ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2008 TO FALL 2014

Transcription

1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2008 TO FALL 2014 Institutional Research Office University of Hawai i July 2008 File Reference: Management and Planning Support Folder, Projections Reports available online at:

2 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI'I COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2008 TO FALL 2014 INTRODUCTION This report presents information on historical and projected headcount enrollment for the University of Hawai'i Community Colleges: Hawai'i, Honolulu, Kapi'olani, Kaua'i, Leeward, Maui, and Windward. The projections are statistical extrapolations of current trends in enrollment by registration status and program area. They do not set enrollment targets and, in general, do not take into account planned or potential changes in campus policies or procedures. They should be considered as an extension into the future of current enrollment trends. The enrollment projections are based upon unduplicated headcounts of students enrolled in credit courses. Included are classified students enrolled in liberal arts or vocational programs as well as unclassified students. Special students (concurrent students and early admits) are included for all years, both historical and projected. Historical data are included in the tables to facilitate comparison and analysis. They were extracted from student enrollment, academic crossover and course registration data files. Forecasts for Hawai'i public high school seniors by school district were provided by the Department of Education for the State of Hawai>i. Forecasts for Hawai>i public and private high school graduates were obtained from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). Both of these reports were updated in Spring METHODOLOGY The projections for each campus are broken out by registration status: first-time, transfer, returning and continuing. Enrollment for each registration status category is forecast separately (discussed in detail below). Breakout by program area (liberal arts, career and technical education and unclassified) for first-time, transfer and returning students is made using average distribution ratios. For continuing students, breakout by program area is made using continuation rates. Note that the high and low alternate projection series have been discontinued. The projections given here may be considered mid-level forecasts. Forecast error, as measured over five years, has been applied to the basic forecast to produce the upper and lower boundaries shown in the charts (Figure 3 and following). First-time student enrollment is divided into five sub-categories, depending upon the high school of origin. Each category is forecast separately: (a) Hawai>i public high school graduates entering the UH Community Colleges in the fall semester immediately following graduation from high school are called direct public entrants. The enrollment projections make use of the public high school senior forecast provided by the Hawai i Department of Education (see Appendix A). Historical participation rates of high school seniors are calculated for each campus by school district. An average of these rates is then applied to the annual high school senior forecast by district to yield the projected number of direct entrants.

3 (b) (c) (d) Hawai>i private high school graduates entering the UH Community Colleges in the fall semester immediately following their graduation from high school are called direct private entrants. The enrollment projections make use of the private high school graduate forecast for Hawai>i published by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) (see Appendix B). Historical ratios of direct private entrants to total Hawai>i private high school graduates are calculated, by campus. An average ratio is then applied to the WICHE annual private high school graduate forecast to yield the projected number of direct private entrants. First-time students from the U.S. mainland, as well as those from foreign countries and U.S. related areas, are forecast using trends or constants. The U.S. related areas include students from U.S. Territories (American Samoa, Guam and the Virgin Islands), students from U.S. Commonwealth states (Puerto Rico and the Northern Marianas) and Compact of Free Association member states (Federated States of Micronesia, Palau and the Republic of the Marshall Islands). All other first-time entrants, such as those who completed high school via the General Education Development (GED) examination, those Hawai i high school graduates who have been out of high school for more than one year and those students who did not graduate from high school, are called other first-time students. Other first-time students are projected for each campus using historical averages. Transfer and Returning student enrollment generally are forecast using one of two methods: for those campuses where the enrollment shows a distinct trend, a trend line is used; for those campuses where the enrollment does not show a trend, a constant is used. In a few cases, the enrollment projection may make use of an annual numerical increase. Continuing students are forecast for each campus using continuation rates. In this report, a continuation rate is the ratio of continuing enrollment for a given program area to the previous fall semester's total enrollment for that same program area. Historical average continuation rates are applied to the total enrollment by program area to forecast the next year=s continuing enrollment. Table 1 provides headcount enrollment for the UH Community College system by registration status category and program. The numbers are a sum of the individual forecasts by campus. Table 2 gives the enrollment indices for the campuses and the UHCC system as a whole. Table 3 summarizes headcount by campus and registration status category, while Table 4 summarizes headcount by campus and program. Table 5 provides breakout by attendance status; the distribution of enrollment by full-time and parttime uses the two-year average proportions. Appendix A shows historical and DOE projected enrollments of Hawai>i public high school seniors by geographic district (updated in May of 2008). Appendix B gives WICHE forecasts of Hawai>i public and private high school graduates through academic year (published in March 2008). In addition to these tables at the UH Community College system level, detailed tables are included for each UHCC campus which project headcount enrollment by registration status, headcount by program, student semester hours (SSH) offered by program and full-time equivalent (FTE) course enrollments by program.

