Maturing Phase of the Modeling and Simulation Discipline

Transcription

1 Asian Simulation Conference 2005 Sixth International Conference on System Simulation and Scientific Computing Beijing, China, 2005 October Maturing Phase of the Modeling and Simulation Discipline ( ) Tuncer Ören, Professor Emeritus M&SNet - McLeod Modeling and Simulation Network of the SCS University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada oren@site.uottawa.ca M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

2 The smaller a man, the closer his horizons. John McLeod Or emphasizing the positive aspect: The greater a man, the larger his horizons. M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

3 Aims: To elaborate on: The Unity of simulation to show its richness Professional concerns: achievements developments challenges M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

4 On Unity: Plan: 1. M&S Application Categories 2. M&S from the Tool Hierarchy 3. M&S from Different Perspectives On professional concerns: 4. Recent Professional Concerns M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

5 Simulation and Real System: 2 categories of simulation: (with respect to concurrency of operations) Stand-alone simulation (operations of the simulation and the system of interest are independent) Integrated simulation (operations of the simulation and the system of interest are interwoven) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

6 Simulation program runs independently from the system of interest Yes: Stand-alone simulation No: Integrated simulation Training Decision support Understanding Education/learning Entertainment M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

7 Stand-alone Simulation for Training (3 groups of possibilities) Aim: train as you operate Aim: proficiency of use of equipment(s) To enhance decision making and/or communication skills To enhance motor skills To provide real-life-like experience opportunities (in a controlled environment) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

8 Stand-alone Simulation for Training Aim: train as you operate To enhance decision making and/or communication skills Constructive simulation (Gaming simulation) Zero-sum simulations - War simulation, battle simulation at different levels Non-zero-sum simulations - Peace operations simulation such as (peace keeping, peace support, Non-Article V operations) - Conflict management simulation - Coopetition simulation (focused cooperation of otherwise competitive groups) -- Holonic simulation (with Holonic agents) Interoperable war gaming Applications of distributed simulation (HLA, TENA) Aim: proficiency of use of equipment(s) To enhance motor skills Virtual simulation Simulators (with limited environmental interactions) To use single vehicles such as aircrafts, helicopters, tanks, submarines. To use single equipments as in weapon system simulators (e.g., torpedo simulator) Virtual simulators (all software) (some to be perceived, for example, by head-mounted displays (HMDs)) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

9 Stand-alone Simulation for Training Aim: train as you operate To provide real-life-like experience opportunities (in a controlled environment) To get experience in combat situations (Real operator uses real equipment with real and/or virtual weapon) Live simulation To get experience at several levels of integrated situations - Integration of constructive simulation with C4ISR - Integration of several types of weapon on a platform (such as a submarine) - simulation of systems of systems; federations of federations hyper federations Linkages to live simulation - Augmented/enhanced reality simulation -- Virtual UAVs (with auto pilots) in a live simulation -- Linkage of live, virtual, and constructive simulations augmented (enhanced) live simulation Aim: proficiency of use of equipment(s) To enhance motor skills Virtual simulation Simulators Virtual simulators M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

10 Simulation program runs independently from the system of interest Yes: Stand-alone simulation No: Integrated simulation Training Decision support Understanding Education/learning Entertainment M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

11 From a systemic point of view, simulation can be used to find the values of output, input, or state variables of a system; provided that the values of the two other types of variables are known. (W. Karplus, 1976) input variable state variable output variable M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

12 input variable state variable output variable Type of problem: Given Find Analysis input state Output Design input output State Control state output Input M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

13 Stand-alone Simulation for Decision Support For value-free decision Value-free simulation For normative decision Normative simulation Description Descriptive simulation Explanation Explanatory simulation Prediction Predictive simulation - Prediction of behavior/performance Evaluation Evaluative simulation - Evaluation of alternative models, parameters, experimental conditions (scenarios), alternative policies - Feasibility studies - Sensitivity studies - Acquisition (Simulation-based acquisition) Prescription Prescriptive simulation - Planning (Simulation-based planning) - On-line decision support - Engineering design (Sim-based design) - Virtual prototyping (Simulation-based prototyping) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

14 Simulation program runs independently from the system of interest Yes: Stand-alone simulation No: Integrated simulation Training Decision support Understanding Education/learning Entertainment M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

