of the female population between 5 and 23 years of age in Nigeria, based on data from the DHS 28. It shows the percentage of girls by single year of age who are in and out of school. Table 8.1 Nigeria: School attendance by age and grade (% of population of single year of age), female population, 28 Preprimary No data Age Tertiary Out of Total Total (years) Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 ed. school (%) (n) ed , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Notes: n = number of observations in survey data (female population 5-23 years per single year of age). 19

20 Table 8.2 summarizes school attendance by age and grade for the female population between 5 and 23 years of age in Nigeria, based on data from the DHS 28. It shows the age distribution of girls in each category of status. Table 8.2 Nigeria: School attendance by age and grade (% of status category), female population, 28 Age Preprimary grade 1 grade 2 grade 3 grade 4 grade 5 grade 6 grade 1 grade 2 grade 3 grade 4 grade 5 grade 6 school Prim Prim Prim Prim Prim Prim Sec Sec Sec Sec Sec Sec Out of Tertiary (years) No data Total (%) Total (n) 61 1,515 2,218 2,45 1,638 1,46 1, ,243 1, , Source: Nigeria DHS 28 Notes: n = number of observations in survey data (female population 5-23 years in each grade or level of ). 2

21 Table 8.3 summarizes school attendance by age and grade in absolute numbers. For this analysis, school attendance rates from the DHS 28 were applied to UNPD population estimates for Nigeria for the year 213. This assumes that attendance rates in 213 are the same as in the most recent year with household survey data. Table 8.3 Nigeria: School attendance by age and grade (1,), female population, 213 Preprimary Age (years) Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 ed , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,47.6 Total , ,167. 2, ,816. 1, , ,26.1 1, , ,13.1 1,19.9 1, , ,639.6 Sources: Attendance rates: Nigeria DHS 28. Population estimates: UNPD World Population Prospects 21. Note: School attendance rates from the DHS 28 were applied to UNDP population estimates for the year 213. Tertiary ed. Out of school No data Total 21

22 9. References National Population Commission (NPC) [Nigeria] and ICF Macro. 29. Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 28. Abuja, Nigeria: National Population Commission and ICF Macro. UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) ISCED 1997 Mappings. Montreal: UIS. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). 26. ISCED 1997: International Standard Classification of Education. Montreal: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. United Nations Population Division. 211a. Data Sources. File -2: Latest Data Sources Used to Derive Estimates for Total Population: World Population Prospects: The 21 Revision. New York: UNPD b. World Population Prospects: The 21 Revision. New York: UNPD. 22