Rose Tree Media School District. Enrollment and Demographic Study. February Prepared By. Montgomery Educational Consultants, Inc

Transcription

1 February 2016 Prepared By Montgomery Educational Consultants, Inc

2 MONTGOMERY EDUCATIONAL CONSULTANTS, Inc Covert Court Educational Advisors and Facility Planner Glen Mills, PA ENROLLMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY Prepared for THE BOARD OF SCHOOL DIRECTORS OF THE ROSE TREE MEDIA SCHOOL DISTRICT William O'Donnell, Board President Susan Nolen, Board Vice President Tracy Barusevicius Jaclyn Clancy James Cunningham Jeff Koenig Nancy Mackrides Harry Postles Elizabeth Schneider THE ROSE TREE MEDIA SCHOOL DISTRICT ADMINISTRATION TEAM James M. Wigo, Sr., Superintendent Grace Eves, Director of Management Services Patti Linden, Director of Technology and Information Science 1

3 Table of Contents Introduction 3 Executive Summary 4 Township Trends 8 Capacities 10 Enrollment Projections 10 New Developments 15 Glenwood Elementary School Boundary 17 Brick House Farm Granite Run Apartments Middletown Commons Ponds Edge Sleighton School Indian Lane Elementary School Boundary 23 Reserve at Rose Tree Media Elementary School Boundary 25 Garfield Place Jefferson Square Townhomes West End Flats West End Walk Rose Tree Boundary 30 Halcyon Runnymede Farm Appendix 33 Montgomery Educational Consultants 2

4 Introduction The Rose Tree Media School District encompasses approximately 30 square miles, and is in Delaware County, PA. The School District is comprised of three townships, Edgmont, Middletown, Upper Providence and the Borough of Media. The School District has one high school, one middle school, four kindergarten to fifth grade elementary schools along with an administrative, transportation and maintenance buildings. Due to large parcels of land purchased for residential development, an enrollment projection and demographic study on the impact of the new homes is necessary to ensure the District can adequately plan for future student capacity needs. This report will provide base information on the School District, it s building capacities, enrollment history, and current housing trends. It will include extensive knowledge on the planned new residential communities, and how those communities will affect the neighborhood schools. Montgomery Educational Consultants would like to thank the many people in each department of the School District who contributed to the enrollment projection and demographic study assessment report. We especially wish to thank James Wigo Sr, Grace Eves, and Mack Johnson for their contributions to the study and for their quick turnaround time on all requests. Montgomery Educational Consultants 3

5 Executive Summary The historic student enrollment in the Rose Tree Media School District has shown a declin e in student enrollment over the past years. In the past 10 years the School District has decreased by 137 students from the beginning of the 2006/07 school year (4,036 students) to the beginning of 2015/16 school year (3,899 student). This enrollment trend reflects the live birth data where there s been an overall decrease in live births within the School District. * Note that student enrollment includes students in an approved private school, Elwyn, and IU placement. There a 6 locally listed private and parochial schools that service students in the immediate Rose Tree Media area. Each school has had a stable and consistent enrollment over the past years. The schools listed are: Media/Upper Providence Friends, The School in Rose Valley, Waldron School, St Francis DeSales, St John Chrysostom, and St Mary Magdalen. It is expected that housing trends in the Rose Tree Media School District will grow over the next ten years. A number of new residential developments in the area, two over 250 units, will have an impact on the number of live births. This will translate into an increase of new students being born in the School District as well as school aged students moving into the area. The major new developments are listed below, with relevant information on how they will affect the local neighborhood school. The calculated student totals represent the result of a formula that incorporates unit type, location, unit cost, access to private schools, and geographic area. For most new developments some families moving in will have school aged students that will immediately enroll while a percentage will be too young for school. Glenwood Elementary School Boundary Brickhouse Farm Brickhouse Farm is located at Valley Rd and Route 353, within the catchment area of the Glenwood Elementary School. The development is located in Edgemont and consists of 35 single family homes. All of the homes are sold and all but two are occupied. Based on a price range of $1,000,000, a school age factor of 0.30 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 10 additional students could attend Glenwood. Granite Run Apartments Granite Run apartments are located at Middletown Route 352, on the site of the Granite Run Mall. It is located within the catchment area of the Glenwood Elementary School. Located within Middleton, the development will have 385 upscale apartments, 220 one bedroom and 165 two bedroom. The developer expects the average rent to be $1,600 per month. The Montgomery Educational Consultants 4

6 apartments will be age targeted but not age restricted. Township approved the preliminary plans but no final plans have been submitted. There is no construction start date for the apartments. Based on the rent for the apartments, a school age factor of 0.05 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 19 additional students could attend Glenwood. Middletown Commons (aka Franklin Mint) Middletown Commons (aka Franklin Mint) is a development located on the former Franklin Mint site, with an entrance to the Mint off Baltimore Pike in Media, PA. It is located within the catchment area of Glenwood Elementary School. Located within Media, the development will have 350 townhomes. The project is pre approved but no final presentation has been given by the township. Housing design and pricing has yet to be decided. The developer states he expects to begin construction in the middle of The township stated they expect no construction to begin before January The Realtor for the developer stated they would like to begin the commercial work prior to the residential construction. Based on a price range of $450,000 a school age factor of 0.20 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 70 additional students could attend Glenwood. Ponds Edge Ponds Edge is located in Middletown, on West Baltimore Pike across from the Thomas Chevrolet site. It is located within the catchment area of Glenwood Elementary School. The development is planned to have 221 townhomes. The tentative construction approval was granted in The developer needs to address 22 building conditions before final approval is granted. The developer must set aside $600,000 for a traffic study and what money is not spent goes to the township for road improvement. Based on a price range of $400,000 $450,000 a school age factor of 0.20 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 44 additional students could attend Glenwood. Sleighton School The Sleighton School property is located in both Middletown and Edgmont townships on West Forge and Valley roads. It is located within the catchment area of Glenwood Elementary School. This community is an age restricted, 55 or over townhomes that has been tentatively approved by Edgmont. Middletown Council did not approved building on the 106 acres that are in that Montgomery Educational Consultants 5

7 township. The property is for sale by Elwyn School but no developer to date has bought the land. Based on the age restricted usage, no students are expected to attend Glenwood. Indian Lane Elementary School Boundary Reserve at Rose Tree The Reserve at Rose Tree is a located in Middletown on Baltimore Pike across from Elwyn School. It is located within the catchment area of Indian Lane Elementary School. The development will have 112 townhomes. Nine units have been sold to date. The sale price has a range of $450,000 $550,000. The expected completion of the development is the middle of The expected sold out date is 2018/2019. The developer is building at a pace dependent on sales of the units. Based on a sale price range $500,000, a school age factor of 0.20 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 23 additional students could attend Indian Lane. Media Elementary School Boundary Garfield Place Garfield Place is located in Upper Providence township on Manchester Ave and Garfield Place. It is located within the catchment area of Media Elementary School. Garfield Place development has 6 single family homes and was completed in late 2014 and all homes are sold and occupied. Based on a sale price range from $600,000, a school age factor of 0.40 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 3 additional students could attend Media. Jefferson Square Townhomes The Jefferson Square Townhomes is located on East Jefferson St, located in Media. It is located within the catchment area of Media Elementary School. This development has 26 duplex units. Three units have sold. The range of sale price is $400,000 $450,000. Completion of these townhomes is expected middle of The expected sold out date is the end of 2016/2017. Based on a sale price range $425,000 and the units being duplexes, a school age factor of 0.20 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 6 additional students could attend Media. West End Flats Montgomery Educational Consultants 6

