Raisins: World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service September 21 Raisins: World Markets and Trade 1,15 Falling Global Production Pulls Lower 1,1 1, MT 1,5 1, /4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Production Global raisin consumption in 21/11 is forecast to decline 8 percent to 1. million metric tons (MT) and has weakened over the last few years due to lower availability. The EU-27 consumes nearly one-third of the world s raisins and accounts for most of the decline due to tight supplies from Turkey and the United States. Global production is forecast lower, the third year of contraction. The United States is forecast 5 percent lower due in part to mildew problems from cool, wet weather early in the summer. Also, the crop was over two weeks behind normal which is expected to increase the drying ratio and lower production. Turkey is forecast down 8 percent due to a frost in March as well as heavy rains that limited the use of agricultural inputs such as plant protection chemicals. China is forecast 2 percent lower due to damage from a strong windstorm in Turpin, the primary growing region. Partially offsetting these losses, Iran and Chile are forecast up 25 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Global exports are forecast down 6 percent to 66, MT as losses from the United States, Turkey and China more than offset stronger exports from Iran and Chile. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 Page 2 U.S. raisin exports are forecast to plunge 35 percent to 11, MT due primarily to low carry-in stocks. Exports were exceptionally strong the previous three years as high inventory levels were drawn down to supply overseas markets. With inventory levels tightening, exports are forecast to return to the pre-27/8 level. As a result, exports to the EU-27, Japan and Canada are expected to decline. 1, MT U.S. Exports Plunge as Carry-in Dwindle 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Carry-in Exports , MT Global import unit values are likely to continue rising as a result of less available supplies Global Import Unit Values Continue to Rise Cents per Pound /5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Source: Global Trade Atlas For further information, please contact Tony Halstead at , or send an to Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov For additional production, supply, and demand information, you may visit our website at Office of Global Analysis September 21

3 Raisin Production and Exports 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Sep 21/11 Production Afghanistan 31, 2, 25, 25,3 29, 32, Argentina 25, 36, 33, 3, 36, 37, Australia 3,4 15, 12, 16, 14, 15, Chile 65,5 61,5 67,35 8, 67, 75, China 15, 125, 15, 135, 15, 12, EU-27 3, 2, 1, 1, 12, 1, Iran 155, 13, 15, 6, 1, 125, Mexico 8,2 8,5 8,5 8,5 8,3 8,5 South Africa 36, 41,8 4,2 28, 43, 45, Turkey 25, 28, 25, 31, 26, 24, United States 316, , , , ,835 28, Uzbekistan 26, 3, 37, 25,7 26, 3, Total 1,78,345 1,42,677 1,14,193 1,75,952 1,4,135 1,17,5 Exports Afghanistan 25,1 15,5 21, 21,3 25, 28, Argentina 19,1 28,9 23,95 22,2 28,1 29, Australia 7,65 5,7 4,15 4,5 3, 3, Chile 59,4 61,3 65,6 78,3 65, 73, China 18,63 23,621 31,874 27,5 48, 35, EU-27 8,7 8,625 7,45 7,6 9, 9, Iran 123, 13, 117, 4, 78, 1, Mexico 3,14 1,967 3,2 2,8 2,4 2,5 South Africa 23,6 33,83 38,8 23,2 4, 4,5 Turkey 29,2 263,8 25,9 274,9 214, 25, United States 19,5 112,22 152, ,295 17, 11, Uzbekistan 2,6 24, 29,7 21,1 21,7 25, Total 626, ,463 71,9 667,695 74,2 66, none none Raisin marketing year for producer countries begins in August for northern hemisphere countries and January for southern hemisphere countries. Raisin marketing year for non-producer countries begins in August. Intra-EU trade excluded from EU-27 data. Office of Global Analysis September 21

