Drop Outs and Push Outs: No More Missing Halves? Keith M Lewin Emeritus Professor of International Development University of Sussex

Transcription

1 Drop Outs and Push Outs: No More Missing Halves? Keith M Lewin Emeritus Professor of International Development University of Sussex School Drop Out Prevention Summit Washington DC September 215

2 Drop Outs and Push Outs No More Missing Halves? Mapping the Zones of Inclusion and Exclusion Access, Equity, Achievement and Drop Out Crossing the Threshold to Exclusion Strategies to Reduce Drop Out and Push Out

3 Magnitudes of Exclusion and Inclusion How many children are excluded, and silently excluded GMR estimates 58 million out of school (9%+ in school) 5% of OOSCI are in SSA If lower secondary is part of basic education 12 million+ If attendance averages only 85% then > 2 million+ If 15%+ are seriously over age then >28 million+ If < 75% reach achievement norms then > 35 million+ Numbers without Meaningful Access may be 35 million? The excluded (drop outs/push outs) are disproportionately: Poor, female in some locations, socially/ethnically/linguistically excluded, with disability, older, remote, rural, urban migrants, displaced, illiterate, in fragile States. Those who started and did not finish school often outnumber those never enrolled Inclusion is both a supply and demand side problem. It is inseparable from equity and distribution issues.

4 Zones of Inclusion and Exclusion Drop Outs and Push Outs at Different Levels Zone O No Pre- School % Participating Zone 1 Never Enrol Unlikely to Enrol Should Enrol No Access Zone 2 Primary Drop Outs Zone 3 At Risk Overage, Low Attenders and Achievers No Access CREATE Zones of Exclusion k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk Zone 4 Primary Leavers Zone 5 Drop Outs No Access 2 1 Zone 6 At Risk At Risk Secure, Attendance and Achievement Access Primary Grades Lower Secondary Grades

5 Z o n e 25 2 Zone 1 Zone 2 Bangladesh Age/Grade Population Zone Charts P r e s c h o o l Zone 4 Zone 3 Silent Exclusion Zone 5 Zone 6 Secure with Meaningful Learning Boys Girls k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk Grade India Z o n e P r e s c h o o l Zone 1 Zone 3 Zone 2 Silent Exclusion Zone 4 Zone 6 Secure with Meaningful Learning Grade Zone 5 Age/Grade Population Boys Girls

6 9, 8, 7, by Grade and Drop Out- Asia Cambodia 1,4, 1,2, Myanmar , 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, - G1 G1 G2 G2 G3 G3 G4 G4 G5 G5 G6 G6 G7 (S1) G7 G8 (S2) G8 G9 (S3) G9 G1 (S4) G1 G11 (S5) k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk G11 G12 (S6) Nepal G AgeGrade AgeGrade 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, - 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 (S1) G7 (S2) G8 (S3) G9 (S4) G1 (S5) Grade - G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G11 (S6) Pakistan G1 G11 G Age Grade Population Age Grade k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk

7 by Grade and Drop Out Uganda Tanzania Malawi Ethiopia

8 s by Grade Full Australia Grade Japan Grade k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk

9 Access, Equity, Drop Out and Push Out Girls and boys from the richest 2% are more than 6 times as likely to be in grade 9 as the poorest 2% in SSA and South Asia. Less than 5% complete lower secondary successfully in SSA. 95% will reach Grade 9 in China but less than 5% in India. Many receive < 15 days schooling a year, and < four hours a day on task. Attendance may be less than 6%. More than one third of children are overage by two years or more. Overage correlates with low achievement and drop out Girls are more likely to be out of school in low income countries: higher enrolment countries have more girls than boys enrolled Less than 1% of schools provide more than 8% of university entrants in most countries in SSA, especially in STEM In PISA achievement differences = six years between countries and up to seven years within countries. No private school effects

10 In School Zones, Age and Exclusion Never Enrol Out of School

11 by Grade 45 and Age India AP CHHATTISGARH Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade UTTAR PRADESH Age and Indian States Grad Grad Grad Grad Grad Grad Grad Grad < > Age < > 16 Age MADYHA PRADESH 12 1 AP AP ANDHRA PRADESH s Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade Gra Gra Gra Gra Gra Gra Gra Gra < > 16 < > 16-1 Age -2 Age k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk

12 s by Age and Grade - Africa Uganda 1,2, 1,, Tanzania Age G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 8, 6, 4, 2, Age G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk Age Malawi G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G Age Ethiopia k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8

13 of Boys and Girls by Age Africa Overall More Boys than Girls More Girls More Girls Botswana Lesotho Mauritius Namibia Swaziland Uganda Zanzibar Kenya Malawi Mozambique South Africa Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe More Boys Boys Girls Age in Years k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk

14 % Achieving Score Pisa Maths Positive and Negative Skews? Kazakhstan Argentina Qatar Tunisia Brazil Peru Jordan Columbia Indonesia Kyrgystan OECD average < >669 Score k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk

15 Pisa Maths Six Patterns of Performance Drop Out or Push Out? 6 Positive Skew More low performers Negative Skew More high performers 2 1 k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk

16 Conceptualising Exclusion Demand Supply Individual characteristics and agency Household Characteristics and Agency Equitable Access and Meaningful Learning Community social, economic, and political School quality, process and outcomes District educational governance and resources Equity Mobility Transitions Distribution Poverty Reduction Growth

17 Temporary and Permanent Exits Supply or Demand failures? Eric Ananga

18 Mapping the Zones Some of the Causes of Exclusion

19 Identifying the Strategies Establish amount of exclusion in each Zone and Chart recent changes Number + % of children by poverty/gender/ location/social group; likely amount in 215, 22? Assess characteristics of excluded household status, age, birth order, gender, education level, livelihood status etc; Analyse and judge causalities and locate responsibilities Identify and evaluate existing interventions to reduce numbers never enrolled, dropping out and Silently Excluded and to encourage re-entry Identify policy options by Zone and develop Policy Dialogue Project costs, resource implications and non financial constraints; profile implementation, timelines, accountabilities...

20 The Expanded Vision of Access and Inclusion Meaningful Learning Meaningful and managed learning and achievement Entry, progression and completion at appropriate ages All day attendance on all school days Normal health and nutrition Infrastructure + appropriate learning environment pedagogy / curriculum / teachers / facilities Next level access to education and training up to grade 12 Greater equity + less variation in quantity + quality of inputs

21 Zones of Inclusion and Exclusion from Education Under 6 years of age Zone Excluded from pre-school and ECD Children without access to pre school and ECD Zone 1 Not enrolled in grade 1 Children unlikely to enrol in normal schools Cross Cutting Issues Poverty Gender Location Disabilities Orphans Social protection Pedagogies Language Child labour Resources Infrastructure Fragile States Primary age children Zone 2 Primary drop-outs Drop Outs from Primary Zone 3 Primary enrolled, risk of drop out Over age Low attendance Low achievement Silent exclusion Adolescents Zone 4 No transition to lower secondary Primary leavers No transition to lower secondary Livelihoods and well being k.m.lewin@sussex.ac.uk Zone 5 Lower secondary drop-outs Zone 6 Lower secondary enrolled, Drop Outs from Secondary risk of drop out Over age Low attendance Low achievement Silent exclusion

22 Planning to Make Rights Realities IIEP 215 Publcation

23 Drop Outs and Push Outs: No More Missing Halves? Keith M Lewin Emeritus Professor of International Development University of Sussex School Drop Out Prevention Summit Washington DC September 215