The Virginia Economy in 2005 and Beyond
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1 Virginia Government Finance Officers Association The Virginia Economy in 25 and Beyond John C. McClain, AICP Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Center for Regional Analysis, School of Public Policy George Mason University May 2, 25
2 The National Economy
3 U.S. Gross Domestic Product % % 3.7%.8% 1.9% 3.% 4.4% % Q1 5
4 Productivity % yr Avg. = 2.1
5 ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices Non-MFG MFG 5 'Mar-1 'Mar-2 'Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5
6 Housing Trends: New & Existing Home Sales (s) (s) Existing (left scale) New (Rt Scale) 'Mar-3 'Mar-2 'Mar-1 Mar-4 Mar-5
7 Consumer Confidence 1 Mar-5 Present Situation Peak Jul 2 Expectations Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Mar-4
8 Initial Unemployment Claims Thousands 5 (4-week moving average) Consecutive Months Below Apr 1 Apr 2 Apr 3 Apr 4 Apr-5
9 Annual Rate of Change in Jobs - US Thru Mar 25 THOUSANDS Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Bottom 2.3 M Feb 2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Feb M (Highest Rate since Sep 2)
10 Annual Rate of Change in Employed (HH Survey) Thru Mar 24 THOUSANDS Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Turned + Aug 2, 16 mos. before PR Bottom 2. M Jan 2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5
11 Leading Index Monthly Over-the-Year Percent Changes % Aug-4 Jul-4 Jun-4 May-4 Apr-4 Mar-4 Feb-4 Jan-4 Jan-5 'Dec-4 Nov-4 Oct-4 Sep-4 Mar-5 Feb-5
12 Coincident Index Monthly Over-the-Year Percent Changes % Aug-4 Jul-4 Jun-4 May-4 Apr-4 Mar-4 Feb-4 Jan-4 Mar-5 Feb-5 Jan-5 'Dec-4 Nov-4 Oct-4 Sep-4
13 The Virginia Economy
14 GDP/GSP Trends U.S. Virginia %
15 Virginia Annual Job Change: Average = 61,/Year 86, Year
16 Virginia and Selected States Job Change Mar 4 Mar 5 Thousands VA NY MA GA PA CA TX IL MI Not Seasonally Adjusted
17 Virginia and Selected States Job Change Mar 4 Mar 5 Percent VA NY MA GA PA CA TX IL MI Not Seasonally Adjusted
18 Percentage Virginia and Selected States Ranked by Unemployment Rate March U.S. 5.4% VA NY GA MA TX CA PA IL MI Not Seasonally Adjusted
19 Job Change By Sector - Virginia (Ranked by Size of Sector) Prof & Bus Svc St & Loc Govt Retail Ed & Hlth Services Manufacturing Leisure & Hosp Construction Financial Federal Other Svcs Transp & Util Wlse Trade Information (s) Total = 172,
20 Mar 4 Mar 5 Job Change By Sector - Virginia (Ranked by Size of Sector) Prof & Bus Svc St & Loc Govt Retail Ed & Hlth Services Manufacturing Leisure & Hosp Construction Financial Federal Other Svcs Transp & Util Wlse Trade Information (s) Total = 78,
21 Share of Job Growth By Sector U.S. vs Virginia % Prof & Bus Svc Educ & Hlth Svc Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp Const Other Svc Financial Information US Virginia Mfg Wlse Trade Transp & Util Fed Govt St & Loc Govt
22 The Virginia Economy by Metro Area
23 Metro Areas in Virginia Job Change Last Ten Years Thousands No. Virginia 334 VB-Norfolk-NN 115 Richmond 86 Roanoke Lynchburg Charlottesville Blacksburg Harrisonburg Winchester Danville
24 Metro Areas in Virginia Job Change Last Five Years Thousands No. Virginia 144 VB-Norfolk-NN 41 Richmond 29 Roanoke Lynchburg -6-3 Charlottesville Blacksburg Harrisonburg Winchester Danville
25 Metro Areas in Virginia Job Change Last 12 Months Thousands No. Virginia 56.8 VB-Norfolk-NN Richmond Roanoke Lynchburg Charlottesville Blacksburg Harrisonburg Winchester Danville
26 Metro Areas in Virginia Unemployment Rate Percent Statewide 3.4 No. Virginia 2.6 VB-Norfolk-NN 3.9 Richmond 3.6 Roanoke Lynchburg Charlottesville Blacksburg 3.8 Harrisonburg 2.8 Winchester 3. Danville
27 Metro Area Unemployment Rates in March BLS Press Release 4/28 Lowest of All Metro Areas 2.6% Honolulu, HI 2.8% Harrisonburg, VA 2.9% Charlottesville, VA 3.% Winchester, VA-WV Of Metro Areas with 1 Million + Population 3.6% Richmond,VA,, Washington-Arlington Arlington- Alex DC-MD MD-VA-WV (No. Virginia = 2.6%) 3.9% Las Vegas, VA Beach-Norfolk Norfolk-NN, NN, VA
28 The Importance of Federal Spending to the Virginia Economy
29 Metro Comparisons Job Change Last Five Years (2/ 2/5) 15 Largest Metro Areas Thousands WASHINGTON Miami Phoenix Houston Los Angeles Philadelphia Minneapolis Atlanta Dallas New York Seattle Boston SF-Oakland Chicago Detroit
30 Billions Current $ Total Federal Spending in Virginia Average Annual Increase = 6.5% Total into VA Economy = $768 Bil Change = +7.9B$, 9.6%
31 Billions Current $ 4 Federal Spending by Type Virginia Procurement 3 Retirement 2 Wages 1 All Other
32 Total Federal Spending in Virginia by Area Billions Current $ 4 3 No. Virginia 2 Rest of State 1 Hampton Rds
33 Federal Procurement in Virginia Billions Current $ 4 Total 3 No. Virginia 2 1 Hampton Rest of State
34 Billions Current $ Federal Spending by Type Northern Virginia Total Average Annual Increase = 8.8% Total = $ 311 Bil. Procurement 1 All Other
35 Billions Current $ 4 Federal Spending by Type Hampton Roads Average Annual Increase = 3.2% Total = $ 187 Bil. Total Procurement 21 All Other 23 22
36 Procurement Dollars Are More Important Than Salary Dollars Virginia Economic Multipliers Total Output Jobs* Personal Earnings** Payroll $ Procurement $ * Per $1 Million ** Procurement-related job has higher earnings ($4,38)
37 The Outlook for 25+
38 Productivity, Unemployment and Job Growth Annual Percent Change, Income Productivity Unemployment 2 GDP Job Change
39 Interest Rate Trends and Outlook Average Annual Rate, Yr Fixed 1-Yr Treasury Federal Funds Inflation
40 GDP/GSP Outlook Virginia U.S %
41 Economic Outlook 21 (Annual % Change) % GSP Jobs
42 Job Change in Virginia Annual Average , 2,7 86,9 97, 85, 75,
43
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