Quarterly Report 1Q18

Transcription

1 Hays Consolidated Independent School District Quarterly Report 1Q18 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions Austin Area (April 2018) 3.8% 42,506 new jobs National rate 1.4% Unemployment Rate 16,435 1,094 more starts than 1Q18 Job Growth U.S. 3.7% Texas 3.8% Austin MSA 2.8% Hays County 2.7% -0.2% Annual Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

3 120,000 Texas Enrollment Trends Annual Enrollment Change 2017/18 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,399,682 Total Growth 40, ,000 78,644 80,000 60,000 78,078 98,273 85,773 77,261 64,962 76,085 80,140 67,522 59,540 40,000 40,555 20, / / / / / /18 3

4 Region 13 & 20 Enrollment Trends 4

5 Region 13 & 20 Enrollment Trends Region 13 Region 20 Rank DISTRICT 2012/13 Enrollment 2017/18 Enrollment 5-YEAR CHANGE (12/13-17/18) 5-YEAR PCT Growth 1 Leander ISD 34,384 39,028 4, % 2 Round Rock ISD 45,753 49,086 3, % 3 Hays Cons ISD 16,568 19,862 3, % 4 Lake Travis ISD 7,809 10,410 2, % 5 Pflugerville ISD 23,348 25,306 1, % 6 Dripping Springs ISD 4,781 6,450 1, % 7 Bastrop ISD 9,298 10,899 1, % 8 Hutto ISD 5,757 7,240 1, % 9 Georgetown ISD 10,362 11,537 1, % 10 Liberty Hill ISD 2,853 4,023 1, % 11 Manor ISD 8,088 9,109 1, % 12 Lockhart ISD 4,968 5, % 13 New Braunfels ISD 8,101 8, % 14 San Marcos Cons ISD 7,533 8, % 15 Jarrell ISD 1,081 1, % 16 Wimberley ISD 2,050 2, % 17 Navarro ISD 1,622 1, % 18 Fredericksburg ISD 2,988 3, % 19 Eanes ISD 7,868 8, % 20 Marble Falls ISD 4,044 4, % Rank DISTRICT 2012/13 Enrollment 2017/18 Enrollment 5-YEAR CHANGE (12/13-17/18) 5-YEAR PCT Growth 1 Northside ISD (Bexar) 100, ,700 6, % 2 Comal ISD 18,681 23,105 4, % 3 Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD 13,592 15,653 2, % 4 Boerne ISD 7,094 8,687 1, % 5 Medina Valley ISD 3,648 5,088 1, % 6 Southwest ISD 13,025 13, % 7 East Central ISD 9,606 10, % 8 Southside ISD 5,136 5, % 9 Judson ISD 22,603 23, % 10 La Vernia ISD 3,069 3, % 11 Somerset ISD 3,905 4, % 12 Randolph Field ISD 1,194 1, % 13 Floresville ISD 3,829 4, % 14 Ingram ISD 955 1, % 15 Marion ISD 1,322 1, % 16 Jourdanton ISD 1,472 1, % 17 Knippa ISD % 18 Pleasanton ISD 3,490 3, % 19 Kerrville ISD 4,926 5, % 20 Cotulla ISD 1,292 1, % 5

6 Hays CISD Home Sales New and Existing Home Sales by Price Range, May 2017 April Home Sales by Price Range 0 < $149K $150K - $199K $200K - $250K $250K - $299K $300K - $349K $350K - $399K $400K - $499K $500K - $699K $700K - $999K New Home Sales Existing Home Sales In the last 12 months, Hays CISD had roughly 2,800 home sales The average sale price for a new home in Hays CISD in the last 12 months was $255,830 The average sale price for an existing home in HCISD in the last 12 months was $230,000 6

7 Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 1Q18 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 2,424 2,481 3,606 14,269 2 Austin ISD 1,806 1,789 1,731 10,979 3 Pflugerville ISD 1,611 1,532 2,110 10,869 4 Round Rock ISD 1,484 1,429 1,658 3,056 5 Hays CISD 1,462 1,398 2,239 33,054* 6 Georgetown ISD 1,451 1,215 2,395 17,761 7 Manor ISD 1, ,226 16,142 8 Hutto ISD ,049 5,006 9 Lake Travis ISD ,758 5, Del Valle ISD 1, , Liberty Hill ISD ,924 11, Dripping Springs ISD ,178 6, Jarrell ISD , San Marcos CISD , Bastrop ISD ,387 19, Taylor ISD Eanes ISD Lago Vista ISD , Lockhart ISD , Wimberly ISD *Based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff 7

