Investing in People for the 21 st Century

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1 Oc 8, 2009 T.W. Schulz Lecure Souh Dakoa Sae Universiy Ocober 6, 2009 Invesing in People for he 21 s Cenury By Wallace E. Huffman C.F. Curiss Disinguished Professor of Agriculure and Life Sciences and Professor of Economics Iowa Sae Universiy

2 I. Inroducion T.S. Schulz became famous for developing a new concep, called human capial, i.e., he idea ha invesing in people improves heir healh, skills and compeencies, knowledge or informaion base, and geographical locaion relaive o consumpion and work opporuniies. Because invesing in people is cosly, he argued ha he invesmen decisions are deliberae in ha he benefis are weighed agains he coss. Moreover, i is no a sory abou how innae abiliy, e.g., IQ, predeermines your economic lo in life. Furhermore, he argued ha we can apply he principles of invesmen heory developed for decision making on physical capial o human capial invesmens. Tha is, when an individual decides o obain an addiional year of schooling, he or she bears he coss of foregone earnings and direc oulays for uiion, books, supplies, and afer compleing he schooling, he or she expecs o obain high earnings for as long as he or she remains in he labor force. Wih a lile work, he rae of reurn on his invesmen can be compued and compared o raes of reurns on oher available invesmens. Good invesmen decision making requires ha he rae of reurn on educaion is greaer han or equal o ha on he bes alernaive uses of he funds (Schulz 1961a). This ambiious applicaion of economic hinking o invesmens made in people shocked some economiss, social scieniss, and ohers when he presened i in his Presidenial Address o he American Economics Associaion in S. Louis, Mo, December, For example, some people had difficuly in separaing he direc consumpion value and invesmen value of educaion (Schulz 1961b). However, Schulz had for almos wo decade been wresling wih he new idea of human capial. As a resul of pos-ww II ravels o Germany and Japan, he was able o see firs-hand a miraculous speed of recovery from widespread immediae devasaion a he end of he war. In conras, he Unied Kingdom ook a long ime o recover. He concluded ha he rapid recovery 2

3 was due o a healhy and highly educaed populaion in Germany and Japan relaive o he UK. Educaion makes people producive and good healhcare keeps he educaed individual able o engage in producive work more inensely and longer. These insighs were also useful new ideas abou he primary source of economic growh of counries and regions. Human Capial is now a well esablished par of economics. The widely used Journal of Economic Lieraure classificaion of opics in economics places human capial under he broad field of labor and demographic economics. However, is fruis also spillover o he fields of healh, educaion and welfare; economic developmen, echnical change and growh; agriculural, naural resource and environmenal economics; and urban, rural and regional economics. When Schulz was born (1902), he disribuion of he U.S. labor force across employmen secors was 36% in agriculure, 28% in indusry and 36% in services. In 1960 (he year ha Schulz gave his invesing in human capial address o he AEA) he shares had shifed dramaically only 9% in agriculure, 34% indusry and 57% in services. Hence, over his slighly more han half a cenury, he U.S. became a service economy by having a majoriy of employmen in he services secor. Currenly, he shares are 2% in agriculure, 17% in indusry, and 81% in services. Rapidly growing service secors have been in healh and educaion and professional and business secors. These srucural changes sugges ha he demand for he abiliy o do physical work has largely disappeared and he opporuniy o perform services, some of which are quie high skilled, have been growing rapidly. Over he pas decade, here has been a discussion of ousourcing manufacuring and more recenly business service jobs. However, a large share of our young people do no have he educaion needed o compee well in his labor marke of he 21 s Cenury; less han one-hird of hem have bachelors degrees. U.S. public universiies, which produce he bulk of hese degrees, are facing a financial crisis of heir own, sruggling o esablish a new ideniy in higher educaion. 3

