Demographic Update Spring 2015

Transcription

1 Melissa Independent School District Demographic Update Spring 2015 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions Texas remains a top state in job growth in 2014, with a rate of 4%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average. The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7 consecutive years. (State Comptrollers Office) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (December 2014) - U.S. 5.4% - Texas 4.1% - DFW MSA 4.0% - Collin County 3.7% In 2014, Collin County issued 6,698 single-family housing permits. This is a 3.9% rise from The County also issued 3,734 multi-family permits. (Real Estate Center at Texas A&M) 2

3 Annual Job Growth Nov 2013 to Nov % 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% Houston Dallas Fort Worth San Jose Austin Phoenix San Antonio Los Angeles New York City DFW gained 136,900 net jobs from November 2013 to November 2014 Ranked 2 nd in the U.S. in total job growth 3

4 Local Economic Overview State Farm Begins Relocation State Farm Insurance is currently moving employees into its new hub in Richardson The move will bring up to 8,000 employees to DFW Two additional buildings will be complete by the end of 2015, and a third will open in 2016 State Farm will occupy approximately 2 million square feet in the CityLine development Located near President George Bush Turnpike and North Central Expressway Toyota Breaks Ground Toyota Motor North America broke ground on its new headquarters in Plano New $350 million campus on 100 acres will hold up to 4,000 employees at completion Employees will relocate from several states to DFW This is the first time in the company s history all its employees will be housed together Toyota plans to have 300 employees relocate to DFW in

5 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,145 Texas Enrollment Trends 140,000 Enrollment Change 98,273 78,644 85,773 77,261 73,685 78,078 76,085 64, State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,151,925 Total Growth 76,085 5,400,000 Total Enrollment 5,151,925 5,200,000 5,075,840 5,000,000 4,998,579 4,749,571 4,933,617 4,800,000 4,847,844 4,592,849 4,600,000 4,671,493 4,399,019 4,519,164 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 5

6 Region 10 Enrollment Trends Rank District Frisco ISD Richardson ISD Prosper ISD Mesquite ISD Allen ISD Wylie ISD (Collin) Dallas ISD Irving ISD Grand Prairie ISD Coppell ISD Forney ISD Waxahachie ISD McKinney ISD Rockwall ISD Lovejoy ISD Princeton ISD Lancaster ISD Highland Park ISD (Dallas) Royse City ISD Melissa ISD 2008/09 Enrollment 30,797 34,407 3,125 37,030 17,590 11, ,352 33,131 25,996 9,948 7,438 6,646 23,401 13,497 2,873 2,769 5,995 6,331 4,323 1, /14 Enrollment 46,053 38,283 6,413 39,909 20,382 13, ,713 35,328 27,740 11,364 8,648 7,814 24,565 14,626 3,739 3,623 6,820 7,037 5,015 1,895 5 YEAR Change (08/09 13/14) 15,256 3,876 3,288 2,879 2,792 2,377 2,361 2,197 1,744 1,416 1,210 1,168 1,164 1,

7 Melissa ISD Housing Overview YTD Sales (16 Sales in 2014) 23% Average Price ($228,160 Dec. 2014) Median Price ($219,270 Dec. 2014) 10% 7% Number of Listings (40 Dec. 2014) 3% Days on the Market (68 Days) 5% 19% Existing Home Inventory (2.4 Month s Supply) 9

8 DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 4Q14 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,743 2,669 4,064 7,319 2 Denton ISD 1,830 1,666 2,384 15,088 3 Northwest ISD 1,223 1,229 1,507 22,180 4 Prosper ISD 1,335 1,133 2,138 19,503 5 Keller ISD 1,022 1,000 1,293 3,094 6 Dallas ISD ,956 5,824 7 Lewisville ISD ,248 3,705 8 Eagle Mtn. Saginaw ISD ,661 19,645 9 Allen ISD , Rockwall ISD ,649 7, McKinney ISD ,202 6, Mansfield ISD ,043 5, Forney ISD , Little Elm ISD ,306 5, Crowley ISD ,476 8, Burleson ISD , Plano ISD ,132 1, HEB ISD , Wylie ISD , Midlothian ISD , Anna ISD , Garland ISD , Fort Worth ISD ,097 4, Aledo ISD , Waxahachie ISD , Royse City ISD , Carrollton Farmers Branch ISD Melissa ISD , Weatherford ISD Princeton ISD ,510 Source: Metrostudy 8

9 New Housing Activity Melissa ISD Housing Activity 160 Starts Closings Inventory Starts Closings Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total Total In 2014, Melissa ISD had more than 280 starts, this is an increase of 71% year over year Closings were over 200 for the year, a rise of more than 20 units compared to 2013 Inventory remains in a good position to sustain the current closing rate Source: Metrostudy 9

