February 2012 Edition

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Mervyn Parker
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1 February Edition PurplePoll Why the PurplePoll? In, a dozen states will decide whether President Obama is elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the Purple Electorate likely voters only in these swing states. Updated regularly throughout the election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election. Produced by Purple Strategies, the PurplePoll will offer balanced analysis from our bipartisan team. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] or Bruce Haynes [bruce.haynes@purplestrategies.com], at.

2 February Obama holds leads on both Santorum and Romney, but Santorum does better the first time another GOP candidate outperforms Romney in Purple States. Voters are more satisfied with the direction of the country but are still in a sour mood. Voters believe the economy now belongs to President Obama, and they are divided on economic progress. In our November poll, we found that % believed the country was moving in the right direction, while % felt that it was seriously off on the wrong track. What is the PurplePoll? Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win reelection: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Analysis President Obama currently holds leads against the two top candidates in the GOP field. He leads Mitt Romney by points (% to %) and leads Rick Santorum by 2 points (% to %). President Obama s performance against Romney has been consistent since December, with leads ranging from 2 to points. These results may bring into question Mitt Romney s continued claim of electability. Since September, we have tested President Obama against Rick Perry, Jeb Bush, Newt Gingrich, and now Rick Santorum. Of all of these candidates, Rick Santorum is the only one to outperform Romney (albeit by a small margin) against President Obama in Purple America. Additionally, among independents, Romney trails by 3 points, while Santorum leads President Obama by 2 points (% to %). Swing state voters believe that the Republican campaign is weakening the field, and Romney s personal popularity bears that out. Our latest poll shows some improvement, but with voters having strong reservations about the country s direction. Today, % believe the country is moving in the right direction, with a strong majority (%) feeling the country is on the wrong track. This includes % of independent voters, and strong majorities across our four Purple state regions. Voters are more evenly divided when evaluating the direction of the economy, with 3% saying that it is getting better and 3% saying it is getting worse (2% staying the same ). While the economy is showing signs of improvement, this divided result shows that voters are not yet sold on recovery. No matter the direction of the economy, voters believe that it belongs to President Obama. Overall, % of voters say that he is responsible for its current direction, compared to 3% who believe that Republicans in Congress are responsible. Contraception, religious institutions : Framing the issue will be central to its political impact. These states were won by President Obama en route to his 3 electoral votes. Since, nine of these states swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have been decided by 3 points or less at least once since. The voters in these states have held the presidential election balance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in. Updated regularly throughout the election cycle, the Purple Poll will follow leading political indicators and track new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election. In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: The Wild West (CO, NV, NM), The Heartland (IA, MN, WI), The Rust Belt (NH, OH, PA) and The Southern Swing (NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. A majority (%) of Purple state voters believe that the campaign is weakening the eventual nominee, while just 2% believe that the campaign is strengthening the nominee. Republicans are also concerned about the impact that the campaign is having on their candidates, with % believing that the campaign is weakening the eventual nominee (% strengthening). The campaign s impact on Mitt Romney s personal popularity has been palpable: today, just 2% have a favorable view of him, while % have an unfavorable view. In the first PurplePoll in September of last year, % had a favorable view (3% unfavorable). In other words, over the course of the campaign, Romney s favorables in Purple states have declined by points, while his unfavorables have increased by points a net decline of 23 points. Republicans in Purple America view Rick Santorum much more favorably than they view Mitt Romney. Among voters overall, Rick Santorum is currently better liked than Romney: 3% hold a favorable view, and % have an unfavorable view. Among Republican voters, the results are dramatic: Santorum is much better liked (%/2%) than is Romney (%/%). At the same time, President Obama has net negative job ratings: % approve, and % disapprove. While the President s approval ratings have drifted upward this year, a % approval rating is dangerously low for a president seeking reelection. He has worse ratings among independents (3%/2%) than the Purple electorate as a whole. Additionally, there is an education gap: among those with a college degree or higher, % approve and % disapprove. Among those without a college degree, % approve and % disapprove. Since the recent decisions by the Obama administration on contraceptive coverage, there have been numerous surveys released showing divergent results. The results appear to depend on how the questions frame the issue. In the PurplePoll, we asked whether voters approved or disapproved of the way that President Obama handled the issue of insurance coverage for contraceptives. With that question wording, a plurality (%) disapproved, while 3% approved. A majority of independents (%) disapproved of President Obama s handling of the issue (% approved). Nearly a quarter of Democrats (23%) disapprove of the President s handling of the issue. Interestingly, results among Catholic voters are slightly better than among the Purple electorate as a whole: 3% approve of the job he did, while % disapprove. Among bornagain Christians, by contrast, just 2% approve of his handling of the issue (% disapprove). Other polls on the issue show different results depending on the question frame. A CNN poll (February ) showed that a majority (%) disapproved of President Obama s new policy, while % approved. However, in that same poll, % disagreed with the statement that using artificial means of birth control is wrong. And a New York Times/CBS News poll (Feb ) found that % of voters support a federal requirement that health insurance companies pay for the full cost of birth control for women (2% oppose). These results point to the centrality of framing for this issue. Is it about access to contraceptives, or a referendum on President Obama s handling of the issue? Is it about private choices, or about President Obama and the federal government interfering with religious belief? Polling indicates that the answer will be determined more by the questions voters form when thinking about the issue, rather than the policies themselves. The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, the bipartisan public affairs firm. The poll was fielded 2//2, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size= likely voters, margin of error +/2.. With regional oversamples, the margin of error for each regional cluster is no more than +/.3. About Purple Strategies Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effective strategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debate or stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots, government affairs, digital communications and creative. Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, Alex Castellanos and Steve McMahon merged two wellestablished Republican and Democratic firms National Media and Issue & Image to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists and communication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists Bruce Haynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan. For more: For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

