Coppell Independent School District

Transcription

1 Coppell Independent School District Fall 2013 Demographic Study Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Future

2 Economic Conditions Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. (City Journal Winter 2013) DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. (Metrostudy) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. ( ) DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013) - U.S. 7.6% - Texas 6.5% - DFW MSA 6.2% - Dallas County 6.4% - Coppell 5.4% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal) 2

3 Dallas/Fort Worth Job Market Annual Job Growth By Sector as of August 2013 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 3

4 DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings Annual Starts & Closings 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 21,013 18,855-3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 4

5 DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 23,422-14% DOM 52-25% Monthly Supply % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 5

6 Region 10 and 11 Growth 2007/ /13 Negative >

7 Regional Enrollment Trends Region 11 Region 10 Rank District Name 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/ /13 Growth 1 NORTHWEST ISD 11,898 17,813 5,915 2 DENTON ISD 20,892 25,782 4,890 3 FORT WORTH ISD 78,857 83,491 4,634 4 KELLER ISD 29,458 33,365 3,907 5 EAGLE MT SAGINAW ISD 14,165 17,731 3,566 6 MANSFIELD ISD 29,696 32,883 3,187 7 LEWISVILLE ISD 49,636 52,522 2,886 8 ARLINGTON ISD 62,863 65,005 2,142 9 BIRDVILLE ISD 22,063 24,189 2, BURLESON ISD 9,047 10,581 1, HURST EULESS BEDFORD ISD 20,392 21,819 1, LITTLE ELM ISD 5,409 6, WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 5,716 6, EVERMAN ISD 4,746 5, LAKE WORTH ISD 2,853 3, CASTLEBERRY ISD 3,422 3, KRUM ISD 1,506 1, AUBREY ISD 1,634 2, WEATHERFORD ISD 7,264 7, ALEDO ISD 4,444 4, Rank District Name 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/ /13 Growth 1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,285 2 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,866 3 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2,827 4 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,789 5 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,682 6 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,488 7 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,282 8 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,018 9 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1, FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1, PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1, ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1, LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1, DALLAS ISD 157, ,915 1, WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1, COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1, GARLAND ISD 57,169 58, DUNCANVILLE ISD 12,467 13, PRINCETON ISD 2,674 3, ROYSE CITY ISD 4,144 4,

8 Regional Enrollment Trends 2011/ /13 8

9 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,767 2,240 4,287 10,268 2 Northwest ISD 1,193 1,133 1,619 22,641 3 Denton ISD 1, ,538 14,448 4 Keller ISD ,375 3,364 5 Lewisville ISD ,499 2,010 6 Prosper ISD ,682 15,419 7 Dallas ISD ,175 7,340 8 Eagle Mtn. Saginaw ISD ,759 20,046 9 Mansfield ISD , Little Elm ISD , McKinney ISD ,315 3, Allen ISD ,023 1, Plano ISD , Rockwall ISD ,705 8, Crowley ISD ,009 8, Wylie ISD , Forney ISD ,528 11, Fort Worth ISD ,225 4, Burleson ISD , Anna ISD , Mesquite ISD , Coppell ISD , Crandall ISD Totals 20,384 18,098 48, ,328 9

10 New Housing Activity Cypress Waters 3 Multi-Family locations opened in 2Q13 with 676 units Phase 1 of the retail development is expected to be opening in 2Q14 Single Family locations are scheduled to begin later in the development Developers are estimating up to 10,000 residences when completed 10

11 Apartment and Mobile Home Yields CREEKSIDE MOBILE HOME PARK VILLAS AT COPPELL THE REGENCY BY THE LAKE nm TOWN CENTER TOWN CREEK COTTONWOOD CREEK nm MEADOWRIDGE nm TOWNHOMES TOWNLAKE OF COPPELL AUSTIN OAK PARK VILLAGE nm nm WILSON WINDANCE TOWNHOMES nm GOLDEN TRIANGLE MOBILE HOME PARK MOCKINGBIRD nm VILLAS OF VISTA RIDGE DENTON CREEK PINKERTON nm SUMMITT TOT_YLD THE ENCLAVE nm CAMDEN VALLEY PARK TREE TOP VILLAS CONDOS CASA VALLEY THE VILLAS CONDOS REFLECTIONS AT VALLEY RANCH SANTA ROSA 11

12 New Housing Activity 80 Starts Closings Housing Inventory Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total

13 Annual Closing Distribution 1Q13 Ran k Top 5 Subdivisions 1Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Subdivision Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings 1 Villas at Emerald Park Royal Oaks (Coppell) Grand Estates at Northlake Hills Alexander Court (Coppell) Hemingway Court TH TOTALS

