# Northern Michigan University - Winter 2017 MA 171 Introduction to Probability and Statistics 3102 Jamrich Hall

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1 Northern Michigan University - Winter 2017 MA 171 Introduction to Probability and Statistics 3102 Jamrich Hall Section Mon. and Weds. 4:00 p.m. Section Mon. and Weds. 6:00 p.m. Instructor: Office: Phone: Office Hours: Pat Jennings by arrangement (leave message) Note: the best way to contact me is by . Be sure to leave your phone number so that I can call you back Mon Weds 5:40 to 6:00 and 7:40 to 8:00 (In the classroom) Other times by appointment Course Content: The course consists of a study of the methods of elementary probability and statistics. Some time is devoted to finding probabilities for both discrete and continuous probability functions, and discussing the role probability plays in estimation and decision making. The main emphasis of the course, however, is on methods of describing data, finding sampling estimates and testing hypotheses. Throughout the course, applications are stressed as is the interpretation and understanding of the statistics and methods used. This course satisfies the Formal Communication Studies requirement. This course is designed to introduce students to the ways in which information and ideas are expressed using a communication system other than English. Such courses should foster the student s ability to conceptualize and communicate in an orderly, rational manner. Characteristics of a communication system include: 1) possession of a grammar; 2) operation from an established set of rules; 3) reasoning properties such as deduction, inference drawing and problem solving. This includes courses in languages and those in which the central focus of the course is on statistics, computers or formal logic. Text: Elementary Statistics, A Step by Step Approach, Seventh Edition, Allan G. Bluman (2015 McGraw Hill)

3 Grading: Grades will be weighted according to the following: Chapter Tests 70% Quizzes 10% Final Exam 20% The final grade will be a weighted average of the above corresponding to the following scale: A A B B B C C C D D F less than 60 There will be no other grades given. Incompletes will be pursuant to University policy. The final exam for the 4:00 pm class is scheduled for Monday, May 1 at 4:00 pm. The final exam for the 6:00 pm class is scheduled for Monday, May 1 at 6:00 pm. You must take the final exam during the period that you are registered for unless you make other arrangements with your instructor by . Chapter Tests: All chapter tests will be given during class and you will have an hour to take each test. There will be a minimum of 5 chapter tests, but there may be more, depending on how the class goes. If it turns out that there are more than 5 tests, I will drop the lowest test score. All chapter tests will be closed book and open notes. You may use only your own notes, now someone else s. You may use your laptop for tests. However, you may only use Excel, TI Interactive, and any documents that I send you by . You may not use any resources online. Note that for some tests, I will you a data file before the test. Quizzes: Quizzes will be given once or twice a week, unannounced, usually spontaneous, and cannot be made up under any circumstances. The easiest way to pass a quiz is to show up in class. If you miss only one or two quizzes, it will not significantly affect your grade, but, missing

5 Disabilities: Course Objectives: If you have a need for disability-related accommodations or services, please inform the Coordinator of Disability Services in the Dean of Students Office at 2001 C. B. Hedgcock Building ( ). Reasonable and effective accommodations and services will be provided to students if requests are made in a timely manner, with appropriate documentation, in accordance with federal, state, and University guidelines. The course consists of a study of the methods of elementary probability and statistics. Some time is devoted to finding probabilities for both discrete and continuous probability functions, and discussing the role probability plays in estimation and decision making. The main emphasis of the course, however, is on methods of describing data, finding sampling estimates and testing hypotheses. Throughout the course, applications are stressed as is the interpretation and understanding of the statistics and methods used. The student will: become familiar with basic probability and statistical methodology and terminology; learn how to present data graphically and be able to read and interpret such presentations; learn how to calculate estimates and other statistics, and interpret and compare statistics; find probabilities and understand the role of probability in statistical decision making; learn how to test a hypothesis and use statistical procedures to help make decisions; and be able to identify an appropriate statistical procedure to use in a given situation and identify when a procedure is improperly used. Assessment of these course objectives will be through chapter tests, quizzes and the final exam

6 Course Content (The numbers below do not necessarily correspond to the chapters in the textbook) 1. Methods for Describing Sets of Data o Types of data o Graphical methods for describing data o Measures of central tendency o Measures of variability and relative standing 2. Probability o Events, sample spaces and simple probabilities o Compound events and rules for calculating their probabilities o Conditional probability 3. Discrete Random Variables o Probability distributions for discrete random variables o Expected values o Binomial distribution 4. Continuous Random Variables o Continuous probability distributions o The normal distribution o Approximating a binomial distribution with a normal distribution 5. Sampling Distributions o Sampling distribution o The Central Limit Theorem 6. Estimation and Tests of Hypotheses o Point and confidence interval estimates and tests of hypotheses for: A population mean: large and small samples A binomial population proportion A population variance o Inferences about: The difference between two means: independent samples The difference between two means: dependent samples The difference between two binomial proportions 7. Analysis of Variance 8. The Chi Square Test and Contingency Tables o One dimensional count data o Contingency tables 9. Simple Linear Regression o Least squares model and assumptions o Regression estimates and prediction o Estimating and interpreting correlation o Inferences about the slope and correlation

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