Victoria Levin. Labor Market Challenges in Bulgaria: The Role of Skills and Competencies

Transcription

1 Cognitive and socio-emotional skills of the Bulgarian workforce A snapshot of initial findings from the Bulgarian Longitudinal Inclusive Society Survey (BLISS) Victoria Levin Labor Market Challenges in Bulgaria: The Role of Skills and Competencies April 14, 2015

2 Structure of the presentation Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria? Definitions: What do we mean by skills? Data: How do we measure skills? Emerging findings Conclusions 2

3 Structure of the presentation Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria? Definitions: What do we mean by skills? Data: How do we measure skills? Emerging findings Conclusions 3

4 Percent Czech Republic Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Poland Estonia Lithuania Croatia Romania Latvia Bulgaria Bulgaria s population is aging and shrinking 10 0 Population dynamics,

5 There was a recent shift in labor demand from low-skill to higher-skill intensive sectors ICT Financial services Real estate Business services Arts, entertainment Trade, transport, hotels Public administration Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Cumulative employment growth, Source: WB calculations based on NSI data 5

6 There are concerns about the preparedness of Bulgaria s current workforce Worker education ranked as the fourth-most important concern of Bulgaria s employers in 2008 This concern was especially severe in IT sector and some subsectors of manufacturing 6

7 and future workforce to address the demographic challenge Distribution of students by proficiency level in math, 2012 Bulgaria has the highest rate of functional innumeracy in Europe and the highest level of school social stratification Index of School Social Stratification Source: PISA 2012 data. 7

8 Objectives of the analysis Examine the skills profile of Bulgaria s current workforce Assess the relationship between skills and labor market outcomes Labor force participation Employability Earnings Crisis impacts and coping strategies 8

9 Structure of the presentation Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria? Definitions: What do we mean by skills? Data: How do we measure skills? Emerging findings Conclusions 9

10 The three dimensions of skills Cognitive Socioemotional Technical Involving the use of logical, intuitive and creative thinking Soft skills, social skills, life-skills, personality traits Involving manual dexterity and / or the use of methods, materials, tools and instruments Problem solving ability (as opposed to having knowledge to solve a specific problem) Openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeability, emotional stability Technical skills developed through vocational schooling or acquired on the job Verbal ability, numeracy, problem solving, memory (working and long-term) and mental speed Self-regulation, perseverance, decision making, interpersonal skills Skills related to a specific occupation (e.g. engineer, economist, IT specialist, etc) 10

11 Skill formation benefits from earlier investments and is cumulative 11

12 Socio-emotional skills are important to employers Asia-Pacific Bulgaria Global Americas EMEA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% % of employers citing workplace competencies (soft skills) as reason for difficulty in filling a vacancy Source: Manpower 2012 data. 12

13 Structure of the presentation Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria? Definitions: What do we mean by skills? Data: How do we measure skills? Emerging findings Conclusions 13

14 The Bulgarian Longitudinal Inclusive Society Survey (BLISS) Implemented by the World Bank in partnership with Open Society Institute Sofia Builds on the data collected in three rounds of Bulgaria s Crisis Monitoring Survey (CMS) in Sample: nationally-representative with 2, households in segregated (mostly Roma) neighborhoods Questionnaire: Changes focus from crisis impacts to more structural issues on activation & skills Innovative module on cognitive and socio-emotional skills for a nationally-representative sample of the adult (18-65) population

15 Cognitive skills assessment in BLISS Memory: short-term recall of increasingly longer number sequences, starting with two numbers and ending with 9 numbers (12 items) Semantics: familiarity with synonyms, antonyms, idioms, complex sentence structure (7 multiple-choice items) Reading comprehension: ability to respond to questions about a short non-technical text (5 multiple-choice items) Comprehension of tables and charts: ability to understand written instructions and ability to read a timetable (4 multiple-choice items) Numeracy: ability to perform simple calculations (6 multiple-choice items) What is the promotional price of one bottle in the package? Before the sale, how much did three packages cost? In cents, what is the reduction in package price during the sale?

16 Socio-emotional skills assessment in BLISS (1/2) Work and learning style factor: captures the individual s attitude towards work and his willingness to learn new things. It s a combination of the following skills: Conscientiousness: tendency to be organized, responsible, and hardworking (i.e. When doing a task, are you very careful?). Openness to experience: tendency to be open to new aesthetic, cultural, or intellectual experiences (i.e. Are you very interested in learning new things?). Grit: perseverance and passion for long-term goals (i.e. Do you finish whatever you begin?). Achievement-striving: facet of conscientiousness: need for personal achievement and sense of direction (i.e. Do you do more than what's expected of you?). Decision making: process of generating solutions and considering future consequences (i.e. Do you think about how the things you do will affect you in the future?).