4 The purpose of my paper is o show ha human capial heory and labor marke adjusmens have imporan implicaions for invesing in people for he 21 s Cenury. Secion wo idenifies major ypes of human capial, secion hree presens a model of he human capial invesmen decision, secion four reviews globalizaion and changing world labor marke, and secion five akes up he issue how much and who pays for a college educaion. The final secion presens some conclusions. II. Types of Human Capial The field of human capial has aken on a srong acquisiion of skills and informaion flavor. Alhough much of he early focus was on formal educaions (K-12, higher educaion and advanced educaion), he lis of opics have been expanded o include, pre-school aciviies, informal educaion or informaion acquisiion as in shor courses and seminars and informal sudy of wrien maerials and shopping, and learning while working on he job (on-he-job raining). For example, recen research by Heckman (2006) and Heckman and Maserov (2007) repor ha preschool aciviies of disadvanaged children help children develop social or non-cogniive skills ha have long erm payoff in laer school, social and labor marke performance, especially in disadvanaged children. Early discussions of invesing in healh focused upon public healh invesmens (mandaory vaccinaions for conagious diseases and reamen of waer and wase maerials) and he inpus of he medical services and pharmaceuicals. However, economiss were among he firs o hypohesize ha good healh is produced by he way ha we choose o live our daily lives, i.e, hrough long-erm choices made on die, exercise, moderae alcohol consumpion, and weigh and sress managemen, some imes refereed as healhy lifesyle choices. I is cosly for individuals and families o move from one place o anoher, or o migrae. I akes ime o plan a move, o physically pack up and move ones own and family possessions, and 4

5 in a new locaion, employmen, housing, grocery sores, schools, banks, and churches mus be locaed. Also, new friendships mus be esablished. However, i is widely recognized ha human migraion changes and frequenly provides benefis hrough improved educaion, employmen or/and consumpion opporuniies. Moreover, i is widely acceped ha educaion aids migraion. For example, wih he major shifs in he indusrial (and occupaional) disribuion of he U.S. labor force, rapid exi from farm o nonfarm jobs occurred in he s. More recenly, he shif has been from manufacuring o service secor jobs where added educaion faciliaes he move. Immigraion or inernaional migraion o he U.S. has been a par of our hisory since a 16 h Cenury. In paricular, he U.S. had relaively unresriced immigraion o 1920, when he naional origins immigraion ac was passed. I limied new immigran numbers o he counries ha had he larges share of he immigrans as deermined in he mos recen U.S. census of populaion. Hence, Wesern and Norhern Europeans were favored. However, in 1965, his legislaion was replaced by a family unificaion and refugee immigraion policy. Poenial immigrans who had family members who were U.S. ciizens were given prioriy. This has had he effec of aracing a relaively large number of low skilled individuals and parens of ciizens. Since 1970, U.S. immigrans have been heavily from Mexico and Cenral America and from Asia. III. The Human Capial Invesmen Decision Mos human capial invesmen decisions ake a similar srucure. However, o be precise, le s consider he decision of wheher o inves in a 4-year college degree raher han sopping wih a high school diploma or compleing secondary school. Le graduae in year (in consan dollars), II Y I Y = earnings of a high school = earnings while individual is enrolled in college, ne of coss of compleing a four-year or BA/BS college degree, and earnings afer graduaing from college (in consan dollars). See Figure 1. However, sudens while enrolled in a four-year 5

6 college degree program are assumed (for ease of exposiion) o have zero earnings. Thus, while a suden is enrolled in college, he or she foregoes he earnings of a high school graduae. This is one imporan par of he cos of obaining a four-year degree, see Figure 1, area C 1. Also, college sudens incur he direc coss of aending college: expendiures for uiion, books, fees, and any ne increase in housing, food, and clohing as a resul of being a college suden relaive o being an earner wih a high school diploma, see Figure 1, area C 2. These wo ypes of coss are combined ogeher o obain he oal cos of obaining a four-year college degree. In Figure 1, he earnings of a new college graduae is higher han for a high school graduae, and his difference is he ne annual benefi of obaining a college degree, see Figure 1, area B. Since a dollar nex year (5 or 40 years from now) are worh less o mos individuals han a dollar oday, we mus conver he educaion capial invesmen projec ino equivalen unis by discouning. Le r be he discoun rae (in consan dollars) appropriae for his educaion capial invesmen decision, e.g., he real rae of ineres ha he individual or household would encouner if hey were o obain a college educaion loan, he real rae of reurn foregone on a passbook savings accoun or socks or bonds if reurns from hese asses are used o self finance he invesmen. Consider he ne presen value of invesing a age 18 (NPV 18 ), he age a high school graduaion, and assume reiremen occurs a age 65: (1) NPV 18 = ( Y Y ) /(1 r ) II I = ( Y Y ) /(1 r ) II I + 65 ( Y Y ) /(1 r ) = -C + B 22 II I where he firs erm on he righ of he above expression equals -C and he second erm equals B. This invesmen in a four-year college degree is a worhy invesmen if NPV 18 is greaer han or equal zero. Alernaively, we can proceed as if we do no know r and se NPV 18 = 0, and solve for * r, he discoun rae ha makes NVP a age 18 equal o zero. This discoun rae is he 6

