US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real)
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1 US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) January 9, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8- djohnson@ Mali Quintana 8- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GDP Levels: Nominal & Real GDP & Consumer Spending GDP ex-government GDP Components High vs Low Tech Capital Spending 7 GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real 8 Real US Consumer Spending 9 Real Capital Spending Real Inventories Real Trade Real Government Contributions to GDP Growth Ratios 7 January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
3 Figure. NOMINAL GDP (trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale) GDP Levels: Nominal & Real Figure. REAL GDP (trillion 9 dollars, saar, ratio scale) Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
4 Figure. REAL GDP (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) GDP & Consumer Spending Current data updated thru: III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short -month recovery from July 98 to July 98 is excluded. - Figure. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: (.7) (7.) 99 (8.7) 98 (.8) 97 (.) 97 (.7) 9 (.) III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
5 Figure. GDP ex-government US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING Real GDP (.) Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending (.9) Figure. REAL GDP EX GOVERNMENT (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: 7 9 (7.) (.) 99 (.9) 98 (8.9) 97 (.) 97 (9.) 9 (7.) 9 - III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
6 9 8 7 Figure 7. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion 9 dollars, saar) Total GDP Components PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT Equipment Intellectual Property Products PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT: STRUCTURES Total Goods Total Structures PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Services TRADE Exports Imports PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT SPENDING 8 8 Federal State & Local Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
7 Figure 8. High vs Low Tech Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) High Tech Information Processing & Equipment/Software Computers & Peripheral Equipment Low Tech Equipment Total* Industrial Equipment ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: MGDPNRSOFT COMPOSE command attempted on missing data Other Information Processing Equipment :8: Transportation Equipment Other Equipment** * Industrial equipment, transportation equipment, and other equipment. ** Furniture & fixtures, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, mining & oilfield machinery, service industry machinery, electrical equipment. 7 Page 7 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
8 Figure 9. GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real US NOMINAL GDP Total (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. US REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is % "stall speed." Page 8 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
9 7 Figure. Real US Consumer Spending PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP Total Dec Dec Durables Nondurables Services Dec Page 9 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
10 Figure. Real Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
11 Figure. INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP (billion 9 dollars, saar) MANUFACTURING WHOLESALE Real Inventories RETAIL EX AUTOS RETAIL AUTOS Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
12 Figure. Real Trade NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) Figure. EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP Exports Imports Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
13 Figure 7. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP Real Government Total (.7) FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal (.) STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING State & Local (.) Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
14 Contributions to GDP Growth Figure 8. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) Durable Goods (.) Nondurable Goods (.7) Services (.8) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
15 - Figure 9. Contributions to GDP Growth REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) Nonresidential Investment (.8) Structures (.) Equipment & Software (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Change In Nonfarm Inventories (-.7) Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
16 8 - - Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) Exports of Goods & Services (.8) Imports of Goods & Services (-.) Federal Government Spending (.) State & Local Government Spending (.) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
17 7 Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) Ratios Figure. REVENUES & EXPENDITURES 8 Federal Revenues (as a percent of nominal GDP) Federal Expenditures (as a percent of nominal GDP) 8 Q Page 7 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
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