17 Socio-emotional skills assessment in BLISS (2/2) Relational factor: captures how the individual socializes. It s a combination of the following skills: Extraversion: orientation of one s interests and energies toward the outer world of people and things rather than the inner world of subjective experience; characterized by positive affect and sociability. (i.e. Are you talkative?). Agreeableness: tendency to act in a cooperative, unselfish manner (i.e. Are you generous to other people with your time or money?). A facet of openness to experience: Do you enjoy beautiful things, like nature, art, and music? A facet of decision making: Do you ask for help when you don't understand something? Growth vs fixed mindset: belief that one s personality is malleable or fixed (i.e. As much as I hate to admit it, you can t teach an old dog new tricks. You can t really change their deepest attributes).

18 Structure of the presentation Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria? Definitions: What do we mean by skills? Data: How do we measure skills? Emerging findings Conclusions 18

19 Skills profile: Significant but not perfect correlation with educational attainment Standardized score Memory Semantics Reading of texts Reading of other Numeracy Overall cognitive Relational factor Working/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor 1.5 Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Education Primary or below Secondary (base) Bachelor MA/PhD Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

20 Skills profile: Almost no gender differences in skills Standardized score Memory Semantics Reading of texts Reading of other Numeracy Overall cognitive Relational factor Working/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor 0.15 Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Gender * Men (base) Women Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

21 Memory Semantics Reading of texts Reading of other Numeracy Overall cognitive Relational factor Working/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor Standardized score Skills profile: Older adults have lower cognitive but higher socio-emotional skills related to socializing with others Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Age * * (base) Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills Notes: Significant differences from base category, controlling for education: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

22 Memory Semantics Reading of texts Reading of other Numeracy Overall cognitive Relational factor Working/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor Standardized score Skills profile: Almost no significant differences in skills between urban and rural residents Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Settlement Type Metropolitan (base) Urban Rural Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills Notes: Significant differences from base category, controlling for education: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

23 Skills and LM outcomes: The employed have higher cognitive and better working/learning socio-emotional skills Standardized score Memory Semantics Reading of texts Reading of other Numeracy Overall cognitive Relational factor Working/learning style factor Fixed mindset factor 0.3 Average skills in Bulgaria's WAP, by Labor Market Status Employed (base) -0.1 Unemployed -0.2 * Inactive Cognitive skills Socio-emotional skills Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

24 Skills and LM outcomes: Labor force participation Cognitive skills Relational factor Work/learning style factor Growth mindset dummy At least secondary education Aged Aged Married or cohabiting Roma Other ethnicity Urban South At least one child 0-5 At least one child 6-14 At least one member working At least one member not working At least one adult 65+ Probability of being active * Women Men * Cognitive and socio-emotional skills appear not to matter for LFP Education is positively associated with activity, esp. for women Middle-aged women are more likely to be active compared to youth LFP is lower for older adults (50+) Married women are less likely to be active Roma individuals are as likely as non-roma to be in the labor force Small children are associated with lower LFP of women and higher LFP of men Presence of other working adults is positively correlated with women s LFP Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

25 Skills and LM outcomes: Employability Cognitive skills Relational factor Work/learning style factor Growth mindset dummy At least secondary education Aged Aged Married or cohabiting Probability of being Probability employed of being active * * * * Roma * Women Other ethnicity * Men Urban South At least one child 0-5 * At least one child 6-14 At least one member working At least one member not working At least one adult For men, skills seem to matter more than diplomas for finding a job, while for women educational attainment plays a more prominent role Men with higher cognitive skills are more likely to be employed The working/learning style factor (incl. conscientiousness) is positively correlated with the probability of being employed for men Men with a higher relational factor appear less likely to be employed Women with a growth mindset are less likely to be employed Women with secondary or higher education and middle-aged women are more likely to be employed Roma are less likely to be employed Men in the South are more likely to be employed Notes: Significant differences from base category: * 10%, 5%, 1%. Students aged less than 25 years old have been removed from the sample

26 Structure of the presentation Background: Why do skills matter in Bulgaria? Definitions: What do we mean by skills? Data: How do we measure skills? Emerging findings Conclusions 26

27 Some potential policy implications Strengthen cognitive and socio-emotional skills formation in early childhood and general education Expand access to preschool and early years programs Adapt school curriculum and teaching methods for disadvantaged communities Delay vocationalization/early tracking Incorporate promising international examples of socioemotional skills interventions in vocational/dual system training for youth (Youth Guarantee) Increase participation in Active Labor Market Programs * 27

28 Although participation in ALMPs is low, there is a latent demand for this service In 2013, only 7% of Bulgarians aged participated in any training to improve their skills in the previous 12 months Reasons for non-participation varied significantly with the LM status: Employed cited time constraints Unemployed lacked awareness of any suitable training Inactive were not interested in training programs There appears to be potential untapped demand for training One third of Bulgarians are likely or rather likely to use PES vouchers to obtain training to improve their employability More than half (57.7%) of the unemployed would be willing to use this service 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Reason to use the PES voucher Total Other Get skills in another specialization to get additional job Personal interest Get skills in another specialization to get a new job Increase skills in own specialization to get a new job Increase skills in own specialization to advance current job Source: World Bank staff calculations and assessment based on BLISS (2013) 28

29 Thank you For questions and comments please contact Ulrich Hoerning Tel: Victoria Levin Tel: Plamen Danchev Tel: Christian Bodewig cbodewig@worldbank.org, Tel: