WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll

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Harriet Reed
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1 WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll FOR RELEASE By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. January 29, 2000 UNH Survey Center 6:00 P.M. (603) LITTLE MOVEMENT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE Durham, NH Both the Democrat and Republican primary races are stable going into the final campaign weekend. These findings are based on the WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll,* conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Eight hundred, forty-one (841) likely New Hampshire primary voters were interviewed between January 25 and January 28, 2000; 495 likely Republican primary voters and 346 likely Democratic primary voters. The potential sampling error for the survey is ±3.4%, the sampling error for the Republican sub-sample is ±4% and ±5% for the Democratic sub-sample. With time running out before Tuesday s vote, the primary campaigns in New Hampshire have settled into a stable pattern. There has been very little movement among candidates from either party this past week. However, almost one-third of the electorate says they may change their mind and support another candidate. Republican Primary John McCain continues to hold an 8 percentage point lead over his main rival, George W. Bush. In the latest WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire primary tracking poll, 41% of likely Republican primary voters say they will vote for McCain, 33% say they will vote for Bush, 16% will vote for Steve Forbes, 8% will vote for Alan Keyes, 1% will vote for Gary Bauer, and 2% remain undecided. Support for McCain has been hovering near 40% all week. Support for Bush, after a drop over last weekend, has remained steady at 33%. Forbes, perhaps as a result of his strong finish in Iowa, and also because of heavy advertising, has seen his support slowly increase in the past week. Monday, 12% of likely GOP primary voters said they planned to vote for Forbes. This has increased daily to his current level of support, 16%. Keyes has remained steady with 8% of the GOP vote. Bauer has been unable to attract many voters this past week and his support has never climbed above 1%. Undeclared voters voting in the Republican primary, often called independents, are still McCain s strongest supporters. Currently, 52% of independent voters say they plan to vote for McCain, 24% say they will vote for Bush, 19% will vote for Forbes, and 5% will vote for Keyes. Among registered Republicans, 38% say they will vote for Bush, 34% will vote for McCain, 14% will vote for Forbes, and 10% will vote for Keyes. Although the GOP race has remained fairly stable, it is by no means settled. Fully one-third of likely GOP primary voters say they may change their mind and support someone else, while 67% say they are certain in their vote. McCain voters are most certain in their support, 73% say they are certain to vote for McCain. By comparison, 67% of Bush voters say they are certain to vote for Bush, 64% of Forbes voters say they are certain to support Forbes, and 58% of Keyes voters say they are certain to support Keyes. Democratic Primary In the Democratic race, Vice President Al Gore has been slowly pulling away from his rival, former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. In the latest WMUR / FOX News tracking poll, 54% of likely Democratic primary voters say they will vote for Gore, 42% will vote for Bradley, and 4% are undecided. Gore continues to run strongest among registered Democrats. Currently, 57% of registered Democrats say they will vote for Gore and 39% say they will vote for Bradley. Among undeclared voters, or independents, voting in the Democratic primary, 49% say they plan to vote for Bradley and 46% plan to vote for Gore. Overall, 71% of Democratic voters say they are certain to support their candidate; 76% of Gore voters and 70% of Bradley voters. * We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The UNH Survey Center will conduct daily tracking until January 30, The tracking poll results will be reported each day.

2 WMUR / FOX News New Hampshire Primary Tracking Poll University of New Hampshire Survey Center NH Republican Primary Bauer Bush Forbes Hatch* Keyes McCain Und. (N) January (Latest) 1% 33% 16% -- 8% 41% 2% 495 January % 33% 15% -- 9% 40% 2% 508 January % 33% 14% -- 9% 41% 3% 520 January % 32% 13% -- 8% 43% 2% 521 January % 35% 12% 0% 8% 40% 3% 419 January % 37% 12% 1% 8% 38% 3% 381 Registration Status Undeclared Registered Republican * Withdrew 1/26/00 NH Democratic Primary Bradley Gore Other Undecided (N) January (Latest) 42% 54% 1% 4% 346 January % 54% 0% 4% 394 January % 53% 0% 4% 406 January % 50% 0% 5% 393 January % 52% 0% 6% 338 January % 50% 1% 8% 280 Registration Status Registered Democrat Undeclared Certainty of Vote May Change Don't GOP Primary Certain Mind Know January (Latest) 67% 31% 2% January January January January January GOP Candidate Favored Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain DEM Primary January (Latest) 71% 26% 3% January January January January January DEM Candidate Favored Bradley Gore