7 (marginal) inernal rae of reurn on he invesmen in college educaion. A larger more aracive educaion invesmen projec. * r implies a We can draw some addiional implicaions from his exercise. Firs, suppose ha earnings of college graduaes were o increase relaive o high school graduaes, hen NPV 18 and increase, implying ha invesing a four-year college degree is an even beer invesmen * r would proposiion han before. Second, suppose ha individuals who complee a four-year college degree acually work more years, say o age 68, bu high school graduaes reire earlier a age 65 (earnings a zero). How will his affec he decision o inves in a four-year college degree? Boh NPV 18 and * r will increase. Third, suppose ha he direc cos of aending college, say uiion increases dramaically (i.e., C 2 increases), how will his affec he college invesmen decision? Since C is a larger negaive value and oher hings are unchanged, boh NPV 18 and decrease, i.e., invesing in a four-year college degree will become less aracive. * r will Moreover, equaion (1) and is inernal rae of reurn alernaive are powerful ools o be used in addressing any human capial invesmen decision. In almos all cases, he coss are upfron or a he beginning of he projec and he benefis are in he fuure, generally ending a reiremen (or a he end of life). For example, consider women and heir reamen during pregnancy: access o pre-naal medical care, an improved die rich in viamins, folic acid, and calcium, and behavioral modificaion (no smoking, drinking alcohol or doing drugs). This se of evens which has coss also has been shown o improve he healh of new borne babies, including increasing birh weigh (Rosenzweig and Schulz 1983). In addiion, i is widely acceped ha poorly developed organ sysems ha arise from a poor feal environmen are one of he main causes of early on-se of chronic diseases of old age (Fogel 1994). Moreover, recen research by Behrman and Rosenzweig (2004) have shown ha increasing birhweigh increases adul schooling aainmen and adul heigh for babies a mos levels of birhweigh, bu does no affec 7

8 adul body mass index. However, maure heigh and school aainmen impac adul earnings posiively (Keng and Huffman 2007). Hence, a long erm payoff resuls from an invesmen in human capial as refleced in babies birhweigh. You migh like some informaion abou he relaive araciveness of various ypes of human capial invesmens. I have reviewed a wide variey of lieraure, and pulled ogeher my assessmen of he likely rae of reurn o human capial invesmens of various ypes (Heckman 2006, Welch 1999, Card 1999, Heckman e al. 1999, Doughery 2005, Heckman e al. 2006, Heckman and Lafonaine 2006, Huffman and Evenson 2006). In Table 1, I have grouped hem ino he following caegories: (i) exremely high, (ii) high, (iii) medium o low, and (iv) oher: highly variable. In he exremely high caegory, I include improved gesaion environmen of babies, preschool programs of disadvanaged children and an elemenary school diploma. In he high caegory, I include a high school diploma, four-year college degree, advanced degrees I (Masers level) and advanced degrees II (Ph.D., MD, JD, DD). Invesing in migraion and informaion seem likely o have highly variable reurns. IV. Globalizaion and he Changing World Labor Marke Globalizaion of he markes for many goods and financial asses has implicaions for he U.S. labor marke of he fuure, which in ern has implicaions for fuure human capial invesmens. Manufacured goods are highly radable, and hence, jobs in manufacuring are especially vulnerable o inernaional compeiion. Bu new evidence suggess ha boh manufacuring jobs and service jobs may be a risk o inernaional compeiion. Impors from lowincome counries were he fases growing componens of U.S. rade from 1972 o 1997, increasing more rapidly han aggregae impors. As U.S. rade barriers have fallen in recen years, Bernard e al. (2006) show ha low-wage counries like China and India have begun exporing o he U.S. many of he more labor-inensive producs formerly produced domesically. This so- 8

