COURSE GUIDE. Quantitative and Statistical Methods for. Economics

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1 1 COURSE GUIDE Universidad Católica de Valencia Degree in Economics Second Year Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics 2015/2016

2 2 Course guide Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics COURSE GUIDE TO QUANTITATIVE AND STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ECONOMICS COURSE: Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics 6 ECTS FIELD: Statistics 12 Subject: Quantitative methods 36 Type of learning: Basic training Teacher: Dr. Jordi Paniagua YEAR: second Semester: second Department: Economics, management and marketing jordi.paniagua@ucv.es SUBJECT ORGANIZATION Quantitative methods Nº ECTS: 36 Duration and temporal location within the curriculum: Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics is a logical continuation to the Introduction to Statistics coursed in the previous year. In this course we study the problem of trying to draw valid conclusions, with a margin of error small and known, for a population, from a representative sample. With this module, students achieve the homogenization of knowledge in basic science to further promote the transfer of credits between qualifications. Subjects and Courses Subjects ECTS Courses ECTS Mathematics 6 Mathematics for economics: algebra and calculus Course/ semester 6 1/1 Statistics 12 Introduction to Statistics 6 1/2

3 3 Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics 6 2/2 Econometrics 6 Econometric Methods 6 3/2 Computing 6 Computers for economists 6 2/1 Advanced Econometrics 6 Advanced Econometric Methods for Economics 6 4/2 COURSE GUIDE TO THE SUBJECT: Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics Prerequisites: Descriptive statistics GENERAL GOALS a Knowing the tools of inferential statistics: point estimate, confidence estimation and hypothesis testing, its usefulness, limitations and interpretation. b. Knowing the ANOVA method, its rationale, its implementation, its limitations and its interpretation. c. Generalize linear regression models for dealing with multiple variables, binary variables, nonlinear relationships, interaction,... d. Develop students' critical thinking when it comes to making a decision based on a random sample from a population of interest. e. Accustom the students to use information technology (spreadsheet or statistical software). f. Being able to formulate hypotheses, collect and critically evaluate information for problem solving using the scientific method. Competence CROSS-SECTIONAL COMPETENCES measuring scale Systemic CG1 Oral and written communication X CG2 Capacity for time and resources managing CG3 Problem solving X CG4 Ability to solve problems X CG5 Creativity

4 4 Course guide Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics CG6 CG7 Leadership Ability to take initiative and enterprising spirit CG8 Ability to work autonomously X Instrumental CG9 Use of IT X CG10 Information management X CG11 Communicate and read in a foreign language X Interpersonal CG12 CG13 CG14 CG15 Ability for interpersonal relationships Self-confidence and decision making Working in a team and cooperative working Ethical sense and responsibility. Commitment to values related to equal opportunities between men and women, universal accessibility for the disabled, and in general, to those values specific of a culture of peace and democracy. SPECIFIC COMPETENCES Disciplinary Be able to understand the macroeconomic values that control the CE1 Economics and their interrelationship with business management and public administration. Be able to understand the analysis of microeconomic decisions of the CE2 economic agents and their interactions, as well as their implications in management. Be able to understand the role and intervention instruments of the CE3 public sectors in allocating resources, reallocation of income and economic stability. Be able to know the different contexts for analysing the economic environment, both domestic and international, relating to the economic CE4 situation, manufacturing sectors, markets and companies; and be able to understand their incorporation into a global economy world. Understand the characteristics and functions of the economic CE5 institutions. CE6 Identify the relevant economic information sources and their content. Professional

5 5 CE7 CE8 CE9 CE10 Identify, analyse, diagnose and pose solutions to economic problems relating to streamlining in resource allocating management, both in private and in public situations, contributing rationality to the analysis and description of different aspects of the economic reality. Make reports advising on specific economic situations (international, domestic or local) or on its sectors. Identify the relevant economic information sources and exploit their content in order to intervene in the economic reality. Assess the consequences of different choices and identify the best ones given the objectives CE11 Use the IT and communication when performing one s duties. X x X CE12 CE13 Use deductive reasoning together with models in order to explain economic phenomena. Settle the main Spanish tax system and design fiscal planning models X Attitudinal CE14 Engage oneself in business management and public administration. x CE15 Professional rigor CE16 CE17 Ability to engage oneself as an economist in multidiscipline teams Formally represent the economic decision projects, understanding the importance of the expectations and their management. x CE18 Having a creative attitude when solving problems X LEARNING OUTCOMES R-1 Refer to the problem based information sources, most appropriate and make proper use of the data collected. A systematic work for maximum and best information possible from all available secondary sources (newspapers, magazines, databases, etc..) R-2 Break down a complex problem into several parts and establish complex causal links. Recognize several possible causes of a fact or various consequences of an action or a chain of events. R-3 Given an already formalized problem, be able to apply the techniques learned to solve it and be able to decide whether or not you can get a solution or not, so that, in the second case, can bring solutions. Be able to decide whether the solution obtained is reasonable, according to the context in which the COMPETENCES CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 CG: 1, 3, 5,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 CG: 1, 3, 5,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18

