Juvenile Crime Trends and Recidivism Report

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1 QUALITY SYSTEMS AND EVALUATION SERVICES Research and Evaluation Unit Multnomah County Department of Community Justice 501 SE Hawthorne Blvd., Suite 250 Portland, OR Juvenile Crime Trends and Recidivism Report August 2007 Charlene Rhyne, Ph.D. Manager, Quality Systems and Evaluation Services Kim Pascual Research & Evaluation Analyst 2

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CRIME TRENDS Nationally, the overall juvenile crime rate continued to decline although this year the decline was slight (0.42%). For the first year since 1998, Multnomah County evidenced an increase in the overall crime rate. The increase was a modest 2.79%. In Multnomah County: Person offenses increased 7.41%; in particular, robbery offenses increased 59.38%. Homicide rates decreased 70.00% Property offenses remained relatively stable with an increase of 0.10%; in particular, fraud/forgery increased 13.95% while motor vehicle theft decreased 16.67%. Although the numbers are small, drug and weapons offenses decreased by 22.67% and 6.96% respectively. The criminal referral rate per 1,000 Multnomah County youth has increased slightly from last year s rate. Juvenile offenders as a percent of the county juvenile population were 83.3 in 2005 as compared to 81.8 in RECIDIVISM Recidivism has continued to decline with the 2005 rate of 35.0% being the lowest since saw a slight increase in the number of unduplicated offenders as well as number of youth recidivating. Despite this increase, the percent of youth recidivating continued the downward trend. Approximately 2 out of every 3 juveniles with a criminal referral in 2005 did not commit a new offense within 12 months of their initial referral. Recidivists are more likely to be White males age 15. African- American youth (39.2%) continue to be disproportionately represented in this recidivist population. 75% of criminal activity was committed by 17% of the 2004 cohort. Chronic re-offenders, defined as those youth with 3 or more criminal referrals within 12 months of initial referral, comprise 9% of the cohort under analysis. These youth committed over half 2

3 (55%) of all new criminal re-referrals. The average chronic reoffender is a 15 year old African-American male. Over half of the chronic re-offenders (52.0 %) are African-American. White males are gaining a presence in the current group of violent recidivists with a representation of 4.1 percentage points more than African-Americans. African-American males are disproportionately represented as recidivists with Ballot Measure 11 crimes. CHANGES IN RECIDIVISM FROM 2004 In general, the recidivist population is getting younger. The percentage of African-American non-violent recidivists increased 3.9 percentage points. White violent recidivists increased 5 percentage points. African- American violent recidivists decreased 3.4 percentage points. In terms of BM11 crimes, Hispanic recidivism decreased 12.2 percentage points, White recidivism increased 7.4 percentage points and African-American recidivism increased 5.3 percentage points. 3

4 REPORT PURPOSE AND HISTORY This report presents trends over time of key performance indicators for Multnomah County s juvenile justice system, utilizing a combination of tables, graphs and brief narratives to highlight the findings. This information is used by program administrators, managers and line staff as part of the Department s continuous quality improvement process to identify areas in which the Department is performing well, as well as to identify areas in which the Department may need to focus further analytical attention. This year the report continues the practice of the joining of two reports that have been produced separately in the past: Juvenile Crime Trends Report and the Juvenile Recidivism Report. Collapsing these two reports into one report reflects the relationship between the two areas under analysis and the reality that crime trends data informs our understanding of juvenile recidivism data and vice-versa. As in the past, this report will be updated and distributed annually and is available on the Multnomah County DCJ website at: The section on crime trends describes national and County crime trends and explores in greater detail the County crime trends in terms of person, property, drug and weapons offenses. The population of focus for this section is juveniles age who had a criminal referral in Multnomah County in The section on recidivism explores the demographic profiles of juveniles who re-offend, as well as those juveniles who chronically reoffend. Further, patterns and rates of re-offending are explored. The population of focus for this analysis is juveniles who had a referral to the Department of Community Justice for a criminal offense in Multnomah County sometime in 2005 and subsequently were referred for another criminal offense during the year following the initial referral. This definition of recidivism has been adopted as the standard by the State of Oregon. It is important to note that the crime trends data and the recidivism data represent two different periods of time and as such, represent two different populations of youth. REPORT METHODOLOGY Information on Multnomah County juvenile offenders was collected, entered and maintained in the Juvenile Justice System (JJIS). JJIS is a state-wide electronic case management system used by all counties in the state of Oregon and maintained by the Oregon Youth Authority. Data were extracted from JJIS to support the crime trend and recidivism analyses. Population 4