14 Vacant Developed Lots 1Q13 Top 5 Subdivisions 1Q13 (Ranked by Vacant Developed Lots) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Red Hawk Villas Main Street Coppell Grand Estates at Northlake Hills Willow Park (Coppell) Hemingway Court TH 8 0 TOTALS

15 Future Lots 1Q13 Westhaven Blackberry Farm Top 7 Subdivisions 1Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Futur Rank Subdivision VDL e 1 Westhaven Blackberry Farm Addition Ridgecrest Estates Carter Addition Bellacere Addition Petterson Addition Villas of Southwestern 0 7 TOTALS

16 New Housing Activity 16

17 New Housing Activity 625 lots The Bridges at Las Colinas 415 lots 260 lots The Bridges at Las Colinas 415 Single Family Homes Phase 1 is under construction with 166 lots Future phases = 260 and 625 lots Total lots = 1,300 17

18 New Housing Activity Easthaven 58 Single Family Homes Still in planning stages Westhaven 297 Single Family Homes Still in planning stages Westhaven Easthaven 18

19 New Housing Activity Belmont Landing 55 Single Family Homes Lots delivered in 3Q14 Homes in the $400 s Belmont Landing 19

20 New Housing Activity Old Town Phase II Old Town Phase II 64 Single Family Homes Patio Homes site plan approved July 13 20

21 New Housing Activity Magnolia North Addition 28 Single Family Homes Plan approved on June 2013 Homes in the 500 s Denton Tap Road 21

22 Enrollment History Year (Oct.) EE Pre K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total Percent 2009/ , / , % 2011/ , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Enrollment has grown 1,377 since Growth rate has averaged 3.3% since

23 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth Year (Oct.) EE Pre K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/ , / , % 2011/ , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , % 2014/ , % 2015/ , % 2016/ ,001 1,020 1,026 1, , % 2017/ ,052 1,028 1,053 1, , % 2018/ ,008 1,029 1,079 1,063 1,122 1, , % 2019/ ,023 1,086 1,055 1,115 1,128 1,098 1, , % 2020/ ,005 1,017 1,044 1,096 1,115 1,091 1,184 1,104 1,109 1,043 13, % 2021/ ,008 1,037 1,055 1,071 1,123 1,128 1,152 1,158 1,158 1,116 1,080 14, % 2022/ ,013 1,047 1,085 1,110 1,153 1,155 1,166 1,216 1,132 1,170 1,087 14, % 2023/ ,054 1,062 1,099 1,143 1,189 1,187 1,194 1,230 1,190 1,144 1,139 14, % Total Percent *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 23

24 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus Current Fall Projections Campus Name 2013/ / / / / / / / / / /24 Austin Elementary Cottonwood Creek El Denton Creek El Lakeside Elementary Mockingbird Elementary Pinkerton Elementary Town Center Elementary Valley Ranch Elementary Wilson Elementary Elementary Total 5,190 5,313 5,386 5,524 5,634 5,798 5,933 6,077 6,224 6,348 6,477 Elem. Growth

25 Ten Year Forecast By Middle School & High School Campus Current Fall Projections Coppell Middle East ,006 1, ,029 1,047 1,083 1,091 1,104 Coppell Middle North ,006 1,028 1,057 Coppell Middle West ,001 1,083 1,142 1,215 1,248 1,265 1,314 1,355 1,409 Middle Total 2,667 2,768 2,918 3,047 3,133 3,171 3,256 3,302 3,403 3,474 3,570 Middle Growth Coppell High School 3,058 3,184 3,285 3,347 3,490 3,658 3,817 3,978 4,044 4,137 4,231 New Tech High School High School Total 3,502 3,609 3,711 3,767 3,936 4,109 4,270 4,440 4,512 4,605 4,703 High School Growth TOTAL 11,359 11,690 12,015 12,338 12,703 13,078 13,459 13,819 14,139 14,427 14,750 Student Growth

26 Summary Economy Texas economy continues to out-perform the nation with 7 of the top 10 job growth cities in the country. DFW #1 job growth city in the country in number of jobs created. DFW #2 in new home starts with more than 20,426 starts over the last 12 months. DFW market showing strong growth in sales and increasing values with the average home value up more than 9%. Coppell ISD Coppell ISD new home construction positioned for strong growth with several new developments to be delivered in the next 6-12 months. Five year enrollment growth of 1,719 students. Ten-Year enrollment growth 3,391 students. Pinkerton Elementary and Coppell West Middle catching most of the growth. Coppell West and East Middle schools over 1,000 enrollment in High School enrollment approaching 3,500 in the year District enrollment will likely exceed 13,000 fall