Piecing Together the Population Puzzle

Transcription

1 Piecing Together the Population Puzzle Richard Fry Senior Economist Pew Research Center

2 Richard Fry Senior Economist Pew Research Center 5

3 Outline The Demographics of Millennials The Human Capital of Millennials Well-being of Millennials The Mobility of Millennials 6

4 The Demographics of Millennials 7

5 The Generations Defined The Millennial Generation Born: After 1980 Age of adults in 2016: 18 to 35* Generation X Born: 1965 to 1980 Age in 2016: 36 to 51 The Late Baby Boom Generation Born: 1955 to 1964 Age in 2016: 52 to 61 The Early Baby Boom Generation Born: 1946 to 1954 Age in 2016: 62 to 70 The Silent Generation Born: 1928 to 1945 Age in 2016: 71 to 88 8

6 5 million Births Underlying Each Generation Number of U.S. births by year and generation Silent total births: 47 million Boomer 76m Gen X 55m Millennial 70m (post-millennial) 69m Note: Years shown are the start year for each respective generation. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services National Center for Health Statistics. 9

7 Millennials Outnumbered Boomers in 2015 Projected populations, in millions, 2014 to 2050 Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections released December

8 Millennials are Less White than Prior Generations Race and ethnicity of 18- to 35-year-olds (%) Other Asian Black Hispanic White Silents (1964) Early Boomers (1981) Late Boomers (1990) Gen Xers (2000) Millennials (2016) Note: Whites, blacks, Asians and others are single-race non-hispanic. Hispanics are of any race. Asians include Pacific Islanders. Due to data limitations, Asians are included in the other category in 1964 and Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 11

9 The Human Capital of Millennials 12

10 Millennials are Better Educated than Prior Generations Educational attainment of 25- to 35-year-olds (%) High school graduate Bachelor's degree or more Silents (1964) Early Boomers (1981) Late Boomers (1990) Gen Xers (2000) Millennials (2016) Note: High school refers to those who have attained a high school diploma or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 13

11 Median Annual Earnings of 25- to 35-Year-Olds Have Remained Flat Among full-time workers, in 2015 dollars $32,206 $35,615 $36,926 $38,421 $39,000 Silents (1964) Early Boomers (1981) Late Boomers (1990) Gen Xers (2000) Millennials (2016) Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 14

12 Earnings of Young Adults Have Increased for the College-Educated Median annual earnings among full-time workers ages 25 to 35, in 2015 dollars $44,673 Bachelor s+ $52,000 $36,985 Some college $34,000 $32,876 High school grad $30,000 Silents (1964) Early Boomers (1981) Late Boomers (1990) Gen Xers (2000) Millennials (2016) Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 15

13 Well-Being of Millennial Households 16

14 Typical Household Income of Millennials on Par with Earlier Generations Median adjusted household income for households headed by a 25- to 35-year-old, in 2015 dollars Millennials in 2016 $65,515 Gen Xers in 2000 $66,572 Late Boomers in 1990 $60,359 Early Boomers in 1981 $56,503 Silents in 1968 $43,554 Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 17

15 Millennial Households More Likely to be in Poverty than Earlier Generations % of households headed by a 25- to 35-year-old in poverty Millennials in Gen Xers in Late Boomers in Early Boomers in Silents in Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 18

16 The Wealth of Young Generations has been Modest at Start Median net worth of households with a head 32-years-old or younger, in 2015 dollars Millennials in 2013 $9,484 Gen Xers in 1998 $10,343 Boomers in 1983 $11,994 Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the Federal Reserve Board Survey of Consumer Finances public-use data. 19

17 Median Adjusted Household Income of Households Headed by 25- to 35-Year-Olds by Educational Attainment Millennials in 2016 In 2015 dollars High school graduate Some college Bachelor's degree or more Gen Xers in 2000 High school graduate Some college Bachelor's degree or more Late Boomers in 1990 High school graduate Some college Bachelor's degree or more $45,033 $56,831 $52,494 $64,206 $51,989 $64,989 $92,936 $100,952 $102,598 Early Boomers in 1981 High school graduate Some college Bachelor's degree or more Silents in 1968 High school graduate Some college Bachelor's degree or more $50,735 $59,410 $43,271 $50,208 $62,069 $77,083 Note: High school graduate refers to those who have attained a high school diploma or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate. Some college refers to those with an associate degree and those who attended college but did not earn a degree. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 20

18 Millennials Less Likely to Marry % of 25- to 35-year-olds ever married Millennials in Gen Xers in Late Boomers in Early Boomers in Silents in Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 21

19 Marriage Has Fallen the Most Among the Less-Educated % of 25- to 35-year-olds ever married High school School graduate Some college Bachelor s Bachelor's + degree or more Millennials in 2016 Gen Xers in 2000 Late Boomers in 1990 Early Boomers in 1981 Silents in Note: High school graduate refers to those who have attained a high school diploma or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate. Some college refers to those with an associate degree and those who attended college but did not earn a degree. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 22

20 Likelihood of Having a College Educated Spouse % of married 25- to 35-year-olds with a college-educated spouse High school graduate Bachelor's degree or more Silent Women in 1964 Millennial Women in Silent Men in Millennial Men in Note: High school graduate refers to those who have attained a high school diploma or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 23

21 The Mobility of Millennials 24

22 Millennials Job Tenure No Shorter than that of Prior Generation % of 18- to 35-year-old workers by length of employment with current employer 13 months or more Millennial in 2016 Gen X in years or more Millennial in 2016 Gen X in Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) Displaced Worker Supplements Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 25

23 Employee Tenure of College-Educated Young Adults has Increased % of 25- to 35-year-old workers by length of employment with current employer 13 months or more Millennial in 2016 Gen X in 2000 Millennial in 2016 Gen X in years or more Millennial in 2016 Gen X in 2000 Millennial in 2016 Gen X in 2000 Bachelor's degree or more High school graduate Bachelor's degree or more High school graduate Note: High school graduate refers to those who have attained a high school diploma or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) Displaced Worker Supplements Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 26

24 Millennials Less Likely to Move % of 25- to 35-year-olds who moved in the previous year Millennials in Gen Xers in Late Boomers in Early Boomers in Silents in Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 27

25 When They do Move Millennials are Less Likely to Buy % of 25- to 35-year-olds who were living in a home following their move Owner-occupied, not parent(s)' home Millennials in 2016 Gen Xers in 2000 Late Boomers in 1990 Early Boomers in Rental Millennials in 2016 Gen Xers in 2000 Late Boomers in 1990 Early Boomers in Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 28

26 Millennials are the Generation Most Likely to Live at Home % of 25- to 35-year-olds living in parent(s) home Millennials in Gen Xers in Late Boomers in Early Boomers in Silents in Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 29

27 Living at Home is a Longer-Term Arrangement for Millennials than Previous Generations Among 25- to 35-year-olds living in parent(s) home, % at same address one year earlier Millennials in Gen Xers in Late Boomers in Early Boomers in Silents in Source: Pew Research Center analysis of March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 30

28 Increase in Living in Parent(s) Home is Concentrated Among Less-Educated Young Adults % of 25- to 35-year-olds living in parent(s) home High School school graduate Some college Bachelor's Bachelor s + degree or more Millennials in 2016 Gen Xers in 2000 Late Boomers in 1990 Early Boomers in 1981 Silents in Note: High School graduate refers to those who have attained a high school diploma or its equivalent, such as a General Education Development (GED) certificate. Some college refers to those with an associate degree and those who attended college but did not earn a degree. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of March Current Population Survey (CPS) Integrated Public Use Microdata Series. 31

29 Q A 32