Demographic Update. Richardson Independent School District. January Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

Transcription

1 Richardson Independent School District Demographic Update January 2016 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions DFW Area (December 2015) Richardson Unemployment Rate U.S. 4.8% Texas 4.5% -0.6% DFW MSA 4.0% Richardson 3.6% 3.0% Annualized DFW Job Growth 101,200 new jobs created in the last 12 months 28,074 3Q15 DFW Home Sales 8.9% more than the third quarter in 2014 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Texas Quarterly Housing Report 2

3 5,400,000 5,200,000 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 4,399,019 Texas Enrollment Trends Total State Enrollment 5,232,065 5,151,925 4,933,617 5,075,840 4,847,844 4,998,579 4,671,493 4,749,571 4,519,164 4,592, /15 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,232,065 Total Growth 80, ,000 Enrollment Change 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,145 73,685 78,644 98,273 85,773 78,078 64,962 77,261 80,140 76,085 3

4 Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends 4

5 Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends Region 10 Region 11 Rank District 2009/10 Enrollment 2014/15 Enrollment 5-YEAR Change (09/10-14/15) 5-YEAR PCT Growth 1 Frisco ISD 33,973 49,644 15, % 2 Richardson ISD 34,843 38,618 3, % 3 Prosper ISD 3,637 7,074 3, % 4 Dallas ISD 157, ,253 3, % 5 Mesquite ISD 37,272 40,273 3, % 6 Allen ISD 18,242 20,664 2, % 7 Wylie ISD (Collin) 12,063 14,039 1, % 8 Grand Prairie ISD 26,395 28,340 1, % 9 Coppell ISD 9,982 11,570 1, % 10 Irving ISD 33,679 35,191 1, % 11 Forney ISD 7,813 8,995 1, % 12 Rockwall ISD 13,843 14,992 1, % 13 Waxahachie ISD 6,924 7,968 1, % 14 McKinney ISD 23,933 24, % 15 Lancaster ISD 6,176 7, % 16 Princeton ISD 2,996 3, % 17 Melissa ISD 1,378 2, % 18 Highland Park ISD (Dallas) 6,448 7, % 19 Anna ISD 2,246 2, % 20 Royse City ISD 4,450 5, % Rank DISTRICT 2009/10 Enrollment 2014/15 Enrollment 5-YEAR Change (09/10-14/15) 5-YEAR PCT Growth 1 Fort Worth ISD 80,209 85,975 5, % 2 Northwest ISD 14,164 19,831 5, % 3 Denton ISD 22,825 27,020 4, % 4 Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD 16,126 18,659 2, % 5 Lewisville ISD 50,840 53,356 2, % 6 Keller ISD 31,569 33,619 2, % 7 Mansfield ISD 31,662 33,410 1, % 8 Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD 20,762 22,416 1, % 9 Birdville ISD 22,897 24,389 1, % 10 Burleson ISD 9,896 10,983 1, % 11 Little Elm ISD 6,112 6, % 12 White Settlement ISD 6,051 6, % 13 Everman ISD 5,053 5, % 14 Krum ISD 1,613 2, % 15 Aledo ISD 4,589 5, % 16 Castleberry ISD 3,641 4, % 17 Aubrey ISD 1,784 2, % 18 Arlington ISD 63,487 63, % 19 Brock ISD 854 1, % 20 Azle ISD 5,841 6, % 5

6 Richardson Housing Market Year Over Year Comparisons YTD Sales (1,138 YTD Sales Nov. 2015) 3% Average Price ($243,448 Nov. 2015) -22% Median Price ($225,000 Nov. 2015) -7% -7% 14% 16% Number of Listings (100 Nov. 2015) Days on the Market (25 Days) Existing Home Inventory (1.0 Month s Supply) 6

7 New Home Richardson ISD Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Starts Closings Inventory Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total New home starts have more than doubled between 3Q14 and 3Q15 Richardson ISD was on pace to close more than 120 homes in 2015 New home inventory remains in a good position to sustain the current closing rate 7

8 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 3Q15 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,907 2,768 3,621 8,915 2 Denton ISD 1,846 1,694 2,706 16,613 3 Prosper ISD 1,570 1,374 2,925 31,759 4 Northwest ISD 1,151 1,105 1,722 22,841 5 Lewisville ISD 1, ,194 3,142 6 Keller ISD ,015 2,372 7 Dallas ISD 1, ,334 5,641 8 Eagle Mtn. - Saginaw ISD ,328 19,796 9 Little Elm ISD ,676 4, Rockwall ISD ,836 8, Allen ISD , McKinney ISD ,425 5, Mansfield ISD ,012 5, Crowley ISD ,319 8, Wylie ISD , HEB ISD , Forney ISD , Plano ISD , Midlothian ISD ,255 20, Garland ISD , Grapevine-Colleyville ISD Richardson ISD Crandall ISD ,158 8

