Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
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1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing ch, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 1 Figure 1. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING IN REAL GDP 1 1 Q Q4 4 CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending (yearly percent change) Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics Figure 2. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING ON EQUIPMENT IN REAL GDP Q CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending: Equipment (yearly percent change) Q Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. -3 Page 3 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
3 14 Figure 3. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING ON STRUCTURES IN REAL GDP Q1 1 6 Q4 4 CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending: Structures (yearly percent change) Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics Figure 4. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING ON INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY IN REAL GDP Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending: Intellectual Property (yearly percent change) Q1 Q Page 4 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
4 18 Figure CONSUMER SURVEYS Consumer Confidence Index (198=1, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=1, nsa) CURRENT CONDITIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=1, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=1, nsa) EXPECTATIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=1, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=1, nsa) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Page / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
5 16 14 Figure 6. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (198=1, sa) Under 3 Years Old (116.3) 3 to 4 Years Old (116.1) Years & Over (11.) Source: The Conference Board. 1 1 Figure 7. REAL CONSUMER SPENDING (quarterly percent change, saar) Real Retail Sales Excluding Building Materials* (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) (2.1) Real Consumption Expenditures Less Services (GDP Accounts) (.4) * Retail sales less building materials divided by CPI goods. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 6 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
6 1 Figure 8. REAL RETAIL SALES (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) Total* (2.8) Excluding Building Materials* (2.1) Excluding Autos, Gasoline, Building Materials, and Food Services* (.1) * Deflated by CPI Goods. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page 7 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
7 Figure 9. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS Housing ket Index Single-Family Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS Current Single-Family Sales Index Future Single-Family Sales Index NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department. 1 Page 8 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
8 Figure 1. HOUSING STARTS (million units, saar) Total Single-Family Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau. Figure 11. HOUSING STARTS & LUMBER FUTURES PRICE 2. 4 Random Length Lumber Futures Price* ($/1 board ft) Housing Starts (million units, saar) 3/ * Nearby contract. Source: Census Bureau and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Page 9 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
9 8 Figure 12. NAHB INDEX & S&P HOMEBUILDING NAHB Index 4 S&P Homebuilding Index 3/ Source: Standard & Poor s and National Association of Home Builders Figure 13. NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS (millions, sa) Jan Jan Total Hires (.4) Total Separations (.3) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3. Page 1 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
10 Figure 14. LAYOFFS & QUITS (millions, sa) Jan Quits (3.2) Layoffs (1.6) Jan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 1. QUITS vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 3.4 Jan Consumer Confidence Index (198=1) 3. 1 Quits (millions, sa) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board. 1.4 Page 11 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
11 4 Figure 16. REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES* Composite NY & Philly (=24.6) NY, Philly, and KC (=2.3) NY, Philly, KC, and Dallas (=2.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=23.) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=21.8) New Orders NY and Philly (=3.) NY, Philly, and KC (=2.8) NY, Philly, KC, and Dallas (=22.3) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=22.6) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=22.6) Employment NY and Philly (=13.2) NY, Philly, and KC (=1.) NY, Philly, KC, and Dallas (=9.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas ( (=9.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=1.1) * Production index used in composite index for Dallas region (viewed by Dallas Fed as key measure of manufacturing conditions). Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. -3 Page 12 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
12 1 Figure 17. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MANUFACTURING (12=1) Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 18. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1=1, ratio scale) Leading Economic Indicators (126.2) 8 Coincident Economic Indicators (114.9) Source: The Conference Board. 6 Page 13 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.
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