3 February Overall: Right direction: % Wrong track: % : % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Getting better: 3% Getting worse: 3% Staying about the same: 2% : % Obama: % GOP in Congress: 3% Neither: % : % Overall Favorable: 2% Unfavorable: % : % + Obama: % Romney: 3% : % The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico Favorable: 3% Unfavorable: % : % Obama: % Santorum: % : % The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % : % : Obama vs. Santorum Obama: % Santorum: % : % + 3 Strengthening nominee: 2% Weakening nominee: % : 2% Approve: 3% Disapprove: % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

4 February Purple Tracking Direction of the Country Obama Job Approval % % % % % 3% % % % % % Wrong Track Right Direction Not Sure 22% % % % % % 3% % % % 2% % % Disapprove Approve Not Sure % % % % % % Overall % Nov. Dec. Feb. % Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Obama vs. Romney % % % 3% 3% % % 3% % 2% % 3% % 2% % % % % % 3% 3% % % % % Mitt Romney % % % % % % 2% Not Sure % % Unfavorable Favorable % % % Not Sure % % Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. % Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

5 February By Region of 2 The Wild West The Heartland Right direction: % + Getting better: 3% Right direction: % + Getting better: 3% Wrong track: % Getting worse: 3% Wrong track: % Getting worse: % : % 2 Staying about the same: 2% : % Staying about the same: 2% : % : % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % + Obama: % GOP in Congress: 2% Neither: % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % Obama: % GOP in Congress: 2% Neither: % Favorable: 2% Unfavorable: % : % 2 + : % Obama: % Romney: % : % Favorable: 22% Unfavorable: % : % + : % Obama: % Romney: % : % By Region Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Obama: % Santorum: % : % Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Obama: % Santorum: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % : % + Strengthening nominee: 2% Weakening nominee: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: 3% : % + Strengthening nominee: % Weakening nominee: % : 2% : Obama vs. Santorum : Obama vs. Santorum Obama: % Approve: % Obama: % Approve: % Santorum: % Disapprove: % Santorum: % Disapprove: % : % : % : % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

6 February By Region 2 of 2 The Rust Belt The Southern Swing Right direction: 2% + Getting better: % Right direction: 3% + Getting better: 3% Wrong track: % Getting worse: % Wrong track: % Getting worse: 3% : % Staying about the same: 2% : % + Staying about the same: 2% : % : 2% Approve: % Disapprove: % : % + + Obama: % GOP in Congress: 2% Neither: % Approve: % Disapprove: % : % + 3 Obama: % GOP in Congress: % Neither: % Favorable: 2% Unfavorable: % : % 2 + : % Obama: % Romney: % : % Favorable: 2% Unfavorable: % : % + : % Obama: % Romney: % : % By Region Favorable: % Unfavorable: % : % Obama: % Santorum: % : % Favorable: 3% Unfavorable: 3% : 22% Obama: % Santorum: % : % : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % : % +2 Strengthening nominee: 2% Weakening nominee: % : 2% : Obama vs. Romney Obama: % Romney: % : % + 3 Strengthening nominee: 23% Weakening nominee: % : 2% : Obama vs. Santorum : Obama vs. Santorum Obama: % Approve: % Obama: % Approve: 3% Santorum: % Disapprove: % Santorum: % Disapprove: % : % : % : % : % For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

7 February The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia Questionnaire of 2 Complete Questionnaire % % % % % Region Gender Party Education Total Jan Dec Nov Sep Male Female GOP Ind Dem NonColl Coll+ Are things in this country generally going in the right direction or are they pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Do you approve or disapprove of the job is doing as president? Approve Disapprove Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Mitt Romney? Favorable Unfavorable Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of Rick Santorum? If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat and Republican Mitt Romney, for whom would you vote? Favorable Unfavorable Mitt Romney QuestionNaire If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were: Democrat and Republican Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote? Rick Santorum Fielded 2//2, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size= likely voters, margin of error +/2.. Regional margins of error (with oversamples) is +/.3. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

8 February The Wild West: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico The Heartland: Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin The Rust Belt: New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania The Southern Swing: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia Questionnaire 2 of 2 Complete Questionnaire % Complete Questionnaire Total Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse or staying about the same? Who is more responsible for the way the economy is going now: or Republicans in Congress? Getting better Getting worse Staying about the same GOP in Congress Neither % % % % Region Gender Party Education Jan Dec Nov Sep Male Female GOP Ind Dem NonColl Coll Which candidate do you think cares more about people like you: or Mitt Romney? Which candidate do you think cares more about people like you: or Rick Santorum? Do you believe the Republican presidential nomination process is strengthening or weakening the eventual Republican presidential nominee for the general election against? Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Strengthening nominee Weakening nominee QuestionNaire Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Obama handled the issue of insurance coverage for contraceptives? Approve Disapprove Fielded 2//2, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size= likely voters, margin of error +/2.. Regional margins of error (with oversamples) is +/.3. For more information, contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [doug.usher@purplestrategies.com] at.

medicaid and the How will the Medicaid Expansion for Adults Impact Eligibility and Coverage? Key Findings in Brief

medicaid and the How will the Medicaid Expansion for Adults Impact Eligibility and Coverage? Key Findings in Brief on medicaid and the uninsured July 2012 How will the Medicaid Expansion for Impact Eligibility and Coverage? Key Findings in Brief Effective January 2014, the ACA establishes a new minimum Medicaid eligibility