3 NH GOP Primary Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Other DK January % 37% 12% 8% 38% 1% 3% January January January January January (Latest) Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable Primary-extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

4 NH GOP Primary Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Other DK January % 37% 12% 8% 38% 1% 3% January January January January January (Latest) Most Important Issue Economy Health care Social Security Campaign finance reform Education Morality Foreign policy Taxes Gun control Abortion Candidate Quality Stands up for beliefs Understands complex issues Best chance to win in Nov Represents conservative issues Strong decisive leader Cares about average American Right experience

5 Likely Republican Primary Voters Second Choice Bush Forbes McCain Bradley Gore Other DK January % 16% 27% 5% 5% 15% 3% January January January January January (Latest) First Choice Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Likely Republican Primary Voters Certainty of Vote May Change Don't Certain Mind Know January % 33% 0% January January January January January (Latest) GOP Candidate Favored Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain

6 Most Important Issue Likely Republican Primary Voters Health Soc. Economy Care Sec. Educ. Morality Taxes Other January % 14% 12% 9% 11% 21% 19% January January January January January (Latest) Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

7 Top 3 Most Important Issues Likely Republican Primary Voters Health Soc. Economy Care Sec. Educ. Morality Taxes Other January % 41% 38% 37% 35% 46% 61% January (Latest) Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

8 Important Candidate Qualities Likely Republican Primary Voters Stands Knows Best Rep. Cares for Complex Chance Conser. Strong Avg. Right Beliefs Issues to Win Issues Leader Amer. Exper. DK January % 8% 5% 13% 17% 10% 8% 2% January January January January January (Latest) Bauer Bush Forbes Keyes McCain Undeclared Registered Republican Independent or Democrat Lean Republican Not so strong Republican Strong Republican May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

9 NH Democratic Primary Bradley Gore Other Undecided January % 50% 1% 8% January January January January January (Latest) Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable Primary-extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

10 NH Democratic Primary Bradley Gore Other Undecided January % 50% 1% 8% January January January January January (Latest) Most Important Issue Economy Health care Social Security Campaign finance reform Education Morality Foreign policy Taxes Gun control Abortion Candidate Quality Strong/decisive leader New ideas Not typical politician Right experience Best chance to win in Nov Stands up for what believes Loyal Democrat

11 Likely Democratic Primary Voters Second Choice McCain Bradley Gore Other DK January % 28% 23% 13% 7% January January January January January (Latest) First Choice Bradley Gore Likely Democratic Primary Voters Certainty of Vote May Change Don't Certain Mind Know January % 28% 0% January January January January January (Latest) DEM Candidate Favored Bradley Gore

12 Most Important Issue Likely Democratic Primary Voters Health Soc. Camp. Economy Care Sec. Finan. Educ. Other January % 33% 15% 5% 20% 17% January January January January January (Latest) Bradley Gore Undecided Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

13 Top 3 Most Important Issues Likely Democratic Primary Voters Health Soc. Camp. Economy Care Sec. Finan. Educ. Other January % 69% 49% 13% 57% 74% January (Latest) Bradley Gore Undecided Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

14 Important Candidate Qualities Likely Democratic Primary Voters Not Best Stands Strong New Typical Right Chance For Loyal Leader Ideas Pol. Exper. to Win Beliefs Dem. DK January % 11% 7% 15% 2% 39% 2% 4% January January January January January (Latest) Bradley Gore Registered Democrat Undeclared Strong Democrat Not so strong Democrat Lean Democrat Independent or Republican May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

15 Top 3 Most Important Issues All Likely Primary Voters Health Soc. Economy Care Sec. Educ. Taxes Other January % 53% 43% 46% 35% 82% January (Latest) Registered Democrat Undeclared Registered Republican Democrat Independent Republican Clinton - Favorable Neither Clinton - Unfavorable Primary-extremely interested Very interested Somewhat interested May vote Will vote unless emergency Will definitely vote to to to and over Male Female High school or less Some college College graduate Post-graduate Less than $25, $25,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99, $100,000 or more Lived in NH 5 yrs or less to 10 years to 20 years More than 20 years North West Central NH Western NH Central/Lakes Hillsborough County Seacoast

Opinion on Private Garbage Collection in Scarborough Mixed

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Opinion on Private Garbage Collection in Scarborough Mixed Toronto, February 8 th In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll among 1,090 Toronto voters, support