Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River: Strategic Plan 2050

Transcription

1 Shasha Center for Strategic Studies The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River: Strategic Plan 2050 This project is supported by the Netherlands government and carried out by an Israeli and Palestinian teams with the support of AEBR, Lassalle Institute and Basel University

2 Why this Initiative (1)? Because the two-state political solution has to supported by a functional process of cross-national cooperation

3 Why this initiative (2)? A strategic plan for cross-national cooperation will support the two state solution: Provides incentives that pave the road to this solution Provides dividends that make a two-state solution sustainable

4 Why is this initiative (3) The area between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River is too small to be totally divided, and there is a need to cooperate on the following issues: Jerusalem as an open city to all religions Shared historical, cultural and religious sites Shared water resources: streams, water reservoirs, sewage Connecting roads that serve social and economic needs Labor markets and workers mobility Shared economic opportunities, i.e., tourism Shared environmental hazards Health, educational and social services that could benefit both sides

5 Working Framework Vision & objectives Shifting reality: scenarios Barriers & opportunities Strategies Plans & Projects Fund raising Marketing Management

6 Vision: Guiding Principles Freedom The existence of two independent and democratic states, both of which are committed to personal freedom and choice, religious freedom, and tolerance. Justice A morally-just Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement which is essential for the prosperity and viability of both peoples. Cross-border cooperation based upon just division and mutual responsibility Just distribution of benefits associated with cross-border cooperation. Equivalent meanings of peace The educational systems and the national narratives will recognize that that other country has full political control over its territory, as delineated in the peace agreement. Social and economic viability Stable existence of two prosperous, flourishing states, based on economic, social and political dividends generated by their provided cross-border cooperation.

7 Vision: Major Components Jerusalem open city: politically divided but functionally united, interfaith dialogue Economy: increasing competitiveness in global markets through cross-national business cooperation Transportation and mobility: Increasing social welfare, access to labor markets through cross-national cooperation Water management at the cross-municipal level Ecosystem sustainability through cross border cooperation Joint planning at the cross-border, cross-regional and cross-national levels

8 Scenarios by Driving Forces Peace Separated Scenario Isolation Imposed Scenario Socio P o l i t i c a l - E c o n o m i c Connected Scenario Cultural Transformed Scenario Growth Scenario Cooperation Conflict

9 Separated: Closure Scenario

10 Connected: Mayors Scenario (Trust)

11 Connected: Over Bridging Corridors

12 Growth Scenario: Regional Cooperation Air port Sea port Brain port

13 Growth Scenario: The Two Regional/Urban Cores

14 Jerusalem Scenario: Open City Jerusalem 1. West-East: political agreement between Israel and Palestine 2. West-East: institutionalizing CBC 3. Jerusalem: power sharing and cooperation a) Two b) An umbrella municipality 4. An Immediate Jerusalem project: a) Right to the city b) Building interaction (global education, tourism, IT) Israel Reciprocity Palestine

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16 Barriers and Opportunities on the Road to the Vision Factor Geopolitical relations Political leadership: national government Local Economic entrepreneurs Socio-cultural relations External players: Globalization International organizations Barriers Ethno-national struggle Inactive, stubborn Short sighted Rejection and hostility Closed systems, Inactive community Opportunities Willingness to enjoy benefits of lasting peace Open to dialogue Innovative Acceptance and cooperation Open systems, Initiating community

17 From Strategic Planning to Implementation Plans, Projects and Financing

18 From Strategic Planning to Implementation Preparing specific sartorial plans and specific project Raising resources to finance the plans and projects Enlisting sponsors Involvement of multi-governance agents and civil society Importance of training and exchange of best practice and knowledge

19 Preparing Plans Local-municipal issues (water, sewage) Mayors (2 Palestinians, 2 Israelis, 2 Europeans, 2 team members) National-governmental issues: (transportation, environment) Government officials (2 Palestinians, 2 Israelis, 2 Europeans, 2 team members) Economic development: (private-private and private-public partnership) Business people (2 Palestinians, 2 Israelis, 2 Europeans, 2 team members) Science, universities, culture, religion and education: (partnership in research and teaching and interfaith dialogue) Heads of universities, media person, members of civic society (2 Palestinians, 2 Israelis, 2 Europeans, 2 team members) Altogether 8 members in each group and overall 32 members

20 Procedure The workshop will be led by Mr. Dirk Jung from Denkmodell in Berlin The participants will attend together the workshop and develop the strategic plans in their specific fields. Two members from our teams will join each group and operate as coordinators

21 Synthesis of the groups work The sectorial plans of the 4 groups will be analyzed by the partners to this project, and synthesized into an overall strategic plan Specific projects will be selected for implementation, including marketing and financing

22 Broader regional cooperation Examining the plan in a regional context Developing a vision and strategies regarding a peaceful, stable and prosperous eastern Mediterranean Phase 1: Pragmatic focus on economic development, transportation, water management, agriculture, energy, industrial development, environment Phase 2: Socio-cultural focus on strengthening social, cultural, scientific, education Phase 3: Geopolitical focus on new regional institutions and geostrategic cooperation

23 Time-line Sectorial research: mapping out existing patterns and future trends and selecting participants for the 4 group 6 months Workshop and preparation of sectorial plans: Developing visions, scenarios and strategies one year Integrating the 4 sectorial plans into an integrated strategic plan: 6 months Selecting projects for implementation: 6 months Setting the ground for a broader perspective 2 years