9 Residential Activity Lake Highlands Town Center Possible future apt. complex Approx. 280 future units Possible future assisted-living units Approx. 250 units Lake Highlands Town Center 1,000 future apartments, condos and townhomes 220,000 sq.ft. of retail 30,000 sq.ft. of office space Sprouts grocery has signed a lease for 30,000 sq.ft. and will be opening in 2017 Bella Palms Future apartment complex under review with the city of Richardson 257 units Impact likely in 2017 The Haven at Lake Highlands complete and leasing 22 Current students Current student yield: 0.11 Possible future Townhome or single family units Approx. 50 future units 9

10 Residential Activity Brick Row Townhomes Brick Row Townhomes 175 townhomes Final 15 units under construction 30 units built in current students Current student yield: 0.12 $254K-$319K Richardson Terrace Elementary 10

11 Residential Activity Villas of Nantucket Villas of Nantucket 13 townhome lots 2 under construction Built-out by mid 2017 $350K-$450K Northrich Elementary 11

12 Residential Activity Palisades and Jefferson Glenville Palisades 80 townhomes and 600 future luxury apartments Split between Richardson and Plano ISD 58 SF lots within RISD K Hovnanian Homes Prairie Creek Elementary Jefferson Glenville Future 379 unit apartment complex Breaking ground early 2016 Impact in 2017 Mark Twain Elementary 12

13 Residential Activity Centurion American Development Plano ISD Future Centurion American Development 900 total homes (proposed) 720 single-family homes 180 townhomes No timeframe for development at this time ~180 total acres ~75 acres within Richardson ISD ~105 acres within Plano ISD Mohawk Elementary 13

14 Residential Activity Buckingham Townes of Buckingham 81 townhome lots 6 finished vacant 2 models 12 U/C $290K - $335K Richland Elementary Buckingham Flats 82 unit apartment complex Currently under construction First units leasing mid 2016 Richland Elementary 14

15 Residential Activity Crest at Park Central Crest at Park Central 387 total units Under construction First units complete and leasing All units complete early current students Hamilton Park Magnet 15

16 Richardson ISD Home Values Percent of Total SF Lots < $50K 0.4% $51K $100K 6.3% $101K $250K 60.0% $251K - $500K 30.0% > $500K 3.1% Average RISD Home Value: $226,598 *Home values based on appraisal district values 16

17 Multi Family Yields 17

18 Student Mobility Year Change Newcomers 7,681 7,635 7, Leavers -7,449-7,290-7, Net Student Change * Student geocode data is taken from an enrollment snapshot, totals may vary from official enrollment reports. Newcomers: Number of student IDs that were in the student geocode, and did not exist in student file (including incoming KG). Leavers: Number of student IDs that were in the student geocode, and did not exist in student file (including graduating seniors). 18

19 Mobility Patterns New to district Minus EE/PK/KG 19

20 Mobility Patterns Left district Minus 12 th graders 20

21 Apartment and Single Family Analysis Difference Total Students 38,619 38, Out of District Unmatched Total Students (Geocoded Inside District) 37,974 38, Multi-Family % Students in MF 49.3% 49.3% 0.0% MF Yield Single Family % Students in SF 50.7% 50.7% 0.0% SF Yield Out of district students declined 8% between the and school year The percentage of students in apartments remained steady this year, while the yield declined slightly More than half of Richardson ISD students live in single family housing 21

22 Student Yield by Elementary Zone Elementary SF Lots Elem Stud Mid Stud High Stud Total Stud Elem Yield Mid Yield High Yield Total Yields AIKIN 1, ARAPAHO MAGNET 1, AUDELIA CREEK BIG SPRINGS 2, BOWIE 1, BRENTFIELD 2, , BUKHAIR/DOBIE CANYON CREEK DARTMOUTH 1, DOVER FORESTRIDGE 1, GREENWOOD HILLS 1, HAMILTON PARK MAGNET HARBEN 1, LAKE HIGHLANDS 1, MERRIMAN PARK 1, MOHAWK 1, MOSS HAVEN 1, NORTHLAKE 1, NORTHRICH 1, NORTHWOOD HILLS O HENRY 1, PRAIRIE CREEK PRESTONWOOD 1, RICHARDSON HEIGHTS 2, RICHARDSON TERRACE 1, RICHLAND 1, SKYVIEW 1, SPRING CREEK 1, SPRING VALLEY 1, SPRINGRIDGE 1, STULTS ROAD TWAIN WALLACE 1, WHITE ROCK 1, YALE 2, TOTAL 48,644 11,189 2,928 5,786 19, * Marshall Elem and Forest Lane Academy are not listed due to lack of SF lots 22