8 West End Flats are located in Media at 422 West Baltimore Pike. It is located within the catchment area of Media Elementary School. West End Flats is a development of 161 apartments that are described as upscale. The developer is Cornerstone Communities. Preliminary plans were submitted to the Borough in May. Final plans have not been submitted and no approval has come from the Borough. The developer states that rental cost will be inline with other upscale apartments in the area. Based on a rental price range of $1600, a school age factor of.07 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 12 additional students could attend Media. West End Walk West End Walk is located across from West End Flats in Media. It is located within the catchment area of Media Elementary School. West End Walk is a development of 25 townhomes. Preliminary plans were submitted to Borough in April. The Borough stated that there were too many units for approval. There is no pricing of the units and the developer, Acadia Developers, is not the same person as West End Flats. Based on an estimated sale price range $450,000 a school age factor of 0.20 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 5 additional students could attend Media. Rose Tree Elementary School Boundary Halcyon Halcyon is located in Edgmont along North Route 352, just entering the township. It is located within the catchment area of Rose Tree Elementary School. This is a development of 22 single family homes. The tentative construction approval was granted in 2004, but no final plans were submitted for final approval. There s no indication as to why the developer has not moved on the project. Based on a price range of $600,000, a school age factor of 0.40 was utilized. This equates to an estimated 9 additional students could attend Rose Tree. Runnymeade Farms Runnymeade Farms is a development located in Edgmont township. It is located within the catchment area of Rose Tree Elementary School. Montgomery Educational Consultants 7

9 This development includes 292 mid rise apartments and 32 single family homes. The project is awaiting approval for sewer capacity from the Sewer Authority. No plans have been submitted to the township. The project will continue to be monitored. Based on a rental price of $2000 equates to 21 students, and for a single family home sale price of $500,000, a school age factor of 0.40 equates to 13 students. This equates to an estimated 44 additional students could attend Rose Tree. Township and Borough Trends The population trend of the townships and the Borough, that comprise the School District, have experienced a decline in growth since the 2000 census. The total population of the three townships in 2000 was 36,024, and in the 2010 census it was 35,263, a decrease of 761 citizens. Edgmont Township increased by 69, while Middletown, Upper Providence, and Media overall population decreased by 830. The assumption in the decrease in population is that empty nesters remained in the School District after their school age children moved away, and a slight decrease in live births in the past 10 years. Characteristics of the Population for New Housing The housing trend in the Rose Tree Media School District is expected to grow with the advent of new housing developments which are either in construction or the planning stage. Two housing projects are under construction, five developments have pre approval, two preliminary planning, two projects are completed, and one is an age restricted project. Different housing types generate school children at very different rates. A larger single family home normally houses more school age children. The denser a multi family development is the less school age children. Single family detached homes become the biggest burden on local school districts, Montgomery County Planning Commission, January, 2012 A housing factor of school age students to a development was utilized based on the price range of the housing development and the type of home. A student factor of 0.40 was utilized for a single family home, 0.20 for a townhome, and 0.07 for an upscale apartment. Single Family homes equated to 32 students, townhomes equates to 148, and apartments to 52 students for a total of 232 additional students. We project that the new housing developments will result in an additional 232 public school students in their corresponding neighborhood elementary schools of Glenwood, Indian Lane, Media and Rose Tree. The increase in the number of students will primarily take effect between the 2018 and 2021 school years. Glenwood and Rose Tree Schools will be the most affected by the new housing. We expect that the middle and high school, due to being able to roster and student capacity, will have sufficient space to handle the increase in enrollment at those grade levels. Montgomery Educational Consultants 8

10 Available student capacity in the elementary schools will decrease and class size will increase as students from the new developments arrive. The Rose Tree Media School District will inevitably be unable to add additional educational programs, increase ELL or special education services, add Kindergarten students, reduces class size, or add new educational programs. Initially in order to maintain the present educational programs, over the next four to five years, the School District should review and possibly consider boundary changes. However we expect that no boundary change will be needed until the start of the 2017/2018 school year. A follow up review of the new housing developments should take place in mid 2016/17 to ascertain the construction status and the number of housing units approved by the townships. The follow up study will determine the need of a boundary change. Montgomery Educational Consultants 9