8 New Housing Activity 500 Starts Closings 450 Hays CISD Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total ,172 1,392 1,397 1, Total ,116 1,263 1,370 1, Hays CISD started 360 homes in 1Q18, a rise of more than 70% over the previous quarter The district had 290 new home closings in the first quarter New home inventory is at a healthy 6 month s supply 8

9 Annual Closing Distribution Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q18 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Closings Quarter Closings VDL Future 1 Shadow Creek Sunfield ,529 3 Blanco Vista ,120 4 Meadows of Kyle Creekside Village Stonefield Cypress Forest Kensington Trails White Oak Preserve Bunton Creek Village TOTALS 1, ,324 5,059 9

10 Vacant Developed Lots Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q18 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Blanco Vista ,120 2 Bunton Creek Village Sunfield ,529 4 Shadow Creek Creekside Village Crosswinds (Pfluger) Avana (HCISD) La Ventana Plum Creek , Stonefield TOTALS 914 1,665 8,716 10

11 Future Lots Top 10 Subdivisions - 1Q18 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 La Salle 0 0 7,000 2 Blanco River Ranch 0 0 4,000 3 Sunfield ,529 4 Plum Creek ,464 5 Pecan Woods 0 0 3,155 6 Anthem 0 0 2,200 7 Kyle Estates 0 0 1,608 8 Blanco Vista ,120 9 Bailey Tract Crosswinds (Science Hall) TOTALS ,575 11

12 Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone Elementary School Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings U/C Inventory VDL Future BLANCO VISTA ,120 BUDA CAMINO REAL CARPENTER HILL ELM GROVE FUENTES ,506 HEMPHILL ,682 KYLE NEGLEY ,040 PFLUGER SCIENCE HALL TOBIAS ,041 TOM GREEN ,716 UHLAND Grand Total 1, , ,239 33,054 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category 12

13 District Housing Overview Hays CISD has more than 2,200 lots available to build on The district has roughly 33,000 planned future lots Of those, groundwork is underway on roughly 1,700 lots 13

14 Residential Activity Sunfield 4,725 total single family lots 3,529 futures 908 occupied 208 VDL 55 under construction Closed 56 homes in 1Q18 Building homes a year Tom Green Elementary 14

15 Residential Activity Shadow Creek 1,701 total single family lots 1,412 occupied 79 under construction 184 VDL All lots delivered Started 82 homes in 1Q18 Built out by mid to late 2019 Pfluger Elementary Crosswinds 1,397 total single family lots Split between Pfluger and Science Hall Elementary All current activity within the Pfluger Elementary Zone 36 occupied 15 under construction 131 VDL Building 100 homes in

16 Residential Activity East Ridge 55 total lots All lots delivered 4Q17 Lots for individual sale Custom home building Camino Real Elementary Studio Estates 113 total single family lots 85 VDL 18 occupied 10 under construction Individual lots for sale with custom home building Camino Real Elementary 16

17 Residential Activity Bunton Creek Village 698 total lots 68 futures 379 occupied 219 VDL Building homes in 2018 Fuentes Elementary Cool Springs 372 total lots 273 futures 74 VDL First phase delivered with 25 homes started in 1Q18 $240K - $300K First residents by July 2018 Tobias Elementary Woodlands Park 493 total lots 145 futures 252 occupied 55 VDL 63 annual starts with 36 homes U/C Building homes in 2018 Tobias Elementary 17

18 Residential Activity Meridian Park Estates 47 total lots within HCISD 20 occupied 15 VDL 12 homes U/C Carpenter Hill Elementary Avana 184 total lots within HCISD 14 occupied 117 VDL 53 homes U/C Carpenter Hill Elementary 18

19 Charter School Impact IDEA - Kyle New IDEA Charter School campus coming to Kyle Opening Fall 2018 Grades K 2 and 6 th Expecting to have 480 students in it s first year Adding a new grade each year until grade 12 is reached 19

