A Tale of Three Cities: The Demographic and Economic Context for Workforce Development

Transcription

1 A Tale of Three Cities: The Demographic and Economic Context for Workforce Development A Grassroots Look at Workforce Development February 28, 2012 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Overview Map and 2010 Population Source: 2010 Census of Population. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

3 50% Population Trends Since % Mercer Co. 30% 20% 10% New Jersey Co. 0% -10% -20% -30% Essex Co. Trenton Newark -40% Source: Census of Population. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau. 3

4 Population by Race/Ethnicity (2010)* White (not Latino) African American (not Latino) Latino (any race) Other (not Latino) 10% 18% 13% 4% 47% 8% 5% 8% 14% 34% 9% 13% 34% 3% 34% 13% 9% 10% 59% 44% 70% 50% 45% 50% 67% 5% 12% 13% New Jersey Co. *May not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Source: 2010 Census of Population. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. 4

5 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation

6 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% Unemployment Rate NJ Co Newark Essex Co Trenton Mercer Co 18.6% 15.0% 12.8% 10% 8% 6% 9.6% 9.3% 6.6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,

7 Unemployment Rate by Age ( ) years years 35 years and over 32% 28% 23% 17% 19% 14% 13% 13% 11% 13% 8% 6% New Jersey Newark Trenton Source: American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

8 Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity ( )* African American Latino (any race) White (not Latino) 22% 18% 19% 19% 13% 11% 11% 9% 7% 8% 7% 9% New Jersey Newark Trenton *For those age Source: American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

9 Labor Force Participation ( )* Employed (incl. armed forces) Unemployed Not in labor force 23% 6% 37% 20% 6% 32% 22% 7% 30% 23% 5% 10% 10% 12% 71% 50% 74% 58% 71% 60% 71% New Jersey Co. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. *For those age May not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Source: American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

10 Education and Income

11 Educational Attainment (2010)* Less than high school diploma High school diploma Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher 8% 14% 12% 35% 23% 31% 21% 41% 24% 46% 23% 36% 26% 35% 23% 39% 21% 29% 32% 31% 31% 25% 26% 24% 12% 11% 10% 9% New Jersey Co. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. *For those age 25 and over. May not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Source: 2010 American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

12 25-34 Year Olds with No High School Diploma or Equivalent ( ) 33% 31% 24% 10% 7% 7% 6% New Jersey Co. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. Source: American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

13 School District Statistics (2011) US NJ Students 49,292,507 1,382,348 Race/Ethnicity* White (not Latino) 56% 55% African American (not Latino) 17% 17% Latino (any race) 21% 19% Other 6% 8% Eligible for Free or Reduced Price Meals 41% 28% Graduation Rate, Class of '08 72% 87% (#1) Newark Trenton 13,102 40,507 11,449 1% 8% 3% 52% 58% 62% 46% 34% 35% 2% 1% 1% 81% 70% 65% 63% 84% 54% *May not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Source: 2011 School District Graduation Report. Prepared by the Editorial Projects in Education Research Center,

14 Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment ( )* 21% Less than high school diploma High school diploma Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher 12% 15% 13% 14% 14% 10% 16% 13% 12% 8% 7% 8% 6% 6% 4% New Jersey Newark Trenton *For those age Source: American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

15 Median Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment in the U.S.* Median Weekly Earnings Inflation- Adjusted Growth** Implied 2011 Annual Earnings*** Less than a high school diploma $382 $451-7% $23,452 High school graduate, no college $520 $638-3% $33,176 Some college or associate s degree $617 $739-6% $38,428 Bachelor's degree or higher $921 $1,150-2% $59,800 All full-time workers $630 $797 0% $41,444 *For full-time workers 25 years and over. **Inflation is estimated at 27 percent between 2001 and 2011, according to the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ***2011 weekly earnings multiplied by 52. Source: Current Population Survey. Prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,