15 Simulation, Education and Training Simulation in Education and Training M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

16 Simulation (program) runs independently from the system of interest (SOI) Yes: Stand-alone simulation for: Training Decision Support Understanding Education/learning Entertainment No: (Operations of simulation and the system of interest are interwoven.) Integrated simulation Simulation enriches realsystem operation. Real-System Enriching Simulation (RSES) Simulation supports realsystem operation. Real-System Support Simulation (RS3) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

17 Simulation and Real System: Integrative simulation To (enrich) augment reality In enriched (augmented or mixed) reality simulation, real and virtual entities (that can be people or equipment) and the environment can exist at the same time. Hence, operations can take place in a richer augmented reality environment. Reality is a special case of simulation! M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

18 Possibilities for Enriched (Augmented) Reality: Real equipment Virtual equipment Real operator Virtual operator - Live simulation (a human operator uses virtual guns) - Automated vehicles (auto pilot, aircraft without pilot; vehicle without driver) Virtual simulation - Simulator - Virtual simulator e.g., an AI aircraft (in dogfight) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

19 Simulation enriches real-system operation. Real-System Enriching Simulation (RSES) The SOI and the simulation program operate simultaneously and provide augmented- (enhanced- or mixed-) reality for: Decision support (on-line diagnosis) Training Realistic virtual reality (VR) environments Simulation supports realsystem operation. Real-System Support Simulation (RS3) The SOI and the simulation program operate alternately and provide predictive displays for: Decision support On-the-job training M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

20 On Unity: Plan: 1. M&S Application Categories 2. M&S from the Tool Hierarchy 3. M&S from Different Perspectives On professional concerns: 4. Recent Professional Concerns M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

21 2. M&S from the Tool Hierarchy: Types Levels Manual tools Physical tools Software tools M&S tools Power tools Cybernetic tools M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

22 Level Physical tools Software tools M&S tools Manual tools stone tools metallic tools hand-coded programs non-automated documentation (including specification and processing of requirements) hand-coded M&S programs (simulation is an art/craft era) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

23 Level Physical tools Software tools M&S tools Manual tools stone tools metallic tools hand-coded programs non-automated documentation hand-coded M&S programs (simulation is an art / craft era) Additional features Power tools (Energy) Ability to perform work simple power tools machine tools integrated machines (transfer machines) Computer-aided programming Computer-support in software life cycle software tools software tool kits software environments integrated computer-aided software engineering tools Computer-aided M&S programming Computer support in M&S (in areas other than model behavior generation) M&S tools (e.g., program generators, symbolic processors of models & other M&S components) M&S tool kits.m&s environments integrated environments for M&S computer-aided design and/or problem solving environments with simulation abilities M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

24 Level Physical tools Software tools M&S tools Manual tools stone tools metallic tools hand-coded programs non-automated documentation hand-coded M&S programs (simulation is an art / craft era) Additional features (Energy) Ability to perform work Computer-aided programming Computer-support in software life cycle Computer-aided M&S programming Computer support in M&S (in areas other than model behavior generation) Power tools Additional features Cybernetic tools simple power tools machine tools integrated machines (transfer machines) Knowledge processing Knowledge processing (kp) machines Machines for kp: Computers Machines with kp abilities (smart machines) software tools software tool kits software environments integrated computeraided software engineering tools AI in software AI in software environments Agents in software Agents in software environments M&S tools (e.g., program generators, symbolic processors of models & other M&S components) M&S tool kits.m&s environments integrated environments for M&S computer-aided design and/or problem solving environments with sim. abilities Advanced knowledge processing ability - Artificial Intelligence (AI), Software agents AI-directed simulation Simulation of intelligent entities AI for simulation - AI- supported simulation - AI-based simulation Agent-directed simulation Simulation for agents: - agent simulation Agents for simulation: - agent- supported simulation - agent- based simulation M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

25 On Unity: Plan: 1. M&S Application Categories 2. M&S from the Tool Hierarchy 3. M&S from Different Perspectives On professional concerns: 4. Recent Professional Concerns M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

26 M&S from Different Perspectives Simulation, derived from Latin simulacre has 3 images: - non-scientific view - military perception - scientific view M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

