ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Transcription

1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS through April 12, 2016

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface... 1 Five-Year Historical Enrollment ( through )... 2 Five-Year Enrollment Projection ( through )... 3 Relationship of Olmsted County Births and Kindergarten Enrollments 5-Years Later... 4 Ten-Year Enrollment Projection by Grade ( through )... 5 Enrollment ( Actual/ Projected) Public School Enrollment by School and Grade Nonpublic School Enrollment by School and Grade... 8 Public, Nonpublic, Home School Enrollments (25-Year Comparison)... 9 Nonpublic, Charter, Home School Enrollment History End of Year District ADM Report Enrollment Options Top 13 Districts for Enrollment Options Ethnicity Report ( through ) Comparison of Projected Enrollments with Actual Enrollments ( through )... 14

3 PREFACE Rochester Public Schools approaches enrollment projections in a serious and conservative manner. Accurate enrollment projections are the cornerstone of planning for school districts. Budget development, educational programs, classroom space, and staff assignments are all planned based on enrollment projections. In addition, long-range financial planning, facility planning, and program planning are all dependent on accurate enrollment projections. If school district enrollment is more than projected, it may require hiring staff at the last minute, making it more difficult to hire qualified staff. A district can be more selective in hiring if it is done early. If school district enrollment is less than projected, too many staff may have already been hired, with contracts that cannot be canceled for a year. Because funding for school districts is based on actual enrollment, expenses would likely exceed revenues and negatively impact its financial condition. Accurate enrollment projections allow a district and community to plan effectively for changes in enrollment patterns in order to continue delivery of quality education without interruption, and by providing the information on which to make decisions about facilities and funding. The enrollment projections for future years are significantly influenced by the kindergarten projection, which is the most difficult to project. The kindergarten projections in this report are based on enrolling 59.7% to 61.1% of Olmsted County births five-years prior. This percentage was arrived at through the use of statistical regression analysis based on fifteen years of historical enrollment data along with a 95% confidence interval. For all other grades, we analyzed the last ten years of data to predict the retention of all other grades based on actual enrollment. We note within the report that we could not come to this level of confidence with our future 9 th grade predictions. Enrollment projections are based on October numbers. However, October Early Childhood enrollment only reflects students identified by October 1 st. As students are identified and tested throughout the year, this number increases. Future counts for Early Childhood are predicted to grow through October From there we assume a constant enrollment. Special Programs include Newcomer classrooms, Rochester Alternative Learning Center, Care & Treatment, and Special Education students served out of the District. These special programs are challenging to predict as there is significant movement in and out during the year. The assumptions show Special Programs growing based on the four-year moving average. Enrollment projections change from year-to-year, as does a budget. Each year we have a slightly different set of numbers from which to project. We have an additional year of actual enrollments, a new year of actual births, and new information about our community which impacts projections. Staying on top of these changes provides for better, more accurate planning. Questions or comments regarding this report are welcome. Sincerely, John Carlson Executive Director of Finance (507)

4 FIVE-YEAR HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT THROUGH (Based on October 1st Enrollment ) Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct Early Childhood Kindergarten 1,262 1,326 1,380 1,321 1,352 Grade 1 1,312 1,293 1,343 1,389 1,325 Grade 2 1,289 1,312 1,282 1,325 1,392 Grade 3 1,307 1,265 1,286 1,293 1,335 Grade 4 1,201 1,317 1,241 1,301 1,324 Grade 5 1,156 1,184 1,298 1,244 1,296 Special Programs TOTAL 7,934 8,172 8,348 8,404 8,580 Grade 6 1,168 1,166 1,172 1,289 1,208 Grade 7 1,113 1,177 1,147 1,164 1,250 Grade 8 1,146 1,116 1,164 1,138 1,155 Special Programs TOTAL 3,493 3,545 3,563 3,696 3,710 Grade 9 1,171 1,195 1,169 1,214 1,225 Grade 10 1,151 1,181 1,165 1,134 1,210 Grade 11 1,176 1,102 1,130 1,119 1,118 Grade 12 1,156 1,153 1,104 1,155 1,120 Special Programs TOTAL 4,968 5,017 4,978 5,044 5,155 GRAND TOTAL 16,395 16,734 16,889 17,144 17,445 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 EC Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

5 FIVE-YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION THROUGH (Based on October 1st Enrollment ) Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct Early Childhood Kindergarten 1,324 1,271 1,303 1,341 1,300 Grade 1 1,361 1,339 1,292 1,319 1,352 Grade 2 1,308 1,354 1,320 1,279 1,302 Grade 3 1,371 1,301 1,337 1,306 1,270 Grade 4 1,337 1,379 1,303 1,339 1,308 Grade 5 1,310 1,327 1,362 1,290 1,324 Special Programs TOTAL 8,611 8,618 8,615 8,628 8,671 Grade 6 1,268 1,297 1,291 1,317 1,264 Grade 7 1,189 1,253 1,258 1,253 1,273 Grade 8 1,231 1,182 1,234 1,239 1,234 Special Programs TOTAL 3,794 3,848 3,910 3,948 3,923 Grade 9 1,297 1,295 1,328 1,387 1,393 Grade 10 1,173 1,200 1,194 1,204 1,222 Grade 11 1,146 1,168 1,140 1,136 1,142 Grade 12 1,131 1,169 1,147 1,138 1,136 Special Programs TOTAL 5,282 5,426 5,468 5,596 5,704 GRAND TOTAL 17,687 17,892 17,993 18,172 18,298 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 EC Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

