Strategies for Putting the Marketing Puzzle Together

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1 Strategies for Putting the Marketing Puzzle Together Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Division of Applied Social Sciences University of Missouri November 11, 2018 Melvin Brees, Abner Womack, Daniel Jaegers, Matthew Green

2 U.S. corn supply and use 2017/18 (USDA Nov.8) 2018/19 (USDA Nov. 8) 2018/19 (FAPRI Nov. 2018) 2019/20 (FAPRI Nov.2018) Area planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu./harvested acre) Production (mil. bu.) 14,604 14,626 14,626 14,643 Feed and residual use (mil. bu.) 5,298 5,500 5,501 5,505 Ethanol and coproduct use 5,605 5,650 5,636 5,629 Other domestic use 1,450 1,480 1,459 1,465 Exports 2,438 2,450 2,440 2,114 Ending stocks 2,140 1,736 1,756 1,718 Marketing yr. avg. price ($/bu.) Source: USDA WASDE, Nov 2018.

3 WASDE USDA Corn Summary Nov. 8, ) U.S. Average Farm Price Moderate Increase USDA: $3.60 ($3.20- $4.00) USDA: $ USDA: $ USDA: $3.61 2) U.S. Ending Stocks-Moderate decline USDA: (1,736 Million Bushels) USDA: (2,140 Million Bushels) USDA: (2,293 Million Bushels) 10 Year Average 08/09-17/18: (1,579 Million Bushels) 20 Year Average 98/99-17/18: (1,592 Million Bushels) 3) World Ending Corn Stocks Declining World: (308 Million Metric Tons) World: (341 Million Metric Tons) World: (350Million Metric Tons) 4) U.S. Export Slight Change USDA: (2,450 Million Bushels) USDA: (2,438 Million Bushels) USDA: (2,294 Million Bushels)

4 10-Yr AVG Domestic and Global corn ending stocks declining. Corn World End Stocks (MMT) Chinese Stocks adjustment in Nov 18 WASDE results in increased 149 million tons of ending stocks for the 2018/19 marketing year! Updated Chart. Million Metric Tons Yr AVG

5 10-Yr AVG Corn use continues to grow, ending stocks/use ratio declining to near average of previous 10 years.

6 1200 Corn World Production & Use World Prod World Use Global corn and coarse grain use expected to exceed World production for second straight year! World Coarse Grains: Production & Use 1400 M M T Production Use

7 Corn Futures Price Corn COT Net Position Axis Title Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Producer Merchandizer Swap Dealer Managed Money Other Reportable Non- Reportable

8 St Louis Corn Basis Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug Sept. 1 Oct. 1 Nov. 1 SE MO Corn Basis Dec. 1 Jan. 1 Feb. 1 Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 Jun. 1 Jul. 1 Aug. 1 5-year AVG year AVG Kansas City Corn Basis 0.00 Central MO Corn Basis Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug year AVG Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug year AVG

9 Old Crop (18-19) Corn FAPRI Baseline Ranges Nov, 2018 Aug 2018 FAPRI Price: Adjusted for $0.30 basis Futures Price Equivalent of Projected Farm Price: $3.89 Futures Price Equivalent of FAPRI Range: $ Futures Price Equivalent of Nov 8 USDA Range: $3.50- $4.30 Avg $ th 80 th 70 th $4.77 $4.40 $4.18 Futures Market Planning Range for old Crop Corn Adjusted for -30 cent basis Dec 18 Futures on 11/28/2018 $3.60 Farm Price $4.47 $4.10 $ th $3.89 $3.49 $3.59 $ th $3.35 $ th $3.13 $2.83

10 New Crop (19-20) Corn FAPRI Baseline Ranges Nov, 2018 Aug 2018 FAPRI Projected Farm Price: Adjusted for $0.20 basis Futures Price Equivalent of Projected Farm Price: $3.98 Futures Price Equivalent of FAPRI Range: $ Futures Market Planning Range for New Crop Corn Adjusted for -20 cent basis Farm Price 90 th $4.90 $ th 70 th $4.52 $4.29 DEC 19 Futures on 11/28/2018 $3.96 $4.32 $4.09 $3.98 $ th $3.56 $ th $3.41 $ th $3.18 $2.98

11 U.S. soybean supply and use 2017/18 (USDA Nov 8) 2018/19 (USDA Nov 8) 2018/19 (FAPRI Nov /20 (FAPRI Nov,2018) Area planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu./harvested acre) Production (mil. bu.) 4,411 4,600 4,600 4,084 Crush (mil. bu.) 2,055 2,080 2,120 2,138 Other domestic use Exports 2,129 1,900 1,957 1,981 Ending stocks Marketing yr. avg. price ($/bu.) Sources: USDA WASDE, Nov 2018.