16 Average Household Income (2010) $108,503 $90,882 $98,157 $79,384 $42,472 $43,955 $48,972 New Jersey Co. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. Source: 2010 American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

17 Population Below the Poverty Line (2010) 36% 30% 29% 10% 8% 10% 7% New Jersey Co. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. Source: 2010 American Community Survey. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

18 Housing Tenure, Vacancy, and Value

19 Vacancy & Homeownership Rates (2010) 73% Vacancy rate 73% 65% Homeownership rate 57% 39% 38% 22% 10% 14% 6% 14% 7% 13% 5% New Jersey Co. Newark Essex Co. Trenton Mercer Co. Source: 2010 Census of Population. Prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau,

20 10% Average Home Sales Price ( ) 0% -10% Mercer Co. Essex Co. Co. -20% New Jersey -30% -40% -50% Trenton Newark -60% Source: Boxwood Means. Prepared by The Reinvestment Fund s PolicyMap,

21 National Employment Projections

22 Projected Employment Growth in U.S. ( ) Typical Education Needed for Entry Number of Occupations in Top 30 % of New Jobs in Top 30 Occupations* Median Salary (unweighted) Less than high school 10 42% $20,615 High school diploma or equivalent 13 36% $30,460 Postsecondary education 7 23% $51,660 Change, Occupations Expected to Add the Greatest Number of Jobs Number (000) Percent (%) Total, All Occupations 20,469 14% Registered Nurses % Retail Salespersons % Home Health Aides % Personal Care Aides % Office Clerks, General % Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food % Customer Service Representatives % Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers % Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand % Postsecondary Teachers % *May not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Source: Employment Projections: : Tables 1.4 and 1.7, modified. Prepared by the Employment Projections program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

23 Projected Job & Job Openings Growth by Educational Attainment ( ) Total Job Openings Due Job Growth to Growth and Replacement Needs Median Annual Typical Entry-Level Education Number (000) Percent Number (000) Percent Distribution Wage (2010) Total, all occupations 20,469 14% 54, % $33,840 Doctoral or professional degree % 1,702 3% $87,500 Master's degree % 904 2% $60,240 Bachelor's degree 3,656 17% 8,562 16% $63,430 Associate's degree 1,440 18% 2,941 5% $61,590 Postsecondary nondegree award 1,101 17% 2,390 4% $34,220 Some college, no degree % 362 1% $44,350 High school diploma or equivalent 7,576 12% 21,746 40% $34,180 Less than high school 5,246 14% 16,181 30% $20,070 Source: Employment Projections: : Employment by summary education and training assignment, 2010 and projected Prepared by the Employment Projections program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,

24 (Billions) $9.5 $9.0 Federal Funds for Employment Training, Adult Education, and Related Activities (in 2011 dollars)* $9.2 $8.5 $8.0 $7.5 $7.0 $6.5 $6.8 $ ** Fiscal Year *Includes the U.S. Department of Labor s Training and Employment Services discretionary programs, as well as Job Corps, the Senior Community Service Employment Program, and the TAA Community College and Career Training Grant Fund; also includes the U.S. Department of Education s career and technical education state grants and adult education programs. **Requested. NOTE: Fiscal year 2003 through 2010 appropriations are converted to 2011 dollars using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers from calendar years 2003 through Fiscal year 2012 appropriations and the 2013 request are converted to 2011 dollars assuming inflation of 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively, for calendar years 2012 and 2013 as projected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia s Survey of Professional Forecasters: First Quarter Fiscal year 2011 appropriations are unadjusted. Source: Summary of Discretionary Funds, FY ; Summary of Discretionary Funds, ; and FY 2013 President s Budget, prepared by the U.S. Department of Labor. Education Department Budget History Table: FY 1980-FY 2012 President's Budget; and Fiscal Year 2013 President s Budget, prepared by the U.S. Department of Education. 24

25 Questions? Keith Wardrip Community Development Research Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Ten Independence Mall Philadelphia, PA (215)