Pearland Independent School District
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1 Pearland Independent School District Fall 2013 Demographic Study Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Tomorrow
2 Economic Conditions Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. (City Journal Winter 2013) DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. (Metrostudy) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 80 consecutive months. ( ) In 2011, Houston became the 5 th largest MSA in the country with DFW the 4 th behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013) - U.S. 7.3% - Texas 6.3% - Houston MSA 6.1% - Brazoria County 6.5% - Pearland 4.7% Apartment vacancy rate is below 7% which has led to an average monthly rent of $903, a 4.8% increase over last year. Houston MSA builders put up 7,676 new homes in the last quarter, a 14 percent increase year over year. (Metrostudy) 2
3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept Austin, TX, 4.0% McAllen, TX, 3.7% Houston, TX, 3.5% Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, 3.5% Ocala, FL, 3.4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3.4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3.4% Dallas, TX, 3.4% Laredo, TX, 3.3% Brownsville, TX, 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3
4 National Economic Overview Top 5 MSAs Ranked by Annualized New Home Starts 2Q13 Source: Metrostudy 4
5 Houston Housing Market Starts and Closings 5
6 Houston Housing Market Year over Year Change in Price and Price/Sq Ft Source: Housing Intelligence Pro 6
7 Houston Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 22,998-19% DOM 57-24% Monthly Supply % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 7
8 Region 4 and 6 Growth 2007/ /13 Legend 5 Year Change 5 YR Change Negative >
9 Regional Enrollment Trends Region 4 Region / /13 Enrollment Enrollment 2007/ /13 Growth Rank DISTNAME 1 CYPRESS-FAIRBANKS ISD 96, ,009 13,172 2 KATY ISD 54,402 64,561 10,159 3 ALDINE ISD 60,083 65,684 5,601 4 LAMAR CONSOLIDATED ISD 21,936 26,125 4,189 5 HUMBLE ISD 32,970 37,092 4,122 6 KLEIN ISD 42,935 47,043 4,108 7 HOUSTON ISD 199, ,330 3,796 8 ALVIN ISD 15,329 18,888 3,559 9 CLEAR CREEK ISD 36,314 39,631 3, PASADENA ISD 50,757 53,671 2, SPRING ISD 33,249 36,093 2, SPRING BRANCH ISD 32,040 34,851 2, PEARLAND ISD 17,090 19,651 2, TOMBALL ISD 9,388 11,771 2, SHELDON ISD 5,811 7,565 1, FORT BEND ISD 67,992 69,578 1, DICKINSON ISD 8,228 9,749 1, GOOSE CREEK CISD 20,354 21,822 1, GALENA PARK ISD 21,114 22, BARBERS HILL ISD 3,708 4, /08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/ /13 Growth Rank DISTNAME 1 CONROE ISD 46,524 53,925 7,401 2 NEW CANEY ISD 8,676 11,556 2,880 3 COLLEGE STATION ISD 9,204 11,180 1,976 4 MONTGOMERY ISD 6,094 7,190 1,096 5 MAGNOLIA ISD 11,051 11, BRYAN ISD 14,827 15, WILLIS ISD 5,945 6, HUNTSVILLE ISD 6,164 6, BUFFALO ISD SPLENDORA ISD 3,378 3, ANDERSON-SHIRO CONS ISD TRINITY ISD 1,170 1, SEALY ISD 2,598 2, BURTON ISD MUMFORD ISD NAVASOTA ISD 2,939 3, SHEPHERD ISD 1,816 1, GROVETON ISD GAUSE ISD CAMERON ISD 1,567 1,
10 Houston MSA New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Katy ISD 3,513 3,254 2,968 3,938 2 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 3,029 2,818 2,822 7,281 3 Fort Bend ISD 2,970 2,581 2,840 5,807 4 Houston ISD 2,744 2,285 3,063 4,243 5 Conroe ISD 1,842 1,642 2,946 4,129 6 Lamar CISD 1,714 1,510 2,739 3,249 7 Klein ISD 1,615 1,454 1,946 3,633 8 Tomball ISD 1,231 1,341 1,800 2,067 9 Humble ISD 1,321 1,274 2,172 3, Alvin ISD ,594 3, Clear Creek ISD , Aldine ISD ,774 4, Spring ISD ,580 2, New Caney ISD , Pasadena ISD Goose Creek ISD Montgomery ISD , Dickinson ISD Spring Branch ISD Magnolia ISD , Friendswood ISD Pearland ISD Sheldon ISD , Barbers Hill ISD Waller ISD
11 New Housing Activity Pearland ISD Housing Activity Starts & Closings 4Q11-2Q13 Inventory is very low, below 70 units. That is only a 6 month s supply. Starts were down 2Q13, look for 3Q13 to have strong starts due to the 44 new home closes, 14 more than the starts. 11
12 Housing Activity Current PISD District Profile Status Model Homes Finished Vacant Under Construction Vacant Developed Lots Future Lots Through 2Q13 12
13 Future Housing Activity Highland Crossing-Future Location McHard Road Highland Crossing Cockrell Elementary Low $200 s Beazer Homes 81-Acres New Homes 13
14 Future Housing Activity Rocky Creek Estates-Future Location Rocky Creek Estates High $200 s Meritage Homes 56 New Homes Future Site 14
15 Multi-Family Housing Yields Multi-Family Yields Multifamily communities Total students = 1,910 Three types = Lifestyle, Transition and Affordable ( ) ( ) ( ) 15
