USW Conference for Teachers & Advisers. Mary Curnock Cook, CEO, UCAS Thursday 26 January 2017

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1 USW Conference for Teachers & Advisers Mary Curnock Cook, CEO, UCAS Thursday 26 January 2017

2 1. Sector snapshot including trends for Wales 2. Lens on offer making

3 1. Sector snapshot including trends for Wales 2. Lens on offer making

4 Applicants, accepts and acceptance rates for UK 19 & unders: Applicants 369k 377k 390k 392k Accepts 309k 315k 329k 333k Acceptance rate 84% 84% 84% 85%

5 Entry rates for UK 18 year olds by country of domicile Increases in 18 year old entry rates of UK countries 35% in Northern Ireland 32.5% in England 29.5% in Wales 25% in Scotland Rounded to nearest 0.5 percent. Source: Figure 12 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

6 Cohort entry rates for UK 18 year olds (by age 19) by country of domicile 43% in NI 42.5% in E 37.5% in W 32% in S Rounded to nearest 0.5 percent. Source: Figure 14 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

7 Entry rates in 2006 and 2016 for UK 18 year olds by parliamentary constituency Source: Figures 17 and 18 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016, Ten years ago there were almost 200 constituencies where fewer than one in five 18 year olds went to HE. In 2016, only around 20 constituencies were in that category.

8 Entry rates in 2016 for UK 18 year olds by region and country. There are still large regional differences in entry rates for UK 18 year olds. Nearly 40% of those in London enter, compared with the lowest rates of 28% in the South West. Source: Figure 15 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

9 Cohort application and entry rates for UK 18 year olds (by age 19) by sex 52.8% 40.2% The slowing of the cohort entry increases was driven partly by a flattening of the rate for men. Source: Figure 47 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

10 Application and entry rates for UK 18 year olds by sex 36.8% 27.2% At age 18, women are now third more likely to enter higher education than men. 37k more men would need to be accepted to equalise this gap in entry rates. Source: Figure 45 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

11 Entry rates for English 18 year old state school pupils by sex, and by areas grouped using FSM status at aged 15. The gap between entry rates for men & women is now almost equal to the gap between most and least advantaged groups. In 2006 it was more like half the size of the rich/poor gap. Source: Figure 65 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

12 Entry rates for Welsh 18 year olds by provider country 29.5% of Welsh 18 year olds entered HE in 2016 vs. 25% in The growth has been driven by a 50% increase in entry rates to providers in England saw the largest increase in the proportion to Wales since 2009

13 Proportion of 18 year old Welsh & English border flow categories holding ABB+ 40% of Welsh > England 28% of English > Wales 20% of Welsh > Wales Welsh students going to HE in England are twice as likely to hold ABB+ than those remaining in Wales.

14 Proportion of 18 year old Welsh & English border flow categories holding BTECs 30% Welsh remaining in Wales are also more likely to hold BTECs than those going to HEPs in England, but the proportion dropped in % 20.4% of Welsh > Wales 14% of Welsh > England 10% 11.6% of English > Wales 0%

15 Change vs in number of placed 18 yo by provider Tariff Group; EOC. Growth in recruitment is strongest at Medium Tariff providers +6% (79k, +4.3k) at Medium Tariff +2% (79k, +1.4k) at Higher Tariff -3% (79k, -2.2k) at Lower Tariff

16 What s going on? Fewer 18 year olds in population KS4 accountability reduces BTECs and increases lower grade A levels Higher tariff universities reach bottom of appetite for A level grades (c. BBB) Medium tariff unis recruit lower grade A level students Lower tariff unis hit by fewer 18 year olds, fewer older applicants, fewer A levels and fewer BTECs.

17 Proportion of UK (excl. Scottish) 18 year old acceptances holding BTEC ABB+ qualifications by provider tariff group Proportion of 18 year olds BTEC ABB+ students has doubled between 2008 and 2016 The proportion at higher tariff increased off a small base, but the proportion at medium and lower have decreased for the first time.

