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2 Political Science Research Methods Exploring America at a Crossroads

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4 Political Science Research Methods Exploring America at a Crossroads Cal Clark Auburn University, USA World Scientific NEW JERSEY LONDON SINGAPORE BEIJING SHANGHAI HONG KONG TAIPEI CHENNAI

5 Published by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore USA office: 27 Warren Street, Suite , Hackensack, NJ UK office: 57 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9HE Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Clark, Cal, 1945 Political science research methods : exploring America at a crossroads / by Cal Clark Auburn University, USA. pages cm ISBN (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. United States--Politics and government--research. 2. Political science--research-- Methodology. 3. Social sciences--research--methodology. I. Title. JA88.U6C dc British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Credit for Cover Photo of US Senator Barack Obama at Change We Need Presidential Rally October 30, 2008, at Verizon Wireless Virgina Beach Amphitheater in Virginia Beach, VA Credit: Spirit of America/Shutterstock Photo of Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at a town hall meeting on June 4, 2010 in Mesa, Arizona Credit: Christopher Halloran/Shutterstock Copyright 2014 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. All rights reserved. This book, or parts thereof, may not be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or any information storage and retrieval system now known or to be invented, without written permission from the Publisher. For photocopying of material in this volume, please pay a copying fee through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. In this case permission to photocopy is not required from the publisher. In-house Editor: Monica Lesmana Typeset by Stallion Press enquiries@stallionpress.com Printed in Singapore

6 To the many students in my research methods classes over the years who have evidently derived some laughs and pleasures from them despite all the numbers.

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8 About the Author Cal Clark is an Emeritus Alumni Professor of Political Science and Director of the MPA Program at Auburn University in the United States who received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. He has the authored and edited over 20 books and over 250 journal articles and book chapters. His books include the co-authored Taiwan s Political Economy (2012) and Comparative Development Patterns in Asia (1997); the edited The Changing Dynamics of the Relations among China, Taiwan, and the United States (2011); and the coedited Beyond the Developmental State (1998) and Institutions and Gender Empowerment in the Global Economy (World Scientific, 2008). In 2012, he received the Student Government Association s award for the Outstanding Graduate Faculty member at Auburn University. vii

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10 Preface The principal goal of this text is to provide clear and elementary descriptions of the major statistical techniques used in political and social science research. The book is built on two basic assumptions. First, I believe it is possible to explain social science statistics in a simple and straightforward manner so that students with a minimal background in mathematics can understand even fairly advanced techniques, such as multiple or even logistic regression. Second, I have found in teaching research methods courses that undergraduate and even graduate students have less trouble in understanding specific techniques than in interpreting what statistical results mean substantively. Consequently, the book stresses the interpretation of research findings. In essence, the book argues that political science research is like piecing a jigsaw puzzle together. Pieces of information statistical and nonstatistical must be assembled and interpreted both logically and creatively. The text is organized in a manner which, so far as I am aware, is unique. This is that it uses the various techniques being discussed to analyze the current state of the United States as it seemingly stands at a crossroads in both its political orientations and socioeconomic nature. Thus, to make the statistical interpretation more meaningful and easier to understand, the results throughout the book are integrated by their focus upon two central questions related to the theme of America at a Crossroads: Are Americans conservative or liberal in their political ix

11 x Political Science Research Methods Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from beliefs? How do economic and social outcomes in America compare to those in other developed democracies? I have many debts that I am very happy and grateful to acknowledge. First, Monica Lesmana, my editor at World Scientific, has been extremely supportive and encouraging during the development of this project. Second, the many students in my methods classes who over the years have shared both their satisfactions and frustrations with me deserve a significant part of the credit and none of the blame for whatever the reader finds good, bad, or ugly in the following pages. Third, I would specifically like to thank Ms. Christy Tanner, who took a graduate seminar in research methods from me, served as my Teaching Assistant in an undergraduate methods course, and reviewed this entire text for me. Last but far from least, I want to thank my wife Janet (a Professor of political science, too) for all her support and understanding, both intellectual and personal, during my work on this project.

12 About the Author Preface Foreword for Faculty Contents vii ix xvii Chapter 1. Research as Puzzle Solving America at a Crossroads: Two Jigsaws Plan of the Book Exercises Chapter 2. Introducing Our Data Frequency Distributions: Are Americans Conservative or Liberal? Data Arrays and Graphs: How Does the U.S. Compare to Other Developed Nations? Exercises Part I. Designing Research Projects 41 Chapter 3. The Logic of Inquiry and Research Design Concepts and Indicators in Quantitative Research Reliability and Validity xi

13 xii Political Science Research Methods 3.3 Characteristics of Empirical Theory Constructing Explanatory Theories Deriving Two Simple Theories Exercises Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from Chapter 4. Approaches to the Study of Politics Types of Political Analysis Changing Fashions or Paradigms in Political Studies Alternative Strategies for Showing a Relationship Exercises Chapter 5. The Relationship of Qualitative Approaches to Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Approaches to Political Studies Content Analysis: Attaching Numbers to Qualitative Materials Exercises Part II. The Foundations for Statistical Analysis 119 Chapter 6. Some More Complex Issues in Interpreting Data The Dangers of Distortion Why Simple Percentages Are Not Always So Simple Different Scales or Levels of Measurement Exercises Chapter 7. Summary Statistics for an Entire Distribution: Moving Beyond Data Arrays and Graphs 145

