Banal Creativity and Unique Creation What is Learning in a Learning Intensive Society? Riel Miller. Future of Learning Glasgow, June 25, 2005

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1 Banal Creativity and Unique Creation What is Learning in a Learning Intensive Society? Riel Miller Future of Learning Glasgow, June 25, 2005

2 The poverty of historicism is a poverty of imagination. The historicist continuously upbraids those who cannot imagine a change in their little worlds; yet it seems the historicist is himself deficient in imagination for he cannot imagine a change in the conditions of change. Karl Popper, The Poverty of Historicism 1944

3 Motivating Questions How can we: reconcile greater freedom with collective choices? embrace greater diversity without inviting fragmentation & chaos? foster greater creativity without increasing burn-out & stress? inspire responsibility? motivate change without resorting to fear? manage risk without hierarchy? combine respect for complexity while still gaining depth of understanding?

4 Strategic questions What might make a future learning society different? What kinds of economic framework will be important in a learning intensive economy and society? What could turn the possible into the probable? And is that what we want?

5 Rigorous Imagining-Strategic Scenarios Conceivable Futures Strategic Scenarios Desirable Futures Possibility Space Futures Possible Futures Probable Futures GBU & Bear Futures

6 Futures Literacy Level 1 futures literacy Temporal awareness, values, expectations Level 2 futures literacy Rigorous imagining Level 3 futures literacy Strategic scenarios

7

8 Castle Island, Worldwide Guide to Rapid Prototyping US Army mobile rapid parts replacement pilot project

9 Technology is not destiny Technology possibility space Simple Solid MP3 printer Ease of use Difficult Prototype printer Limited & homogeneous Range of uses Unlimited & heterogeneous

10 Incremental radicalism transforms everyday life Imagining a Within one or two generations learning Disrupts intensive most institutions Alters society culture & values

11 Average Learning Intensity of Daily Life Average intensity of know-what Average intensity of know-who Average intensity of know-how Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity) Agricultural society Industrial society Learning society

12 Synergistic change: dimensions of a learning intensive society Technological dynamism Tt = f (E, R) E = ease of use R = range of uses Economic dynamism Te = f (U, I) U = degree of unpredictability I = freedom of initiative Social dynamism Ts = f (A, D) A = diversity of social affiliation D = significance/intensity of decision making Governance dynamism Tg = f (Y, L) Y = extent of transparency and access L = degree of experimentation and learning

13 21st Century Transitions: Synergy Conditions and the Policy Challenge Experimentation & reflection Dynamic governance Transparency & access to information Social dynamism Extent of choices Ease of use Heterogeneity & smaller scale of affiliation Range of uses Technological dynamism Task unpredictability & predictability Economic dynamism Autonomy Mass-era Learning society

14 Economic dynamism Economic possibility space Nature of production & consumption Organisational attributes of wealth creation Predominant type of economic activity Beyond mass-production and consumption

15 A creative economy Unpredictable tasks - creativity Artist Future consumer/ producer - cyber creator Empowered teamworker, informed shopper Predictable tasks - repetition Mass-era worker and consumer Imposed Authority Freedom to initiate Fusing of supply & demand

16 Compositional Transformation Share of total wealth creation by source Agriculture Household raft/creative Industrial (goods & services, public & private) Agricultural Society Industrial Society Learning Society

17 Adding value to what? Agriculture Manufacturing Services Mass-customization Unique creation banal creativity Learning as the primary source of value added that is a learning society

18 Social dynamism Social possibility space Attributes of identity: sources structure dynamics Patterns of social status - affiliation Ecology of culture - capacity to be free Towards greater heterogeneity

19 Identity & choice Heterogeneous /small Scale of social affiliation /identity Learning society Homogeneous /large Less choice Mass-era Decisions - what, where, when, with whom, how More choice Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective

20 Dynamic Governance Governance possibility space Capacity to make & implement decisions in all areas of activity Quality of decision making: Extent to which best information is used Transparency of the network Extent of opportunties to experiment Knowing how to learn Towards greater responsibility

21 Capacity to make & implement decisions Extensive & unified Learning society Transparency & access to information Limited & fragmented Mass-era Limited Experimentation & learning Continuous Policy matters

22 Questioning assumptions In a learning intensive society: 1. More graduates does not increase wealth or lead to greater competitive advantage 2. Product market competition is minimal because most products are unique 3. Nations are not firms, they do not compete they reallocate to increase wealth (by learning) 4. The corporate form of organization is marginal 5. Reducing classroom schooling helps to avoid fundamentalism 6. Planning causes failure & fails to reduce risk 7. Adherence to basic common values becomes more stringent 8. Internalization not socialization 9. Experimentalism not administration 10.The wealthiest societies have the highest average age

23 A post-industrial knowledge society has learning at the core of production & consumption. Learning becomes the predominant source of valueadded. New rules, institutions & governance capacities not only make this more intensively networked society functional but also reap the dividends of embracing complexity, spontaneity & experimentation.

24 Alice came to a fork in the road. "Which road do I take?" she asked. "Where do you want to go?" responded the Cheshire cat. "I don't know," Alice answered. "Then," said the cat, "it doesn't matter." Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland Thank you Riel Miller XperidoX Futures Consulting rielm@yahoo.com

25 Hubris of the now Slow vs fast Incremental vs radical Voluntary vs involuntary Preservationism vs dynamism

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