9 called produc cycling where he U.S. moves ou of labor-inensive producs like -shirs and sneakers as lower-cos developing counies move in is a key feaure of endowmen-driven rade heory. Given he higher relaive wages in he U.S., i is virually impossible for U.S. firms o earn profis producing labor-inensive goods. As a resul, indusries like apparel and foowear are all bu disappearing, while more skill- and capial-inensive secors such as insrumens and sofware creaion hrive here. However, here are muliple margins of adjusmen o low-wage counry impors, e.g., exi and produc upgrading. Labor-inense plans are relaively more suscepible o low-wage counry impors han are capial- and skill-inensive plans in he same indusry. As a resul, wihinindusry aciviy should shif oward relaively capial- and skill-inensive plans. I is imporan o focus on low-wage counry impor peneraions, e.g., impor peneraion from counries ha have per capia GDP ha is less han 5 percen of he U.S. level. This aenion o where impors originae is moivaed by he facor proporions framework (capial-labor, capial-skilled labor, and/or capial-unskilled labor raios) and allows for a cleaner es of he influence of comparaive advanage han aggregae impor peneraion, which reas impors from high- and low-wage counries symmerically. Figure 2 (fig 4 of Jensen) displays he associaion beween he U.S. low-wage-counry impor shares and he U.S. indusry average annual wage for disaggregaed U.S. indusries. Lowwage U.S. manufacuring jobs can be classified as hose ha pay an annual wage of less han $40,000 (or roughly a wage of $20 per hour) and high-wage jobs pay $40,000 or more. Figure 2 shows low-skill, low-wage, labor-inensive aciviies in he manufacuring secor face high levels of low-wage-counry impor compeiion as recenly as 2006, e.g., apparel, leaher and allied producs, exile producs, furniure and relaed producs, and miscellaneous producs (which include oys). In conras, high-wage, high-skill indusries face low compeiion from low-wage- 9

10 counries as refleced in he low-wage-counry impor share, e.g., ransporaion equipmen, chemicals, and peroleum and coal producs. An oulier o his rend is he compuer and elecronic equipmen indusry, which has a high average wage and a relaively high low-wagecounry impor compeiion. This excepion is mos likely due o he increased fragmenaion of consumer elecronics producion where he underlying componens, like semi-conducors, ha are high-wage, high-skill aciviies produced in he U.S. and shipped o China for low-wage, laborinensive assembly (Jensen and Klezer 2008). U.S. manufacuring plans seem o adjus o inernaional compeiion from low-skilled, low-wage counries in hree dimensions. A he indusry level, exposure o low-wage counry impors is negaively associaed wih plan survival and employmen growh (Bernard e al. 2006). Wihin indusries, he higher is he exposure of he indusry o low-wage counry impors, he larger is he relaive performance difference beween capial- and labor-inensive plans. Moreover, a posiive associaion exiss beween exposure o low-wage counry impors and indusry swiching. Plans ha swich indusries shif ino indusries ha have less exposure o low-wage counry impors and greaer capial- and skill-inensiy han he indusries hey lef behind. In manufacuring, i is he low-wage, labor-inensive indusries like Apparel ha are mos vulnerable o low-wage impor compeiion. The U.S. coninues o have srong expor performance in high-wage, skill-inensive manufacuring indusries. These resuls suppor he view ha U.S. manufacuring is moving away from comparaive-disadvanage aciviies and oward comparaive advanage indusries via exi, growh and indusry swiching. Some U.S. indusries remain quie compeiive, having large expors per worker. Figure 3 (fig 7 jensen) shows he associaion beween U.S. expors per worker in manufacuring and U.S. indusry average annual wage. I confirms he sory from he impor compeiion graph lowwage, low-skilled U.S. indusries expor lile per worker, e.g., apparel, exile producs, leaher 10

