Bi-State Area Scenario Planning Workshop Agenda June 25-27, 2014 DRI, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno NV Stout A Conference Room

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1 WORKSHOP GOAL: Give participants exposure to two different scenario planning processes, and to evaluate how processes may be helpful to participants. WORKSHOP OBJECTIVES: 1. Introduce participants to scenario planning processes 2. Garner feedback on processes and how to use them 3. Explore how participants can incorporate Central Basin and Range Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) information into adaptation planning 4. Bring in different climate scenarios and driving forces to add to REA scenario and driving forces 5. Participation: fun, engaging, leading to new perspectives useful for further climate change-related planning/adaptation processes 6. Strategic Planning: to help managers think big about climate change over time, space, and organizational scales, and the interconnectedness of climate change with other forces of change, and to use scenarios as a device to explore the role of policies and management objectives in preparing for climate change challenge. 7. Exploration: To bring together information from different disciplines and sectors to highlight the complexity and interconnectedness of climate change with other problems. 8. Scientific Assessment: To combine qualitative and quantitative information about the future evolution of management challenges in the region, and help bridge diverse aspects of management challenges. DESIRED OUTCOMES: 1. Workshop participants understand the Bi-State and Scenario Planning Project. 2. Workshop participants understand a practical and inexpensive approach for developing divergent scenario narratives. 3. Participants have first-cut scenario narrative outlines (bullet points, time lines) to build out. 4. Workshop participants develop next steps for building out their scenarios. 5. Identify how research team can best support their individual management activities, information and resource needs, and steps for ensuring progress. 6. Workshop Participants are excited about getting started and moving forward. 1

2 DAY 1: OVERVIEW AND ADAPTATION FOR CONSERVATION TARGETS (ACT) SCENARIO PLANNING 8:30-8:45 Overview of Bi-State Area Scenario Planning Project 8:45-9:45 Introductions and Icebreaker Name, Agency, Position, Expertise, What is the mission of your organization? What is your biggest future climate (2060 and beyond) related concern or opportunity? o In other words: What do you want to hand off too next generation of managers? 9:45-10:15 Introduction to the Central Basin and Range Rapid Ecoregional Assessment 10:15-10:30 Break (coffee and snacks) 10:30-11:00 Overview of the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework This session will introduce the ACT Framework, and give an example of how it has been implemented in the Intermountain West. We will walk through the steps in the process, with a special emphasis on management objectives, conceptual modeling, hypotheses of change, intervention points, and identification of strategic actions the steps for which we anticipate having time to cover during the workshop. Objective: Orientation to the method that we will use during Day 1. 11:00-12:00 Review management objectives and begin refining conceptual model In this session, we will review the management question identified by the workshop steering committee, formulate a relevant and related management objective, and review and refine a conceptual model of factors affecting cheatgrass in the Central Great Basin. The conceptual model includes physical, biological, and human drivers of change affecting cheatgrass presence. Objective: Identify the key drivers that lead to cheatgrass presence, invasion, and dominance in the sage-steppe ecosystem. Arrive at a common understanding of how the system works. Set the stage for discussion of how future climate, biological, and human drivers may change the ecosystem during the next 50 or more years. 12:00-1:00 Lunch (provided by DRI) 2

3 1:00-1:30 Refine Conceptual Model 1:30-3:00 Assess potential impacts, and develop hypotheses of change In this session, we will assess the potential climate-related impacts to the cheatgrass/sage-steppe ecosystem. We will discuss the probable direction of future changes among linkages identified in the conceptual model. We will develop hypotheses of future ecosystem change (i.e., direct and indirect linkages between climate and cheatgrass, as mediated by key factors in the system), based on insights from the REA and from the expertise of participants. Objective: Gain common understanding of how climate affects the system. Identify how information from the REA can be used in adaptation planning. o 3:00-3:15 Break (coffee and snacks) 3:15-4:30 Identify intervention points and identify potential strategies In this session, we will identify the linkages, among elements in the conceptual model, that can be affected by management actions. We will also identify potential strategies that can be implemented in the near future, in order to address anticipated challenges that result from projected climate changes. Objective: Determine factors within the control of managers and associated actions to address climate change impacts in the Central Great Basin sage-steppe ecosystem. 4:30-5:00 Review the day s progress and discuss next steps, how does this relate to next day s Strategic Scenario Planning activities o 3

4 DAY 2: STRATEGIC SCENARIO PLANNING (SSP) 8:30-8:45 Overview of Day 2 8:45-9:15 Surprises of the Past There have been many surprises facing resources and managers in the past. Some were easily dealt with and others were not. There are legacy impacts of some surprises. Objective: Identify past surprises in the region related to factors outside the control of managers. 9:15-9:45 The Strategic Scenario Planning Process SSP purposefully focuses on influential forces that have substantial uncertainties those things that cause comments that We just don t know enough to consider that or Things could go either way, we just don t know. Objective: Understand today s workshop process for developing and using scenarios. Contrast with ACT. 9:45-10:15 Identifying Critical Drivers This activity considers factors likely to drive the challenges that managers will be facing managers in the future. Some critical factors are "pre-determined", or assumed to be relatively unchanging over the future. Others are inevitable, or highly likely in their future changes. Other factors are highly uncertain and form the basis for creation of scenarios. The focus is on outside factors that are beyond the control of managers within the region. Objective: To identify highly uncertain drivers of future change in the region. To identify pre-determined and inevitable drivers of the region's future. 10:15-10:30 Break (coffee and snacks) 10:30-11:00 Continue Identifying Critical Drivers 11:00-12:00 Create the Scenarios This produces scenarios that are divergent and challenging, yet plausible. The best scenarios span futures that differ in character, not just degree, and pose different types of challenges for management. 4

5 Objective: Create scenarios of using a combination of the critical driving forces you identified. Consider the impacts of individual scenarios. 12:00-1:00 Lunch (provided by DRI) 1:00-2:30 Continue Creating the Scenarios 2:30-2:45 Break (coffee and snacks) 2:45-4:30 Scenario Implications (2 hours) This explores the indirect and interacting effects of the driving forces and impacts of a specific scenario. We will identify management challenges and opportunities, without making any choices about specific management responses or choices. In particular, we will consider any vulnerabilities, shortages, and emergent needs, or opportunities, new capabilities, and emergent potential posed by the scenario. We will consider specifically what resources and which decision makers will be most affected by different aspects of the scenario and its impacts. Objective: Identify the implications of specific scenarios 4:30-5:00 Review the day s progress and discuss next steps 5

6 DAY 3: TYING IT ALL TOGETHER AND NEXT STEPS 8:30-8:45 8:45-10:15 Overview of today s sessions Review of outputs from Day 1 and 2 Tying the outputs together What can we achieve from using these methods and/or combining these methods? 10:15-10:30 Break (coffee and snacks) 10:30-12:00 Next Steps How do scenarios integrate into management actions and climate change adaptation planning? 12:00-1:00 Working Lunch (provided by DRI) Evaluations, adjourn All of the materials from the workshop, updates, and reports will be available on the project website, which can be found at: 6

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