4 Raisin Imports and 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Sep 21/11 Imports Afghanistan Algeria 6,6 7,65 7,9 9, 7,3 6,8 Argentina Australia 11,6 27,475 26,85 26,6 26,8 25, Brazil 17,15 19,175 22,7 19,5 27, 25, Canada 34, 32,8 32,5 31,3 29,3 27, Chile 1, China 1,391 12,262 13,6 11,3 13,3 13, Colombia 5,2 5,75 5,95 6, 6,5 6, EU ,15 331,6 349,9 325, 34,5 315, India 8,65 6,9 8,9 9,2 1, 9, Iran Japan 28,95 31,85 32,3 27,3 29,3 27, Malaysia 4,95 5,2 5,25 5,95 6,775 6,3 Mexico 11,69 14,342 13,1 15,5 16,1 15, Morocco 4,85 6,5 5,5 7,5 7,4 7, New Zealand 6,9 7,925 8, 7,4 7,8 7,4 Norway 4, 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,7 4,4 Peru 4,975 5,625 5,625 6,425 6,5 6, Russia 62,6 7,325 7,5 64,5 72,4 68, South Africa ,1 2,3 2, Switzerland 4, 4, 4,8 4,2 4, 3,7 Taiwan 5,4 5,85 6,325 6,375 7,5 7, Turkey 1, 1, 1, 2,1 2, 1,8 Ukraine 15,475 19,725 2,1 16, 17,8 16,5 United States 21,614 28,868 21,625 19,3 2, 25, Uzbekistan Venezuela 3,6 5,1 7,4 6, 6,2 5,8 Total 594, , ,6 632,25 672,75 63, Domestic Afghanistan 5,9 4,5 4, 4, 4, 4, Algeria 6,6 7,65 7,9 9, 7,3 6,8 Argentina 5,9 7,1 9,5 7,8 7,9 8, Australia 34,35 36,775 34,7 38,1 37,8 37, Brazil 17,15 19,175 22,7 19,5 27, 25, Canada 34, 32,8 32,5 31,3 29,3 27, Chile 4,45 3,4 2,7 2,2 2,72 2,3 China 97, , , ,8 115,3 98, Colombia 5,2 5,75 5,95 6, 6,5 6, EU-27 34,45 342, ,45 327,4 343,5 316, India 8,65 6,9 8,9 9,2 1, 9, Iran 32, 27, 33, 2, 22, 25, Japan 28,95 31,85 32,3 27,3 29,3 27, Malaysia 4,95 5,2 5,25 5,95 6,775 6,3 Mexico 16,876 2,875 18,4 21,2 22, 21, Morocco 4,85 6,5 5,5 7,5 7,4 7, New Zealand 6,9 7,925 8, 7,4 7,8 7,4 Norway 4, 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,7 4,4 Peru 4,975 5,625 5,625 6,425 6,5 6, Russia 62,6 7,325 7,5 64,5 72,4 68, South Africa 13,75 7,52 3,5 5,9 6,8 6,7 Switzerland 4, 4, 4,8 4,2 4, 3,7 Taiwan 5,4 5,85 6,325 6,375 7,5 7, Turkey 26, 36, 69,1 5,377 46, 4, Ukraine 15,475 19,725 2,1 16, 17,8 16,5 United States 248, ,525 22, , ,835 25, Uzbekistan 5,4 6, 7,3 4,6 4,3 5, Venezuela 3,6 5,1 7,4 6, 6,2 5,8 Total 1,48,63 1,86,286 1,134,434 1,73,984 1,87,63 1,,9 none none Office of Global Analysis September 21

5 Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution Country Mktg Year Afghanistan 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Algeria 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Argentina 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Australia 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Brazil 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Canada 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Chile 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 China 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Colombia 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 EU-27 26/7 Beginning 4,7 1, Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic 2, 25, 25,3 29, 32, 36, 33, 3, 36, 37, 15, 12, 16, 14, 15, 61,5 67,35 8, 67, 75, 125, 15, 135, 15, 12, 2, Ending 2, 15,5 4,5 25, 21, 4, 25,3 21,3 4, 29, 25, 4, 32, 28, 4, 7,65 7,65 7,65 7,9 7,9 7,9 9, 9, 9, 7,3 7,3 7,3 6,8 6,8 6,8 36, 28,9 7,1 33, 23,95 9,5 3, 22,2 7,8 36, 28,1 7,9 37, 29, 8, 27,475 42,475 5,7 36,775 26,85 38,85 4,15 34,7 26,6 42,6 4,5 38,1 26,8 4,8 3, 37,8 25, 4, 3, 37, 19,175 19,175 19,175 22,7 22,7 22,7 19,5 19,5 19,5 27, 27, 27, 25, 25, 25, 32,8 32,8 32,8 32,5 32,5 32,5 31,3 31,3 31,3 29,3 29,3 29,3 27, 27, 27, 3 65,87 61,3 3,4 1, ,82 65,6 2, ,72 78,3 2, ,82 65, 2, ,4 73, 2,3 1 12, ,262 23, ,641 13,6 163,6 31, ,726 11,3 146,3 27,5 118,8 13,3 163,3 48, 115,3 13, 133, 35, 98, 5,75 5,75 5,75 5,95 5,95 5,95 6, 6, 6, 6,5 6,5 6,5 6, 6, 6, 331,6 351,6 8, ,975 Office of Global Analysis September 21