4 Figure 1 illustrates the historical headcount enrollment at the UH Community Colleges from Fall 1997 to Fall 2007 and the projected enrollment through Fall Figure 2 provides an enrollment index to facilitate comparison with other University of Hawai>i units and campuses (Fall 2007 = 100). Figure 3 shows the mid-level forecast with upper and lower boundaries, while Figure 4 illustrates the historical enrollment for the UH Community Colleges from inception through Fall 2007 and projected enrollment through A trend line also has been plotted for general comparison. A comparable series of charts is provided for each UH Community College campus. ANALYSIS AND HIGHLIGHTS Total headcount enrollment for the University of Hawai>i Community Colleges increased 2.5% in Fall 2007, to measure 25,890 students (Table 2 & Figure 1). Headcount enrollment is forecast to increase 1.4% in Fall 2008, to measure 26,245 students, and to increase at an annual average rate of about 0.5% through 2014, when enrollment will measure about 26,870 students. Enrollment grew rapidly from the founding of the UH Community Colleges in 1965 through Fall 1976, as new campuses were added and as the "baby boom" generation entered college (Figure 4). Except for a brief spike in , enrollment remained stable between Fall 1976 and Fall Beginning in Fall 1989, enrollment began to grow rapidly, reaching the historical peak of 27,905 students in Fall Enrollment then declined for a number of years, falling to 23,777 students by Fall Since then, enrollment has entered another period of mild growth. The long-term trend since Fall 1975 has been moderately upward. The current enrollment forecast for the UH Community Colleges as a whole lies slightly below this long term-trend line. Hawai>i public high school seniors are forecast by the Hawai>i Department of Education to increase mildly through academic year , then to decline through (Appendix A). The going rate of public high school students into the UH Community Colleges measured 23.1% in Fall 2007, up slightly from the previous fall semester (see the MAPS report on the High School Background of First-Time Students, Fall 2007 ). Given this forecast, direct public entrants are expected to increase modestly through Fall 2009 then decline (Table 1). The WICHE forecast for Hawai i private high school graduates shows the number increasing somewhat in Academic Year , then remaining near or above 3,000 graduates through the forecast period (Appendix B). The number of direct private entrants into the UH Community Colleges may be expected to remain near current levels or increase moderately through Fall Given recent enrollment trends, enrollment of other first-time students, including those from the U.S. mainland and foreign countries, may be expected to remain near current levels. Overall, this combination of factors will lead to modest increases in first-time students over the next two years, followed by stagnant or slightly declining numbers. In contrast to first-time enrollment, transfer and returning enrollment show greater growth potential. Modest increase in transfer enrollment may be anticipated as some students choose to begin their studies at a UH Community College. Also, as the economy slows, returning enrollment may be expected to increase modestly, as students return to college for additional vocational training.

5 PROJECTIONS BY CAMPUS Hawai>i Community College: Headcount enrollment increased 10.4% in Fall 2007 to measure 2,603 students (Table A2 & Figure A1). Despite declining in Fall 2005 and Fall 2006, enrollment has shown a moderate upward trend since Fall Growth is forecast primarily on the strength of the recent trend in transfer enrollment, which has doubled since Fall First-time enrollment is also expected to increase through Fall 2009, due primarily to higher numbers of Big Island public high school graduates. Enrollment is projected to increase 3.0% in Fall 2008 to 2,681, and to increase at an average annual rate of about 1.1% through Fall Overall, enrollment has shown a moderate long-term upward trend since 1975 (Figure A4). Due to high rate of growth in Fall 2007, the forecast lies somewhat above this long-term trend line. Honolulu Community College: Headcount enrollment at Honolulu Community College declined 2.8% in Fall 2007 to just over 4,000 students (Table B2 & Figure B1). Enrollment has declined five out of the last six years and is down 13.4% since Fall Mobilization of military forces based on O ahu may contribute to continued mild decline in enrollment in the immediate future. Overall, the long-term trend has been mildly downward since 1976 (Figure B4). Due to the recent declines, the projection lies somewhat below the long-term trend line. The reader should note that the headcount enrollment forecast shown here does not include the apprenticeship non-credit vocational education programs, which account for over 3,000 students per fall semester and to which Honolulu CC devotes considerable resources. Kapi>olani Community College: Headcount enrollment at Kapi'olani Community College increased 3.4% in Fall 2007 to measure 7,517 students (Table C2 & Figure C1). First-time and transfer enrollment have increased substantially since Fall 2004, while returning enrollment has been on an upward trend since Fall However, although enrollment has fluctuated in recent years, the overall enrollment level has not changed very much since the mid-1990s. In the near future, Kapi olani CC may benefit from tuition rates lower than the UH four-year campuses, as well as programs, such as Degree Pathways, that allow students to dual enroll or defer enrollment at UH Mānoa while completing lower division course work at Kapi olani Community College. The enrollment forecast calls for a 1.8% increase in Fall 2008, to 7,650 students, with growth at an average annual rate of 0.8% through Fall At this rate of growth, headcount would near 8,000 by Fall Overall, headcount enrollment shows a reasonably strong upward trend since Fall 1975 (Figure C4). The forecast lies somewhat below this long-term trend line. Kaua>i Community College: After increasing 5.7% in Fall 2006, headcount enrollment at Kaua'i Community College declined 6.1% in Fall 2007 to measure 1,051 students (Table D2 & Figure D1). Following Hurricane Iniki, which struck the island in 1992, enrollment declined 33% through Fall 2000, when enrollment measured 1,052. The long-term trend since Fall 1975 is very slightly declining, with enrollment averaging 1,240 students (Figure D4). First-time and transfer student enrollment are expected to remain flat, with returning and continuing enrollment showing slight growth. Primarily on the strength of the recent growth trend in returning enrollment, which has increased 38.5% since Fall 2004, headcount enrollment has been forecast to increase mildly through Fall 2009, and then to remain stable at around 1,100 student through Fall This enrollment forecast lies somewhat below the long-term trend line.