23 Annual Student Yield Change by Elementary Elementary CHANGE AIKIN 0.02 ARAPAHO MAGNET 0.06 AUDELIA CREEK 0.09 BIG SPRINGS BOWIE 0.02 BRENTFIELD 0.01 BUKHAIR/DOBIE 0.01 CANYON CREEK 0.03 DARTMOUTH DOVER 0.06 FORESTRIDGE 0.00 GREENWOOD HILLS 0.00 HAMILTON PARK MAGNET HARBEN 0.00 LAKE HIGHLANDS 0.03 MERRIMAN PARK 0.02 MOHAWK 0.03 MOSS HAVEN 0.00 NORTHLAKE 0.06 NORTHRICH 0.00 NORTHWOOD HILLS 0.03 O HENRY 0.00 PRAIRIE CREEK 0.02 PRESTONWOOD 0.01 RICHARDSON HEIGHTS RICHARDSON TERRACE 0.02 RICHLAND 0.01 SKYVIEW SPRING CREEK 0.02 SPRING VALLEY 0.00 SPRINGRIDGE STULTS ROAD TWAIN 0.02 WALLACE 0.07 WHITE ROCK 0.06 YALE TOTAL 0.01 * Marshall Elem and Forest Lane Academy are not listed due to lack of SF lots 23

24 5-Year Change in Home Sales by ZIP Code 24

25 Richardson ISD ZIP Code Home Sales Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 5-Yr ZIP Change

26 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2011/12 1,647 3,262 3,090 2,924 2,927 2,880 2,750 2,711 2,668 2,498 2,844 2,511 2,223 2,109 37, /13 1,706 3,309 3,279 3,102 2,937 2,905 2,870 2,771 2,798 2,572 2,825 2,570 2,291 2,108 38, % 2013/14 1,623 3,258 3,328 3,186 2,976 2,836 2,929 2,765 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,503 2,327 2,154 38, % 2014/15 1,489 3,318 3,244 3,269 3,131 2,909 2,840 2,822 2,842 2,816 2,997 2,494 2,271 2,176 38, % 2015/16 1,478 3,229 3,308 3,198 3,203 3,027 2,894 2,739 2,774 2,800 3,014 2,701 2,290 2,137 38, % 2016/17 1,487 3,304 3,236 3,297 3,160 3,147 3,026 2,792 2,746 2,734 3,022 2,682 2,475 2,153 39, % 2017/18 1,497 3,318 3,309 3,237 3,239 3,131 3,137 2,954 2,827 2,702 2,950 2,685 2,456 2,326 39, % 2018/19 1,507 3,329 3,343 3,287 3,210 3,220 3,114 3,066 3,016 2,803 2,915 2,643 2,467 2,303 40, % 2019/20 1,507 3,353 3,355 3,328 3,262 3,189 3,217 3,035 3,141 2,947 3,048 2,598 2,425 2,318 40, % 2020/21 1,507 3,376 3,363 3,340 3,308 3,167 3,171 3,131 3,112 3,095 3,189 2,716 2,383 2,279 41, % 2021/22 1,507 3,353 3,392 3,343 3,321 3,226 3,139 3,133 3,174 3,085 3,355 2,844 2,491 2,254 41, % 2022/23 1,507 3,346 3,363 3,384 3,309 3,217 3,218 3,092 3,145 3,147 3,367 2,990 2,608 2,346 42, % 2023/24 1,507 3,375 3,364 3,371 3,360 3,219 3,191 3,148 3,155 3,149 3,432 3,000 2,742 2,459 42, % 2024/25 1,507 3,378 3,382 3,350 3,357 3,268 3,194 3,142 3,204 3,162 3,432 3,076 2,761 2,604 42, % 2025/26 1,507 3,399 3,393 3,379 3,328 3,311 3,239 3,151 3,194 3,257 3,461 3,082 2,837 2,620 43, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Richardson ISD will reach more than 40,000 students by year growth = 2,344 students 2020/21 enrollment = 41, year growth = 4,366 students 2025/26 enrollment = 43,158 26

