West Virginia s Economic Outlook
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1 West Virginia s Economic Outlook John Deskins, Ph.D. Contractor s Association of West Virginia July 2018 Bureau of Business & Economic Research College of Business & Economics West Virginia University Copyright 2018 by WVU Research Corporation
2 Keys to Understanding Our State #1 - Recent Job Trends
3 Total Employment West Virginia 715 West Virginia, Thousands United States, Millions West Virginia US
4 Keys to Understanding Our State #2 - Energy
5 West Virginia Coal and Natural Gas Output 170 Coal Production (Millions of Short Tons, SAAR) Natural Gas Production (Billions of Cubic Feet) Coal Natural Gas
6 Key Drivers of Demand Environmental Regulatory Climate Natural Gas Boom International Demand
7 140 West Virginia Regional Coal Production Millions of short tons, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 120 Southern WV Northern WV 20 0
8 3.0 Natural Gas Production States in Marcellus/Utica Shale Trillions of cubic feet Ohio 1.5 West Virginia Pennsylvania 0.0
9 Keys to Understanding Our State #3 - Industrial Diversification (Or Lack Thereof)
10 Real GDP Growth 114 Index, 2007= West Virginia US 98 96
11 Real GDP Growth 114 Index, 2007= West Virginia US WV without coal and gas 98 96
12 Keys to Understanding Our State #4 - Income Growth and Composition
13 Forecast Growth by Major Source of Real Personal Income, Transfer Payments Personal Income Wages & Salaries Proprietor's Income 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% Average Annual Growth, %
14 Components of Personal Income Proprietor's Income 7% Other Labor Income 12% Investment Income 14% Transfer Payments 23% Residence Adjustment, 2% Proprietor's Income 6% Other Labor Income 10% Wages & Salaries 42% Investment Income 14% Residence Adjustment, 4% Transfer Payments 26% Wages & Salaries 40%
15 Keys to Understanding Our State #5 - Demographics
16 10 % of Labor Force Unemployment Rate 9 US 8 7 West Virginia Bureau of Business and Economic Research
17 West Virginia Mississippi Alabama New Mexico Arkansas South Carolina Louisiana Kentucky Florida Arizona Tennessee New York Oklahoma Michigan North Carolina California Delaware Nevada Hawaii Pennsylvania US Ohio New Jersey Georgia Montana Oregon Maine Texas Missouri Washington Idaho Indiana Rhode Island Illinois Virginia Massachusetts Wyoming Alaska Connecticut Kansas Vermont Maryland New Hampshire Colorado Iowa Wisconsin Nebraska South Dakota Utah Minnesota District of Columbia North Dakota Labor Force Participation (2017) 75 Percent of Civilian Non-institutionalized Population
18 Share of Residents 25 to 34 Years Old with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher WA MT ND ME OR ID MN VT NH WY SD WI MI NY MA CT RI CA NV UT CO NE KS IA MO IL IN KY OH WV PA NJ MD DE VA AZ NM OK AR MS TN AL GA SC NC % With a BS Degree or Higher AK TX LA FL HI
19 All-Cause Mortality Rate WA MT ND ME OR ID MN VT NH WY SD WI MI NY MA CT RI NE IA PA NJ NV UT IL IN OH MD DE CA CO WV KS MO KY VA AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK HI TX LA FL Age-Adjusted Deaths per 100,000 Population
20 Opioid-Overdose Deaths, U.S. and WV 40 Deaths per 100,000 Population West Virginia U.S Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics. Note: Rates are age-adjusted, except those for 2005 and 2009, which are calculated using data from WV Health Statistics Center.