6 Leeward Community College: Headcount enrollment at Leeward Community College increased 2.5% in Fall 2007, to measure 5,887 students (Table E2 & Figure E1). Enrollment has been up and down over the last several decades, but overall has changed little since the mid-1970s (Figure E4). The long-term trend line is very slightly declining. Due to the enrollment increase measured since Fall 2005, the forecast calls for 1.4% growth in headcount enrollment in Fall 2008, to measure 5,971 students, with enrollment leveling out at just over 6,000 students by Fall Some decline toward the end of the forecast period is due to softness in the high school senior forecast from the Hawai i Department of Education. (Note that the enrollment forecast does not include the potential impact of the planned expansion of the UH-West O ahu campus.) Maui Community College: Headcount enrollment at Maui Community College increased 4.9% in Fall 2007 to measure 2,981 students (Table F2 & Figure F1). Of all the UH Community College campuses, Maui CC shows the most pronounced long-term growth trend in enrollment (Figure F4). Population increase and economic growth on the island of Maui may continue to support moderate enrollment increase. Primarily on the basis of strong growth in transfers, which has more than doubled since Fall 2002, enrollment has been forecast to increase 1.0% in Fall 2008, to just over 3,000, and to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2% through Fall The forecast lies somewhat below, but parallel to, the long-term trend line. Windward Community College: Headcount enrollment at Windward Community College increased 2.4% in Fall 2007 to measure 1,824 students (Table G2 & Figure G1). From 2000 to Fall 2003, enrollment increased 29%, reaching an all-time high of 1,873 in Fall 2003 before declining the next two years. Since Fall 2005, enrollment has increased 6.5%. Prior to Fall 2002, enrollment had been stable for more than 20 years at around 1,550 students (Figure G4). The long-term trend measured since Fall 1975 is mildly upward. On the strength of these recent increases, enrollment has been forecast to grow 1.8% in Fall 2008, to measure 1,856 students, and to remain stable through Fall 2014 near this number. The forecast lies slightly above the long-term trend line.

7 University of Hawai i Community Colleges Credit Students 30 Thousands Figure 1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Fall 2007 = 100 Figure 2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected

8 University of Hawai i Community Colleges Credit Students 35 Thousands Figure 3 Enrollment Projection with Error Boundaries 30 Upper Bound Historical Lower Bound Projected Thousands Figure 4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Trend

