Demographic Study Report
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1 Richardson Independent School District Demographic Study Report January 13, 2014 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow
2 Economic Conditions Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller s Office) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. ( ) DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (November 2013) - U.S. 6.6% - Texas 5.8% - DFW MSA 5.6% - Collin County 5.1% - Dallas County 6.1% - City of Dallas 6.1% - City of Richardson 5.0% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal) 2
3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept % 3.5% Austin, TX, 4.0% McAllen, TX, 3.7% Houston, TX, 3.5% Fort Worth Arlington, TX, 3.5% Ocala, FL, 3.4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3.4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3.4% Dallas, TX, 3.4% Laredo, TX, 3.3% Brownsville, TX, 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3
4 DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings Annual Starts & Closings 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 21,013 18,855-3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 4
5 DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 23,422-14% DOM 52-25% Monthly Supply % Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 5
6 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 3Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 3,008 2,534 4,072 9,073 2 Northwest ISD 1,260 1,101 1,750 22,174 3 Denton ISD 1,234 1,101 2,330 14,585 4 Keller ISD ,269 3,218 5 Lewisville ISD ,598 2,549 6 Dallas ISD ,138 7,329 7 Prosper ISD ,494 15,320 8 McKinney ISD ,247 7,225 9 Eagle Mtn. Saginaw ISD ,603 20, Little Elm ISD , Mansfield ISD , Allen ISD , Rockwall ISD ,630 8, Crowley ISD ,897 8, Plano ISD , Forney ISD ,401 11, Wylie ISD , Fort Worth ISD ,069 4, Burleson ISD , Carrollton Farmers Branch ISD Coppell ISD , Richardson ISD Mesquite ISD ,612 Totals 21,104 19,050 46, ,309 6
7 Residential Activity Lake Highlands Town Center Haven Lake Highlands Haven Lake Highlands 1,000+ apartments, condos and townhomes 200 unit apartment under construction 250,000+ sq. ft. of retail space Estimated build out is 2Q15 White Rock Elementary Zone 7
8 Residential Activity GreenVUE Apartments COLLINS BLVD ALMA RD GreenVUE 400 high density apartments Under construction Low student yields expected (50-75 students) Mark Twain Elementary 8
9 Residential Activity Parkside Towns Parkside Towns 135 Townhomes Under construction Expected build out 1Q14 Mohawk Elementary 9
10 Residential Activity Savoy Landing Savoy Landing 56 Patio Homes Platting approved Mohawk Elementary 10
11 Residential Activity The Palisades The Palisades 680 total units proposed 80 townhomes 600 high-end apartments Up for approval with the Richardson City Plan Commission Only 38% of the property is in RISD This includes approximately 240 apartment units Prairie Creek Elementary 11
12 Multi-family Historical Occupancy DFW, South & U.S. Markets 12
13 Multi-family Historical Occupancy Richardson Markets The City of Richardson had the 3 rd highest occupancy rate in the DFW area with 96.1% for 4Q13. Period DFW Dallas Far North Dallas North Dallas Northeast Dallas Richardson 4Q % 91.80% 92.20% 93.20% 90.90% 93.40% 4Q % 89.20% 89.50% 89.20% 83.70% 90.50% 4Q % 91.60% 92.30% 92.50% 84.90% 94.10% 4Q % 93.50% 95.10% 94.50% 87.70% 94.70% 4Q % 93.90% 95.00% 96.20% 89.40% 95.20% 4Q % 94.60% 95.30% 95.70% 91.50% 96.10% 13