21 Keys to Understanding Our State #6 - Regional Variation
22 Hancock Brooke Southern Coalfields Ohio Marshall Morgan Berkeley Wetzel Monongalia Marion Preston Mineral Hampshire Jefferson Wood Tyler Pleasants Doddridge Ritchie Harrison Taylor Barbour Tucker Grant Hardy Wirt Calhoun Gilmer Lewis Upshur Randolph Pendleton Mason Jackson Roane Braxton Webster Putnam Clay Pocahontas Cabell Kanawha Nicholas Wayne Lincoln Mingo Logan Boone Wyoming Fayette Raleigh Summers Greenbrier Monroe Real Wages: 27% since 2010Q1 Employment: 21% Mercer McDowell
23 Hancock Brooke New River Gorge Area Ohio Marshall Morgan Berkeley Wetzel Monongalia Marion Preston Mineral Hampshire Jefferson Wood Tyler Pleasants Doddridge Ritchie Harrison Taylor Barbour Tucker Grant Hardy Wirt Calhoun Gilmer Lewis Upshur Randolph Pendleton Mason Jackson Roane Braxton Webster Putnam Clay Pocahontas Cabell Kanawha Nicholas Wayne Lincoln Mingo Logan Boone Wyoming Fayette Raleigh Summers Greenbrier Monroe Real Wages: 2% since 2010Q1 Employment: 3% Mercer McDowell
24 Hancock Brooke Metro Valley Ohio Marshall Morgan Berkeley Wetzel Monongalia Marion Preston Mineral Hampshire Jefferson Wood Tyler Pleasants Doddridge Ritchie Harrison Taylor Barbour Tucker Grant Hardy Wirt Calhoun Gilmer Lewis Upshur Randolph Pendleton Mason Jackson Roane Braxton Webster Putnam Clay Pocahontas Cabell Kanawha Nicholas Wayne Lincoln Mingo Logan Boone Wyoming Fayette Raleigh Summers Greenbrier Monroe Real Wages: 5% since 2010Q1 Employment: 1% Mercer McDowell
25 Hancock Brooke North-Central Ohio Marshall Morgan Berkeley Wetzel Monongalia Marion Preston Mineral Hampshire Jefferson Wood Tyler Pleasants Doddridge Ritchie Harrison Taylor Barbour Tucker Grant Hardy Wirt Calhoun Gilmer Lewis Upshur Randolph Pendleton Mason Jackson Roane Braxton Webster Putnam Clay Pocahontas Cabell Kanawha Nicholas Wayne Lincoln Mingo Logan Boone Wyoming Fayette Raleigh Summers Greenbrier Monroe Real Wages: 12% since 2010Q1 Employment: 6% Mercer McDowell
26 Hancock Brooke Eastern Panhandle Ohio Marshall Morgan Berkeley Wetzel Monongalia Marion Preston Mineral Hampshire Jefferson Wood Tyler Pleasants Doddridge Ritchie Harrison Taylor Barbour Tucker Grant Hardy Wirt Calhoun Gilmer Lewis Upshur Randolph Pendleton Mason Jackson Roane Braxton Webster Putnam Clay Pocahontas Cabell Kanawha Nicholas Wayne Lincoln Mingo Logan Boone Wyoming Fayette Raleigh Summers Greenbrier Monroe Real Wages: 21% since 2010Q1 Employment: 16% Mercer McDowell
27 Hancock Brooke Shale Gas Boom Region Ohio Marshall Morgan Berkeley Wetzel Monongalia Marion Preston Mineral Hampshire Jefferson Wood Tyler Pleasants Doddridge Ritchie Harrison Taylor Barbour Tucker Grant Hardy Wirt Calhoun Gilmer Lewis Upshur Randolph Pendleton Mason Jackson Roane Braxton Webster Putnam Clay Pocahontas Cabell Kanawha Nicholas Wayne Lincoln Mingo Logan Boone Wyoming Fayette Raleigh Summers Greenbrier Monroe Real Wages: 13% since 2010Q1 Employment: 2% Mercer McDowell
28 Keys to Understanding Our State #7 - Exports
29 14 Billions of $ West Virginia Exports
30 Keys to Understanding Our State #8 - Entrepreneurship
31 Employment in West Virginia by Employer Type Government, 22% Small Business, 39% Large Business, 39%
32 West Virginia Small Business Births and Deaths 5.0 Thousands Births Deaths Source: US Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy
33 Keys to Understanding Our State #10 - Where Do We Go From Here?
34 West Virginia Employment Growth Forecast by Sector Natural Resources & Mining Construction Professional & Business Services Manufacturing Education & Health Services Information Total Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Trade, Transportation & Utilities Financial Activities -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% Average annual growth, %
35 What I Think About Think Positive: We re Improving! But Think Realistic: Real Sense of Urgency Think People: Human Capital Investment Think Infrastructure Think Good Government Think Regionally Think Entrepreneurship Think Exports Think Midstream and Downstream Gas Think Manufacturing Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics Think Tourism: Adventure Tourism/High Income/Second Homes Think New Industries: Data Centers
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