Information Propagation for informing Special Population Subgroups about New Ground Transportation Services at Airports

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1 Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. Informaion Propagaion for informing Special Populaion Subgroups abou New Ground Transporaion Services a Airpors Basil C. Sephanis 1 and Dimiris J. Dimiriou 2 1 ASCE member, Deparmen of Transporaion Planning, School of Civil Engineering, Democrius Universiy of Thrace, 12, Vas. Sofias, 67100, Xanhi, Greece; PH ; FAX: , sefanis.v@gr.selonda.com 2 Corresponding auhor, Deparmen of Civil Works, Secor of Transporaion, Technical College of Ahens, 338, Paission sr, 11141, Ahens, Greece PH ; FAX dimiriou@oene.gr. Absrac Implemening new ransporaion services for servicing only a special populaion subgroup presens a severe problem on ranspor operaion process because one has o separae hem from he common users and provide hem specific ransi services under he qualiy and cos resricions. A significan counerpar of his problem is he definiion of he ime lag required, beween he iniial markeing campaign and he saring ime of he service iself. Informing he poenial users by mass media may lead o misuse of monies wih doubful resuls especially in he case of handicapped people. This populaion group is, on one hand scaered wihin he populaion, bu on he oher hand has special communicaion habis and he use of word of mouh consiues an efficien informaion process. The viabiliy of a projec dealing wih services for hese special populaion subgroups mainly depends upon he number of people aware of a paricular service, and he required ime for he informaion disseminaion wihin he populaion sudied. This paper discusses a modeling approach based on Markov sochasic process o simulae he person-o-person informaion disseminaion process. Applicaion of his model focuses on he elderly and handicapped subpopulaion group and akes ino accoun he communicaion behaviors and habis of hree separae subgroups o esimae he required ime o be informed, prior o he commencemen of he service. Inroducion An essenial elemen in he operaion planning process of new airpor ground ransporaion services is he disseminaion of new informaion o he impaced populaion subgroup. Techniques used are amply described in lieraure dealing wih 97 Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

2 98 IATC 2007 Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. markeing, adverising and promoion of such services. A significan counerpar of his problem is he definiion of he ime lag required beween he iniial markeing campaign and he saring ime of he service iself. Informing he poenial users by mass media may lead o misuse of resources wih doubful resuls, especially in he case of elderly and handicapped people. I has been esablished ha he service adverising cos increases and adverising effeciveness decreases wih he reducion of populaion income. The elderly and handicapped populaion group sudied ypically has lower incomes. While his populaion group is scaered wihin he argeed populaion, i has cerain special characerisics relaed o informaion disseminaion processes ha are based largely on person-o-person conac. Therefore, he use of mass media for ransmiing service-relaed informaion presens a parially inefficien mehod. On he oher hand, a commercial announcemen or markeing he service would be relaively ineffecive, because i is addressed o he elderly and handicapped organizaions ha consiue a small fracion of he oal arge populaion. The viabiliy of a projec dealing wih services o his special populaion group would largely depend upon he number of people becoming aware of he new service before is acual commencemen. I is no necessary for he service operaor o begin operaion afer he enire populaion are informed abou i, bu in fac i may be possible wih his procedure, o allow for he projec o begin as soon as he criical mass (number of people who will render he service viable) of poenial users has been reached. In his manner he news will reach he enire subpopulaion hrough he dynamics of informaion disseminaion and diffusion The objecive of his paper is o esimae he ime lag required, beween he iniial markeing campaign and he saring ime of he service. The formulaion framework ha is presened here is based on a sochasic Markov approach where he sages and he parameers of he person-o-person informaion disseminaion are analyzed and he informed and uninformed proporions are esimaed. These proporions are dependen on he probabiliy of ransmiing, he communicaion habis and he ime i akes for he news o be propagaed. The iniiaed applicaion involves ground ransporaion services from/o airpors ha are direced o he elderly and handicapped communiy. The conen of he paper is organized in hree main secions. Firs, he lieraure dealing wih he promoional sraegy is presened. Second, he modeling framework is described and a numerical applicaion and he resuls are analyzed. Finally, he conclusions reached are saed. Lieraure Review In oday's environmen of increasing pressure for markeing produciviy and brand profiabiliy, he companies are seeking direcion in heir adverising and promoion allocaion decisions in order o gain marke share. Mela e al (1997); Anselmi (2000); and Sehuraman and Neslin(2000), have presened an undersanding of his complex allocaion decision by idenifying facors ha may influence he frequenly opposing sraegies of adverising and promoion, suggesing consumer decision-making oucomes and offering prescripions ha lead o allocaion plan Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