14 Multi Family Yield Decline *Using the same 155 complexes from Change Students Average Yield
15 5-Year Total Enrollment Change 2007/ / /08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/ /13 Growth 5 YEAR PCT Growth Rank DISTNAME 1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,285 56% 2 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,866 11% 3 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2, % 4 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,789 16% 5 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,682 25% 6 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,488 7% 7 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,282 7% 8 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,018 9% 9 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1,611 6% 10 FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1,556 22% 11 PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1,505 3% 12 ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1,419 11% 13 LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1,149 46% 14 DALLAS ISD 157, ,915 1,111 1% 15 WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1,091 17% 16 COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1,049 11% 17 GARLAND ISD 57,169 58, % 18 DUNCANVILLE ISD 12,467 13, % 19 PRINCETON ISD 2,674 3, % 20 ROYSE CITY ISD 4,144 4, % 21 MIDLOTHIAN ISD 6,830 7, % 22 SUNNYVALE ISD 671 1, % 23 CRANDALL ISD 2,454 3, % 24 MELISSA ISD 1,137 1, % 25 HIGHLAND PARK ISD 6,324 6, % 26 ANNA ISD 2,008 2, % 27 RED OAK ISD 5,179 5, % 28 SHERMAN ISD 6,501 6, % 29 CEDAR HILL ISD 7,867 8, % 30 CELINA ISD 1,719 2, % 15
16 Race/Ethnicity and Economically Disadvantaged 2009/ /14 Black or African American % Black or African American American Indian or Alaska Native % American Indian or Alaska Native Two or more races % Two or More Races Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islander % Native Hawaiian/ Other Pacific Islander % % % Year (Oct.) Total Hispanic Hispanic Asian Asian White White 2009/10 34,843 8, % 12, % % 2, % 10, % TEA CHANGES IN RACE/ETHNICITY REPORTING 2010/11 36,070 8, % 13, % % 2, % 10, % % % 2011/12 37,044 8, % 14, % % 2, % 10, % % % 2012/13 38,043 8, % 14, % % 2, % 10, % % % 2013/14 38,275 8, % 15, % % 2, % 10, % % % Year (Oct.) Economically Disadvantaged % ED 2009/10 19, % 2010/11 20, % 2011/12 21, % 2012/13 22, % 2013/14 21, % Richardson ISD Race/Ethnicity Chart MORE THAN ONE, 968, 2.5% HAWAIIAN/PACIF IC ISLANDER, 35, 0.1% WHITE, 10705, 28.0% BLACK, 8490, 22.2% ASIAN, 2632, 6.9% HISPANIC/LATINO, 15299, 40.0% AM. INDIAN/ALASKA NATIVE, 146, 0.4% 16
17 Enrollment History Year (Oct.) EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2009/10 1,502 2,881 2,889 2,845 2,702 2,637 2,523 2,405 2,568 2,509 2,689 2,490 2,091 2,112 34, /11 1,612 3,033 2,902 2,949 2,898 2,752 2,673 2,597 2,481 2,589 2,777 2,445 2,247 2,115 36,070 1, % 2011/12 1,647 3,262 3,089 2,925 2,927 2,879 2,750 2,710 2,668 2,499 2,845 2,511 2,223 2,109 37, % 2012/13 1,703 3,309 3,279 3,102 2,936 2,905 2,870 2,771 2,800 2,572 2,827 2,570 2,291 2,108 38, % 2013/14 1,624 3,256 3,326 3,182 2,970 2,837 2,927 2,763 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,509 2,330 2,153 38, % Cohort Analysis *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year cohorts EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 2010/ / / / Rollup Analysis EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth rollup 1,624 3,256 3,256 3,326 3,182 2,970 2,837 2,927 2,763 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,509 2,330 39,378 1,103 prev cohort 1,624 3,204 3,273 3,228 3,047 2,870 2,858 2,818 2,831 2,776 3,003 2,504 2,275 2,190 38, yr avg 1,624 3,336 3,287 3,307 3,133 2,923 2,841 2,912 2,841 2,791 3,036 2,534 2,282 2,195 39,