11 Capacities The following capacity information and enrollment data was provided by the School District and reflects the enrollment from October 1, PDE Rated Capacity Classroom Calc. Cap.* Classroom Calc. 90%** 2015/16 Enrollment Utilization Avail. Seats Glenwood % 134 Indian Lane % 86 Media % 69 Rose Tree % 19 The Pennsylvania Department of Education (PDE) utilizes a capacity formula to determine the education capacity for school buildings. This is the official capacity utilized for the building. * Using actual room counts, a classroom capacity was calculated using 20 students for kindergarten rooms and 23 for full sized classrooms. Capacity was not reduced for MG, SPE, or ESL and no capacity was assigned to Small Learning Rooms (SLR). All of the schools have a stand alone Art, Music, Science, Computer Lab, and Gym ** Typically, building are not filled to capacity, but allow space to expand and future needs. Rose Tree School presently has the greatest percentage of students to capacity. It has one new development within its school boundaries. Rose Tree will not be able to add new educational programs, ELL or special education classes without adding student capacity or increasing class size. A possibility is special education classes being served at other schools. Glenwood, Indian Lane and Media Schools presently have available seats, however they will experience the same growth as Rose Tree when the new housing is in process. Enrollment Projections Montgomery Educational Consultants, in cooperation with ATI Incorporated, performed a school by school, and ten year district enrollment projection. The methodology used on projecting enrollments is the recommended method by demographers and the PA Department of Education known as Cohort Survival Method. Cohort Survival projections are based on historical enrollment data and birthrates in the individual schools within the school district. Montgomery Educational Consultants 10

12 Starting with the Cohort Survival values, additional variables were included to produce a weighted result. Local demographics, new developments, changes to private and parochial schools, and extensive review of live births all contribute to changes in projections. Live Births Live births were provided by the State of Pennsylvania s Department of Health and Vital Statistics. The values are aggregated to the municipality level, but are provided by month. The most recent year s data, 2014, has not been formally finalized and is still considered an estimate. The data was not utilized in it s native format, using the calendar year. Rather, since the data was provided by month, the actual months associated with a school year were used to compile a value more representative of the ages of the students by grade. Live birth data shows that while there were some high birth rates in the late 90s, the last 13 years have seen relatively consistent birth rates in the area. We estimate that this trend will continue with the added adjustment that the new developments will contribute over the new several years. Montgomery Educational Consultants 11

13 Comparison of Live Births to Kindergarten and First Grade Enrollments The number of incoming kindergarten and first grade students typically corresponds directly to the number of births five and six years earlier. The chart below takes the students born in a specific school year (blue line) and compares them to the same students when they enter kindergarten (purple line) as well as when those same students enter 1st grade (yellow line). The vertical lines represent the split between actual and projected values. This is different for each data series since students born will enter kindergarten 5 years later and first grade 6 years after birth. The benefit of showing the same cohort of students when they were born and when they enter kindergarten and first grade in a single column allows a pattern to emerge. The pattern shows that the student population in RTMSD closely follows the number of live births in the area. Of other interesting note is that in some years, the actual number of students enrolled in first grade exceed the number of live births 5 years earlier. Montgomery Educational Consultants 12

14 District Enrollments The following two charts show the projected enrollment for the District. The first chart factors the live birth rate, enrollment trends, and allows for a moderate increase in students due to the new developments. Enrollment Projects with Moderate Students Attending from New Developments Full documentation of enrollment projection number for the District and individual schools can be found in the Appendix. Montgomery Educational Consultants 13

