Economic and Financial Knowledge-Based Processing

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2 Louis F. Pau. Claudio Gianotti Economic and Financial Knowledge-Based Processing With 67 Figures Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona

3 Research Professor Louis F. Pau Technical University of Denmark Bldg. 348/EMI DK-2800 Lyngby/Denmark Dr. Claudio Gianotti Via Renato Birolli no Milano/Italy ISBN-13: e-isbn-13: DOl: / This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustration, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereofis only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyri'ght Law of September 9, 1965, in its version ofjune 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1990 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1990 The use of registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use

4 To my daugther Isabelle M. M. Pau L.F. Pau To my father Gus, with my love and gratitude C. Gianotti

5 Acknowledgements Proper acknowledgements, with thanks, are hereby given to the following companies and persons: Digital Equipment Corp., for the permission to reproduce the cover image Massimo Ferrando, Fabrizio Scovenna, Torben Tambo for assistance in code development or testing Birgit Bruhn, Annett Bergstedt for typing of drafts to some Chapters We are grateful to the Editor for his support and encouragement

6 Contents A reader's guide... 1 o Introduction Introduction The strategic challenge to banks and insurance The strategic challenge to fmancial services The strategic challenge to economic analysis and decision making The strategic challenge for business management Conclusion Basic concepts Introduction Survey of AI applications in fmance and economics Case studies and examples The mortgage loan credit granting case study Problem statement Knowledge base Unification Probability Inference Explanations Knowledge acquisition Expert system architecture Risk analysis inference control structure AI and Decision support..., Applications of Artificial Intelligence in banking, financial services and economics The motivations for the use of AI Survey of development projects...; Development and delivery environments Generic domain utilities Inference control and conflict resolution strategies Table of projects Project references... 45

7 x Knowledge Representation futroduction Motivation Explicit vs. implicit knowledge The knowledge representation problem Knowledge for economic/fmancial reasoning Sources of economic/financial knowledge Knowledge representation languages and formal languages Segmentation of knowledge types for problem-solving Fundamental knowledge representation formalisms Classification criteria for knowledge representation languages Adequacy of knowledge representation formalisms Case study: a tax adviser.... '" Structure of a tax form Representation guidelines Knowledge representation formalisms The graph and tree data structures... " Motivation Graphs Trees Semantic networks Motivation Causality networks Application: a simple economic model Dependency graphs Logic Motivation An introduction to predicate calculus... '" Logic connectives Quantifiers Model theory Guidelines for logic-based knowledge representation Logic inference Clausal logic and resolution Logic and semantic networks Application: representing part of the Italian fiscal regulation Pros and cons of logic Rules Motivation Facts Rules Rules as a knowledge representation formalism Applications of rule-based representation Reasoning with rules The inference engine Metarules Rules vs. procedural programming Rules vs. logic Concluding remarks Frames Motivation Frames, slots and facets Procedural attachment Interpretations of frames

8 XI Taxonomies Hierarchical networks Other relations among frames Comparative descriptions Inheritance Inheritance mechanisms Frames and semantic networks Frames vs. logic Temporal reasoning Introduction Temporal logic Time-interval reasoning Temporal constraints Feature extraction in the time domain Temporal inference Artificial Intelligence Programming Languages Introduction Syntax and semantics AI programming languages Symbols and symbolic expressions Interactivity and language interpreters A classification of programming languages Language syntax and parsing Language syntax Language parsing Context-free and context-sensitive languages LISP A frrst look Atoms and lists Evaluation rules for atomic expressions USP functions Functional composition and abstraction Application: computing elasticities in economics Functional vs. procedural programming Boolean functions, IF and COND Symbolic data structures Assignment and evaluation of the data... " Properties and association lists Dynamic data typing Identity of programs and data... " Application: computing compound interests by recursion Prolog Beliefs in Prolog... ~ Facts Ru1es Goals Structured objects: tuples, lists and trees Parse trees of Prolog expressions Pattern-matching and unification Infinite ~s Recursion

9 XII The inference engine..., 168 Controlling backtracking:! Identity of data and programs Application: a Prolog knowledge-based tax adviser Object-oriented programming... '"... " Introduction Object-oriented programming concepts Search and causal analysis Motivation State-based representation of problems Problem graphs Implicit representation of graphs and trees Search and knowledge Search procedures A generic search procedure Classification of search methods Ap~li~ati<?n-sp~cif~c search and mixed procedures Opttnnzal1on cntena Application: a simple economic model in graph form Simple propagation Propagation with alternatives: depth-first Representation of directed graphs A description of the depth-first algorithm An implementation of depth-frrst algorithm Examples Introducing side effects: breadth-first A description of the breadth-frrst algorithm An implementation of breadth-first algorithm Examples Case study: causal analysis in linear economic models Causality representation in economic models Causal analysis of a simple economic model Causal ordering Algorithm for causal assignment An algorithm for causal analysis and consistency Heuristic search methods H1l1-climbing algorithm Beam-search algorithm Best-first algorithm A * algorithm Neural processing and inductive learning Introduction Neural processing for learning and classification Neural models Neural learning Neuralleaming algorithms

10 XIII Consultation Performance evaluation Inductive leaming Introduction Concept learning Induction algorithms ID3 induction of decision trees Examples Extensions to neural processing Neural decision logic Learning how to forecast Other applications Technical analysis for securities trading futroduction Curve generation by a syntactic grammar Curve segmentation Segmentation of noisy curves Analysis evaluation rules Teclmical analysis on several curves and software implementation Time series analysis..."..." Examples of concurrent trading rules Off-line analysis forlearning Forecasting Trade generation Intelligent information screens futroduction Selective object-oriented data acquisition Knowledge-based infonnation screens Knowledge-based filters for financial infonnation screens Infonnation retrieval aspects Data fusion Correlation Natural language front-ends to economic models... ~ Introduction Prolog parser for NL front-ends Definite clause grammar in Prolog Translation of DCG grammar rules into Prolog clauses DCG parser

11 XIV Reasoning from NL analysis Form input Validation of input Modeling from NL analysis Generation of temporal reasoning from NL analysis Trade selection with uncertain reasoning on technical indicators futroduction... '" The theory of Dempster-Shafer Basic probability assignment Credibility belief and plausibility Pooling evidence Application: pooling evidence about trading Currency risk management futroduction: risk planning over time Single period model Multi-period model Knowledge-based risk management Risk allocation procedure Reasoning procedures in knowledge-based systems for economics and management futroduction Objects in decision analysis Classification of decision methods Perception criterion Rationality criterion Action criterion Logics and constraints Truth maintenance as rational decision-making Search over time and disequilibrium Conflict resolution Search over AND/OR graphs Power relations and gaming for the selection of solutions Game theory and AI Defmitions Relations to search strategies

12 Appendix 1 Software Codes Prolog code for the tax adviser Starter... ~ Control rules A knowledge base about fiscal regulations Queries to the user about unknown facts An algorithm for causal and consistency analysis A qualitative algebra The propagator The propagation module The context maintenance module The state update module The output of the propagation Anexample Prolog natural language parser for economic statements Vocabulary for the NL parser DCG grammar for economic analysis Parser for Sections 3.1 and Appendix 2 Predefined LISP and Prolog expressions Predefined LISP functions Predefined Prolog predicates xv Bibliography Subject index

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