5 data was downloaded from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention s website at LOCAL AND NATIONAL CRIME RATE CHANGES OVER TIME NATIONAL: MULTNOMAH COUNTIES: Multnomah County # of Criminal Referrals National Statistics Estimated # of Arrests (Age 10-17) Multnomah Percent Rate Change National Percent Rate Change Person Offenses Homicide % 18.80% Sex Offenses ,465 11, % -4.59% Robbery ,190 21, % 17.88% Assault ,703 44, % 4.43% total ,140 78, % 6.36% Property Offenses Burglary ,523 56, % -1.24% Criminal mischief ,294 75, % 3.92% Fraud/Forgery ,699 8, % 2.17% Larceny/Theft 1,163 1, , , % -6.08% Motor vehicle theft ,932 27, % -1.24% Arson ,198 5, % 6.21% total 1,919 1, , , % -2.93% Drug Offenses , , % 1.93% Weapons Offenses ,657 32, % 14.22% Other Offenses 983 1, , , % -1.29% TOTALS 4,047 4, , , % -0.42% Nationally, from 2004 to 2005, the overall crime rate decreased less than.5% and in Multnomah County the rate increased almost 3%. Interesting differences emerged in crime rate changes when comparing national and county rates. o Noteworthy decreases in homicide (70%), arson (17%) and drug offenses (23%) were seen in Multnomah County. National data saw increases in these crimes of 19%, 6% and 2%, respectively. o Both National and County rates decreased for sexual offending. 5

6 o Multnomah County experienced a 59% increase in robbery as compared to National rates of 18% and a 14% increase in fraud/forgery as compared the national rate of 2%. o Weapons offense rate dropped 7% in Multnomah County as compared to a 14% increase nationally. CRIME TRENDS TYPES OF OFFENSES COMMITTED BY JUVENILES: Number of Referrals Property Person Drug Weapon In 2006 there were only 3 more property offenses than in In general, property crime trend continues to trend downward. The decline in person offenses ended with a 7% increase in 2006 as compared to The increase in drug offenses ended with a rate decrease of 23% in The rate of weapon offenses slightly decreased in

7 CRIME TRENDS PROPERTY OFFENSES COMMITTED BY JUVENILES OVER TIME: ,400 1,200 1,000 Number of Referrals Burglary Criminal mischief Fraud/Forgery Larceny/Theft 1,107 1,146 1,264 1,145 1,163 1,189 Motor vehicle theft Arson With regards to property offenses committed by juveniles: o Criminal mischief, motor vehicle theft and arson decreased slightly from 2005 to o Burglary, fraud/forgery and larceny/theft increased slightly from 2005to o In general, property crime trends in 2006 remained similar to property crime trends in

8 CRIME TRENDS PERSON OFFENSES COMMITTED BY JUVENILES OVER TIME: Number of Referrals Homicide Sex Offenses Robbery Assault In terms of person offenses committed by juveniles: o Homicide and sex offenses continue to decrease with 2006 rates the lowest in the years under analysis. o Except for 2005, rates of robbery have trended upward since rates for robbery reflect a 59% increase over o Assault rates increased 6% in 2006 as compared to

9 CRIME TRENDS CRIMINAL REFERRAL RATE PER 1,000 MULTNOMAH COUNTY YOUTH: YOUTH YEARS OLD Rate per 1,000 Mult.Co Youth The above graph takes into account the changing population of juveniles in Multnomah County in comparison to the number of referrals per year. The rate is derived by dividing the number of youth in the County into the number of referrals for the same year multiplied by 1,000. Since 2002, the referral rate has continued to remain between 81 to 84 referrals per 1000 youth. 9

