America s New Urban and Regional Demographics

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1 America s New Urban and Regional Demographics William H. Frey Metropolitan Policy Program-The Brookings Institution Population Studies Center-The University of Michigan

2 * Population and Migration Trends * Race and Ethnic Shifts * Aging and Younging

3 State Growth, Below 0% 0% -4% 5% - 9% 10% - 20% 20% +

4 Growth Rates for and Northeast Midwest South West

5 Medium NE Metro Growth, A l a s k a 1 Allentown 10.9% 2 Lancaster 10.4% 3 Harrisburg 7.9% 4 Poughkeepsie 7.8% 5 Worcester 6.3% 6 New Haven 4.7% 7 Bridgeport 3.9% 8 Syracuse 1.9% 9 Springfield 1.9% 10 Scranton.5%

6 Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

7 Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Native Born 37% Foreign Born 66% Spanish at Home 72% Asian Language at Home 65%

8 Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland Immigratio n Domestic Migration

9 Domestic Migration Magnets, Phoenix 530,579 2 Riverside, CA 457,430 3 Atlanta 412,832 4 Dallas 307,907 5 Las Vegas 299,027 6 Tampa 254,650 7 Charlotte 243,399 8 Houston 242,573

10 Immigrant Magnet Metros, New York 1,079,016 2 Los Angeles 803,614 3 Miami 506,423 4 Chicago 363,134 5 Dallas 323,941 6 Washington DC 310,222 7 Houston 289,648 8 San Francisco 257,318

11 Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, New York -1,920,745 2 Los Angeles -1,337,522 3 Chicago -547,430 4 Detroit -361,632 5 San Francisco -343,834 6 New Orleans - 298,721 7 Miami -284,860 8 San Jose -233,133

12 Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) New York Boston Philadelphia Immigration Domestic Migration

13 Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Immigration Domestic Migration Allentown Worcester Syracuse

14 Migration Slowdown to *

15 College Graduates (age 25+) Rates of Migration to Source: W. Frey analysis of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement

16 Intercounty Reasons for Move: Employment vs Housing Source: W. Frey analysis of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement

17 California versus Mountain West Annual Net Domestic Migration California Mountain West

18 New York versus Florida Annual Net Domestic Migration New York Florida

19 Top Metro Net Migration Gainers, Rank Metro Net Mig 1 Phoenix 98,789 2 Riverside 72,341 3 Tampa 51,985 4 Orlando 51,826 5 Atlanta 51,305 6 Las Vegas 39,331

20 New and Old Net Migration Gainers, Rank Metro Net Mig 1 Houston 49,662 2 Dallas 45,241 3 Austin 25,654 4 Raleigh 20,095 5 Denver 19,831 6 Charlotte 19,211 9 Atlanta 17, Phoenix 12, Tampa 4, Riverside Las Vegas -1, Orlando -4,279

21 Florida Metro Areas Annual Net Migration ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , Orlando Tampa Jacksonville

22 Metro Phoenix Domestic and International Migration Domestic International

23 Texas Metro Areas Annual Net Migration ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, , Dallas Houston Austin

24 Annual Population Growth, Urban, Suburban, Exurban Urban Suburban Exurban

25 Race Ethnic Shares 2010 Population Growth White Black Am Indian Asian Hawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic

26 Race Ethnic Profiles of Regions 2010 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 12% 28% 4% 3% 3% 6% 2% 12% 51% 14% 3% 7% 11% 67% 77% White Black Asian Other Hispanic

27 Greatest Immigrant Growth Alabama South Carolina Tennessee Arkansas Kentucky North Carolina South Dakota Georgia

28 Hispanic Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

29 Greatest Hispanic Growth Rates State Growth 1 South Carolina 148% 2 Alabama 145% 3 Tennessee 134% 4 Kentucky 122% 5 Arkansas 114% 6 North Carolina 111% 7 Maryland 106% 8 Mississippi 106%

30 Asian Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

31 Greatest Asian Growth Rates State Growth 1 Nevada 116% 2 North Dakota 92% 3 Arizona 91% 4 North Carolina 84% 5 Georgia 82% 6 Arkansas 79% 7 New Hampshire 79% 8 Delaware 76%

32 Black Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

33 Largest Black Gains State Gains 1 Florida 586,832 2 Georgia 579,335 3 Texas 522,570 4 North Carolina 296,553 5 Maryland 209,494 6 Virginia 147,326 7 Pennsylvania 124,654 8 Tennessee 121,187