3 IATC Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. opimizaion. Several markeing researchers have empirically and analyically addressed boh he deph and he frequency of promoion decisions by using daa analysis ools or presening survey resuls. In boh sreams of enrepreneurship and markeing lieraure, i has been recognized ha he informaion disseminaion process has significan effec on markeing decision-making as well analyzed by Kuraaa and Liub (2006); Cheng and Sehi (1999); Bronnenberg (1998); Sogomonian and Tang (1993). Public relaions aciviies, such as press releases and chariy sponsorships are low-key communicaion aciviies ha a reailer can underake wihin his or her local communiy. Fama and Yangb (2005) claim ha reailers end o place greaer emphasis on below-he-line promoions (direc markeing and sales promoion) han above-he-line promoions (radiional mass media such as elevision, radio and prin). Usually, he effec of increases or decreases in adverising is measured wih a saisical measure called adverising elasiciy. The complicaed calculaions of adverising elasiciy have been made wih hundreds of brands and in several indusry markes, as presened by Bauman e. al. (2001); Jones (2004); and McClure and Kumcu (2006). On he oher hand, over he pas few years, policy makers have shown an increasing ineres in social inclusion issues and reinegraion proecion policies for people wih disabiliies. However, he lack of homogeneous and specific saisical informaion are difficul o evaluae jus how srong an impac of a relevan proecion policy is having on he improvemen of employmen and qualiy of life of disabled people. In Europe, as Eurosa (2001) and Pascual and Canarerol (2006) have recognized ha disabled people ypically have a relaively low educaional and income level compared wih non-disabled people. However, his can be quesioned if used in general sense. Memory is one of he mos highly researched areas in elderly and handicapped populaion. A significan research abou desinaion adverising ha focused on age and forma effecs on memory are presened by MacKay and Smih (2006) and Smih and MacKay (2001). Today, he lieraure provides an incomplee picure of how he individual s memory sysem funcions when everyday simuli are cogniively processed. This would include messages received via mass media (adverising) or verbal media (aural and/or wrien and/or visual in naure). One of he mos significan proecion policies available o disabled people is o provide hem wih specific ransi services in order o upgrade heir mobiliy. The mos known applicaion for he Handicapped Person Transporaion (HPT) problem arises in he door-o-door ransporaion services, where many airpors in Europe have applied relevan ransi services from/o airpor. These people are ranspored eiher in groups or individually beween specified origins or desinaions, and he HPT is ofen formulaed aking ino accoun wo requess: an oubound reques from home o airpor, and an inbound reques for airpor o a specific desinaion. Sephanis and Dimiriou (2006), Rekieka e al.(2006) and Palmer (2004) have been engaged in research on he HPT or similar problems aking ino accoun ha he operaing expenses for hose mandaed services have increased as demand for his has expanded. Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

4 100 IATC 2007 Modeling approach Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. Noaions According o Kenall (1956); Daley and Kendall (1956); Bailey (1960); Bha and Miller (2002); and Hillier and Lieberman (2005) formulaing a problem as a Markov chain process should be necessary o deermine a finie number of saes and he saionary ransiional probabiliies. Sochasic processes describe he behavior of a sysem or procedure over some period of ime. A sochasic process is defined o be an indexed collecion of random variables {X}, where he index runs hrough he given T. Thus, for = 0, 1, 2,..., k he random variable X akes on he values {X} = {X0, X1, X2, Xk} provides a mahemaical represenaion of how he saus of he behavior in a sysem or procedure evolves over ime. The sochasic process {X} is said o have he Markovian propery (Markov chain) if he condiional probabiliy of any fuure even is defined by any pas evens and he presen sae is independen of he pas even bu depends only upon he presen sae. The handies form for presening he condiional probabiliy p for all he k-sep (he probabiliy ha he sysem will be in he sae j afer exacly k seps e.g. ime unis) is given in following marix form: Table 1. Marix forms for presen he ransiion probabiliies. Sae 0 1 m 0 P = 1 p 00 p 10 p 01 p 0m p 11 p 1m m p p m0 If he ransiional (condiional) probabiliies P{X +1 = j/x = i} for each sep (sraum) and each i,j is P{X +1 = j/x = i} = P{X 1 =j/x 0 = i}, for all =1,2, k implies ha he ransiion probabiliies do no change over ime. The condiional probabiliy p of any fuure even mus be posiive number and since he process mus make a ij ransiion ino some sae, i mus saisfy he properies: pij 0 for all i and j - where k = 0,1,2, and m j= 0 p ij =1 for all i j - where k = 0,1,2 m1 p ij = P{ X = j / X = i } is he firs sep and p mm pij = P{ X = j / X = i } is k-sep of condiional probabiliy ij Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

