Puget Sound Regional Economic Outlook

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1 Puget Sound Regional Economic Outlook Electric League of the Pacific Northwest February 23, 2017 Spencer Cohen, PhD Senior Economist Community Attributes Inc.

2 About Community Attributes Regional Economics Land Use Economics Data Dashboards & Business Intelligence Community & Economic Development Information Design China Business Strategy 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 2

3 Key Takeaways Seattle is ahead of the U.S. and other cities in terms of growth and prosperity. But our region is highly reliant on external markets the U.S. economy and global markets. Instability in either can undermine growth. China and emerging markets are leading sources of growth for the region. Slowdowns in these markets could impair future growth here. Seattle and Washington also face many of the same challenges as the rest of the U.S., e.g., inequality. Region expected to remain strong in 2017, but beyond that many uncertainties could affect local economy. 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 3

4 Outline Leading global indicators National indicators Washington s linkages to the global economy Economic outlook Headwinds Tailwinds Projections 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 4

5 Circular Flows of the Economy 5

6 What Drives the Regional Economy? Global environment and international trade Stability and volatility in global markets and supply chains Geopolitical considerations U.S. economic conditions Cost of capital Domestic demand Regional conditions Skill supply and competitiveness Innovation and technology leadership Tapping into future growth opportunities, able to seize these opportunities 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 6

7 Global Economic Trends

8 Global Growth, Annual change (%), constant prices Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 8

9 Global Trade Total merchandise and services trade, current USD Services Merchandise and Commodities Global trade fell 11.4% in 2015 first y/y decline since 2009 (20.4%) Sources: World Trade Organization, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 9

10 3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) Percent, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, based on U.S. Dollar Sources: ICE Benchmark Administration Limited (IBA), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 10

11 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies Index Mar 1973=100, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 11

12 China: GDP Expenditure Components Sources: OECD.Stat, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 12

13 U.S. Economic Trends

14 U.S. Unemployment Rate Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 14

15 Weekly UI Claims, 4-week Moving Average Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 15

16 U.S. Real GDP Growth, Annual Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 16

17 Real Income and GDP Change over time, Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 17

18 U.S. Manufacturing Jobs Millions of jobs China s entry into the WTO Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 18

19 U.S. Share of Global Manufacturing Output Sources: IMF, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 19

20 U.S. Productivity Measures Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2017; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 20

21 Automation or Trade? Estimated Worldwide Supply of Industrial Robots 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 21

22 Puget Sound Economic Growth

23 Economic Growth and Challenges in the Region Seattle has growing housing and homeless challenges Inequality and middle income jobs growth Transportation concerns and access to employment centers Educational funding and performance 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 23

24 Real Annual GDP Growth Seattle Metropolitan Area and U.S. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 24

25 Real GDP Growth, Seattle Metropolitan Area Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 25

26 Seattle Employment Quarterly employment, year-over-year change, Seattle MSA Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 26

27 Unemployment Rate Seattle Metro Area, Washington State, and U.S. Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2017; Community Attributes Inc., Metro area represented by the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett Metropolitan District. Not seasonally adjusted. 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 27

28 Population Change King County and the U.S., Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2016; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 28

29 Productivity Gains Real GDP per worker, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 2015 $ CAGR: 1.4% CAGR: 1.0% CAGR: 0.7% Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 29

30 Real Median Household Income Indexed to 1989 Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2016; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 30

31 Income Gains Percentage change in real wages (2015 $), , Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 31

32 Middle Wage Jobs by Occupation Group Jobs that pay between $38,000 and $77,000 in King County At an average of 1.3 earners per households, jobs that support middle household incomes range in pay from $38,000 to $77,000 per year. Jobs in this wage range increased by 10,000 in Seattle from 2005 to 2013 (0.3% CAGR). All other jobs increased by 135,000 (1.5% CAGR). 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 32

33 Middle Wage Openings by Sector Jobs that pay between $38,00 and $77,000 in King County, 2015 Total Middle Wage Jobs 127,600 68,700 57,300 57,000 51,900 40,900 40,000 The Services sector had 6,000 middle wage job openings in 2015, the most of any sector. Information had the highest growth rate of middle wage jobs from 2014 to In 2015, 4.9% of the sector s middle wage jobs were from new openings. 38,100 28,400 27,900 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 33