10 CRIME TRENDS MULTNOMAH COUNTY JUVENILE POPULATION COMPARED TO JUVENILE OFFENDERS: Calendar Year Juvenile Population (ages 12-17) 47,222 47,816 48,413 48,744 48,562 Number of Criminal Referrals (Felony & Misdemeanor) 4,033 3,849 4,065 3,989 4,047 Number of Unduplicated Juvenile Offenders 2,953 2,843 2,811 2,727 2,749 Juvenile Offenders as Percent of Juvenile Population 6.3% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% Since 2001 the juvenile population in Multnomah County has increased by almost 1500 youth. Juvenile criminal referrals were highest in 2003 (4,065) and lowest in 2002 (3,849). The referral rate increased 1% from 2004 to The number of unduplicated juvenile offenders has steadily decreased since 2000 with the exception of a.1% increase from 2004 to Juvenile offenders as percent of overall juvenile population continue to be stable at approximately 6%. 49,000 48,750 48,500 48,413 48,744 48, % 90.0% 80.0% 48, % 48,000 47,750 47,500 47,250 47,222 47, % 50.0% 40.0% 47, % 46,750 46, % 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% 20.0% 10.0% 46, % Juvenile Population (ages 12-17) Juvenile Offenders as Percent of Juvenile Population 10

11 MULTNOMAH COUNTY YOUTH RECIDIVISM % % # undup offenders # recidivating % recidivating % 38.0% 37.0% % 35.5% 36.0% % % % % Recidivism has continued to decline since The 2005 rate of 35.0% is the lowest since saw a slight increase in the number of unduplicated youth as well as number of youth recidivating. Despite this increase, the percent of recidivating youth of the total juvenile population in Multnomah County continued the downward trend. In 2005, approximately 1 out of every 3 juvenile offenders returned to juvenile justice within 12 months of their initial referral. 11

12 PERCENT OF YOUTH WHO RE-OFFEND WITHIN 12 MONTHS: MULTNOMAH COUNTY AND STATE OF OREGON: % 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% State 34.8% 34.1% 32.2% 31.3% 31.5% Multco 37.9% 38.5% 36.2% 35.5% 35.0% Since 2000 the recidivism rate has continued to decline at both the State and County level; since 2000 the State reduced recidivism by 3.3 percentage points and Multnomah County reduced recidivism by 2.9 percentage points. The State decline in recidivism has been fairly consistent; despite a slight increase in 2001, Multnomah County s has steadily trended downward since

13 JUVENILE CRIMINAL RECIDIVISM RATES PER 1,000: MULTNOMAH COUNTY AND STATE OF OREGON: State Multco The above graph controls for population changes when deriving a recidivism rate. There has been a steady downward trend in the rate of recidivating youth per 1,000 youth in Multnomah County since For both the State and the County, the number of recidivating youth per 1,000 declined from In 2005, State rates continued to decline while the Multnomah County rate increased by.2 recidivating youth per 1,000 youth. Over the course of six years, the State rate has declined by 7.0 recidivating youth per 1,000 youth and the County rate has declined by 5.9 youth per 1,000 youth coming back into the juvenile justice system. 13

14 DEMOGRAPHICS OF RECIDIVISTS, NON-RECIDIVISTS AND CHRONIC RE-OFFENDERS: 2005 Demographic Number and Percent Overall Number of Recidivists % of Recidivists within Each Category Number of Non- Recidivists % of Non- Recidivists within Each Category Number of Chronic Reoffenders Percent of Chronic Reoffenders within Each Category Gender Male 1868 (67.8%) % % % Female 860 (32.2%) % % % Missing 27 (1%) 6 0.6% 1 0.4% TOTAL 2755 (100%) % % % Age 11 yrs or less 7 (0.3%) 2 0.2% 5 0.3% 0 0.0% 12 yrs 166 (6.0%) % % % 13 yrs 275 (10.0%) % % % 14 yrs 475 (17.2%) % % % 15 yrs 580 (21.1%) % % % 16 yrs 641 (3.3%) % % % 17 yrs or more 586 (21.8%) % % % missing 4 (0.1%) 4 0.2% TOTAL 2755 (100%) % % % Race Asian 99 (3.6%) % % % African-American 804 (29.2%) % % % Hispanic 297 (10.8%) % % % Native American 45 (1.6%) % % 4 1.6% White 1417 (51.4%) % % % Other 66 (2.4%) % % 1 0.4% Missing 27 (1.0%) 1 0.4% TOTAL 2755 (100%) % % % The most likely youth to be a part of the: o 2005 cohort of juvenile offenders is a 17+ year old White male. o 2005 cohort of juvenile recidivists is a 15 year old White male. o 2005 cohort of juvenile non-recidivists is a 17+ year old White male. o 2005 cohort of juvenile chronic re-offenders is a 15 year old African-American male. 14