9 TABLE 1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 REGISTRATION STATUS HISTORICAL PROJECTED AND PROGRAM AREA UH Community College Total... 24,809 25,593 26,344 25,898 25,233 25,260 25,890 26,245 26,524 26,624 26,754 26,865 26,911 26,871 Liberal Arts... 13,675 14,446 13,705 12,603 12,116 11,813 12,008 12,163 12,269 12,293 12,336 12,384 12,387 12,349 Career & Technical Ed... 8,446 8,167 7,557 7,532 7,268 7,267 7,393 7,493 7,575 7,609 7,641 7,672 7,690 7,688 Unclassified... 2,688 2,980 2,241 2,437 2,455 2,667 2,629 2,695 2,739 2,745 2,772 2,783 2,794 2,792 Home-Based at Other UH 1/... 2,841 3,326 3,394 3,513 3,860 3,894 3,941 3,977 4,005 4,026 4,040 4,042 First-Time By HS Background 2/.. 5,661 5,602 5,276 5,110 5,449 5,469 5,713 5,826 5,843 5,725 5,733 5,723 5,660 5,574 Direct from HI Public HS... 2,338 2,448 2,386 2,414 2,509 2,589 2,808 2,861 2,885 2,742 2,748 2,746 2,676 2,584 Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 3/... 2,037 2,020 1,883 1,825 1,846 1,913 1,905 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 First-Time, By Program... 5,661 5,602 5,276 5,110 5,449 5,469 5,713 5,826 5,843 5,725 5,733 5,723 5,660 5,574 Liberal Arts... 3,128 3,288 3,166 2,795 2,881 2,830 3,070 3,112 3,111 3,051 3,055 3,058 3,014 2,962 Career & Technical Ed... 1,771 1,543 1,441 1,520 1,452 1,496 1,517 1,569 1,577 1,546 1,545 1,539 1,529 1,510 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH Transfer... 3,484 3,758 2,758 2,281 4,079 3,808 3,925 3,956 3,990 4,028 4,064 4,092 4,118 4,121 Liberal Arts... 1,912 2,039 1,540 1,180 1,420 1,319 1,319 1,364 1,377 1,391 1,404 1,414 1,425 1,427 Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH ,288 1,321 1,475 1,423 1,433 1,445 1,455 1,462 1,469 1,470 Returning... 2,276 2,303 2,152 2,024 2,344 2,006 2,265 2,291 2,316 2,342 2,367 2,392 2,412 2,432 Liberal Arts... 1,247 1,279 1,212 1,062 1,196 1,042 1,181 1,200 1,212 1,225 1,237 1,249 1,260 1,271 Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH

10 TABLE 1 (cont.) REGISTRATION STATUS HISTORICAL PROJECTED AND PROGRAM AREA Continuing... 13,388 13,930 16,158 16,483 13,361 13,977 13,987 14,172 14,375 14,529 14,590 14,658 14,721 14,744 Liberal Arts... 7,388 7,840 7,787 7,566 6,619 6,622 6,438 6,487 6,569 6,626 6,640 6,663 6,688 6,689 Career & Technical Ed... 5,183 5,106 4,814 4,746 4,127 4,473 4,526 4,524 4,583 4,632 4,653 4,674 4,693 4,705 Unclassified ,025 1,049 1,070 1,078 1,090 1,098 1,102 Home-Based at Other UH... 2,597 3,235 1,807 1,909 2,036 2,136 2,174 2,201 2,219 2,231 2,242 2,248 1/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not the campus at which registered for classes. Data first available in Fall / Breakouts for Fall 2002 to Fall 2004 have been adjusted with information taken from Datamart; therefore, counts may not tie to those reported elsewhere. 3/ Includes GED, students from Hawai i who are not recent high school graduates and records with invalid high school code.

11 TABLE 2 ENROLLMENT INDEX: HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 (FALL 2007 = 100) HISTORICAL PROJECTED CAMPUS UH COMMUNITY COLLEGES HAWAI I CC HONOLULU CC KAPI OLANI CC KAUA I CC LEEWARD CC MAUI CC WINDWARD CC

12 TABLE 3 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY CAMPUS AND REGISTRATION STATUS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS UHCC TOTAL... 24,809 25,593 26,344 25,898 25,233 25,260 25,890 26,245 26,524 26,624 26,754 26,865 26,911 26,871 First Time... 5,661 5,602 5,276 5,110 5,449 5,469 5,713 5,826 5,843 5,725 5,733 5,723 5,660 5,574 Transfer... 3,484 3,758 2,758 2,281 4,079 3,808 3,925 3,956 3,990 4,028 4,064 4,092 4,118 4,121 Returning... 2,276 2,303 2,152 2,024 2,344 2,006 2,265 2,291 2,316 2,342 2,367 2,392 2,412 2,432 Continuing... 13,388 13,930 16,158 16,483 13,361 13,977 13,987 14,172 14,375 14,529 14,590 14,658 14,721 14,744 HAWAI I CC... 2,075 2,182 2,346 2,440 2,377 2,358 2,603 2,681 2,732 2,760 2,776 2,782 2,792 2,800 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,109 1,179 1,262 1,341 1,255 1,146 1,271 1,321 1,360 1,386 1,400 1,407 1,411 1,416 HONOLULU CC... 4,653 4,478 4,238 4,336 4,183 4,143 4,027 4,002 3,990 3,975 3,966 3,964 3,953 3,926 First Time Transfer , Returning Continuing... 2,811 2,580 2,741 2,729 1,784 2,223 2,179 2,137 2,128 2,123 2,116 2,110 2,110 2,103 KAPI OLANI CC... 7,081 7,041 7,491 7,174 7,289 7,272 7,517 7,650 7,762 7,821 7,879 7,935 7,961 7,970 First Time... 1,298 1,199 1, ,181 1,220 1,336 1,363 1,375 1,345 1,345 1,351 1,328 1,307 Transfer... 1,382 1, Returning Continuing... 3,867 4,004 4,883 5,023 4,430 4,432 4,504 4,588 4,666 4,732 4,768 4,803 4,837 4,852 KAUA I CC... 1,185 1,224 1,210 1,117 1,059 1,119 1,051 1,073 1,104 1,090 1,100 1,100 1,096 1,102 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing

13 TABLE 3 (cont.) CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS LEEWARD CC... 5,562 5,918 6,201 6,060 5,709 5,746 5,887 5,971 5,997 6,017 6,017 6,018 6,017 5,974 First Time... 1,270 1,370 1,382 1,333 1,298 1,331 1,466 1,479 1,456 1,459 1,445 1,442 1,438 1,393 Transfer Returning Continuing... 2,989 3,239 3,776 3,848 3,162 3,197 3,145 3,222 3,268 3,282 3,293 3,294 3,294 3,293 MAUI CC... 2,699 2,989 2,985 2,996 2,903 2,841 2,981 3,012 3,077 3,102 3,152 3,179 3,217 3,234 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,295 1,464 1,733 1,796 1,326 1,505 1,495 1,492 1,516 1,551 1,565 1,590 1,604 1,623 WINDWARD CC... 1,554 1,761 1,873 1,775 1,713 1,781 1,824 1,856 1,862 1,859 1,864 1,887 1,875 1,865 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing ,092 1, Note: Continuing includes records with invalid data on registration status.

14 TABLE 4 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY CAMPUS AND PROGRAM AREA UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED PROGRAM AREA UHCC TOTAL... 24,809 25,593 26,344 25,898 25,233 25,260 25,890 26,245 26,524 26,624 26,754 26,865 26,911 26,871 Liberal Arts... 13,675 14,446 13,705 12,603 12,116 11,813 12,008 12,163 12,269 12,293 12,336 12,384 12,387 12,349 Career & Technical Ed... 8,446 8,167 7,557 7,532 7,268 7,267 7,393 7,493 7,575 7,609 7,641 7,672 7,690 7,688 Unclassified... 2,688 2,980 2,241 2,437 2,455 2,667 2,629 2,695 2,739 2,745 2,772 2,783 2,794 2,792 Home-Based at Other UH 1/ 2,841 3,326 3,394 3,513 3,860 3,894 3,941 3,977 4,005 4,026 4,040 4,042 HAWAI I CC... 2,075 2,182 2,346 2,440 2,377 2,358 2,603 2,681 2,732 2,760 2,776 2,782 2,792 2,800 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,137 1,210 1,261 1,298 1,262 1,243 1,337 1,376 1,403 1,419 1,426 1,430 1,435 1,440 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH HONOLULU CC... 4,653 4,478 4,238 4,336 4,183 4,143 4,027 4,002 3,990 3,975 3,966 3,964 3,953 3,926 Liberal Arts... 1,657 1,535 1,157 1,114 1,075 1,025 1,017 1,020 1,021 1,018 1,017 1,017 1,013 1,006 Career & Technical Ed... 2,681 2,606 2,297 2,292 2,250 2,314 2,183 2,186 2,186 2,181 2,176 2,176 2,170 2,154 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH KAPI OLANI CC... 7,081 7,041 7,491 7,174 7,289 7,272 7,517 7,650 7,762 7,821 7,879 7,935 7,961 7,970 Liberal Arts... 4,343 4,325 4,156 3,549 3,516 3,321 3,236 3,250 3,275 3,282 3,294 3,311 3,315 3,313 Career & Technical Ed... 2,068 1,901 1,720 1,692 1,551 1,584 1,630 1,640 1,654 1,662 1,672 1,683 1,691 1,696 Unclassified ,069 1,177 1,220 1,250 1,266 1,281 1,294 1,300 1,302 Home-Based at Other UH ,134 1,284 1,298 1,474 1,540 1,583 1,611 1,632 1,647 1,655 1,659 KAUA I CC... 1,185 1,224 1,210 1,117 1,059 1,119 1,051 1,073 1,104 1,090 1,100 1,100 1,096 1,102 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH LEEWARD CC... 5,562 5,918 6,201 6,060 5,709 5,746 5,887 5,971 5,997 6,017 6,017 6,018 6,017 5,974 Liberal Arts... 3,958 4,312 4,203 3,936 3,736 3,639 3,724 3,786 3,806 3,822 3,823 3,824 3,824 3,794 Career & Technical Ed... 1,112 1, Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH

15 TABLE 4 (cont.) CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED PROGRAM AREA MAUI CC... 2,699 2,989 2,985 2,996 2,903 2,841 2,981 3,012 3,077 3,102 3,152 3,179 3,217 3,234 Liberal Arts ,291 1,258 1,195 1,183 1,150 1,288 1,309 1,336 1,345 1,364 1,374 1,389 1,396 Career & Technical Ed... 1,064 1, ,034 1,060 1,089 1,103 1,121 1,133 1,147 1,155 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH WINDWARD CC... 1,554 1,761 1,873 1,775 1,713 1,781 1,824 1,856 1,862 1,859 1,864 1,887 1,875 1,865 Liberal Arts... 1,336 1,526 1,499 1,421 1,338 1,410 1,443 1,462 1,463 1,457 1,459 1,478 1,465 1,454 Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH / Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not the campus at which registered for classes. Data first available in Fall 2003.

16 TABLE 5 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY ATTENDANCE STATUS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED ATTENDANCE STATUS UHCC TOTAL... 25,890 26,245 26,524 26,624 26,754 26,865 26,911 26,871 Full-time... 10,264 10,441 10,552 10,593 10,643 10,688 10,706 10,689 Part-time... 15,626 15,804 15,972 16,031 16,111 16,177 16,205 16,182 HAWAI I CC... 2,603 2,681 2,732 2,760 2,776 2,782 2,792 2,800 Full-time... 1,179 1,221 1,244 1,257 1,264 1,267 1,271 1,275 Part-time... 1,424 1,460 1,488 1,503 1,512 1,515 1,521 1,525 HONOLULU CC... 4,027 4,002 3,990 3,975 3,966 3,964 3,953 3,926 Full-time... 1,475 1,454 1,449 1,444 1,440 1,440 1,436 1,426 Part-time... 2,552 2,548 2,541 2,531 2,526 2,524 2,517 2,500 KAPI OLANI CC... 7,517 7,650 7,762 7,821 7,879 7,935 7,961 7,970 Full-time... 2,788 2,864 2,905 2,928 2,949 2,970 2,980 2,983 Part-time... 4,729 4,786 4,857 4,893 4,930 4,965 4,981 4,987 KAUA I CC... 1,051 1,073 1,104 1,090 1,100 1,100 1,096 1,102 Full-time Part-time LEEWARD CC... 5,887 5,971 5,997 6,017 6,017 6,018 6,017 5,974 Full-time... 2,556 2,562 2,574 2,582 2,582 2,583 2,582 2,564 Part-time... 3,331 3,409 3,423 3,435 3,435 3,435 3,435 3,410 MAUI CC... 2,981 3,012 3,077 3,102 3,152 3,179 3,217 3,234 Full-time... 1,145 1,171 1,196 1,206 1,226 1,236 1,251 1,257 Part-time... 1,836 1,841 1,881 1,896 1,926 1,943 1,966 1,977 WINDWARD CC... 1,824 1,856 1,862 1,859 1,864 1,887 1,875 1,865 Full-time Part-time... 1,096 1,106 1,109 1,108 1,111 1,124 1,117 1,111 Note: Part-Time includes records with invalid data on attendance status.

17 APPENDIX A HAWAI I PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS, BY SCHOOL DISTRICT ACADEMIC YEARS TO HISTORICAL 1/ PROJECTED 2/ SCHOOL DISTRICT TOTAL... 9,232 9,457 9,052 9,197 9,362 9,472 9,289 9,819 9,870 9,625 9,714 9,710 9,548 9,186 O'ahu Districts... 5,860 6,012 5,695 5,815 5,883 6,189 6,033 6,370 6,210 6,155 6,112 6,229 5,960 5,706 Honolulu District... 1,743 1,791 1,642 1,600 1,661 1,689 1,656 1,664 1,707 1,571 1,564 1,616 1,540 1,484 Central District... 1,596 1,714 1,664 1,611 1,643 1,715 1,746 1,699 1,660 1,717 1,780 1,791 1,745 1,622 Leeward District... 1,502 1,519 1,455 1,683 1,716 1,852 1,833 2,157 2,053 2,141 2,021 1,984 2,006 1,913 Windward District... 1, Neighbor Island Districts... 3,372 3,323 3,227 3,207 3,314 3,107 3,073 3,225 3,393 3,165 3,282 3,056 3,008 3,179 Hawai i District... 1,589 1,538 1,529 1,514 1,527 1,442 1,416 1,474 1,502 1,492 1,468 1,357 1,320 1,470 Maui District... 1,186 1,174 1,159 1,111 1,173 1,048 1,112 1,159 1,223 1,123 1,204 1,113 1,128 1,114 Kaua i District Other Schools Charter Schools 3/ / Department of Education for the State of Hawai i. Regular Education seniors only. 2/ Department of Education, "Statewide Enrollment Projections, to ," May / Includes all districts.