6 Number of Children BIRTH YEAR RELATIONSHIP OF OLMSTED COUNTY BIRTHS AND KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENTS 5-YEARS LATER BIRTHS IN OLMSTED COUNTY KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT YEAR PUBLIC SCHOOL KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT PERCENT ENROLLMENT TO BIRTHS , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,324 (est) 59.7% , ,271 (est) 61.1% , ,303 (est) 60.2% , ,341 (est) 59.3% , ,300 (est) 60.3% * 2015 Olmsted County Births are preliminary as of Jan Final data comes out summer ,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Enrollment Year BIRTHS IN OLMSTED COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOL KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT PROJECTED PUBLIC SCHOOL KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT 4

7 5 TEN-YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTION BY GRADE Through OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. OCT. ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. PROJ. YEAR ECSE KINDERGARTEN GRADE GRADE GRADE GRADE GRADE Special Programs TOTAL GRADES EC GRADE GRADE GRADE Special Programs TOTAL GRADES GRADE GRADE GRADE GRADE Special Programs TOTAL GRADES TOTAL GRADES EC * Please note the regression model for Grade 9 was not statistically significant, however, the regression formula generated was still used to project enrollment for consistency purposes. * Historical 4 Year Moving Average was used to project ECSE and Special Programs enrollment

8 Number of Students Number of Students Number of Students 9,000 ENROLLMENT Elementary Enrollment Actual Projected Actual Enrollment Projected Enrollment 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,000 Middle School Enrollment Actual Projected Actual Enrollment Projected Enrollment 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 7,000 High School Enrollment Actual Projected Actual Enrollment Projected Enrollment 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 6

9 Membership Report October 1, 2015 K EC NC TOTAL BAMBER VALLEY BISHOP CHURCHILL Early Childhood Special MSB ELTON HILLS FOLWELL FRANKLIN MONTESSORI AT FRANKLIN GAGE GIBBS HOOVER JEFFERSON LINCOLN LONGFELLOW PINEWOOD RIVERSIDE CENTRAL SUNSET TERRACE WASHINGTON TOTALS NC TOTAL JOHN ADAMS JOHN ADAMS ALC WILLOW CREEK WILLOW CREEK ALC 0 KELLOGG FRIEDELL CENTURY CENTURY ALC JOHN MARSHALL JOHN MARSHALL ALC MAYO MAYO ALC ROCH ALTERNATIVE LEARNING CENTER ROCHESTER PHOENIX ACADEMY MAYO CLINIC PROJECT SEARCH 5 5 RAIL TOTALS Special Schools: DISTRICT SUMMARY EARLY CHILDHOOD 118 Elementary Total 8518 CARE & TREATMENT 26 Secondary Total 8642 SPECIAL ED* 141 Special Schools 285 TOTALS 285 TOTALS EC=Early Childhood NC=Newcomer Classes *Out-of-District Special Education This report is printed monthly by the Registration & Records Office

10 NONPUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL AND GRADE (Based on October 1st Enrollment) School K Total Ambassador Academy Faith Christian Greene Valley Holy Spirit Kingdom Kids Lourdes Pentecostal Primrose RCLS Resurrection Rochester Arts & Sciences Academy Schaeffer Seeds of Wisdom St Francis St Johns St Pius TransformED Victory TOTALS ,338 Home School Beacon Academy Rochester Math & Science Academy Rochester Off Campus Rochester STEM Academy TOTALS ,148 Grand Total ,486 *Note: In Rochester Montessori was removed due to the school being in the Byron Public School District.

11 PUBLIC, NONPUBLIC, HOME SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS 25-Year Comparison HOME PUBLIC NONPUBLIC CHARTER SCHOOL TOTAL YEAR Enroll. % Enroll. % Enroll. % Enroll. % ENROLL , % 2, % % 17, , % 2, % % 17, , % 2, % % 17, , % 2, % % 18, , % 2, % % 18, , % 2, % % 18, , % 2, % % 19, , % 3, % % 19, , % 3, % % % 19, , % 3, % % % 19, , % 3, % % % 19, , % 3, % % % 20, , % 3, % % % 20, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 19, , % 2, % % % 20, , % 2, % % % 20, , % 2, % % % 20, , % 2, % % % 20, , % 2, % % % 20,931 Note: Charter schools include: Rochester Off Campus, Rochester Math & Science Academy, and Rochester STEM Academy. Beacon Academy was a new charter school for ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, NONPUBLIC CHARTER HOME SCHOOL 9

12 10 NONPUBLIC, CHARTER, HOME SCHOOL ENROLLMENT HISTORY (Based on October 1st Enrollment) Ambassador Academy Faith Christian Greene Valley Holy Spirit Kingdom Kids Lourdes Rochester Montessori ** ** ** ** Pentecostal Primrose RCLS Resurrection Rochester Arts & Sciences Academy Schaeffer Academy Seeds of Wisdom St Francis St Johns St Pius TransformED 10 Victory SUBTOTAL 3,141 3,102 3,014 2,989 2,899 2,750 2,710 2,651 2,612 2,656 2,716 2,653 2,646 2,501 2,338 Home School Rochester Math & Science Academy Beacon Academy 69 Rochester Off Campus Studio Academy Rochester STEM Academy GRAND TOTAL 3,702 3,629 3,604 3,624 3,676 3,460 3,491 3,467 3,494 3,510 3,605 3,522 3,615 3,477 3,486 **Note: In Rochester Montessori was removed due to the school being in the Byron Public School District.