6 6 Course guide Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics problem is formulated. R-4 Accurately recognize populations and underlying random variables in the problems it faces and to define the concept of representative sample. Explain the basic idea of the Central Limit Theorem and its practical implications R-5 Express opinions clearly and precisely and know ask questions of control and monitoring. Given a problem "verbalized" is able to translate it into a formal language and identify economic events based on their numeric substrate and be able to establish basic relationships. R-6 Calculate the probability of complex economic events, obtained by econometric operations and operations in statements recognize these real problems. R-7 Differentiate discrete continuous random variables and calculate mathematical expectations and variances of both types of variables and apply appropriate mathematical theorems. R-8 Solve simple problems involving the distribution of continuous variables. Identify real problems random variables that can be modeled by different distributions and handle with ease distribution tables to solve problems in which variables can be modeled with this distribution. R-9 Expressing the findings of an econometric study in economic terms and to transmit these conclusions to people unfamiliar with the statistical terminology. CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18, 19 CE: 15, 17 CG: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 13, 18 CE: 14, 15, 17 CG: 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 13, 18 CE: 14, 15, 17 CG: 1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 CE: 15, 17, 18 CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 11 CE: 14, 15

7 7 TRAINING ACTIVITIES (Off Campus students) Training Activities for off Campus Students ACTIVITY METHODOLOGY Relationship with Learning Outcomes % ECTS 1 Virtual synchronous conferences Practical synchronous session ONLINE ACADEMIC TUTORIALS Monographic along the course sessions, and aspectoriented topical applications of the subject. Group work sessions using chat moderated by the teacher. Economic and business research, for building knowledge through interaction and student activity cases. Personalized attention in small groups. A period of instruction and / or guidance by a tutor in order to review and discuss the materials and topics presented in lectures, seminars, readings, performance of works, etc. 6,7 2,5% 2,3 2,5% 1,4,5,8,9 2,5% FACE ASSESSMENT Body of evidence, written or oral, used in the summative evaluation of the student. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 2,5% Sub-Total 10% 1 The subject and / or material is organized in CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES AND SELF-CONDUCTED INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP ACTIVITIES, with an estimation in ECTS. An appropriate distribution is as follows: 35-40% for classroom training activities and 65-60% for self-conducted activities. (For a course of 6 ECTS: 2.4 and 3.6 respectively). The learning methodology is described in this guide in generic terms, which is specified in the teaching units that constitute each subject and / or matter

8 8 Course guide Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics STUDENTS PREPARATORY ACTIVITIES (Off Campus) ACTIVITY Methodology Relationship with Learning Outcomes ECTS INDIVIDUAL STUDENT S WORK VIRTUAL TUTORING GROUP WORK DICUSSION FORUMS CONTINUOUS ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES Individual preparation of readings, essays, problem solving, seminars, papers, reports, etc.. for discussion or delivery in electronic format. Individual attention to monitoring and guiding the learning process, conducted by a tutor to review and discuss the materials and topics, seminars, readings, papers, etc.. Preparation of readings, essays, problem solving, seminars, papers, reports, etc.. for discussion or delivery Participation and contributions to discussion forums related to the subject, moderated by the subject teacher Problem solving, reviews, reports to deliver in instalments over the course 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 40% 1,3 3,33% 1,3,5,8,9 6,66% 1,3,5,8,9 6,66% 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 33,33% Sub-Total 90% Total 100%

9 9 ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (Off Campus students) Assessment 2 LEARNING OUTCOMES Percentage Instrument Final Exam 1,3 50 Midterms exams (online) 2,4,6,7 25 Homework 1,3,5,8,9 15 Off-line participation 1,3 5 On-line participation 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 5 Honor s criteria: Students with exceptional performance, if any, will be awarded with the maximum grade, according to the teacher s assessment, with a limitation of one honor per 20 students o a fraction of 20. CONTENTS DESCRIPTION COMPETENCES 1. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 2. Point estimation, confidential estimation and hypothesis testing. 3. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). 4. Linear Regression. CB: 1,2,3,4,5 CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 CG: 0, 1, 3, 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 18 2 Assessment tools and techniques: review-oral, written tests (multiple choice tests, developmental, conceptual maps...), tutorials, projects, case studies, observation notebooks, portfolio, etc.

10 10 Course guide Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics

11 11 BIBLIOGRAPHY Class lectures and materials provided by the professor BASIC BIBLIOGRAPHY: Basic Statistics for Business and Economics Lind, Marchal and Wathen Prentice Hall ADDITIONAL BIBLIOGRAPHY: Econometrics Gujarati and Porter McGraw Hill Introducción a la estadística Germán Martín González UCV Prácticas de estadística básica con SPSS Germán Martín González UCV Estadística para administración Mark L. Berenson, David M. Levine y Timothy C. Krehbiel Prentice Hall Estadística Empresarial con Microsoft Excel. Problemas de Inferencia Estadística Isabel Parra Frutos Thomson Elementos básicos de Estadística Económica y Empresarial A. M. Montiel, F. Rius y F.J. Barón Prentice Hall WORK PLANNING: LESSON NUMBER OF LECTURES 1 Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5 2 Point estimation, confidential estimation and hypothesis testing. 9 3 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). 6

12 12 Course guide Quantitative and Statistical Methods for Economics 4 Linear Regression. 8 Introduction Week 1,2 Point estimation, confidential estimation Week 3,4 Online assestment and test: week 5 Hypothesis testing. Week 5,6,7 Chi-square Week 8,9 ANOVA Week 10,11 Linear Regression Week 12,13

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