18 APPENDIX B HAWAI I HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES WICHE HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED SERIES Academic Total Pct Public Pct Private Pct Year Chnge Chnge Chnge ,520 9,160 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Note: Horizontal line delimits actual from projected numbers. Note: WICHE "Historical" data may differ from UH IRO compiled data shown in the MAPS reports on the High School Background of First-Time Students. SOURCE: "Knocking at the Door, Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022," March 2008, WICHE.

19 Hawai i Community College Credit Students 3.5 Thousands Figure A1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Fall 2007 = 100 Figure A2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected

20 Hawai i Community College Credit Students 4 Thousands Figure A3 Enrollment Projection with Error Boundaries Upper Bound 3 2 Lower Bound Historical Projected Thousands Figure A4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Trend

21 TABLE A1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS TOTAL... 2,075 2,182 2,346 2,440 2,377 2,358 2,603 2,681 2,732 2,760 2,776 2,782 2,792 2,800 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,137 1,210 1,261 1,298 1,262 1,243 1,337 1,376 1,403 1,419 1,426 1,430 1,435 1,440 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ First-Time By HS Background 2/ Direct from HI Public HS Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 3/ First-Time, By Program Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Transfer Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Returning Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/

22 TABLE A1 (cont.) HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS Continuing... 1,109 1,179 1,262 1,341 1,255 1,146 1,271 1,321 1,360 1,386 1,400 1,407 1,411 1,416 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ / Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Hawai i Community College. 2/ Breakouts for Fall 2002 to Fall 2004 have been adjusted with information taken from Datamart; therefore, counts may not tie to those reported elsewhere. 3/ Includes GED, students from Hawai i who are not recent high school graduates and records with invalid high school code.

23 TABLE A2 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT, BY PROGRAM HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total Students... 2,603 2,681 2,732 2,760 2,776 2,782 2,792 2,800 General & Pre Prof Ed Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,337 1,376 1,403 1,419 1,426 1,430 1,435 1,440 Business Food Services Health Services Public Services Technology Unclassified Regular Unclassified 1/ Home-Based Other UH 2/ Special Students Early Admit / Includes records with invalid data on education level. 2/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Hawai i Community College.

24 TABLE A3 STUDENT SEMESTER HOURS OFFERED, BY PROGRAM HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 23,974 24,671 25,132 25,397 25,540 25,595 25,686 25,759 General Education... 15,525 15,996 16,281 16,446 16,541 16,569 16,632 16,676 Humanities... 8,790 9,058 9,218 9,310 9,367 9,382 9,417 9,441 Natural Sciences... 4,227 4,351 4,429 4,475 4,500 4,510 4,526 4,540 Social Sciences... 2,243 2,307 2,349 2,374 2,386 2,391 2,400 2,406 Other General Education Career & Technical Ed... 8,449 8,675 8,851 8,951 8,999 9,026 9,054 9,083 Business... 2,188 2,246 2,292 2,318 2,334 2,330 2,338 2,353 Food Services Health Services ,000 Public Services... 1,510 1,544 1,575 1,591 1,603 1,608 1,614 1,615 Technology... 2,993 3,078 3,139 3,176 3,191 3,203 3,215 3,221 TABLE A4 FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT COURSE ENROLLMENT SERVED, BY PROGRAM HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 1,601 1,646 1,676 1,694 1,703 1,706 1,713 1,718 General Education... 1,035 1,067 1,086 1,096 1,102 1,104 1,109 1,111 Humanities Natural Sciences Social Sciences Other General Education Career & Technical Ed Business Food Services Health Services Public Services Technology

25 Honolulu Community College Credit Students 6 Thousands Figure B1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Fall 2007 = 100 Figure B2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected

26 Honolulu Community College Credit Students 6 Thousands Figure B3 Enrollment Projection with Error Boundaries 5 Upper Bound Historical Lower Bound Projected Thousands Figure B4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Trend

27 TABLE B1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS TOTAL... 4,653 4,478 4,238 4,336 4,183 4,143 4,027 4,002 3,990 3,975 3,966 3,964 3,953 3,926 Liberal Arts... 1,657 1,535 1,157 1,114 1,075 1,025 1,017 1,020 1,021 1,018 1,017 1,017 1,013 1,006 Career & Technical Ed... 2,681 2,606 2,297 2,292 2,250 2,314 2,183 2,186 2,186 2,181 2,176 2,176 2,170 2,154 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ First-Time By HS Background 2/ Direct from HI Public HS Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 3/ First-Time, By Program Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Transfer , Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Returning Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/