34 Sources of Regional Growth

35 Sources of Growth Leading industries Trade Investment

36 Aerospace Business Revenues (2015 $) Sources: Washington Department of Revenue, 2016; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 37

37 Aerospace & Related Jobs by County, 2015 Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Washington Aerospace Partnership, 2013 and 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 38

38 Aerospace Economic Impacts, 2012, 2014, and 2015 Sources: Washington Aerospace Partnership, 2013 and 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 39

39 Information & Communication Technology Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 40

40 Maritime Jobs, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., Maritime Sector employment increased by 5,200 jobs from 2012 to 2015, largely driven by growth in the commercial fishing and seafood products subsector and boat and ship building, repair, and maintenance. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 2.7%. 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 41

41 Defense Spending in Washington Defense industry contracts supported 56,300 jobs in Washington in Additional 100,000 civilian and military defense personnel in state. Sources: Washington Military Alliance, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 42

42 Washington State Goods Exports, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 43

43 Export Markets for Washington Top merchandise and commodity markets, 2016 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 44

44 Workers in Foreign Invested Firms Seattle Region, (estimated) Washington ranks 35 th in FDI jobs/total workforce (2014). Seattle ranked 25 th in cumulative greenfield FDI, Washington ranked 25 th in Chinese FDI from , and 29 th on per capita basis. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2016; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., 2016; Brookings Institute, 2016; Rhodium Group, /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 45

45 Economic Outlook

46 Headwinds Slowdown in China Trump administration and uncertainty on domestic and foreign policy issues Political and social instability Venezuela Middle East Syria, Yemen, Iran Putin South China Sea North Korea Durability of NATO Brexit Populism and nationalism in Europe Global growth weak global growth projections and decline in trade Alternative to TPP without the U.S. Uncertainty around future of ACA Climate Change 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 47

47 Tailwinds Continued growth at Amazon, tech industry overall Boeing aircraft orders and backlog Strength of U.S. economy Higher yields on expectations of fiscal stimulus and regulatory policy easing 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 48

48 Global Growth, Historic and Projections World GDP at PPP, Current dollars, 191 countries Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 49

49 Global Growth Will Slow Down Region World 4.9% 3.7% 3.7% Major Advanced Economies 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% Emerging and Developing Asia 9.3% 7.3% 6.3% Emerging and Developing Europe 5.6% 3.4% 3.3% One of the biggest stories globally will be continued slowdown in Asia. China at the heart of this. Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 50

50 China s Growth (annual growth, inflation adjusted) Unresolved excess debt, especially among local government and SOEs. Rising labor costs. Expected slowdown underway. Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 51

51 Growth among Washington s Leading Export Markets Rank Country CAGR CAGR Difference 1 China 9.4% 6.0% -3.4% 2 Japan 0.7% 0.5% -0.3% 3 Canada 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 4 South Korea 3.9% 3.0% -0.8% 5 United Arab Emirates 4.1% 3.2% -0.9% 6 United Kingdom 1.7% 1.6% -0.1% 7 Taiwan 3.4% 2.1% -1.3% 8 Saudi Arabia 3.7% 2.3% -1.4% 9 Netherlands 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 10 Turkey 4.0% 3.2% -0.8% Sources: International Monetary Fund, 2015; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 52

52 Boeing Aircraft Forecast Boeing currently has a backlog of 5,635 orders. Source: The Boeing Company, /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 53

53 Annual Employment Historic and forecast, Central Puget Sound Region Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department, 2016; Community Attributes Inc., /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 54

54 Commercial Real Estate Development Pipeline 2/23/

55 Residential Real Estate Development Pipeline 2/23/

56 Synopsis and Takeaways on Future Growth Seattle area has strong, tradable industries that will support growth. Major concerns are global in nature declines in trade and economic softening in major export markets could weaken growth in the region. Seattle home to major hubs in ICT, aerospace, and maritime all have strong prospects for growth, assuming trade is not disrupted. Growth has not been even in the region. Housing increasingly unaffordable for many, contributing to homelessness. Slow, downward trend in globalization is possibly on the horizon. 2/23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 57

57 Q&A Spencer Cohen, PhD /23/2017 Puget Sound Economy and Outlook 58

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