5 IATC Propagaion Assumpions Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. The person-o-person condiions for he informaion disseminaion process depend on group elemen characerisics. The corresponding frame srucures for all possible conac condiions are: (a) One o-one conrac: a frame uni of exclusive groups elemen corresponds o only one populaion elemen (b) One-o-many: one frame uni corresponds o more han one populaion elemen (c) Many-o-one: several frame unis correspond o one populaion elemen. Here, i is possible ha a populaion elemen could appear muliple imes (d) Simple many-o-many: several frame unis correspond a leas o one populaion elemen or reversely (e) Complex many-o-many: Including all frames ha canno be classified ino one of he above described srucures. I is assumed ha he sudied populaion group size S could be recognized, and i involves he following main subgroups: (a) he populaion o be informed N and (b) he seed n which is he number of persons who will sar he informaion propagaion process. As a resul, here are hree disincive and muually exclusive groups: I. People who never heard he news (uninformed ignoran ) = X, ( X = N for = 0 ) II. People who spreading he news ( spreaders ) = Y, ( Y = n for = 0 ) III. People who heard he news and became inacive ( sifles ) = Z, ( Z = 0 for = 0 ) The oal populaion (N+n) a every insan of he process is: X + Y + Z = N + n = S There is a disinc difference beween a ypical epidemic model (see Bailey (1960) and Kenall (1956) ) and a model of diffusion ha lies in he ransiion of a person from group (I) o group (II). A person from group (II) can mee wo ypes of persons in his person-o-person conacs. I mus be kep in mind ha in his simplified version of he sochasic model, a fundamenal assumpion has been made ha a person becomes a sifler if he encouners anoher person who knew he informaion. Thus, if a person from group (II) mees a person from he same group wo unis are los from group (II). If he mees a person from group (III) hen he sops ransmiing he informaion and hus one uni is los from group (II). According o he above assumpions he raes of ransfer are aken o be proporional o he meeing frequencies of differen groups members. Thus he firs case is proporional o 0,5 Y ( Y - 1) and he second case oy Z. The possible ransiions, + d. are given in Table 2 for he ime ( ) Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

6 102 IATC 2007 Table 2. Transiions for person-o-person conac. Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. INFORMATION TRANSITIONS DISSEMINATION X, Y, Z fi X -1, Y + 1, Z X Y d ( ) ( ) (, Y, Z ) fi ( X, Y - 2, Z + 2) 1 X Y ( Y - 1)d 2 X, Y, Z fi X, Y -1, Z + 1 Y Z d ( ) ( ) Formulaing he Propagaion Assumpions as Markov Chain According o he above assumpions, he sysem of informaion propagaion o a Markov chain could hen be ransformed by defining he saes as follows: Sae 0: when a handicapped from group X mees a handicapped for group Y. Then decreased X group and increased Y (1 uni) Sage 1: when a handicapped from group Y mees a handicapped for group Y. Then decreased Y group (2 unis) and increased Z group (2 unis). Sage 2: when a handicapped from group Y mees a handicapped for group Z. Then decreased Y group (1 uni) and increased Z group (1 uni). The probabiliy p of a specific knowledge-spreader ransmiing he informaion, given ha he mees an ignoran, has been assumed consan and equal o 1 in he preliminary exposiion; now i is aken as ranging from 0 o 1. The probabiliies for all saes are a funcion of he densiy of he handicapped in he populaion, he ype of news ha hey are spreading, heir paricipaion in organizaions and heir communicaional habis. Thus, if wo knowledge-spreaders mee, hen he probabiliy ha one of hem does no ransmi he news is ( 1- p ), boh no ransmiing is ( 1- p) 2, and boh ransmiing o each oher is p ( 1- p). The saes and he ransiion probabiliies are given in able 3. Table 3. Saes and ransiion probabiliies Saes Transiions Probabiliies 0 ( X, Y, Z ) ( X -1, Y + 1, Z ) 1 (, Y, Z ) fi ( X, Y - 2, Z + 2) 2 (, Y, Z ) fi ( X, Y -1, Z + 1) fi p X (1-p) 2 X p(1-p) Where: X 0, Y 0, Z 0 and X + Y + Z = N n + Based on Markov heory, informaion propagaion saes can be represened by a finie number of ransiion probabiliies. As a resul he informaion propagaion has a finie number of possible saes wih a definie ransiion probabiliies p ij, which in sae Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