18 English 18 year old acceptances holding BTECs provider tariff group BTEC students entering HE most commonly hold D*D*D* Source: Figure 76 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

19 UK 18 year old acceptance rates by qualifications held. A level only group hold highest acceptance rate BTEC only see highest proportional increase for the 5 th year running Difference in the acceptance rate between A level only and BTEC only decreased to 5.6 percentage points in 2016.

20 UK 18s mainscheme applicants placed by A level points (3+ pred. grades only) Whilst A level numbers are flat vs. 2015, ABB+ the longer term growth in numbers placed has been in those achieving grades between CCC & BBB. Position 28 days after A level results publication.

21 UK 18s mainscheme applicants placed at Higher Tariff HEPs by A level points (3+ pred. grades only). The number of UK 18s with A levels entering Higher Tariff providers has increased by 7.7k since Over 80% of this growth has come from those achieving grades below ABB+ ABB+ Day 28 after A level results

22 Proportion of English 18 year old applicants placed in Higher Tariff providers in England by A level grades. More likely to be placed at higher tariff in 2016 compared to 2011 More likely to be placed at a higher tariff provider as grades increase For example, 41% with BBB in 2016 placed in higher tariff compared with 19% in 2011 Position 28 days after A level results

23 Proportion of English 18 year old applicants placed in Medium Tariff providers in England by A level grades. In 2011, 30% of applicants holding CCC or equivalent from their top 3 A levels were placed at Medium Tariff providers. In 2016, 45% of them went to Medium Tariff. Position 28 days after A level results

24 A level achieved vs predicted: Placed UK 18 year olds who applied by 30 June deadline; split by difference between achieved and predicted A level points from best three A levels Around a third of UK 18 year olds placed with A levels dropped 3 or more grades across their top 3 A levels in Up from a quarter in 2012.

25 Proportion of placed English 18 year olds with A levels who are predicted/ attain ABB+ from top three grades. 65% predicted ABB+ in % achieved ABB+ in 2016, the gap between predicted and achieved is the largest recorded. Position 28 days after the publication of A level results. Applicants restricted to those applying by June 30 deadline

26 So What? There s never been a better time to apply Universities want to recruit More modest grades can secure a great place Lots of offers being made! Some discounts available at confirmation

27 1. Sector snapshot including trends for Wales 2. Lens on offer making

28 Proportion of all five-choice applicants receiving an offer by number of offers received (cumulative). Over half of applicants receive four or more offers and almost a third have five offers to choose between. Source: Figure 29 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

29 Offer rate (application level) to 18 year old UK main scheme applicants by country of provider Applications to Welsh providers most likely to get offer (84.4%) Offers from English providers increase to all time high to 78.3% Source: Figure 31 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

30 Offer rate (application level); Welsh HEPs to 18 year old main scheme applicants from England and Wales English and Welsh students have the same chance of receiving an offer from a provider in Wales. Offer rate to applicants from Wales was highest ever in 2016; 84.5% Source: Figure 33 from UCAS End of Cycle Report 2016,

31 Those five choices are important! 90% accepted at one of five choices What do they need to weigh up? Do I want to go there? Open days Will I get an offer? The five choices are life-defining 31

32 How do I know if I ll get an offer?

33 UCAS offer rate calculator Enables students to see their likelihood of receiving an offer from the university or course they re interested in applying to Purpose is to inspire students to apply to courses they may have previously not considered Beta version - focuses on A levels only Feedback will shape future development

34 How it works 1. Enter the student s A level subjects and predicted grades. 2. Enter the course provider and subject the student is interested in. 3. Results are returned identifying the percentage likelihood of receiving an offer.

35 Is it accurate? The calculator describes the decisions students have taken in the past very well overall

36 Remember This tool has been designed for use with students in a context with a teacher or adviser The calculator provides an estimate based on past applications Universities and colleges take much more than just grades into consideration 36

37 UCAS Digital Downloads

38 Questions? Mary Curnock Cook Chief Executive Officer

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