6 Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution (Continued) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic Ending 27/8 1, 349,9 359,9 7,45 352,45 28/9 1, 325, 335, 7,6 327,4 29/1 12, 34,5 352,5 9, 343,5 21/11 1, 315, 325, 9, 316, India 26/7 6,9 6,9 6,9 27/8 8,9 8,9 8,9 28/9 9,2 9,2 9,2 29/1 1, 1, 1, 21/11 9, 9, 9, Iran 26/7 13, 13, 13, 27, 27/8 15, 15, 117, 33, 28/9 6, 6, 4, 2, 29/1 1, 1, 78, 22, 21/11 125, 125, 1, 25, Japan 26/7 31,85 31,85 31,85 27/8 32,3 32,3 32,3 28/9 27,3 27,3 27,3 29/1 29,3 29,3 29,3 21/11 27, 27, 27, Malaysia 26/7 5,2 5,2 5,2 27/8 5,25 5,25 5,25 28/9 5,95 5,95 5,95 29/1 6,775 6,775 6,775 21/11 6,3 6,3 6,3 Mexico 26/7 8,5 14,342 22,842 1,967 2,875 27/8 8,5 13,1 21,6 3,2 18,4 28/9 8,5 15,5 24, 2,8 21,2 29/1 8,3 16,1 24,4 2,4 22, 21/11 8,5 15, 23,5 2,5 21, Morocco 26/7 6,5 6,5 6,5 27/8 5,5 5,5 5,5 28/9 7,5 7,5 7,5 29/1 7,4 7,4 7,4 21/11 7, 7, 7, New Zealand 26/7 7,925 7,925 7,925 27/8 8, 8, 8, 28/9 7,4 7,4 7,4 29/1 7,8 7,8 7,8 21/11 7,4 7,4 7,4 Norway 26/7 4,6 4,6 4,6 27/8 4,6 4,6 4,6 28/9 4,5 4,5 4,5 29/1 4,7 4,7 4,7 21/11 4,4 4,4 4,4 Peru 26/7 5,625 5,625 5,625 27/8 5,625 5,625 5,625 28/9 6,425 6,425 6,425 Office of Global Analysis September 21

7 Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution (Continued) Country Mktg Year 29/1 21/11 Russia 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 South Africa 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Switzerland 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Taiwan 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Turkey 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Ukraine 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 United States 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Uzbekistan 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Venezuela 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 Beginning 3,25 4, 2, 2, 5 61,924 43,124 19,124 5,947 7,947 23, 18, 15, 13, 5, Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic 41,8 4,2 28, 43, 45, 28, 25, 31, 26, 24, 274, , , ,835 28, 3, 37, 25,7 26, 3, Ending 6,5 6,5 6,5 6, 6, 6, 7,325 7,325 7,325 7,5 7,5 7,5 64,5 64,5 64,5 72,4 72,4 72,4 68, 68, 68, 3 45,35 33,83 7,52 4, 1 44,3 38,8 3,5 2, 1,1 31,1 23,2 5,9 2, 2,3 47,3 4, 6,8 5 2, 47,5 4,5 6,7 3 4, 4, 4, 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,2 4,2 4,2 4, 4, 4, 3,7 3,7 3,7 5,85 5,85 5,85 6,325 6,325 6,325 6,375 6,375 6,375 7,5 7,5 7,5 7, 7, 7, 1, 342, ,8 36, 43,124 1, 294,124 25,9 69,1 19,124 2,1 331, ,9 5,377 5,947 2, 267, , 46, 7,947 1,8 249,747 25, 4, 4,747 19,725 19,725 19,725 2,1 2,1 2,1 16, 16, 16, 17,8 17,8 17,8 16,5 16,5 16,5 28, , ,22 241,525 18, 21, , ,385 22,383 15, 19,3 516, , ,457 13, 2, 444,835 17, 224,835 5, 25, 355, 11, 25, 4, 3, 24, 6, 37, 29,7 7,3 25,7 21,1 4,6 26, 21,7 4,3 3, 25, 5, 5,1 5,1 5,1 7,4 7,4 7,4 6, 6, 6, 6,2 6,2 6,2 5,8 5,8 5,8 Office of Global Analysis September 21

8 Raisin Production, Supply and Distribution (Continued) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Imports Total Supply Exports Domestic Ending World World 26/7 299,244 1,42, ,122 1,997,43 682,463 1,86, ,294 27/8 228,294 1,14, ,6 2,7,87 71,9 1,134, ,644 28/9 171,644 1,75, ,25 1,879, ,695 1,73, ,167 29/1 138,167 1,4, ,75 1,85,377 74,2 1,87,63 58,547 21/11 58,547 1,17,5 63, 1,76,47 66, 1,,9 45,147 Raisin marketing year for producer countries begins in August for northern hemisphere countries and January for southern hemisphere countries. Raisin marketing year for non-producer countries begins in August. Intra-EU trade excluded from EU-27 data. Office of Global Analysis September 21