TOPICS POPULATION PLACES ECONOMIC SECTORS JOBS TRAINING RESOURCES GOVERNMENT

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2 TOPICS POPULATION PLACES ECONOMIC SECTORS JOBS TRAINING RESOURCES GOVERNMENT 2

3 PEOPLE 3

4 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US AND NC POPULATION GROWTH RATES % points

5 COMPONENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH % s 1990s 2000s 2010s births-deaths net in-migration immigration 5

6 NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION PROJECTIONS NUMBER (MILLIONS) % OF TOTAL Total Population Under &

7 FORECASTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS (%) NC US 7

8 PLACES 8

9 COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH: 1970 TO 2010 ALLEGHANY ASHE CASWELL VANCE NORTHAMPTON GATES CAMDEN SURRY STOKES PERSON WARREN HERTFORD CURRITUCK WATAUGA WILKES ROCKINGHAM GRANVILLE HALIFAX PASQUOTANK YADKIN FORSYTH ALAMANCE BERTIE PERQUIMANS AVERY GUILFORD DURHAM FRANKLIN NASH CHOWAN MITCHELL CALDWELL ORANGE MADISON YANCEY ALEXANDER DAVIE EDGECOMBE TYRRELL IREDELL DAVIDSON MARTIN BURKE RANDOLPH CHATHAM WAKE WASHINGTON BUNCOMBE MCDOWELL CATAWBA ROWAN WILSON DARE SWAIN HAYWOOD PITT BEAUFORT LEE JOHNSTON RUTHERFORD LINCOLN GREENE HYDE GRAHAM JACKSON HENDERSON CLEVELAND CABARRUS MONTGOMERY HARNETT POLK GASTON STANLY MOORE WAYNE CRAVEN TRANSYLVANIA MECKLENBURG LENOIR CHEROKEE MACON PAMLICO CLAY RICHMOND CUMBERLAND JONES UNION ANSON HOKE SAMPSON DUPLIN SCOTLAND ROBESON ONSLOW CARTERET BLADEN PENDER 100% or above growth COLUMBUS BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER 50% to 99% growth 0% to 49% growth population loss 9

10 COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH population loss DARE CURRITUCK HYDE TYRRELL CAMDEN PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS CHOWAN GATES WASHINGTON CARTERET PAMLICO BEAUFORT BERTIE HERTFORD MARTIN CRAVEN PITT JONES ONSLOW NORTHAMPTON LENOIR GREENE NEW EDGECOMBE HALIFAX HANOVER NASH DUPLIN PENDER WILSON WAYNE WARREN BRUNSWICK FRANKLIN VANCE SAMPSON JOHNSTON BLADEN WAKE GRANVILLE COLUMBUS DURHAM HARNETT CUMBERLAND PERSON LEE HOKE ORANGE ROBESON CHATHAM CASWELL ALAMANCE MOORE SCOTLAND RICHMOND RANDOLPH GUILFORD ROCKINGHAM MONTGOMERY ANSON STANLY FORSYTH DAVIDSON STOKES SURRY DAVIE UNION ROWAN CABARRUS YADKIN IREDELL MECKLENBURG WILKES ALLEGHANY GASTON CATAWBA LINCOLN ALEXANDER ASHE CALDWELL BURKE WATAUGA CLEVELAND AVERY MCDOWELL RUTHERFORD POLK YANCEY MITCHELL HENDERSON BUNCOMBE MADISON TRANSYLVANIA HAYWOOD JACKSON MACON SWAIN CLAY GRAHAM 0% to 34% growth 35% to 69% growth 70% or above growth CHEROKEE 10

11 US MEGA-REGIONS

12 OR, COULD A RURAL RENAISSANCE OCCUR? VIRTUALIZATION E-COMMERCE + DRONE DELIVERY DRIVERLESS TRANSPORT METRO TIPPING POINT 12

13 ECONOMIC SECTORS 13

14 FORCES SHAPING THE ECONOMIC FUTURE AGING POPULATION TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND IMPLEMENTATION SHIFT OF INFLUENCE TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SHIFTS IN TASTES AND PREFERENCES ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 14

15 FOUR SECTORS TO WATCH FOR FUTURE GROWTH TECHNOLOGY TOURISM AGRIBUSINESS RETIREMENT 15

16 JOBS 16

17 BIG QUESTION: IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? FARMING TO MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING TO SERVICES SERVICES TO WHAT? 1,000,000 NEW JOBS IN 2050 OR 460,000 LESS? 17

18 WHERE ARE THE NEW JOBS? DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENACE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL INTERACTION LOGISTICS AND DATA MANAGEMENT/ANALYSIS AGED ASSISTANCE EDUCATION/RE-TRAINING SOCIAL INTERACTION ARTISANSHIP 18

19 TRAINING 19

20 21 ST CENTURY EDUCATION SYSTEM K-12: COLLEGE TRACK EMPLOYMENT TRACK TECHNICAL COLLEGE INTERACTION WITH JOB MARKET INTERACTION WITH HIGH SCHOOL CORE COLLEGE ADVANCED COLLEGE RENEWAL EDUCATION 20

21 MUST CLOSELY MONITOR JOB CHANGE AND EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS WILL NEED TO RAPIDLY REDEPLOY RESOURCES 21

22 RESOURCES 22

23 SEA INVASION 23

24 NORTH CAROLINA WATER USAGE EFFICIENCY gallons gallons per $ daily gals. per person daily gals. per GDP 2015 $ 0 24

25 US AND NC ENERGY CONSUMPTION millions of BTUs per person NC per capita US per capita NC per $ GDP US per $ GDP thousands of BTUs per GDP dollar 25

26 CURRENT AND FUTURE NC POWER SOURCES Power Source Coal 19.6% 15.7% Nuclear 16.8% 12.6% Oil 31.3% 34.6% Natural Gas 18.0% 24.3% Hydro 1.8% 1.5% Renewable 6.1% 11.3% 26

27 GOVERNMENT 27

28 THE COMING GENERATIONAL SQUEEZE? % OF GDP Education Transportation Health care 28

29 OTHER PUBLIC ISSUES UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY STATE PENSION SYSTEM TAX SYSTEM 29

30 NEHRU ONCE SAID: LIFE IS LIKE A GAME OF CARDS. THE HAND YOU ARE DEALT IS DETERMINISM; THE WAY YOU PLAY THE HAND IS FREE WILL. 30