Demographic Update October 15, 2015

Transcription

1 Leander I.S.D. Demographic Update October 15, 2015

2 2 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

3 3 Numeric Change Total in Student Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) Enrollment 4 th Week Survey, Fall to Fall (pre-peims Estimates)

4 4 Numeric Change in Student Total Enrollment Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4 th Week Survey, Fall to Fall (pre-peims Estimates)

5 Enrollment 5 Past Growth Rates 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, % 7.37% 9.12% 3.60% 3.22% 6.83% 5.58% 3.11% 2.15% 2.56% 15,

6 KN as a Percentage of Total Enrollment 6 Year Leander % KN Texas % KN Leander's Rank % 7.65% 6th % 7.76% 5th % 7.68% 17th % 7.58% 22nd % 7.46% 34th % 7.57% 38th % 7.43% 48th % * Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students

7 Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births 7

8 8 Deceleration in Growth The past few years enrollment reflected a deceleration in growth. Why? Fewer younger students Younger families moving into fewer new homes Lack of regeneration in built-out subdivisions These changes in trends do NOT mean that growth in Leander I.S.D. is stopping, but, like almost all other large districts, it has slowed.

9 9 Fastest Growth Districts in Texas (pre-peims Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015) Districts with >20,000 Students Rank District Sept 2015 Enrollm ent Growth Percent Growth 1 Dallas ISD 164,742 4, % 2 Frisco ISD 53,124 3, % 3 Katy ISD 72,825 2, % 4 Conroe ISD 58,174 1, % 5 Lamar CISD 29,576 1, % 6 Alvin ISD 22,030 1, % 7 Klein ISD 50, % 8 Northwest ISD 20, % 9 Grand Prairie ISD 29, % 10 Fort Worth ISD 86, % 11 Fort Bend ISD 72, % 12 Leander ISD 37, % 13 Cy-Fair ISD 113, % 14 Humble ISD 40, % (Ranked by Number of Students Added)

10 10 Fastest Growth Districts in Texas (pre-peims Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015) Districts with >20,000 Students Rank District Sept 2015 Enrollm ent Growth Percent Growth 1 Frisco ISD 53,124 3, % 2 Alvin ISD 22,030 1, % 3 Northwest ISD 20, % 4 Lamar CISD 29,576 1, % 5 Comal ISD 21, % 6 Katy ISD 72,825 2, % 7 Conroe ISD 58,174 1, % 8 Grand Prairie ISD 29, % 9 Dallas ISD 164,742 4, % 10 Pearland ISD 21, % 11 Leander ISD 37, % 12 Klein ISD 50, % 13 Humble ISD 40, % 14 Keller ISD 34, % (Ranked by Percent Growth)

11 11 Unique Demographic Characteristics Leander I.S.D. Low Economically Disadvantaged population (19.7%) [58.4% in Texas] Leander ISD ranked 3 rd in Texas High STAAR passage rate (83%) [71.8% in Texas] Leander ISD ranked 11 th in Texas Highly educated population (44% have bachelor s degree) [41% in Austin and 27.6% in Texas] High median income level ($81,615) [$63,603 in the Austin metro area]

12 12 Private and Charter Schools Grades Current Enrollment From LISD in KN-12th Enrollment in 5 yrs. From LISD in KN-12th Austin International School 3yrs-5th Cedar Park Montessori School 18mos-6th Founder's Classical Academy K-11th Gateway College Prep School K-12th 1, , Harbor Christian Academy 1st-12th Harmony School for Political Science K-11th ,000 0 Hill Country Christian School PK-12th Holy Family Catholic School PK-8th Leander Charter Academy PK-12th Primrose School at Vista Ridge Inf-K,AS Primrose School at Four Points Inf-K,AS School in the Hills - Steiner Ranch 18 mos-3rd School in the Hills - River Place 18 mos-3rd opens Jan Sterling Classical School PK-12th Summit Christian Academy PK-12th % of LISD residents in private schools Current Enrollment Projected 5 Years 4.61% 5.05%

13 13 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

14 Development Density % of LISD 14 Built out 35% Active 8% Planned 2% Undev. 20% Parks 3% B.C.N.W.R. 7% B.C.N.W.R. Targeted 9% B.C. Preserve 12% Other Preserve 1% 14 Water 3%