15 The second chart shows the estimated maximum number of students (based on a student factor, type of unit, location, and price range) from the new developments. Enrollment Projections Showing the Estimated Maximum Number of Students from New Developments As noted in the review of new residential developments, there are a number of new developments being constructed over the next 5 years that will produce student age children. The increase in enrollment will start gradual as families moving in will have a percentage of children that will directly enroll in their neighborhood school. However, as more developments are completed, that number will increase. Additionally, over time, these same developments will be enrolling students at kindergarten and they will continue through the system. Montgomery Educational Consultants 14

16 New Developments The School District will begin seeing an increase in student enrollments once the new housing developments near completion. The student increase will be most noticed at Glenwood and Indian Lane Elementary Schools. Once the housing developments are completed, the District s enrollment will stabilize. It s expected that enrollment will stabilize by the 2022 school year. assuming Middletown Commons housing is developed by this date. The greatest affect the new developments will have on the School District is a lack of educational spaces if the District wishes to increase educational offerings. Programs such as ELL, special education, STEM, reduce class size, and all day kindergarten would not be able to be offered due to the lack of classroom and ancillary spaces. There are new developments that will contribute students to the District. The following pages show an extensive analysis of these developments along with construction information, maps, and site plans. New Residential Developments and Elementary School Boundary Areas Montgomery Educational Consultants 15

17 New Residential Developments and Municipality Boundaries Montgomery Educational Consultants 16

18 Glenwood Elementary School Boundary Montgomery Educational Consultants 17

19 Name Developer Brick House Farms Glen White Homes Address Route 352 N and Valley Rd Newtown Sq PA Unit Type Unit Number Units Sold Unit Cost Single family homes 35 homes All sold and all but two occupied $1,000,000 and up Completed 2015 Elementary School Enrollment Analysis Glenwood ES Higher end single family homes, all sold. Montgomery Educational Consultants 18

20 Name Developer Granite Run Mall Apartments BET Investments Address West Baltimore Pike, Media, PA Unit Type Unit Number Units Rented Unit Cost 385 Apartments 220 one bedrooms. 165 two bedrooms None To Be Determined Completed Expected 2018/2019 Elementary School Enrollment Analysis Glenwood Granite Run Mall Apartments does not expect to have an enrollment impact on Glenwood School. The apartments are being marketed as upscale units and not targeting families with school age children. Montgomery Educational Consultants 19

21 Name Developer Address Elementary School Enrollment Analysis Middletown Commons AKA Franklin Mint McKee Group Entrance to Franklin Mint, off of W. Baltimore Pike Media, PA Glenwood MIDDLETOWN COMMONS, located ON BALTIMORE PK is a proposed townhome development of 350 units. The project has pre approval but final plans have not been submitted to Middletown Township. The developer expects to start construction in mid The Township stated no construction is expected before Middletown Commons Site Plan Montgomery Educational Consultants 20

22 Name Developer Address Unit Type Ponds Edge Attorney Joe Riper representative for developer Middletown Township across Baltimore Pk. at Thomas Chevrolet Media PA Townhomes Unit Number 221 Units Sold Townhome project is tentatively approved but no final plans have been submitted to Middletown Township. No date has been set for submittal. Unit Cost Projected tentatively at $400,000 to $450,000 Completed Expected late 2019/2020 Elementary School Enrollment Analysis Glenwood POND EDGE, located off Baltimore Pike, at Thomas Chevrolet, is in the preliminary planning stage. The development will be 221 townhomes. The developer needs to meet 22 Township conditions before construction can begin. One condition is to do $600,000 in traffic study and repairs. If not all the money is used the remaining money goes to the Township. Ponds Edge could have an impact on Glenwood ES due to their initial costs and proximity to the school. Montgomery Educational Consultants 21

23 Name Developer Address Unit Type Unit Number Sleighton School Elwyn School Represented by their attorney No actual builder approved to date Age restricted townhomes 150 proposed Units Rented 0 Unit Cost Completed Elementary School unknown Seeking final approval from Middletown Glenwood Enrollment Analysis 0 Montgomery Educational Consultants 22