27 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/ / / / / / / / / / /26 DOBIE PRIMARY AIKIN ELEMENTARY ARAPAHO CLASSICAL MAGNET AUDELIA CREEK ELEMENTARY BIG SPRINGS ELEMENTARY BOWIE ELEMENTARY BRENTFIELD ELEMENTARY CANYON CREEK ELEMENTARY BUKHAIR ELEMENTARY DARTMOUTH ELEMENTARY DOVER ELEMENTARY FOREST LANE ACADEMY FORESTRIDGE ELEMENTARY GREENWOOD HILLS ELEMENTARY HAMILTON PARK PACESETTER MAGNET 1, JESS HARBEN ELEMENTARY LAKE HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY MARK TWAIN ELEMENTARY MERRIMAN PARK ELEMENTARY MOHAWK ELEMENTARY MOSS HAVEN ELEMENTARY MST MAGNET NORTHLAKE ELEMENTARY NORTHRICH ELEMENTARY NORTHWOOD HILLS ELEMENTARY O. HENRY ELEMENTARY

28 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/ / / / / / / / / / /26 PRAIRIE CREEK ELEMENTARY PRESTONWOOD ELEMENTARY RICHARDSON HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY RICHARDSON TERRACE ELEMENTARY RICHLAND ELEMENTARY RISD ACADEMY 1, SKYVIEW ELEMENTARY SPRING CREEK ELEMENTARY SPRING VALLEY ELEMENTARY SPRINGRIDGE ELEMENTARY STULTS ROAD ELEMENTARY THURGOOD MARSHALL ELEMENTARY WALLACE ELEMENTARY WHITE ROCK ELEMENTARY ,010 1,012 1,003 1,014 1,007 1,003 1,010 1,011 YALE ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY TOTALS 30,276 23,074 23,447 23,821 24,074 24,244 24,361 24,412 24,434 24,533 24,576 24,705 Elementary Percent Change 0.27% 1.61% 1.60% 1.07% 0.70% 0.48% 0.21% 0.09% 0.40% 0.18% 0.52% Elementary Absolute Change

29 Ten Year Forecast By Secondary Campus Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus Capacity 2015/ / / / / / / / / / /26 APOLLO JUNIOR HIGH 1, FOREST MEADOW JUNIOR HIGH 1, LAKE HIGHLANDS JUNIOR HIGH 1, LIBERTY JUNIOR HIGH PARKHILL JUNIOR HIGH RICHARDSON NORTH JUNIOR HIGH 1, RICHARDSON WEST JUNIOR HIGH 1, WESTWOOD JUNIOR HIGH JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,559 5,465 5,514 5,804 6,073 6,191 6,243 6,276 6,289 6,350 6,436 Junior High Percent Change -1.37% -1.69% 0.90% 5.26% 4.63% 1.95% 0.84% 0.53% 0.20% 0.98% 1.35% Junior High Absolute Change BERKNER HIGH SCHOOL 3,553 2,483 2,449 2,459 2,370 2,342 2,385 2,449 2,533 2,596 2,648 2,661 LAKE HIGHLANDS FRESHMAN CENTER ,019 1,043 1,048 LAKE HIGHLANDS HIGH SCHOOL 2,277 1,805 1,897 1,971 2,000 2,010 2,044 2,112 2,222 2,293 2,357 2,396 PEARCE HIGH SCHOOL 2,730 2,297 2,391 2,449 2,435 2,469 2,482 2,552 2,634 2,703 2,731 2,748 RICHARDSON HIGH SCHOOL 3,079 2,685 2,700 2,677 2,644 2,645 2,702 2,815 2,905 3,001 3,073 3,126 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 10,121 10,311 10,396 10,307 10,368 10,546 10,923 11,290 11,612 11,852 11,979 High School Percent Change 2.21% 1.88% 0.82% -0.85% 0.60% 1.71% 3.57% 3.37% 2.85% 2.06% 1.07% High School Absolute Change McAULIFFE LEARNING CENTER PASS LEARNING CENTER(JJAEP) ALTERNATIVE SCHOOL TOTALS DISTRICT TOTALS 38,792 39,261 39,769 40,224 40,724 41,136 41,616 42,039 42,472 42,817 43,158 District Percent Change 0.45% 1.21% 1.29% 1.14% 1.24% 1.01% 1.17% 1.02% 1.03% 0.81% 0.80% District Absolute Change

30 Summary Richardson unemployment remains below the state and national average. Future growth will be driven by single family regeneration and new multi-family developments. Year-to-date home sales in Richardson are up 3% over the same period in Richardson ISD has seen a slight decline in leavers and newcomers. Largest two classes continue to be Kindergarten and 1 st grades. 5-year growth of 2,344 students for a fall 2020 enrollment of more than 41,100 students. 10-year growth of 4,366 students for a fall 2025 enrollment of more than 43,100 students. 30