18 Student Mobility From to , newcomers decreased by 386 students, while leavers increased by 400 students. This accounts for a drop in expected enrollment growth of 768 students Difference Newcomers Leavers Student Gain * Student geocode data is taken from an enrollment snapshot, totals may vary from official enrollment reports. Newcomers: Number of student IDs that were in the student geocode, and did not exist in student file (includes incoming KG). Leavers: Number of student IDs that were in the student geocode, and did not exist in student file (includes graduating seniors). 18
19 Mobility Patterns New to district Minus EE/PK/KG 19
20 Mobility Patterns Left district Minus 12 th graders 20
21 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct.) EE/PRE K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2009/10 1,502 2,881 2,889 2,845 2,702 2,637 2,523 2,405 2,568 2,509 2,689 2,490 2,091 2,112 34, /11 1,612 3,033 2,902 2,949 2,898 2,752 2,673 2,597 2,481 2,589 2,777 2,445 2,247 2,115 36,070 1, % 2011/12 1,647 3,262 3,089 2,925 2,927 2,879 2,750 2,710 2,668 2,499 2,845 2,511 2,223 2,109 37, % 2012/13 1,703 3,309 3,279 3,102 2,936 2,905 2,870 2,771 2,800 2,572 2,827 2,570 2,291 2,108 38, % 2013/14 1,624 3,256 3,326 3,182 2,970 2,837 2,927 2,763 2,839 2,738 2,821 2,509 2,330 2,153 38, % 2014/15 1,624 3,178 3,256 3,217 3,097 2,913 2,837 2,903 2,798 2,789 3,004 2,529 2,284 2,186 38, % 2015/16 1,624 3,158 3,198 3,208 3,186 3,072 2,914 2,846 2,902 2,743 3,072 2,694 2,303 2,150 39, % 2016/17 1,624 3,186 3,196 3,186 3,168 3,165 3,107 2,940 2,858 2,875 3,015 2,739 2,452 2,174 39, % 2017/18 1,624 3,212 3,191 3,164 3,154 3,130 3,175 3,102 2,944 2,798 3,155 2,697 2,490 2,308 40, % 2018/19 1,624 3,275 3,221 3,224 3,176 3,167 3,130 3,148 3,082 2,887 3,056 2,821 2,452 2,345 40, % 2019/20 1,624 3,305 3,287 3,194 3,183 3,141 3,180 3,125 3,130 3,056 3,160 2,729 2,566 2,310 40, % 2020/21 1,624 3,287 3,317 3,255 3,168 3,135 3,139 3,153 3,101 3,087 3,345 2,825 2,482 2,417 41, % 2021/22 1,624 3,297 3,301 3,290 3,210 3,124 3,126 3,144 3,132 3,059 3,371 2,990 2,569 2,338 41, % 2022/23 1,624 3,305 3,312 3,263 3,251 3,157 3,120 3,119 3,123 3,087 3,343 3,014 2,720 2,420 41, % 2023/24 1,624 3,327 3,324 3,280 3,231 3,205 3,150 3,121 3,097 3,089 3,375 2,990 2,742 2,562 42, % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Large class sizes will begin impacting secondary campuses by the year 2015/2016 school year. Enrollment will exceed 40,000 students by Fall 2017 Five year enrollment growth = 2,332 Ten year enrollment growth = 3,842 21
22 Campus Enrollment Projections Past enrollment projections were calculated based upon the campus attending numbers from the fall student data. The projections assumed that all program, choice and transfer students remained at their attending campus through the final grade for the campus. This year s projections use a different starting point taking into consideration the return of the overflow students back to their home campus. All program and choice students will remain in their attending campus through the final grade for the campus. 2013/2014 column in the campus projection table is the October attending number. 22