24 Indian Lane Elementary School Boundary Montgomery Educational Consultants 23

25 Name Developer Address Unit Type Reserve at Rose Tree Ryland Homes 1025 E Baltimore Pk. Media Pa Townhomes Unit Number 112 Units Sold 9 Unit Cost $450,000 to $550,000 Completed Expected 2017/2018 Elementary School Notes Enrollment Analysis Indian Lane Developer is building new units as present units are sold RESERVE AT ROSE TREE, has sold 9 units. The development is under construction and homes built are occupied. The development could be conducive to school age children due to playing fields and large open space for playgrounds. Montgomery Educational Consultants 24

26 Media Elementary School Boundary Montgomery Educational Consultants 25

27 Name Developer Address Unit Type Garfield Place Garfield Associates Manchester and Garfield Place, Media, PA Single family homes Units Sold 6 Unit Cost $600,000 Completed 2014 Elementary School Media Enrollment Analysis 3 Montgomery Educational Consultants 26

28 Name Developer Address Unit Type Jefferson Square Townhomes Mcgill Homes 218 E. Jefferson St Media, PA Townhomes Unit Number 26 Units Sold 3 Unit Cost $400,000 $450,000 Completed Expected by Mid 2016, sales should be to the end of Elementary School Enrollment Analysis Media Elementary Jefferson Square is a 26 unit townhome development being built in Media. This project is under construction and completion is expected in mid The townhomes are a tacked duplex housing, and an elevator is needed to reach the top units. starting at $400,000. Montgomery Educational Consultants 27

29 Name Developer Address Unit Type West End Flats Cornerstone Communities 422 West Baltimore Pike Media, PA 1 and 2 Bedroom Apartments Unit Number 161 Units Sold 0 Unit Cost Est. $1600 to $2200 Completed Elementary School Unknown Media Enrollment Analysis 12 Montgomery Educational Consultants 28

30 Name Developer Address Unit Type West End Walk Arcadia Developers 421 West Baltimore Pike Media, PA Townhomes Unit Number 25 Units Sold 0 Unit Cost $450,000 $500,000 Completed Elementary School unknown Media Enrollment Analysis 5 Montgomery Educational Consultants 29

31 Rose Tree Elementary School Boundary Montgomery Educational Consultants 30

32 Name Developer Address Unit Type Halcyon Unknown Rt 352 North just entering into Edgmont Township Single Family homes Unit Number 22 Units Sold 0 Unit Cost $600,000 in 2004 Completed Elementary School Unknown Rose Tree Enrollment Analysis 9 Montgomery Educational Consultants 31

33 Name Developer Address Unit Type Unit Number Runnymeade Farms Runnymeade Associates, Runnymeade Farm and Providence Rd Edgmont, PA Apartments Single Family Homes 292 Apartments 32 Single Family Homes Units Sold 0 Unit Cost Completed Elementary School unknown Unknown Rose Tree Enrollment Analysis = 44 Montgomery Educational Consultants 32

34 Appendix Map: Elementary School Boundary Areas with Students (2015/16) Chart: Enrollment History for the District (1999/00 to 2015/16) Map: Proposed New Developments with Municipality Map: Proposed New Developments with Elementary School Boundaries Chart: Live Birth Counts 1991 to 2014 Chart: Comparison of Live Births to Kindergarten and 1st Grade Enrollments Table: Enrollment History and 10 Year Enrollment Projections for the District Chart: 10 Year Enrollment Projections for the District Chart: 10 Year Enrollment Projections for the District with New Housing Effect Tables: 5 Year Enrollment Projections for each School Montgomery Educational Consultants 33

35 Elementary School Students ( ) ' 252 ' 3 ' 3 ' 3 ' 252 ' 352 " Springton Lake MS " Rose Tree ES ' 352 " Penncrest HS 1 Media ES ' 252 " 1 Glenwood ES " " Indian Lane ES ' 252 ' 352 Glenwood ES Indian Lane ES Media ES Rose Tree ES " Elementary School " Middle School " High School ES Boundaries Miles