13 ADM End of Year District ADM Report - Enrollment Options Data from MDE Web Site / Minnesota Funding Report System Year Options Elsewhere *Options to On-line In-District Charter Out of District Enrollment / Charter Other Options In Net Loss ADM APU ADM APU ADM APU ADM APU ADM APU ADM APU ADM APU , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , *Correction Made to Other APU from last year's enrollment report. Increased by 3 APU End of Year District ADM Report - Enrollment Options School Year Options Elsewhere *Options to On-line In-District Charter Out of District Enrollment / Charter Other Options In Net Loss 11

14 12 Top 13 Districts for Enrollment Options Residents Attending Report for Grade Level EC HK KG Total (%) ROCHESTER 535 1,393 1,303 1,303 1,296 1,246 1,270 1,172 1,153 1,223 1,163 1,134 1, ,150 16, % Residents Attending Other Districts , % Total Resident Students 1,509 1,430 1,421 1,436 1,373 1,385 1,288 1,271 1,367 1,304 1,256 1, ,247 17, % Top 13 Districts Svc Dist EC HK KG Grand Total RANK ROCHESTER MATH AND SCIENCE ACADEMY (2) BYRON (3) DOVER-EYOTA (4) STEWARTVILLE (5) PINE ISLAND (6) ROCHESTER OFF-CAMPUS CHARTER HIGH (7) ROCHESTER STEM ACADEMY (8) PLAINVIEW-ELGIN-MILLVILLE (9) HOUSTON (10) MINNESOTA TRANSITIONS CHARTER SCH (11) KASSON-MANTORVILLE (12) CHATFIELD (13) LAKE CITY (14) Students Served Report for Grade Level EC HK KG Total (%) ROCHESTER 535 1,393 1,303 1,303 1,296 1,246 1,270 1,172 1,153 1,223 1,163 1,134 1, ,150 16, % Residents Attending Other Districts % Total Resident Students 1,408 1,332 1,319 1,315 1,258 1,284 1,184 1,162 1,253 1,186 1,168 1, ,164 16, % Top 13 Districts Res Dist EC HK KG Grand Total RANK PINE ISLAND (2) STEWARTVILLE (3) BYRON (4) PLAINVIEW-ELGIN-MILLVILLE (5) KASSON-MANTORVILLE (6) ZUMBROTA-MAZEPPA (7) CHATFIELD (8) DOVER-EYOTA (9) KINGSLAND (10) LAKE CITY (11) TRITON (12) ST. CHARLES (13) ROSEMOUNT-APPLE VALLEY-EAGAN (14)

15 Number of Children ETHNICITY REPORT October 1st Counts Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of Oct-11 Total Oct-12 Total Oct-13 Total Oct-14 Total Oct-15 Total Native American % % % % % Asian 1, % 1, % 1, % 1, % 2, % Hispanic 1, % 1, % 1, % 1, % 1, % Black 2, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 2, % White 11, % 11, % 11, % 11, % 11, % TOTAL 16,395 16,734 16,889 17,144 17,445 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 13

16 COMPARISON OF PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS WITH ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTED YEAR OF 1-YEAR 5-YEARS 1-YEAR DIFF 5-YEAR DIFF ACTUAL ACTUAL EARLIER EARLIER EARLIER EARLIER ,529 15,641 16, % -5.0% ,845 15,752 16, % -4.5% ,934 16,010 16, % -3.4% ,182 16,066 16, % -2.8% ,087 16,367 15, % 1.6% ,123 15,970 15, % 3.5% ,387 16,134 15, % 4.0% ,447 16,313 15, % 5.2% ,310 16,388 16, % -1.3% ,109 16,275 15, % 2.6% ,381 16,249 15, % 4.5% ,296 16,555 16, % -0.7% ,296 16,400 16, % -4.0% ,312 16,327 16, % -2.6% ,384 16,425 16, % -1.5% ,395 16,401 17, % -6.4% ,734 16,373 17, % -5.0% ,889 16,758 17, % -2.9% ,144 16,984 17, % -1.7% ,445 17,163 17, % -1.2% TWENTY YEAR AVERAGE 0.9% 3.2% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Comparison of Projected Enrollments with Actual Enrollments 1-YEAR DIFF 5-YEAR DIFF *No 10 year enrollment projection document was created for the annual enrollment document. A 6 years earlier comparison was used instead from the annual enrollment document. 14