16 Enrollment History Year (Oct.) EE Pre-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total Percent 2009/ ,378 1,429 1,507 1,503 1,473 1,506 1,361 1,325 1,319 1,377 1,331 1,245 1,136 18, / ,411 1,422 1,524 1,512 1,529 1,478 1,502 1,376 1,343 1,440 1,368 1,250 1,214 18, % 2011/ ,409 1,466 1,472 1,567 1,533 1,527 1,510 1,521 1,393 1,425 1,443 1,301 1,226 19, % 2012/ ,360 1,486 1,522 1,495 1,567 1,575 1,572 1,547 1,543 1,464 1,431 1,360 1,287 19, % 2013/ ,391 1,431 1,506 1,523 1,536 1,610 1,625 1,612 1,575 1,628 1,489 1,389 1,318 20, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year District starting to show signs of a maturing student population. District enrollment growth since 2009 = 1,717 students Middle School grades are the largest in the district. KG-3 rd = 5,851 5 th -8 th = 6,422 9 th -12 th = 5,824 16
17 Ten Year Forecast Year (Oct.) EE Pre-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/ ,378 1,429 1,507 1,503 1,473 1,506 1,361 1,325 1,319 1,377 1,331 1,245 1,136 18, / ,411 1,422 1,524 1,512 1,529 1,478 1,502 1,376 1,343 1,440 1,368 1,250 1,214 18, % 2011/ ,409 1,466 1,472 1,567 1,533 1,527 1,510 1,521 1,393 1,425 1,443 1,301 1,226 19, % 2012/ ,360 1,486 1,522 1,495 1,567 1,575 1,572 1,547 1,543 1,464 1,431 1,360 1,287 19, % 2013/ ,391 1,431 1,506 1,523 1,536 1,610 1,625 1,612 1,575 1,628 1,489 1,389 1,318 20, % 2014/ ,417 1,459 1,455 1,534 1,540 1,578 1,642 1,664 1,640 1,693 1,591 1,416 1,376 20, % 2015/ ,445 1,471 1,479 1,469 1,555 1,582 1,615 1,685 1,674 1,749 1,640 1,497 1,395 20, % 2016/ ,498 1,507 1,494 1,485 1,505 1,612 1,627 1,656 1,723 1,776 1,702 1,544 1,469 20, % 2017/ ,503 1,553 1,534 1,514 1,508 1,576 1,632 1,664 1,684 1,807 1,737 1,602 1,511 21, % 2018/ ,489 1,557 1,584 1,554 1,542 1,576 1,590 1,676 1,697 1,794 1,778 1,633 1,576 21, % 2019/ ,486 1,540 1,577 1,595 1,585 1,591 1,605 1,631 1,711 1,780 1,762 1,667 1,601 21, % 2020/ ,496 1,538 1,565 1,600 1,622 1,662 1,638 1,635 1,663 1,788 1,753 1,657 1,635 21, % 2021/ ,483 1,547 1,567 1,572 1,634 1,653 1,711 1,682 1,668 1,737 1,761 1,648 1,627 21, % 2022/ ,493 1,535 1,571 1,591 1,595 1,715 1,673 1,752 1,716 1,733 1,708 1,653 1,618 21, % 2023/ ,496 1,545 1,561 1,587 1,620 1,664 1,758 1,722 1,786 1,787 1,706 1,606 1,623 21, % Five year enrollment growth = 1,414 District enrollment = 21,218 in the year 2017 Ten year enrollment growth = 1,828 District enrollment = 21,853 in the year 2023 Total Growth Total Percent *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 17
18 Elementary Campus Ten Year Forecast Pearland ISD Capacity Fall Projections Campus Name 25/ / / / / / / / / / / /24 B Cockrell Elementary CJ Harris Elementary Challenger Elementary EA Lawhon Elementary HC Carleston Elementary Magnolia Elementary Massey Ranch Elementary Rustic Oak Elementary Shadycrest Elementary Silvercrest Elementary Silverlake Elementary Elementary Total 8,624 7,779 7,797 7,811 7,881 8,004 8,118 8,175 8,213 8,195 8,177 8,201 Elem. Growth
19 Middle School & High School Ten Year Forecast Pearland ISD Capacity Fall Projections Campus Name 25/ / / / / / / / / / / /24 Alexander Middle Leon H Sablatura Mid Rogers Middle Sam Jamison Mid Middle Total 3,675 3,235 3,220 3,197 3,239 3,208 3,166 3,196 3,300 3,364 3,388 3,422 Middle Growth Berry Miller JH Pearland JH East Pearland JH South Pearland JH West Junior High Total 3,575 3,186 3,303 3,358 3,378 3,347 3,372 3,341 3,297 3,349 3,467 3,507 Junior High Growth Glenda Dawson HS 2,000 2,115 2,089 2,137 2,098 2,103 2,168 2,204 2,195 2,168 2,108 2,055 Sheryl Searcy 9th 1, Pearland HS 2,650 2,135 2,146 2,229 2,387 2,508 2,606 2,614 2,601 2,599 2,595 2,610 Pace Center Turner College & Career HS 1, ,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 High School Total 7,400 5,821 6,072 6,277 6,488 6,655 6,779 6,808 6,830 6,771 6,710 6,719 High School Growth Brazoria County JJ AEP TOTAL 23,274 20,025 20,396 20,647 20,990 21,218 21,439 21,524 21,644 21,683 21,746 21,853 Student Growth
20 Summary Positives Texas economy continues to out-perform the nation. Houston #1 job growth city in the country. Houston job growth likely to continue with growth from the energy industry. Housing market strong with increasing values. Pearland ISD Pearland ISD is approaching build-out. District in position to add over 1,400 students in the next five years. Lawhon and Carleston over capacity in Four elementary schools over capacity in Rogers Middle over capacity in Berry JH over capacity in Berry and Pearland South over in Dawson H.S. over capacity in District enrollment to top 21,000 in the year
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