15 Recidivists are more likely to be between 15 and 16 years of age as compared to non-recidivists who are more likely to be between 16 and 17+ years of age. Almost 60% of the chronic re-offender cohort is between 14 and 16 years of age. Of the recidivating group, approximately one in four females and three in four males re-offend within 12 months of their initial criminal referral. In the chronic re-offending population, one out of every five girls and four out of every five boys re-offend. African-American youth comprise a larger proportion (52.0%) of the chronic re-offending cohort than they do of the overall 2005 recidivist cohort (29.2%). RECIDIVISTS VS NON-RECIDIVISTS: RACE, AGE AND GENDER 2005 COHORT Other White Nat Amer Hispanic Af-Amer Asian >=17 yrs 16 yrs 15 yrs 14 yrs 13 yrs 12 yrs <=11yrs female male % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% recidivists non-recidivists 15

16 REOFFENDING PATTERNS OF RECIDIVISTS: reoffenses 65% Re-offfending 35% 1 reoffense 18% 2 reoffenses 8% 3 reoffenses 4% 4 reoffenses 3% 5 reoffenses 1% 6 reoffenses 1% 7+ reoffenses 1% (505) of the 2005 juvenile cohort has only one new criminal referral within 12 months. 9% (250) of the 2005 offenders could be considered serious chronic offenders which are defined by the State of Oregon as any youth who had three or more criminal referrals within 12 months of their initial referral. LEVEL OF CRIMINAL RE-OFFENDING BY JUVENILES: 2005 Number of Criminal Re-offenses Number of Unduplicated Offenders Percent of Offenders Number of Criminal Re-offenses Committed within 12 Months Percent of Criminal Re-offenses Committed within 12 Months % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Total % 2, % 55% of the new criminal re-referrals were committed by 9.0% of the 2005 cohort. This group represents the chronic re-offender population. 75% of new criminal re-referrals were committed by 17% of the 2005 cohort. These percentages for the 2005 cohort mirror the percentages for the 2004 cohort. 16

17 COMPARISON OF ALL MULTNOMAH COUNTY JUVENILES AGE TO 2005 JUVENILE OFFENDERS VIOLENT OFFENDERS, 340, 0.7% NON-VIOLENT OFFENDERS, 1642, 3.4% MEASURE 11 OFFENDERS, 76, 0.2% JUVENILES NOT INVOLVED IN JUVENILE JUSTICE SYSTEM, 46504, 95.8% Of the 2005 Multnomah County youth population: o The majority (96%) of youth were not involved in the juvenile justice system in o Juvenile offenders comprise 4% of the total youth population. o The majority of youth offenders are non-violent and comprise 3.4% of total youth population. o Violent offenders and BM11 offenders comprise less than 1% of total youth population. (I will also include some of these points in executive summary and conclusion sections.) 17

