Bastrop Independent School District

Transcription

1 Bastrop Independent School District Demographic Study Fall 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions Austin-Round Rock (September 2017) 2.6% 29,123 new jobs National rate 1.6% Unemployment Rate 16,694 2,576 more starts than 3Q16 Job Growth U.S. 4.1% Texas 4.0% Bastrop Co 3.3% Bastrop County 2.9% -0.8% Annual Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

3 Local Economic Update New Restaurants Three new restaurants are coming soon Burger King and Denny s are still under city review, while CiCi s has begun construction Bastrop Business and Industrial Park Granite and Stone LLC Planning to build a 50,000 sq-ft facility Looking to hire 150 employees over 5 years The EDC is hoping to issue incentives in order to convince the company to invest in creating a new facility and new jobs for the city of Bastrop 3

4 Austin New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 3Q17 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 2,515 2,354 3,555 12,534 2 Austin ISD 2,139 1,420 1,502 11,446 3 Hays CISD 1,451 1,368 1,696 17,984 4 Pflugerville ISD 1,564 1,261 1,737 10,543 5 Round Rock ISD 1,590 1,253 1,929 6,868 6 Georgetown ISD 1,250 1,110 2,220 17,441 7 Hutto ISD 962 1,001 1,201 5,084 8 Del Valle ISD ,247 26,720 9 Manor ISD 1, ,499 15, Lake Travis ISD ,759 4, Liberty Hill ISD ,310 11, Dripping Springs ISD ,332 6, Jarrell ISD , San Marcos CISD , Bastrop ISD ,455 18,780* 16 Taylor ISD Lockhart ISD , Elgin ISD , Lago Vista ISD , Eanes ISD *Metrostudy data does not include manufactured homes and MF units 4

5 Bastrop ISD Housing Overview Bastrop ISD has 1,455 lots available to build on The district has more than 18,000 future planned lots 5

6 Active Development River s Bend at Pecan Park River s Bend at Pecan Park 687 total lots 408 future lots 85 occupied 28 U/C 152 VDL Current student yield: 0.33 Building homes per year $220K - $270K Mina Elementary 6

7 Active Subdivision The Colony The Colony 3,338 approx. total lots 2,755 approx. future lots 432 occupied 17 U/C 121 VDL Submitted preliminary plat for 88 lots, currently under review by city Building a year $350K-$500K Current student yield: 0.24 Split between Bluebonnet and Mina Elementary 88 lots 7

8 Future Subdivision Piney Creek Bend Piney Creek Bend 170 future lots Preliminary plats recently approved by the city Groundwork anticipated to begin early 2018 All lots will be located in the Emile Elementary attendance zone 8

9 Future Subdivision XS Ranch XS Ranch 8,219 total lots Development stalled at this time due to development company filing for bankruptcy Preliminary plat for Phase 1 with 750 lots approved, including construction plans for a bridge over the Colorado River Mina Elementary 9

10 Active Development MPH Capital Management, INC Clear Springs 32 total lots 9 occupied 23 VDL No time restrictions on home construction, as well as no deed restrictions Current student yield: 3.33 Bluebonnet Elementary Cedar Creek Estates 107 total lots 107 VDL All streets paved, waiting on owners to build No time restrictions on home construction, as well as no deed restrictions Bluebonnet Elementary 10

11 Active Development MPH Capital Management, INC cont. Rio Vista Ranch 207 total lots 91 occupied 116 VDL No time restrictions on home construction, as well as no deed restrictions Current student yield: 1.2 Cedar Creek Elementary 11

12 Manufactured Home Update January 2017 October 2017 There were 322 new manufactured homes added within Bastrop ISD between Jan and Oct The district added 69 more new manufactured homes than the same period last year 12

13 Multi-Family Yield Analysis Bastrop ISD has 417 students residing in 1,292 multi-family units The district average apartment yield is 0.33 The district average manufactured home community yield is