20 Ten Year Forecast- Charter School Impact By Grade Level Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth % Growth 2013/ ,348 1,348 1,317 1,380 1,325 1,368 1,303 1,362 1,258 1,337 1,266 1,017 1,006 17, / ,344 1,425 1,396 1,386 1,408 1,397 1,405 1,358 1,414 1,372 1,307 1,129 1,006 17, % 2015/ ,298 1,406 1,481 1,438 1,455 1,468 1,434 1,457 1,402 1,542 1,356 1,186 1,105 18, % 2016/ ,349 1,363 1,446 1,517 1,489 1,505 1,512 1,486 1,475 1,579 1,463 1,249 1,145 19, % 2017/ ,411 1,473 1,417 1,458 1,593 1,568 1,520 1,552 1,520 1,643 1,511 1,311 1,204 19, % 2018/ ,324 1,433 1,432 1,448 1,541 1,681 1,513 1,571 1,593 1,695 1,604 1,410 1,261 20, % 2019/ ,405 1,423 1,481 1,469 1,520 1,595 1,622 1,578 1,579 1,782 1,626 1,488 1,373 20, % 2020/ ,466 1,496 1,470 1,518 1,530 1,585 1,563 1,686 1,606 1,769 1,723 1,512 1,441 21, % 2021/ ,526 1,557 1,552 1,517 1,591 1,590 1,550 1,618 1,722 1,795 1,707 1,599 1,463 21, % 2022/ ,563 1,636 1,613 1,599 1,586 1,651 1,629 1,621 1,648 1,925 1,734 1,583 1,550 21, % 2023/ ,602 1,656 1,677 1,671 1,681 1,647 1,688 1,695 1,659 1,842 1,858 1,608 1,522 22, % 2024/ ,659 1,768 1,747 1,730 1,756 1,750 1,683 1,756 1,732 1,852 1,778 1,720 1,548 23, % 2025/ ,702 1,856 1,824 1,801 1,819 1,831 1,789 1,750 1,796 1,939 1,788 1,647 1,657 23, % 2026/ ,747 1,930 1,926 1,877 1,891 1,894 1,872 1,859 1,787 2,004 1,870 1,656 1,585 24, % 2027/ ,809 2,001 2,000 1,983 1,971 1,972 1,934 1,943 1,825 1,995 1,932 1,732 1,595 25, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Hays CISD may enroll more than 20,000 students this fall 5 year growth = 2,136 Fall 2022/23 enrollment = 21, year growth = 5,490 Fall 2027/28 enrollment = 25,352 20

21 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2016/ / / / / / / / / / / /28 BLANCO VISTA ELEMENTARY BUDA ELEMENTARY CAMINO REAL ELEMENTARY CARPENTER HILL ELEMENTARY ELM GROVE ELEMENTARY , FUENTES ELEMENTARY GREEN ELEMENTARY ,012 1,078 1,150 1,227 1,310 HEMPHILL ELEMENTARY KYLE ELEMENTARY NEGLEY ELEMENTARY ,018 1,088 1,168 PFLUGER ELEMENTARY SCIENCE HALL ELEMENTARY TOBIAS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL UHLAND ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ,027 ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTAL 10,666 9,306 9,601 9,519 9,553 9,725 9,993 10,308 10,594 11,070 11,493 11,925 12,396 Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change -6.18% 3.17% -0.85% 0.36% 1.80% 2.76% 3.15% 2.77% 4.49% 3.82% 3.76% 3.95% *Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity 21

22 Ten Year Forecast By Secondary Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2016/ / / / / / / / / / / /28 BARTON MIDDLE SCHOOL CHAPA MIDDLE SCHOOL DAHLSTROM MIDDLE SCHOOL ,018 1,076 1,078 1,134 1,135 1,180 1,186 1,165 SIMON MIDDLE SCHOOL MCCORMICK MIDDLE SCHOOL WALLACE MIDDLE SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL 4,950 4,472 4,592 4,677 4,779 4,855 4,890 4,898 5,042 5,171 5,335 5,518 5,702 Middle School Absolute Growth Middle School Percent Growth 4.17% 2.68% 1.85% 2.18% 1.59% 0.72% 0.16% 2.94% 2.56% 3.17% 3.43% 3.33% LIVE OAK ACADEMY HAYS HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,736 2,905 2,999 3,098 3,136 3,192 3,340 3,386 3,469 3,504 3,593 3,680 LEHMAN HIGH SCHOOL 2,250 2,500 2,566 2,775 2,974 3,112 3,175 3,255 3,248 3,232 3,330 3,326 3,377 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 4,600 5,433 5,669 5,970 6,269 6,445 6,563 6,792 6,831 6,898 7,031 7,116 7,254 High School Absolute Growth High School Percent Growth 4.78% 4.34% 5.30% 5.01% 2.81% 1.84% 3.48% 0.57% 0.98% 1.93% 1.21% 1.94% DISTRICT TOTAL 20,216 19,215 19,862 20,166 20,601 21,025 21,446 21,998 22,467 23,139 23,859 24,559 25,352 District Absolute Growth District Percent Growth -1.0% 3.4% 1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% *Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity 22

23 Summary Hays County s unemployment rate is currently below 3%. Hays CISD added nearly 3,300 students in the last 5 years, making it the 3 rd fastest growing district in Region 13. There is a more than $20,000 difference between the average new and existing home sale price within the district. Due to an IDEA Charter school impact, Hays CISD is expected to add 300 students this fall. HCISD can expect an increase of approximately 2,136 students during the next 5 years. 2022/23 enrollment projection: 21,988. Hays CISD is projected to enroll 25,350 students by the 2027/28 school year. 23