27 -Non-scientific view of simulation: Simulation means fake, counterfeit, or imitation (used since 14 th century) Examples: simulated leather, simulated pearl M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

28 - Military perception of simulation: Military perception of simulation can be summarized as All but war is simulation. 3 types of military simulation: - Live simulation - Constructive simulation - Virtual simulation M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

29 - Military perception: Live simulation In live simulation, experimentation is performed with fake (imitated - simulated) ammunition and real system acting in real environment. In live simulation, real people and real equipment are both augmented with special sensors to act as target designators. M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

30 - Military perception: Constructive simulation Constructive simulation is war gaming. Forces, equipment, and environment are represented by models. At decision points, decision makers inject their decisions to the simulation system. M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

31 - Military perception: Virtual simulation In virtual simulation, virtual equipment namely, a physical model of the system is used for training purposes. In non-military applications the term simulator is used when a physical model of the system is used. M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

32 - Scientific view of simulation Simulation is goal-directed experimentation with dynamic models. When the experimentation cannot or should not be done on the real system, one can perform it using a dynamic model; and hence use simulation. Simulation is the contemporary sine qua non technique of Francis Bacon s ( ) scientific method which is based on experimentation. (as advocated in his Novum Organum published in 1620.) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

33 Until we attempt to simulate a system, we don t realize how little we know about it Donald Knuth M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

34 Levels of Perception of Simulation: Simulation can be perceived as: - a computational activity - a model-based activity - a knowledge generation activity M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

35 Simulation as a computational activity: The emphasis is on the generation of model behavior. All issues of input data and initialization are applicable. M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

36 Input data Simulation Digital sensory input data Analog sensory input data Sensor Simulation Sensory data Neural net Learned data Simulation Input data Inter-simulation data Another simulation Simulation Types of Simulation Input Data M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

37 Simulation as a model-based activity In addition to generation of model behavior, the following can be considered: computer-aided modelling model-base management parameter-base management symbolic processing of models (each with its own consequences) M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

38 Simulation as a knowledge generation activity: The definition of simulation can be interpreted as follows: Simulation is model-based experiential knowledge generation. This abstraction facilitates the synergy of simulation with other knowledge generation (and processing) techniques: optimization statistical inferencing reasoning, hypothesis processing M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

39 On Unity: Plan: 1. M&S Application Categories 2. M&S from the Tool Hierarchy 3. M&S from Different Perspectives On professional concerns: 4. Recent Professional Concerns M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

40 Technology Aspects of Professionalism in M&S: Knowledge: Knowledge Generation & Dissemination: (Academia, R&D) Certification of Professionalism Science Application Area(s) M&S BoK Code of Professional Ethics Professional and Ethical Conduct Wealth Generation (Products/Services): (Industry) To solve problems: - M&S BoK - Science - Technology - Application Area(s) How to solve them (behavior): - Code of Professional Ethics Activities: - Knowledge Generation and Dissemination: (Academia, R&D) - Wealth Generation (Products/Services): (Industry) Monitoring: - Professional and Ethical Conduct - Certification of Professıonalism M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

41 4. Recent Professional Concerns: Milestone Achievements Ongoing Developments Additional Challenges M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

42 Recent Professional Concerns: Milestone Achievements SimSummit A Code of Professional Ethics Certification Program for individuals Academic Programs M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

43 Recent Professional Concerns: Ongoing Developments Body of Knowledge Curricula Job Categorization M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

44 Recent Professional Concerns: Additional Challenges First, a personal view: No progress is ever possible by keeping the state-of-the-art, no matter how advanced it is. M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

45 Recent Professional Concerns: Additional Challenges Mutual feedbacks of the curricula development and M&SBOK studies Perception of M&S from a broad perspective Exploration of the possibilities of its synergy with related fields Importance of consequences of poorly or inappropriately carried out M&S studies (ethics) Capability maturity model for companies / organizations Success metrics for M&S: based on the value added to the success of the problem M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

46 We have seen On Unity of : 1. M&S Application Categories 2. M&S from the Tool Hierarchy 3. M&S from Different Perspectives On professional concerns: 4. Recent Professional Concerns: achievements, developments, challenges M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören

47 M&S Discipline: Maturing Phase (C) Tuncer Ören