10 Annual Closing Distribution 2Q14 Top 6 Subdivisions 2Q14 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Rank Subdivision Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings 1 Villages of Melissa North Creek Estates (Melissa) Liberty McKinney Meadows Hunters Creek (Melissa) Trails of Melissa TOTALS Source: Metrostudy 10

11 Vacant Developed Lots 2Q14 Top 6 Subdivisions 2Q14 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Villages of Melissa North Creek Estates (Melissa) Liberty McKinney Meadows Country Ridge Hunters Creek (Melissa) TOTALS 280 2,458 Source: Metrostudy 11

12 Future Lots 2Q14 Top 10 Subdivisions 2Q14 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Villages of Melissa Liberty Estates of Willow Wood, The (McKinney) North Creek Estates (Melissa) South Meadow Crystal Park Winchester Farms Trails of Melissa Hunters Creek (Melissa) Villages of Melissa Townhomes TOTALS 213 4,904 Source: Metrostudy 12

13 Active Subdivisions Liberty and Trails of Melissa Liberty 1,250 total lots 525 occupied 465 students in Sept Phase 3 delivered with 173 lots 26 closings in 2014 Building in 2015 «5 MCKILLOP MELISSA «SRT MELISSA RIDGE MELISSA Trails of Melissa 343 total 230 futures 17 U/C 70 students in Sept Building homes in 2015 «SRT 13

14 Active Subdivisions North Creek and Magnolia Ridge «5 North Creek 950 total lots 550 futures 23 U/C 173 students in Sept Phase 2 and 3 under construction Building 50 homes in 2015 Magnolia Ridge Future single family 173 lots in Phase 1 Groundwork underway MCKILLOP Liberty «SRT 14

15 Active Subdivision Villages of Melissa Villages of Melissa 1,200 total lots 870 futures 58 U/C 189 students in Sept Phase 2 underway with 83 lots Building 75 homes in 2015 «5 75 MCKILLOP MELISSA Liberty MELISSA MELISSA RIDGE 17

16 Future Subdivision Estates of Willow Wood Estates of Willow Wood 640 future lots 305 acres Phase 1= 190 lots Currently undergoing annexation and rezoning with the City of McKinney 75 FM 543 N MCDONALD ST 18

17 Enrollment History Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2010/ , / , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , % 2014/ , % Cohort Analysis *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 3 Year Avg / / / Initial Outlook Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Roll up , Prev Cohort , YR Avg ,

18 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth % Growth Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2010/ , / , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , % 2014/ , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , % 2020/ , % 2021/ , % 2022/ , % 2023/ , % 2024/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Melissa ISD will reach more than 2,300 students next fall 5 year growth = 1,233 students 2019/20 enrollment = 3, year growth = 2,823 students 2024/25 enrollment = 4,933 18

19 Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Campus 2013/ / / / / / / / / / / /25 HARRY MCKILLOP ELEMENTARY ,014 1,078 1,141 1,198 1,257 ELEMENTARY TOTAL ,014 1,078 1,141 1,198 1,257 Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 16.61% 8.18% 5.60% 7.56% 2.47% 6.50% 7.46% 6.62% 6.31% 5.84% 5.00% 4.92% MELISSA RIDGE INTERMEDIATE ,048 1,117 INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL TOTAL ,048 1,117 Intermdiate Absolute Change Intermediate Percent Change 5.61% 14.98% 17.02% 12.57% 17.54% 6.78% 6.48% 1.55% 6.70% 7.49% 7.38% 6.58% MELISSA MIDDLE SCHOOL MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL Middle School Absolute Change Middle School Percent Change 8.00% 10.77% 1.82% 11.94% 16.80% 17.12% 14.81% 13.75% 7.16% 1.11% 6.20% 7.69% MELISSA HIGH SCHOOL ,117 1,289 1,495 1,650 1,746 HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL ,117 1,289 1,495 1,650 1,746 High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change 13.70% 12.81% 11.02% 12.37% 8.70% 9.63% 9.92% 15.87% 15.40% 15.98% 10.37% 5.82% COLLIN COUNTY JJAEP DISTRICT TOTALS 1,895 2,110 2,302 2,550 2,807 3,063 3,343 3,653 3,994 4,323 4,651 4,933 District Absolute Change District Percent Change 11.87% 11.35% 9.10% 10.77% 10.08% 9.12% 9.14% 9.27% 9.33% 8.24% 7.59% 6.06% 19

20 Summary Texas economy continues to be the strongest state economy in the country. DFW will continue to be a leader in job and population growth due to the housing market and its diverse economy. Starts and closes were over 220 units each for Vacant Developed Lot supply is in a good position to sustain the current starting rate. MISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,233 students during the next 5 years. 2019/20 enrollment projection 3,343. MISD is projected to have almost 5,000 students for the 2024/25 school year. 22