7 IATC Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. j will move o sae i afer one uni of ime (e.g. 1 week). A sae vecor can give he probabiliy of each sae i. and a ransiion marix can be made of he sae ha reflecs he ransiion probabiliies p ij. The sae vecor would presen he probabiliy of a given sep being seleced a he end of firs ime uni (1 week), a he end of second ime (2 weeks) and so on. Numerical Applicaion The applicaion ha iniiaed he work presened in his paper, involves he esimaion of he ime-lag for a number of people knowing abou he service before is acual operaion. The purpose of his applicaion focuses on wo main issues; firs o presen he seps for applying he mehodology framework in real word problems and second o presen he formulaion approach in order o be an easy o handle process for fuure users. Assuming, ha Ahens Inernaional Airpor has esablished a new ground ransporaion service direced o he elderly and handicapped and referred o provide ransi services from/o airpor. The poenial message ha he markeing deparmen would like o ransmi ino he handicapped communiy includes: The airpor operaor has esablished a new ground ransporaion service. If a handicapped wan o ransmi from/o airpor could call o his phone number in order o fix he ransporaion arrangemens. According he above modeling framework, he firs sep is o creae he ransiion marix. When he informaion propagaion procedure sars ( = 0 ) he oal populaion size N should be known, as well as he size of populaion elemens ha are spreading he news (Y). In a quesionnaire survey in which 100 handicapped people from he major relevan organizaions in Ahens ha paricipaed in his effor were inerviewed and he populaion behavior and habis were obained and recorded. This sample consiues he 10% of oal populaion size (organizaion members) ha had chosen o paricipae in his research. Thus, he firs sae he vecor (U) is presened in able 4 (Y =0 was 10%). Table 4. Firs sae vecor for he handicapped applicaion Sae U = Analyzing he survey resuls, he probabiliy of a specific knowledge-spreader ransmiing he informaion was esimaed (p= 0.4) and a ransiion marix is consruced as follows: Table 5. Transiion marix for handicapped group Sae P = Where 2 i, j p ij = 1 Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

8 104 IATC 2007 Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. The above marix indicaes ha in he ime uni =0 a handicapped person from group Y has a 36% chance o mee a handicapped person for group Z and 24% o mee a handicapped person from group Y. Alernaively, could be depiced graphically he ransiion marix, as below: Figure 1. The sae ransiion diagram Afer one week (he firs sep of he Markov process) he new subgroups proporions are calculaed and he nex sae vecor is developed as follows: Table 6. Second sae vecor for handicapped applicaion Sae U = The above marix gives he proporion of each populaion subgroup afer 1 week. Therefore, afer one week only 49% will know he new informaion and approximaely 40% will be he knowledge-spreaders, who ransmi he news o he ohers. Based on he Markov process assumpions, he proporions of populaion group during 2, 3, 4 and 12 weeks is calculaed as presened in he follow marices. Table 7. Saes vecor for handicapped applicaion Sae U = U = U = U = As a resul, he applicaion of he Markov process indicaes ha in 12 weeks all he rows of he marix have idenical enries, which means ha all proporions of populaion groups are equal, and as depics in Figure 2. In oher words, he 66% of he oal populaion sudied would have been informed abou he new airpor service. Moreover, he Markov process in he 12 h sae gives a limiing ransiion probabiliy (seady-sae probabiliy) ha is independen of he iniial sae Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

9 IATC Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 Probabiliy Sae 0 Sae 1 Sae 2 Weeks Figure 2. Probabiliies for he hree saes ransiions during 12 weeks Conclusions The process of informaion disseminaion, which is discussed in his paper, deals wih he person-o-person conac wihin a special populaion group ha in many cases consiues he opimum promoion sraegy. In his manner, he news of saring a new ground ransporaion service a airpors will reach he enire arge populaion hrough he dynamics of informaion diffusion. Given he complexiy of real-world problems, he informaion diffusion is dependen on he probabiliy of ransmiing news, he communicaion habis of under sudy populaion and he ime i akes for he news o propagae hroughou he communiy. This paper presens a mehodology and framework o esimae he ime required for N numbers of members of he populaion subgroups o be informed abou a new service, before he service sars is operaion. The proposed sochasic formulaion approach is focused on handicapped communiy and hree separae subgroups are disinguished in order for he required ime of service commencemen o be announced and all members of he populaion informed, before he service acually sars is operaion. Key elemens for using his formulaion are: (a) o formulae he propagaion assumpions as Markov chain according o propagaion srucure for undersudy populaion; (b) o acquire he firs sep ransiion probabiliies ha consiue he inpu for he nex saes; and (c) o calculae he ransiion probabiliies over he ime. I has been shown ha he proposed formulaion could provide a manageable and efficien ool for he users o adoping boh low cos markeing sraegies, and effecive promoion policies; aking ino accoun he characerisics of closed populaion sysems. The goals of his research are o use he easy-o-handle Markov formulaion ha adops hree group unis wih differen ransmiing characerisics o provide real-life applicaion of his mehodology and framework for focused special airpor ground ransporaion services. References Anselmi K. (2000). A Brand's Adverising and Promoion Allocaion Sraegy - The Role of he Manufacurer's Relaionship wih Disribuors as Moderaed by Relaive Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