36 Enrollment History for Rose Tree Media School District 4,500 4,000 4,179 4,193 4,170 4,157 4,176 4,137 4,129 4,036 4,004 3,993 3,874 3,844 3,937 3,958 3,903 3,937 3,899 3,500 Enrollment 3,000 2,500 2,000 School Year

37 Current and Proposed Residential Developments ' 252 ' 3 ' 3 ' 3 Runnymeade Farms XW ' 252 XW EDGMONT Brick House Farm XW Halcyon XW Sleighton School ' 352 Penncrest HS " 1 MEDIA Media ES Reserve at Rose Tree XW XW West End Walk " West End Flats Granite Run Mall JeffersonXW XWXW XW Garfield Place MIDDLETOWN 1 XW Ponds Edge Glenwood ES ' 252 Indian Lane ES Middle Town Commons XW " " " Springton Lake MS UPPER PROVIDENCE Rose Tree ES " ' 352 XW Developments " Elementary School " Middle School " High School Municipalities Miles

38 Current and Proposed Residential Developments ' 252 ' 3 ' 3 ' 3 XW Runnymeade Farms 362 Units No Start Date ' 252 XW Brick House Farm 35 Single Homes Completed XW XW Halcyon 21 Single Homes No Start Date Sleighton School 133 Singles, Age Restricted No Start Date Penncrest HS Reserve at Rose Tree " ' 112 Townhomes Jefferson Media ES In Construction 26 Townhomes XW XW " West End Flats Granite Run Mall In Construction XW XWXW 161 Apts 385 Apts, Age Targeted West End Walk Design Phase No Start Date Garfield Place Ponds Edge 25 Townhomes XW Design Phase XW 221 Townhomes ' 1 6 Single 252 Homes Glenwood ES Completed Indian Lane ES No Start Date XW " Middle Town Commons " 350 Townhomes, Age Targeted No Start Date ' 352 " Springton Lake MS " Rose Tree ES XW Developments " Elementary School " Middle School " High School ES Boundaries Miles

39 450 Live Birth Rates Edgemont Township, Media Borough, Middletown Township, and Upper Providence Township Number of Live Births Upper Providence Township Middletown Township Media Borough Edgemont Township *

40 Comparison of Live Births to Kindergarten and 1st Grade Enrollment 400 Actual Projected 350 Live Birth / Enrollment Counts Live Births Kind. 1st Grade 150 Live Birth Year, K +5, 1st+6 yrs. Yr 2000 Live Births = 2005/06 Kinder = 2006/2007 1st Gr Years (Live Birth, Kindergarten, 1st Grade)

41 Enrollments (1999/00 to 2015/16) and Projections (2016/ /26) Year K Total Est. Dev.* 1999/ , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , / , * Estimated number of potential students from new residential developments.

42 4,400 Enrollment Projects For Rose Tree Media School District with Moderate Students Attending from New Developments 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 Enrollment 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 Calculated Projections 1999/ 2000/ 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2014/ 2015/ 2016/ 2017/ 2018/ 2019/ 2020/ 2021/ 2022/ 2023/ 2024/ 2025/ ,179 4,193 4,170 4,157 4,176 4,137 4,129 4,036 4,004 3,993 3,874 3,844 3,937 3,958 3,903 3,937 3,899 3,908 3,924 3,949 3,965 4,012 4,028 4,031 4,033 4,040 4,025 School Year

43 4,400 Enrollment Projections for the Rose Tree Media School District Showing the Estimated Maximum Number of Students from New Developments 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 Enrollment 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2, / 2000/ 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2014/ 2015/ 2016/ 2017/ 2018/ 2019/ 2020/ 2021/ 2022/ 2023/ 2024/ Additional Students Calculated Projections 4,179 4,193 4,170 4,157 4,176 4,137 4,129 4,036 4,004 3,993 3,874 3,844 3,937 3,958 3,903 3,937 3,899 3,908 3,924 3,949 3,965 4,012 4,028 4,031 4,033 4,040 School Year