14 Student Distribution Year Difference Total Students 10,275 10,440 10, Out of District Unmatched Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 10,075 10,191 10, Multi-Family Students in MF MF Units % Students in MF 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 0.2% MF Yield Single Family Students in SF 9,676 9,816 10, SF Parcels 15,223 15,988 17,005 1,782 % Students in SF 96.0% 96.3% 96.1% 0.1% SF Yield Manufactured Home Community Students in MH MH Units % Students in MH 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% -0.2% MH Yield % of Bastrop ISD students reside on single family lots Single family yield has declined by 0.04 since

15 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2013/ , / , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , , % 2020/ , , % 2021/ , , % 2022/ ,016 1,146 1, , % 2023/ , ,186 1, , % 2024/ , ,105 1, , % 2025/ ,007 1,015 1, ,160 1,015 1, , % 2026/ ,052 1,054 1,101 1,027 1,099 1, , % 2027/ ,005 1,031 1,094 1,084 1,143 1,197 1,009 1, , % % Growth *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Bastrop ISD will reach 11,000 students by year growth = 1,701 students 2022/23 enrollment = 12, year growth = 2,721 students 2027/28 enrollment = 13,624 15

16 Ten Year Forecast By Campus Capacity w/ HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus portables 2016/ / / / / / / / / / / /28 Bluebonnet Elementary Cedar Creek Elementary Emile Elementary Lost Pines Elementary Mina Elementary ,036 Red Rock Elementary ELEMENTARY SCHOOL TOTALS 4,259 4,239 4,322 4,446 4,621 4,773 4,971 5,030 5,025 5,073 5,103 5,154 Elementary Absolute Growth Elementary Percent Growth 1.07% -0.47% 1.96% 2.87% 3.94% 3.29% 4.15% 1.19% -0.10% 0.96% 0.59% 1.00% Bastrop Intermediate ,027 1,090 1,083 1,096 Cedar Creek Intermediate ,003 1,016 1,023 INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,595 1,739 1,771 1,794 1,765 1,742 1,745 1,814 2,007 2,093 2,100 2,119 Intermediate Absolute Growth intermediate Percent Growth 5.84% 9.03% 1.86% 1.25% -1.62% -1.30% 0.20% 3.95% 10.65% 4.28% 0.32% 0.89% Bastrop Middle School ,096 1,164 Cedar Creek Middle School , ,030 1,061 Gateway School (5th-8th) MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 1,615 1,622 1,756 1,881 1,920 1,965 1,934 1,908 1,913 1,934 2,134 2,233 Middle School Absolute Growth Middle School Percent Growth 2.93% 0.43% 8.26% 7.14% 2.08% 2.31% -1.56% -1.35% 0.27% 1.12% 10.30% 4.66% Bastrop High School 1,950 1,329 1,404 1,431 1,453 1,506 1,582 1,706 1,797 1,860 1,909 1,889 1,905 Cedar Creek High School 1,550 1,479 1,568 1,569 1,655 1,742 1,851 1,904 1,966 1,913 1,887 1,859 1,869 Gateway School (9th-12th) Genesis High School Colorado River Collegiate Acad HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 3,070 3,303 3,337 3,449 3,592 3,777 3,954 4,107 4,117 4,140 4,092 4,118 High School Absolute Growth High School Percent Growth 2.74% 7.59% 1.03% 3.36% 4.15% 5.15% 4.69% 3.87% 0.24% 0.56% -1.16% 0.64% DISTRICT TOTALS 10,539 10,903 11,186 11,570 11,898 12,256 12,604 12,859 13,062 13,241 13,429 13,624 District Absolute Growth District Percent Growth 2.5% 3.5% 2.6% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% *Yellow box = Campus enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity 16

17 Summary Bastrop County s unemployment rate is below 3%. Bastrop ISD has more than 1,400 lots currently available to build on. Rivers Bend at Pecan Park anticipates building 70 new homes a year. The developer behind XS Ranch has filed for bankruptcy, and at this time the development is on hold. BISD can expect an increase of roughly 1,700 students during the next 5 years. 2022/23 enrollment projection = 12,604. Bastrop ISD is projected to have 13,600 students for the 2027/28 school year. 17