34 White Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

35 Largest White Gains State Gains 1 North Carolina 576,840 2 Texas 464,032 3 Florida 426,213 4 Arizona 421,389 5 Colorado 317,913 6 Utah 317,454 7 South Carolina 310,449 8 Tennessee 294,852

36 Largest White Losses State Losses 1 California -860,537 2 New York -456,734 3 New Jersey -342,331 4 Illinois -256,387 5 Michigan -236,752 6 Pennsylvania -227,803 7 Massachusetts -213,559 8 Ohio -178,848

37 Metro-NonMetro Race Changes, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Large Metros** Small Metros NonMetros White* Black* Asian* Other Races* Hispanic

38 Race Ethnic Compositions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Los Angeles Atlanta Philadelphia White Black Hispanic Asian Other

39 LA and NY: Race Change , , , , , , ,000 Los Angeles New York White Black Asian Hispanic

40 Atlanta and Phila: Race Change , , , ,000 50,000-50, ,000 Atlanta Philadelphia White Black Asian Hispanic

41 City and Suburb Populations, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 53 Cities Suburbs White Black Am Indian Asian Hawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic 72 65

42 Change in City and Suburb Population by Race/Ethnicity 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, ,000,000 City Suburbs White Black Asian 2+ Races Hispanic

43 City Suburb Race-Ethnic Profiles Selected Metros 100% Los Angeles Atlanta Philadelphia 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% City Suburbs City Suburbs City Suburbs White Black Asian/other Hispanic

44

45 Cities with Greatest Black Losses City Black Loss 1 Detroit -185,393 2 Chicago -181,453 3 New York -100,859 4 Los Angeles -54,606 5 Washington DC -39,035 6 Oakland -33,502 7 Cleveland -33,304 8 Atlanta -29,746

46 Metro Residents Living in Suburbs White Black Asian Hispanic

47 US Growth by Age

48 Growth by Ages Atlanta Philadelphia Pittsburgh Under

49 State Growth in Child Population*, Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% and over Under age 18

50 Change in Child Population by Race-Ethnicity 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, ,000,000-4,000,000-6,000,000 White Black Am Indian Asian 2+ Races Hispanic

51 Percent Minority Children, 2010 GT 50% 40% - 50% 25% - 40% Under 25%

52

53 Percent Children with Immigrant Parents % 40 35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31% 30 23% CA NY NV AZ FL NJ TX US Ist Gen 2nd Gen

54 Children Speaking Other than English GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under 6% * Ages 5-17

55 US Growth by Age

56 Median Ages for States, and over 38 to to 38 Below 36

57 Age 65 + Growth GT 25% 15% -25% 10% -15% under 10%

58 Population Changes - 3 Decades 12,000 Young Elderly Old Elderly (65-74) (75 +) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Source: William William H. H. Frey Frey analysis

59 RANK: Age 65+ Growth, A l a s k a 1 Raleigh 60% 2 Austin 53% 3 Las Vegas 50% 4 Boise City 46% 5 Atlanta 44% 6 Provo 42% 7 Colorado Springs 40% 8 Houston 39% 9 Dallas 38% 10 Charlotte 36%

60 RANK: Age Growth, A l a s k a 1 Raleigh 60% 2 Austin 53% 3 Las Vegas 50% 4 Boise City 46% 5 Atlanta 44% 6 Provo 42% 7 Colorado Springs 40% 8 Houston 39% 9 Dallas 38% 10 Charlotte 36%

61 Projected Number of Moves by Age

62 Projected Age 65+ Growth , US States 140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69%

63 Projected Age 65+ Growth, percent growth Florida California New York

64 Percent Age 65+, Central and Suburban Counties, Projected : Selected Metro Areas New York Philadelphia Chicago Los Angeles Central Cos. Source: Source: William William H. H. Frey Frey analysis analysis Suburban Cos.

65 Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife % With 3+ Kids 30% 55% % Not Married 21% 36% %Women Not Working 23% 50% % HS Dropout 14% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Boomers Parents

66 Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Children % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Seniors white Black Asian/Other Hispanic

67 Contributions to Labor Force Growth (in millions) White Black Asian/Other Hispanic

68 Race for Age Groups: Arizona 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 42 Age Under Age Age Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic

69 Race for Age Groups: US 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Under Age Age Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic

70 Race for Age Groups: Minnesota 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% % Age Under 15 Age Age Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic

71 Useful Websites