28 TABLE B1 (cont.) HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS Continuing... 2,811 2,580 2,741 2,729 1,784 2,223 2,179 2,137 2,128 2,123 2,116 2,110 2,110 2,103 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,737 1,720 1,466 1,375 1,034 1,394 1,348 1,312 1,314 1,314 1,311 1,308 1,308 1,304 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ / Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Honolulu Community College. 2/ Breakouts for Fall 2002 to Fall 2004 have been adjusted with information taken from Datamart; therefore, counts may not tie to those reported elsewhere. 3/ Includes GED, students from Hawai i who are not recent high school graduates and records with invalid high school code.

29 TABLE B2 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT, BY PROGRAM HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total Students... 4,027 4,002 3,990 3,975 3,966 3,964 3,953 3,926 General & Pre-Prof Ed... 1,017 1,020 1,021 1,018 1,017 1,017 1,013 1,006 Liberal Arts... 1,017 1,020 1,021 1,018 1,017 1,017 1,013 1,006 Career & Technical Ed... 2,183 2,186 2,186 2,181 2,176 2,176 2,170 2,154 Public Services Technology... 1,544 1,546 1,546 1,543 1,539 1,539 1,535 1,523 Unclassified Regular Unclassified 1/ Home-Based Other UH 2/ Special Students Early Admit / Includes records with invalid data on education level. 2/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Honolulu Community College.

30 TABLE B3 STUDENT SEMESTER HOURS OFFERED, BY PROGRAM HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 34,307 34,206 34,147 34,041 33,969 33,960 33,864 33,624 General Education... 20,184 20,088 20,039 19,966 19,928 19,919 19,860 19,724 Humanities... 9,068 9,034 9,016 8,984 8,967 8,964 8,937 8,875 Natural Sciences... 7,539 7,499 7,480 7,453 7,437 7,434 7,412 7,362 Social Sciences... 3,313 3,293 3,282 3,268 3,263 3,261 3,251 3,230 Other General Education Career & Technical Ed... 14,123 14,118 14,108 14,075 14,041 14,041 14,004 13,900 Business... 1,351 1,349 1,348 1,344 1,340 1,340 1,336 1,327 Health Services Public Services... 3,443 3,439 3,435 3,423 3,417 3,417 3,407 3,386 Technology... 8,302 8,304 8,300 8,284 8,262 8,262 8,241 8,176 Other Vocational TABLE B4 FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT COURSE ENROLLMENT SERVED, BY PROGRAM HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2007 TO FALL 2014 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 2,288 2,280 2,276 2,269 2,265 2,264 2,257 2,242 General Education... 1,347 1,339 1,336 1,331 1,329 1,328 1,324 1,315 Humanities Natural Sciences Social Sciences Other General Education Career & Technical Ed Business Health Services Public Services Technology Other Vocational

31 Kapi olani Community College Credit Students 9 Thousands Figure C1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Fall 2007 = 100 Figure C2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected

32 Kapi olani Community College Credit Students 10 Thousands Figure C3 Enrollment Projection with Error Boundaries 9 8 Historical Upper Bound 7 Lower Bound 6 5 Projected Thousands Figure C4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Projected Trend

33 TABLE C1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS KAPI OLANI COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2001 TO FALL 2014 HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS TOTAL... 7,081 7,041 7,491 7,174 7,289 7,272 7,517 7,650 7,762 7,821 7,879 7,935 7,961 7,970 Liberal Arts... 4,343 4,325 4,156 3,549 3,516 3,321 3,236 3,250 3,275 3,282 3,294 3,311 3,315 3,313 Career & Technical Ed... 2,068 1,901 1,720 1,692 1,551 1,584 1,630 1,640 1,654 1,662 1,672 1,683 1,691 1,696 Unclassified ,069 1,177 1,220 1,250 1,266 1,281 1,294 1,300 1,302 Home-Based Other UH 1/ 997 1,134 1,284 1,298 1,474 1,540 1,583 1,611 1,632 1,647 1,655 1,659 First-Time By HS Background 2/. 1,298 1,199 1, ,181 1,220 1,336 1,363 1,375 1,345 1,345 1,351 1,328 1,307 Direct from HI Public HS Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 3/ First-Time, By Program... 1,298 1,199 1, ,181 1,220 1,336 1,363 1,375 1,345 1,345 1,351 1,328 1,307 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based Other UH 1/ Transfer... 1,382 1, Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based Other UH 1/ Returning Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based Other UH 1/