HOUSING LEADS THE REBOUND. May 2 nd, 2013
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1 HOUSING LEADS THE REBOUND May 2 nd, 2013
2 Economic Conditions Texas gained 329,500 jobs between March 2012 and March 2013 continuing to lead the nation in job growth. The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 74 consecutive months. Unemployment rates Texas Labor Market Review (April) U.S. 7.6% Texas 6.3% DFW MSA 6.2% Texas sales tax receipts for March 2013 were 5.5 percent higher than for March (Susan Combs, Comptroller) Sales tax collections have increased for 36 consecutive months (yearover year. (Susan Combs, Comptroller) Oil and natural gas production tax collections for fiscal 2013 were 13 percent higher than collections during (Susan Combs, Comptroller) 2
3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Change in Emp. February Total Job % Rank MSA Employment Gains Change 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA 5,316, , % 2 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX 2,752, , % 3 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Isla 8,509, , % 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 3,064, , % 5 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CA 1,994,000 59, % 6 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA 2,369,000 57, % 7 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI 4,316,500 55, % 8 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 1,722,100 46, % 9 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 1,787,700 41, % 10 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-W 1,766,100 41, % 11 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA 3,033,100 39, % 12 Denver-Aurora CO 1,249,900 37, % 13 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 2,306,000 36, % 14 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL 1,180,300 33, % 15 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 840,100 32, % Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA
4 National Economic Overview Top 15 MSAs Ranked by Ann. SF Permits on February 2013 Rank MSA Permits Change 1 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land TX 29,683 6,088 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 18,062 3,508 3 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 12,135 3,974 4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC- 11,671 1,797 5 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA 10,157 3,642 6 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 8,460 2,505 7 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 8,137 1,678 8 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 7,371 2,576 9 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 7,072 1, New York-Northern New Jersey-Long 6,966 1, Las Vegas-Paradise NV 6,655 2, Raleigh-Cary NC 6,597 1, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL 6,209 1, Denver-Aurora CO 6,077 2, Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI 5,830 1,496 Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA 4
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6 Foreclosure Rates Improving Texas 1 in 2,209 California 1 in 739 Nevada 1 in 376 Florida 1 in 317 Source: RealtyTrac
7 Foreclosure Rates Improving Spring 2013 Tarrant County 1 in 1,583 Dallas County 1 in 1,505 Denton County 1 in 1,839 Collin County 1 in 1,791 Harris County 1 in 1,666 Travis County 1 in 2,830 Spring 2012 Tarrant County 1 in 652 Dallas County 1 in 642 Travis County 1 in 1,268 Harris County 1 in 801 Source: RealtyTrac
8 Dallas/Fort Worth Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Mar-13 % Change YTD Sales 17,397 19% Average Price $205,415 7% Median Price $159,400 8% Listings 22,081-22% DOM 65-24% Months Supply % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 8
9 Dallas/Fort Worth Market SFD TH Starts and Closings 60,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 50,000 Annual Starts & Closings 40,000 30,000 20,000 18,827 10,000 16,868-1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 9
10 Dallas/Fort Worth Market Multiple Listing Service Annual Sales 100,000 95,000 90,000 Annual Sales 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 50,000 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-02 Mar-01 10
11 Texas Source: Real Estate Center
12 Dallas Source: Real Estate Center
13 Fort Worth Source: Real Estate Center
14 Austin Source: Real Estate Center
15 Houston Source: Real Estate Center
16 MLS Average Price
17 MLS Months Inventory
18 Dallas/Fort Worth Market Product Price Changes 6,847 plans offered in 1Q13 & 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4Q12 Annualized Average Price Change 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 18
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21 Region 10 Region / / / /13 Rank District Name Enrollment Enrollment Growth 1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,285 2 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,866 3 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2,827 4 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,789 5 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,682 6 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,488 7 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,282 8 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,018 9 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1, FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1, PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1, ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1, LIFE CHARTER SCHOOL 2,829 4,206 1, LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1, DALLAS ISD 157, ,915 1, OAK CLIFF ACADEMY (DALLAS) 526 1,622 1, WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1, COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1, GARLAND ISD 57,169 58, FAITH FAMILY ACADEMY OF OAK CLIFF 1,233 2, / / / /13 Rank District Name Enrollment Enrollment Growth 1 NORTHWEST ISD 11,898 17,813 5,915 2 DENTON ISD 20,892 25,782 4,890 3 FORT WORTH ISD 78,857 83,491 4,634 4 KELLER ISD 29,458 33,365 3,907 5 PARADIGM ACCELERATED SCHOOL 163 3,863 3,700 6 EAGLE MT SAGINAW ISD 14,165 17,731 3,566 7 MANSFIELD ISD 29,696 32,883 3,187 8 HARMONY SCIENCE ACAD (FORT WORTH) 412 3,422 3,010 9 LEWISVILLE ISD 49,636 52,522 2, ARLINGTON ISD 62,863 65,005 2, BIRDVILLE ISD 22,063 24,189 2, BURLESON ISD 9,047 10,581 1, HURST EULESS BEDFORD ISD 20,392 21,819 1, LITTLE ELM ISD 5,409 6, WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 5,716 6, ARLINGTON CLASSICS ACADEMY 430 1, EVERMAN ISD 4,746 5, LAKE WORTH ISD 2,853 3, CASTLEBERRY ISD 3,422 3, KRUM ISD 1,506 1,
22 DFW San Antonio REGION 5 YEAR 2007/ /13 CHANGE PERCENT 1 383, ,490 34, % 2 105, , % 3 52,496 53,528 1, % 4 1,031,462 1,123,557 92, % 5 80,712 81,986 1, % 6 161, ,412 16, % 7 164, ,293 6, % 8 56,778 56, % 9 38,889 38, % , ,920 66, % , ,831 52, % , ,025 12, % , ,872 35, % 14 47,206 55,738 8, % 15 47,692 48, % 16 80,040 86,440 6, % 17 78,636 83,330 4, % 18 75,222 83,305 8, % , ,814 9, % , ,036 49, % STATE 4,671,493 5,075, , % Houston Austin
23 23
24 Summary Positives Texas economy continues to out perform the nation. DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio will continue to lead major cities in job growth. Texas Annual Job Growth areas (March 2013 March 2012): 329,500 nonagricultural Professional and Business Services (61,200 jobs 4.4%) Mining (16,000 jobs 6.0%) Construction (39, %) Trade, Transportation and Utilities (53, %) Leisure and Hospitality (67, %) (Texas Workforce Commission) Housing will return to being an economic driver! Creating jobs and spurring manufacturing Property values beginning to improve!! Concerns Vacant Developed lot supply is tight! MLS inventory is low could see surge of new listings! 24
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