15 15 Student Growth by Type of Housing Resident Students in 2014 Resident Students in 2015 Added Students 2014 to 2015 # % Percent of Growth Subdivisions - Built-out Subdivisions - Actively Building 29,556 29, % -- 2,412 3, % 80% Apartments 3,005 3, % 11% Condo % 9% MHP % 0%

16 16 Factors Contributing to New Housing Growth MUDs and TIRZ Financing Changing Land Plans New Comprehensive Plans Large Mixed Use Developments Condo-izing of Formerly Planned Multi-Family and Commercial Availability of Water Environmental Concerns Transportation Improvements

17 Leander I.S.D. Future Transportation Transportation Improvements Drive New Housing Construction North side: Lakeline extension up to FM 2243 San Gabriel Parkway now spans CR 270 to Bagdad Planned expansion East (to Ronald Reagan) and West (to future Lakeline) Improved access within and through subdivisions: Lakeline extension (Mason Hills) Goodnight and other arterials (Travisso) Osage extension (Crystal Falls and Travisso) - planned East side: Recent thoroughfares (Hero Way, E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr) Future extensions (E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr) Whitestone current widening east of 183A 17

18 Largest Growth Single-Family Developments New Housing Occupancies NBCD Single-Family Developments Travisso 830 1,139 1, , 4630, 4675, 4680, 4685 Crystal Falls 1, , Bryson &4610 Mason Hills Palmera Ridge and Palmera Bluff Caughfield Development Highland Meadows Parkside at Mayfield Ranch Deerbrooke Kutscher Ranch Oak Creek Greatwood Hawkes Landing ,861 5,171 10,032 23,827 Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions): Total Subdivision Housing Projected:

19 19 Multi-Family Developments in the Next Two Years NBCD Apartment Complex Subsidized Status Units 2705 Aria at Steiner Ranch 35% o ccupied Cardinal Point TDHCA appro ved by T D H C A Escape at Four Points 80% o ccupied Leander Crossing m o v ing dirt Parkway Crossing US HUD m o v ing dirt Tacara Steiner Ranch 4900 The Tuckaway TDHCA 1160 Village at Leander Station 2550 Windy Ridge TDHCA planned fo r applying to T D H C A 256 under co nstructio n 220 under co nstructio n 120

20 Projected New Housing Occupancies Year Ending in October: Single Family Condo/ Townhome Housing Multi- Family Total New Housing Units , , , ,003 2, , ,166 2, , ,591 3, , ,726 3, , ,617 3, , ,308 3, , , , , , , ,280 2,819 6,201 20, ,547 1,626 5,301 19, ,827 4,445 11,502 39,774 20

21 21 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2015 to October 2016

22 22 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2015 to October 2020

23 23 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2015 to October 2025

24 24 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

25 25 Ratios of Students per Household Single-Family Homes students per home students per home students per home students per home Apartments 0.31 students per unit 0.31 students per unit 0.29 students per unit 0.30 students per unit

26 Students per Home in the Master Planned Communities Avery Ranch Crystal Falls Mason Hills Steiner Ranch Travisso Twin Creeks

27 27 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

28 Enrollment 28 Three Scenarios of Growth 55,000 50,000 45,000 High Growth , ,938 Moderate Growth , ,226 40,000 Low Growth , ,193 35,000 30,

29 29 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

30 30 Projected Resident EE-5 th Grade Students by Current Elementary Attendance Zone

31 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 31 Open Elementary #

32 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 32 Open Elementary #

33 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 33 Open Elementary #

34 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 34 Open Elementary #

35 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 35 Open Elementary #30 and #

36 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 36 Open Elementary # or

37 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 37 Summary

38 38 Summary Elementary Long Range Plan New Elementary Schools Projected to be Needed Total 2015 Study Study Study Study

39 39 Projected Resident 6 th -8 th Grade Students by Current Middle School Attendance Zone

40 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Middle School Long Range Planning 40 Open Middle School #

41 Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Middle School Long Range Planning 41 Open Middle School #

42 42 Summary Middle School Long Range Plan New Middle Schools Projected to be Needed Study MS #9 MS # Study MS #9 MS # Study 2012 Study MS #9 MS #9 MS #10 MS #10

43 43 Projected Resident 9 th -12 th Grade Students by High School Attendance Zone

44 44 Summary High School Long Range Plan New High Schools Projected to be Needed Study Glenn HS HS # Study HS #6 HS # Study HS #6 HS # Study HS #6 HS #7

45 Leander I.S.D. Demographic Update