23 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary School Campus ELEMENTARY CAMPUSES 2013/ / / / / / / / / / /24 DOBIE PRIMARY AIKIN ELEMENTARY ARAPAHO CLASSICAL MAGNET AUDELIA CREEK ELEMENTARY BIG SPRINGS ELEMENTARY BOWIE ELEMENTARY BRENTFIELD ELEMENTARY CANYON CREEK ELEMENTARY BUKHAIR ELEMENTARY DARTMOUTH ELEMENTARY DOVER ELEMENTARY FOREST LANE ELEMENTARY FORESTRIDGE ELEMENTARY GREENWOOD HILLS ELEMENTARY HAMILTON PARK ELEMENTARY JESS HARBEN ELEMENTARY LAKE HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY MARK TWAIN ELEMENTARY THURGOOD MARSHALL ELEMENTARY MERRIMAN PARK ELEMENTARY MOHAWK ELEMENTARY MOSS HAVEN ELEMENTARY MST MAGNET NORTHLAKE ELEMENTARY NORTHRICH ELEMENTARY NORTHWOOD ELEMENTARY O'HENRY ELEMENTARY PRAIRIE CREEK ELEMENTARY PRESTONWOOD ELEMENTARY RICHARDSON HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY
24 Ten Year Forecast By Elementary School Campus ELEMENTARY CAMPUSES 2013/ / / / / / / / / / /24 RICHARDSON TERRACE ELEMENTARY RICHLAND ELEMENTARY RISD ACADEMY , SKYVIEW ELEMENTARY SPRING CREEK ELEMENTARY SPRING VALLEY ELEMENTARY SPRINGRIDGE ELEMENTARY STULTS ROAD ELEMENTARY WALLACE ELEMENTARY WHITE ROCK ELEMENTARY YALE ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY TOTALS 22,881 23,020 23,202 23,568 23,748 23,960 24,035 24,074 24,112 24,147 24,258 Elementary Percent Change 0.03% 0.61% 0.79% 1.58% 0.76% 0.89% 0.31% 0.16% 0.16% 0.15% 0.46% Elementary Absolute Change Five year elementary growth = 1,079 additional students 24
25 Ten Year Forecast By Secondary Campus JUNIOR HIGH CAMPUSES 2013/ / / / / / / / / / /24 APOLLO JUNIOR HIGH FOREST MEADOW JUNIOR HIGH LAKE HIGHLANDS JUNIOR HIGH LIBERTY JUNIOR HIGH PARKHILL JUNIOR HIGH RICHARDSON NORTH JUNIOR HIGH RICHARDSON WEST JUNIOR HIGH WESTWOOD JUNIOR HIGH JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,566 5,576 5,634 5,722 5,731 5,958 6,175 6,177 6,180 6,199 6,175 Junior High Percent Change 4.00% 0.18% 1.05% 1.55% 0.17% 3.96% 3.64% 0.03% 0.05% 0.31% 0.38% Junior High Absolute Change HIGH SCHOOL AND ALTERNATIVE CAMPUSES 2013/ / / / / / / / / / /24 BERKNER HIGH SCHOOL 2,534 2,504 2,466 2,489 2,544 2,538 2,576 2,670 2,712 2,773 2,829 LAKE HIGHLANDS FRESHMAN CENTER LAKE HIGHLANDS HIGH SCHOOL 1,718 1,758 1,750 1,847 1,882 1,962 1,949 1,988 2,042 2,108 2,147 PEARCE HIGH SCHOOL 2,178 2,241 2,285 2,318 2,377 2,353 2,398 2,463 2,515 2,580 2,606 RICHARDSON HIGH SCHOOL 2,572 2,707 2,802 2,859 2,946 2,924 2,923 2,980 3,015 3,061 3,103 HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 9,775 9,965 10,181 10,342 10,612 10,636 10,727 11,031 11,230 11,459 11,631 High School Percent Change 0.26% 1.94% 2.17% 1.58% 2.61% 0.23% 0.86% 2.83% 1.81% 2.04% 1.50% High School Absolute Change McAULIFFE LEARNING CENTER PASS LEARNING CENTER(JJAEP) DISTRICT TOTALS 38,275 38,614 39,070 39,685 40,144 40,607 40,990 41,334 41,575 41,858 42,117 District Percent Change 0.61% 0.89% 1.18% 1.57% 1.16% 1.15% 0.94% 0.84% 0.58% 0.68% 0.62% District Absolute Change
26 Summary Texas economy continues to out perform the nation with strong job growth. This year the district had an increase in the number of Leavers likely due to increasing rent rates and high apartment occupancy rates. Future growth will be driven by single family regeneration. District in position to see 339 additional students fall Largest two classes continue to be Kindergarten and 1 st grades. Richardson ISD could see an additional 2,332 students during the next 5 years. (Total Enrollment 2018/19 = 40,607 students) 26
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