10 106 IATC 2007 Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. Marke Share, Journal of Business Research, Volume 48, Issue 2, pp Bailey, N.T.J. (1960). The mahemaical heory of epidemics, Chaper 6, Griffin, London. Bauman A.E., Bellew B., Owen N. and Via P. (2001). Impac of an Ausralian mass media campaign argeing physical aciviy in 1998, Volume 21, Issue 1, pp Bha, U.N., and Miller G.K. (2002). Elemens of Applied Sochasic Processes, 3rd ed., Wiley, NY. Bronnenberg, B.J. (1998). Adverising frequency decisions in a discree Markov process under a budge consrain, Journal of Markeing Research 35 (3), Cheng, F. and Sehi, S.P. (1999). A periodic review invenory model wih demand influenced by promoion decisions, Managemen Science 45 (11), pp Daley, D.J., and Kendall, D.G. (1956). Sochasic Rumors, J. Insiue of Mahemaic Applicaions, EUROSTAT (2001). European Communiy Household Panel, wave 8. Hillier, F., and Lieberman, G. (2005). Chaper 16: Markov Chain, Operaions Research, Mc Graw-Hill, Inernaional Ediion, Kenall, D.G. (1956). Deerminisic and Sochasic Epidemics in closed Populaions, Proceedings of 3rd Symposium on Mahemaical Saisics and Probabiliy, Berkeley, 4. Kuraaa, H., and Liub, J. J. (2006). Opimal promoion planning-deph and frequency-for a wo-sage supply chain under Markov swiching demand, European Journal of Operaional Research Volume 177, Producion Manufacuring and Logisics, Issue 2, McClure, J., and Kumcu, E. (2006). Promoions and produc pricing: Parsimony versus Veblenesque demand, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organizaion, aricle in Press. MacKay, K. J., and Smih, M. C. (2006). Desinaion adverising age and forma effecs on memory, Annals of Tourism Research, Volume 33, Issue 1, pp 7-24 Mela, C. F., Gupa, S. and Lehmann, D.R. (1997). The Long-Term Impac of Promoion and Adverising on Consumer Brand Choice, Journal of Markeing Research 34, Jones, J. P. (2004). Adverising and Promoion, Encyclopedia of Inernaional Media and Communicaions, pp Palmer, K., Dessouky, M., and Abdelmaguid, T. (2004). Impacs of managemen pracices and advanced echnologies on demand responsive ransi sysems, Transporaion Research Par A: Policy and Pracice, Volume 38, Issue 7, Pascual, M., and Canarerol, D., (2006). Socio-demographic deerminans of disabled people: An empirical approach based on he European Communiy Household Panel, Journal of Socio-Economics Volume 36, Issue 2, Rekieka, B., Delchambrea, A., and Aziz Salehb, H. (2006). Handicapped Person Transporaion: An applicaion of he Grouping Geneic Algorihm, Engineering Applicaions of Arificial Inelligence, Volume 19, Issue 5, Sehuraman, R., and Tellis, G. J. (1991). An Analysis of he Tradeoff Beween Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

11 IATC Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by Basil Sephanis on 07/13/16. Copyrigh ASCE. For personal use only; all righs reserved. Adverising and Price Discouning, Journal of Markeing Research, Smih, M. C., and MacKay, K. J. (2001). The Organizaion of Informaion in Memory for Picures of Touris Desinaions: Are There Age-Relaed Differences?, Journal of Travel Research 39, Sogomonian, A.G. and Tang, C.S., (1993). A modeling framework for coordinaing promoion and producion decisions wihin a firm, Managemen Science 39 (2), Sephanis, B.K, and Dimiriou, D.J. (2006). Informaion propagaion: informing special populaion subgroups abou new ransporaion services, Proceedings of Inernaional Conference on Transporaion Research, Hellenic Insiue of Transporaion Engineers, CD proceedings. Fam, K.-S., and Yang, Z. (2005). Primary influences of environmenal uncerainy on promoions budge allocaion and performance: A cross-counry sudy of reail adverisers, Journal of Business Research, Volume 59, Issue 2, pp Copyrigh ASCE 2007 IATC 2007 Aviaion

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