14 Contents xiii 7.1 Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Variability Types of Distributions Exercises Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from Chapter 8. An Introduction to Inferential Statistics Sampling The Sampling Distribution Two Applications of the Sampling Distribution Exercises Part III. Discovering Relationships for Nominal and Ordinal Data 197 Chapter 9. Crosstabulation: Why Do Americans Vote Democratic or Republican? Crosstabulation Tables: The Basics Testing the Socioeconomic Model of Voting Exercises Chapter 10. Multivariate Tables: More Nuanced Explanations for Conservative Attitudes and Behavior Multivariate Tables: The Technique Revealing and Replicating Relationships Removing and Reducing Relationships An Overview of the Effects of Multivariate Tables Exercises

15 xiv Political Science Research Methods Part IV. Discovering Relationships for Interval Data 239 Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from Chapter 11. Regression Analysis: International Patterns and Benchmarks for American Performance Scatterplots and Regression Analysis: The Basics A Closer Look at the Conservative and Liberal Hypotheses Regarding Government Size and National Performance Using Regression Analysis for Benchmarking Assumptions of Regression Analysis Exercises Chapter 12. Multiple Regression and Path Analysis: More Complex Models of the Policy Process The Basics in Multiple Regression Analysis Using Multiple Regression to Test the Conservative and Liberal Hypotheses About the Effects of Government Activism Assumptions of Multiple Regression Path Analysis and Causal Modeling Exercises Chapter 13. Logistic Regression: Developing More Complete Models of Partisanship Crosstabs, Simple Regression, and Logit as Alternatives for Explaining a Dichotomous Variable Logistic Regression: The Basic Results More Complex Logit Results: Creating Models of How Issues Shape Voting Exercises

16 Contents xv Conclusion 329 Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from Chapter 14. The Joy and Challenge of the Jigsaw Puzzles in Political Research How Our Quantitative Research Relates to the Paradigms in Political Studies Expanding the Response to the Research Questions Motivating Quantitative Analysis The Joy and Challenge of the Jigsaw Puzzles in Political Research Exercises Index 341

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18 Foreword for Faculty The organization of this textbook reflects three basic principles. First, a central goal is to give students the ability to understand the statistical analysis used by political scientists. The book seeks to do this by first describing a technique, such as bar graphs or regression analysis, in some detail and then providing several substantive illustrations of how results produced by the technique are analyzed and interpreted. Second, to make the statistical interpretation more meaningful and easier to understand, the results throughout the book are integrated by their focus upon two central questions related to the theme of America at a Crossroads: Are Americans conservative or liberal in their political beliefs? How do economic and social outcomes in America compare to those in other developed democracies? Finally, the book recognizes that courses on Political Science Research Methods are taught in a variety of ways. Thus, it has been explicitly designed to be compatible with two different approaches: 1. Those that emphasize a basic understanding of the research process and how to present the distribution of a single variable and measure the association between two items; and 2. those that cover more advanced techniques, such as multiple regression or logistic regression. xvii

19 xviii Political Science Research Methods Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from DIFFERENT STRATEGIES FOR USING THESE MATERIALS A course on research methods in Political Science can be taught in a variety of ways; and this text has been designed to be compatible with several approaches. The principal goal of the text is to show students how to understand and interpret quantitative research in Political Science, including crosstabulation and regression but not the more advanced multivariate analyses. This presumably forms the core of most research methods classes. Part I in Figure 1 summarizes the chapters that present these materials. Chapters 1 and 2 introduce students to the text s major themes, research questions, and data sets; and Chapters 3 and 4 describe concepts and theories in political science and differing approaches to doing research. Three chapters then provide a foundation for more advanced statistical analysis. Chapter 6 raises some more complex issues in interpreting data; the first part of Chapter 7 discusses measures of central tendency; and Chapter 8 is an introduction to inferential statistics. Finally, Chapter 9 describes crosstabulation; and Chapter 11 covers simple regression. I. Basic Overview of the Research Process and Statistical Analysis Chapter 1, Introduction, ENTIRE Chapter 2, Data, ENTIRE Chapter 3, Concepts and Theories, ENTIRE Chapter 4, Approaches, ENTIRE Chapter 6, Data Complexity, ENTIRE Chapter 7, Summary Statistics, CENTRAL TENDENCY Chapter 8, Inductive Statistics, ENTIRE Chapter 9, Crosstabs, ENTIRE Chapter 11, Regression, ENTIRE II. Advanced Statistics Chapter 10, Multivariate Tables, ENTIRE Chapter 12, Multiple Regression, ENTIRE Chapter 13, Logistic Regression, ENTIRE III. Supplement to Basic Materials Chapter 5, Qualitative Analysis, ENTIRE Chapter 7, Summary Statistics, VARIABILITY & DISTRIBUTIONS Chapter 14, Conclusion, ENTIRE Figure 1: How the text materials fit into different instructional emphases.

20 Foreword for Faculty xix Political Science Research Methods Downloaded from This core can be covered in well less than a semester. Thus, as summarized in Parts II and III of Figure 1, several options are provided for adding other topics about research methods. One option in Part II of the table is to include more sophisticated statistical analysis. Chapter 10 covers multivariate tables; Chapter 12 multiple regression; and Chapter 13 logistic regression. Finally, Part III of Figure 1 includes supplements to the basic or core materials that may or may not be included in the course depending upon which, if any, of the other options are used. These include Chapter 5 on qualitative analysis, the second and third parts of Chapter 7 on measures of variability and different types of distributions, and the concluding Chapter 14. Each of the chapters in the main text includes a set of Exercises at the end. These ask the students to apply the topics covered in the chapter to new situations. They may be asked, for example, to look up data on a web site and interpret what the statistics mean or to apply concepts introduced in the chapter to new materials and situations. Assigning these exercises, hence, should reinforce and promote greater understanding of the text materials by having students use them analytically.