44 School Enrollment History and 5 Year Projections Year ID School Name K Total Est. Dev. 2005/06 3 Glenwood Elementary /07 3 Glenwood Elementary /08 3 Glenwood Elementary /09 3 Glenwood Elementary /10 3 Glenwood Elementary /11 3 Glenwood Elementary /12 3 Glenwood Elementary /13 3 Glenwood Elementary /14 3 Glenwood Elementary /15 3 Glenwood Elementary /16 3 Glenwood Elementary /17 3 Glenwood Elementary /18 3 Glenwood Elementary /19 3 Glenwood Elementary /20 3 Glenwood Elementary /21 3 Glenwood Elementary /06 4 Indian Lane Elementary /07 4 Indian Lane Elementary /08 4 Indian Lane Elementary /09 4 Indian Lane Elementary /10 4 Indian Lane Elementary /11 4 Indian Lane Elementary /12 4 Indian Lane Elementary /13 4 Indian Lane Elementary /14 4 Indian Lane Elementary /15 4 Indian Lane Elementary /16 4 Indian Lane Elementary /17 4 Indian Lane Elementary /18 4 Indian Lane Elementary /19 4 Indian Lane Elementary /20 4 Indian Lane Elementary /21 4 Indian Lane Elementary

45 School Enrollment History and 5 Year Projections Year ID School Name K Total Est. Dev. 2005/06 5 Media Elementary /07 5 Media Elementary /08 5 Media Elementary /09 5 Media Elementary /10 5 Media Elementary /11 5 Media Elementary /12 5 Media Elementary /13 5 Media Elementary /14 5 Media Elementary /15 5 Media Elementary /16 5 Media Elementary /17 5 Media Elementary /18 5 Media Elementary /19 5 Media Elementary /20 5 Media Elementary /21 5 Media Elementary /06 6 Rose Tree Elementary /07 6 Rose Tree Elementary /08 6 Rose Tree Elementary /09 6 Rose Tree Elementary /10 6 Rose Tree Elementary /11 6 Rose Tree Elementary /12 6 Rose Tree Elementary /13 6 Rose Tree Elementary /14 6 Rose Tree Elementary /15 6 Rose Tree Elementary /16 6 Rose Tree Elementary /17 6 Rose Tree Elementary /18 6 Rose Tree Elementary /19 6 Rose Tree Elementary /20 6 Rose Tree Elementary /21 6 Rose Tree Elementary

46 School Enrollment History and 5 Year Projections Year ID School Name K Total Est. Dev. 2005/06 2 Springton Lake Middle School /07 2 Springton Lake Middle School /08 2 Springton Lake Middle School /09 2 Springton Lake Middle School /10 2 Springton Lake Middle School /11 2 Springton Lake Middle School /12 2 Springton Lake Middle School /13 2 Springton Lake Middle School /14 2 Springton Lake Middle School /15 2 Springton Lake Middle School /16 2 Springton Lake Middle School /17 2 Springton Lake Middle School /18 2 Springton Lake Middle School /19 2 Springton Lake Middle School /20 2 Springton Lake Middle School /21 2 Springton Lake Middle School /06 1 Penncrest High School , /07 1 Penncrest High School , /08 1 Penncrest High School , /09 1 Penncrest High School , /10 1 Penncrest High School , /11 1 Penncrest High School , /12 1 Penncrest High School , /13 1 Penncrest High School , /14 1 Penncrest High School , /15 1 Penncrest High School , /16 1 Penncrest High School , /17 1 Penncrest High School , /18 1 Penncrest High School , /19 1 Penncrest High School , /20 1 Penncrest High School , /21 1 Penncrest High School ,290 12