18 RECIDIVATING OFFENSES OF 2005 YOUTH (N=2,058) Violent offenses include all violent offenses except for BM11 offenses. Non-violent offenses include those offenses that remain after removing BM11 and violent offenses. Violent crimes, 340, 17% BM 11 crimes, 76, 4% Non-violent crimes, 1,642, 79% 79% of the recidivating offenses were non-violent crimes. Violent crimes represent 17% of new criminal re-referrals. 1 Ballot Measure 11 crimes represent 4% of new criminal re-referrals. 2 1 Violent crime include the following 30 allegations: Arson-2, Assault-3, Assault-4 Fel, Assault-4 Mis, Assault Pub Safety Ofcr, Attempt Arson-2, Attempt Assault-1, Attempt Assault-2, Attempt Assault-3, Attempt Assault-4 Misdemeanor A, Attempt Assault Pub Safety Ofcr, Attempt Rape-1, Attempt Robbery-1, Attempt Robbery-2, Attempt Sexual Abuse 1, Attempt Sexual Penetration in the First, Attempt Sodomy-1, Carry/Use Dangerous Weapon, Conspiracy Assault-3, Felon Possess Firearm, Rape-3, Riot, Robbery-3, Sexual Abuse 2, Sexual Abuse 3, Sodomy-3, Strangulation, Unlaw use Weapon Agst Another, Unlawful Mfg Destruct Devic, Unlawful Possess Destruct Dev. 2 Ballot Measure 11 include the following the following allegations: Aggravated Murder, Arson-1, Assault-1, Assault-2, Attempt Aggravated Murder, Attempt Murder, Attempted Murder, Compel Prostitution, Conspiracy Murder, Criminal Homicide, Kidnapping-1, Kidnapping-2, Manslaughter-1, Manslaughter-2, Murder, Murder by Abuse, Murder in the course of Crime, Murder/Intentional, Rape-1, Rape-2, Robbery-1, Robbery-2, Sex. Pen W/Foreign Obj-I, Sex. Pen W/Foreign Obj-II, Sexual Abuse 1, Sexual Penetration in the First Degree, Attempt Murder, Attempted Murder, Compel Prostitution, Conspiracy Murder, Criminal Homicide, Kidnapping-1, Kidnapping-2, Manslaughter-1, Manslaughter-2, Murder, Murder by Abuse, Murder in the course of Crime, Murder/Intentional, Rape-1, Rape-2, Robbery-1, Robbery-2, Sex. Pen W/Foreign Obj-I, Sex. Pen W/Foreign Obj-II, Sexual Abuse 1, Sexual Penetration in the First Degree, Sexual Penetration in the Second Degree, Sodomy-1, Sodomy-2, Solicit Murder, Unlawful Sexual Penetration First Degree, Use Child Display Sex Conduct. 18

19 DEMOGRAPHICS OF 2005 RECIDIVISTS BY CRIME SEVERITY* (N=952) Demographic Youth with Non-violent Crimes (N=648) Youth with Violent Crimes (N=246) Youth with BM 11 Crimes (N=71) Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Gender Male % % % Female % % % Missing 5 0.8% 1 0.4% Age 11 yrs 1 0.2% 1 0.4% 12 yrs % % % 13 yrs % % % 14 yrs % % % 15 yrs % % % 16 yrs % % % 17 yrs or more % % 3 4.2% Race Asian % 3 1.2% 0 2.6% African-American % % % Hispanic % % 3 4.2% Native American % 6 2.4% 1 1.4% White % % % Other % 1 0.4% 1 1.4% *Data represent unduplicated youth with most serious allegation for the year The youth most likely to be a part of the 2005 cohort of youth: o Who had a non-violent criminal re-referral is a 15 year old White male. o Who had a violent criminal re-referral is a 15 year old White male. o Who had a BM 11 criminal re-referral is a 16 year old African- American male. 19

20 AGE AND RACE DEMOGRAPHICS OF NON-VIOLENT RECIDIVISTS: 2004 AS COMPARED TO 2005 (N=648) 17+ YRS 20.1% 28.4% 16 YRS 23.0% 23.6% 15 YRS 20.6% 24.5% 14 YRS 14.7% 18.7% HISPANIC 8.0% 10.6% WHITE 47.5% 49.4% BLACK 33.1% 37.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% NON-VIOLENT 2004 NON-VIOLENT 2005 When comparing 2004 non-violent recidivists to 2005 non-violent recidivists: In general, non-violent recidivists are getting younger saw increases in the proportion of 14 and 15 years olds and decreases in the proportion of 16 and 17+ year olds. Of the three racial groups presented, Hispanic recidivism dropped 2 percentage points and White recidivism decreased by 1.9 percentage points. The percentage of African-American non-violent recidivists increased 3.9 percentage points. 20