12 WASDE-USDA Soybean Summary Nov 8, ) U.S. Average Farm Price- Significant Decline USDA: $8.60 ($ $9.60) USDA: $ USDA: $9.47 2) U.S. Ending Stocks- Significantly above 20 Year Average USDA: (955 Million Bushels) USDA: (438 Million Bushels) USDA: (302 Million Bushels) 10 Year Average 08/09-17/18: (207 Million Bushels) 20 Year Average 98/99-17/18: (247 Million Bushels) 3) World Ending Soybean Stocks- Significantly above 10 Year average World: (112 Million Metric Tons) World: (100 Million Metric Tons) World: (97 Million Metric Ton) 10 Year Average 08/09-17/18: (70 Million Metric Tons) 20 Year Average 98/99-17/18: (55 Million Metric Tons) 4) U.S. Export - Moderate decline USDA: (1,900 Million Bushels) USDA: (2,129 Million Bushels) USDA: (2,166 Million Bushels)

13 In just 4 years (since 13-14) domestic soybean ending stocks have increased from the smallest in 40-years to projected new record high! 10-Yr AVG 10-Yr AVG

14 Total soybean use expected to decline, ending stocks/use ratio to become very large. 10-Yr AVG

15 World soybean production expected to outrun increasing global use!

16 Soybean Futures Prices Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 Soybean: COT Net Positions May 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 15 Aug. 15 Sept. 15 Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 May 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 15 Aug. 15 Sept. 15 Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 May 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 15 Aug. 15 Thousand Contracts Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Producer Merchandizer Swap Dealer Managed Money Other Reportable Non- Reportable

17 St Louis Soybean Basis SE MO Soybean Basis Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug yr Average yr Average Series Kansas City Soybean Basis 1.00 Central MO Soybean Basis Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug Sept. 1 Sept. 15 Oct. 1 Oct. 15 Nov. 1 Nov. 15 Dec. 1 Dec. 15 Jan. 1 Jan. 15 Feb. 1 Feb. 15 Mar. 1 Mar. 15 Apr. 1 Apr. 15 May 1 May 15 Jun. 1 Jun. 15 Jul. 1 Jul. 15 Aug. 1 Aug yr Average yr Average

18 Old Crop (18-19) Soybean FAPRI Baseline Ranges Nov, 2018 Aug 2018 FAPRI Price: Adjusted for $0.60 basis Futures Price Equivalent of Projected Farm Price: $9.00 Futures Price Equivalent of FAPRI Range: $ Futures Price Equivalent of Nov 8 USDA Price: Avg $ th $11.71 Futures Market Planning Range for Old Crop Soybeans Adjusted for -60 cent basis Farm Price $ th 70 th $10.66 $9.79 Nov 18 Futures on 11/28/2018 $8.90 $10.06 $9.19 $9.00 $ th $7.95 $ th 10 th $7.43 $6.73 $6.83 $6.13

19 New Crop (19-20) Soybean FAPRI Baseline Ranges Nov, 2018 Aug 2017 FAPRI Price: Adjusted for $0.45 basis Futures Price Equivalent of Projected Farm Price: $9.29 Futures Price Equivalent of FAPRI Range: $ th 80 th 70 th $12.06 $10.99 $10.10 Futures Market Planning Range for New Crop Soybeans Adjusted for -45 cent basis Nov 19 Futures On 11/28/2018 $9.38 Farm Price $11.61 $10.54 $9.65 $9.29 $ th $8.22 $ th $7.68 $ th $6.96 $6.51

20 10-YR AVG 10-Yr AVG

21 Global wheat use expected to exceed world production.

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