US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real)

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1 US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) January 9, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8- djohnson@ Mali Quintana 8- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GDP Levels: Nominal & Real GDP & Consumer Spending GDP ex-government GDP Components High vs Low Tech Capital Spending 7 GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real 8 Real US Consumer Spending 9 Real Capital Spending Real Inventories Real Trade Real Government Contributions to GDP Growth Ratios 7 January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

3 Figure. NOMINAL GDP (trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale) GDP Levels: Nominal & Real Figure. REAL GDP (trillion 9 dollars, saar, ratio scale) Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

4 Figure. REAL GDP (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) GDP & Consumer Spending Current data updated thru: III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short -month recovery from July 98 to July 98 is excluded. - Figure. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: (.7) (7.) 99 (8.7) 98 (.8) 97 (.) 97 (.7) 9 (.) III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

5 Figure. GDP ex-government US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING Real GDP (.) Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending (.9) Figure. REAL GDP EX GOVERNMENT (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: 7 9 (7.) (.) 99 (.9) 98 (8.9) 97 (.) 97 (9.) 9 (7.) 9 - III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

6 9 8 7 Figure 7. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion 9 dollars, saar) Total GDP Components PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT Equipment Intellectual Property Products PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT: STRUCTURES Total Goods Total Structures PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Services TRADE Exports Imports PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT SPENDING 8 8 Federal State & Local Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

7 Figure 8. High vs Low Tech Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) High Tech Information Processing & Equipment/Software Computers & Peripheral Equipment Low Tech Equipment Total* Industrial Equipment ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: MGDPNRSOFT COMPOSE command attempted on missing data Other Information Processing Equipment :8: Transportation Equipment Other Equipment** * Industrial equipment, transportation equipment, and other equipment. ** Furniture & fixtures, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, mining & oilfield machinery, service industry machinery, electrical equipment. 7 Page 7 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

8 Figure 9. GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real US NOMINAL GDP Total (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. US REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is % "stall speed." Page 8 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

9 7 Figure. Real US Consumer Spending PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP Total Dec Dec Durables Nondurables Services Dec Page 9 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

10 Figure. Real Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

11 Figure. INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP (billion 9 dollars, saar) MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE Real Inventories RETAIL EX AUTOS RETAIL AUTOS Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

12 Figure. Real Trade NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) Figure. EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP Exports Imports Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

13 Figure 7. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP Real Government Total (.7) FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal (.) STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING State & Local (.) Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

14 Contributions to GDP Growth Figure 8. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) Durable Goods (.) Nondurable Goods (.7) Services (.8) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

15 - Figure 9. Contributions to GDP Growth REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) Nonresidential Investment (.8) Structures (.) Equipment & Software (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Change In Nonfarm Inventories (-.7) Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

16 8 - - Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) Exports of Goods & Services (.8) Imports of Goods & Services (-.) Federal Government Spending (.) State & Local Government Spending (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

17 7 Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) Ratios Figure. REVENUES & EXPENDITURES 8 Federal Revenues (as a percent of nominal GDP) Federal Expenditures (as a percent of nominal GDP) 8 Q Page 7 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

18 Copyright (c) 8. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@

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