21 AGE AND RACE DEMOGRAPHICS OF VIOLENT RECIDIVISTS: 2004 AS COMPARED TO 2005 (N=246) 17+ YRS 12.2% 26.3% 16 YRS 23.6% 22.9% 15 YRS 23.3% 26.4% 14 YRS 18.3% 17.4% HISPANIC 13.8% 13.6% WHITE 38.1% 43.1% BLACK 39.0% 42.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% VIOLENT 2004 VIOLENT 2005 In general, violent recidivists are getting younger saw increases in the proportion of 14, 15 and 16 years olds and a sizable decrease of 14.1 percentage points in the proportion of 17+ year olds. Of the three racial groups presented, Hispanic recidivism remained relatively stable. White violent recidivists increased by 5 percentage points. The percentage of African-American violent recidivists decreased 3.4 percentage points. 21

22 AGE AND RACE DEMOGRAPHICS OF BM11 RECIDIVISTS: 2004 AS COMPARED TO 2005 (N=71) 17+ YRS 4.2% 25.0% 16 YRS 21.1% 31.6% 15 YRS 16.9% 15.8% 14 YRS 14.5% 19.7% HISPANIC 4.2% 18.4% WHITE 25.0% 32.4% BLACK 53.9% 59.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% BM BM As with other violent recidivists, BM11 recidivists are also getting younger saw increases in the proportion of 14 and 15 year olds. Sizable decreases for16 and 17+ year olds were also seen with reductions of 10.5 and 20.8 percentage points, respectively. Of the three racial groups presented, Hispanic recidivism decreased by 12.2 percentage points. The proportion of both White and African-American youth who committed BM11 increased in 2005 as compared to White showed a greater increase of 7.4 percentage points as compared to the 5.3 percentage point increase for African-American youth. 22

23 DISCUSSION Nationally, the juvenile crime trend has shown a slight decrease from 2004 to Multnomah County crime has increased 2.79% in 2005 as compared to Of note are the following decreases: 70.0% in homicide and 22.67% in drug crimes and the following increases: 59.38% in robbery and a 13.95% increase in fraud/forgery. The criminal referral rate per 1,000 Multnomah County youth has increased slightly from last year (1.5 criminal referrals per 1,000). Further, juvenile offenders as a percent of the county juvenile population have also increased slightly (0.1%). The County s 2005 juvenile population represents as 2.4 percentage points increase from 2004, yet the number of recidivating youth increased only 1.4 percentage points. Approximately two out of every three juveniles who were referred for a criminal referral in 2004 did not commit a new offense within 12 months of their initial referral. This recidivism rate of 35.0% is the lowest reported since African-American youth are disproportionately represented among the one in three juveniles who had a criminal re-referral. Further, within this group of recidivists is the chronic re-offending population who is responsible for 55% of all new criminal re-referrals in Over half of these chronic re-offenders are African-American. Of note is the disturbing trend of recidivists getting younger. This trend is seen across violent, non-violent and BM11 criminal activity. In terms of reoffending, Hispanic youth demonstrated either stable rates or decreased rates among the three groups of offending: non-violent, violent and BM11. African-American youth experienced increased rates of non-violent and BM11 crimes. White youth rates decreased among non-violent crimes, however these youth had increased rates of violent and BM11 criminal reoffending. RECOMMENDATIONS In 2005, Multnomah County has seen slight increases in crime trends, referral rate per 1,000 Multnomah County youth and percent of County population. Despite these increases, recidivism rates have declined from last year. African-American youth continue to be represented disproportionately in the juvenile justice system in Multnomah County. Over-representation of these youth can be found in the chronic re-offender population (those with three or more criminal referrals within 12 months of initial referral), the violent 23

24 recidivists and the Ballot Measure 11 recidivists. These findings are consistent with findings nationally and with other departmental reports, suggesting that further investigation is needed at a system level to help us understand this phenomenon and identify alternatives for these youth. DCJ is committed to identifying components, processes or practices in working with our youth that may be unknowingly contributing to these issues of over-representation. In addition to our annual reports, we plan to evaluate all programs that serve our youth, both internally and contractually, using both qualitative and quantitative methodolgies. A process evaluation will provide the context of the youth experience, describe the youth flow through the system or service, determine fidelity or adherence to the program or policy and identify what's working and what's not working. An outcome evaluation will determine outcomes for the youth experiencing these programs and services such as recidivism during and after a program and rates of commitment to OYA correctional facilities. This mixed-method approach will allow us to understand these issues in a way that has been previously unknown. 24

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