11 and allied producs, furniure and relaed producs. However, i also shows ha in high-wage, high-skilled U.S. indusries, expors per worker are high, e.g., ransporaion equipmen, compuer and elecronics and peroleum and coal producs. Summing up, lower-paying, labor-inensive U.S. indusries face inense inernaional compeiion from low-wage, labor-abundan counries, bu ha he U.S. coninues o have a comparaive advanage in high-wage, capial- and echnologyinensive manufacuring. A new direcion in poenial inernaional compeiion in services boh impors o he U.S and U.S. expors. Some services require face-o-face ineracions, e.g., hair cus, legal counseling and medicaion reamens, bu ohers do no, e.g., accouning, archiecural services, sofware publishing, securiies and commodiy rading, and R&D. Occupaional groups wih low employmen shares in radable aciviies require a physical presence o deliver hem, e.g., educaion, healhcare praciioners, healhcare suppor workers, food preparers, janiorial workers. Jensen and Klezer (2008) presen new evidence on he poenial radabiliy of services. They argue ha good informaion on wheher a service has he poenial o be inernaional radable can be gleaned from evidence on inra-counry radabiliy of services. For example, many service aciviies movie and music recording producion, securiies and commodiies rading, sofware and engineering services, and air-ravel plan reservaions appear o be radable wihin he U.S., and hus, are poenially radable inernaionally. Those aciviies ha require face-o-face ineracions are far less likely o be radable services. Figure 4 (Jensen figure 2) shows ha he share of U.S. employmen ha is in radable professional services is 13.7 percen, which is larger han he share of employmen in radable manufacuring indusries of 12.4 percen. Some big service secors educaion, healhcare, personal services and public adminisraion do have low shares of employmen in radable indusries. Also, a relaively small share of employmen is in radable reail and wholesale rades. When workers in radable occupaions (e.g., compuer 11

12 programmers, he reail banking indusry or medical ranscripionis in he healh care indusry) in nonradable indusries are included, he share of he U.S. workforce in radable service aciviies is even higher (Jensen and Klezer 2008). While many services appear radable, Jensen and Klezer (2008) sugges ha only abou one-hird of he jobs in hese aciviies will face meaningful compeiion from low-wage counries or risk being off-shored in he nex decade. Tradable service jobs, such as hose in engineering or research and developmen firms, are good jobs. Workers in radable service aciviies have higher han average earning. Par of his premium is due o hese workers having higher educaional aainmen han oher workers, bu even conrolling for differences in educaion and oher personal characerisics, workers in radable service aciviies have 10 percen higher earnings. Wihin he se of professional service indusries, a worker in a radable indusry and a radable occupaion has earnings almos 20 percen higher han similar professional service workers in a nonradable indusry and occupaion. High earnings in radable service aciviies do no mean ha hese jobs will be los o low-wage counries. High-wage, high-skill aciviies are consisen wih U.S. comparaive advanage. The U.S. coninues o expor high-wage, high-skill business services like compue sofware publishing, saellie elecommunicaions services and inegraed record producion and disribuion (Figure 5, Jensen figure 8). Mos issues abou off-shoring focus on he jobs ha migh be los bu neglec o emphasize ha he U.S. has comparaive advanage in many service aciviies. Jensen and Klezer (2008) sugges ha increased expors of services are likely o benefi many U.S. firms and workers in he fuure. They sugges ha a leas wo-hirds of radable business service jobs are skilled enough o be consisen wih U.S. comparaive advanage. U.S. service workers and firms are likely o be beneficiaries of increased rade in services hrough increased expor opporuniies. 12

13 However, i is imporan o remember ha many impedimens exis o rade in services, ranging from language and culural differences o regulaory and echnical barriers. These impedimens are likely o proec U.S. firms and service workers from impor compeiion bu are also likely o impede U.S. firms and service workers from rapidly growing expors. These impedimens reduce he gains o he Unied Saes from rade in services and increased living sandards ha could resul. If harmonizaion of regulaions and expanding muual recogniion of professional sandards and accrediaion could occur, he fuure poenial of increased benefis of rade in services could develop over he nex decade. I is useful o ake a look a he record on indusry employmen change over , broken ou by secor and radable/nonradable classificaion. All indusries experienced a major downurn in employmen over his period by 13 percen in nonradable agriculure, mining and manufacuring and 23 percen in radable agriculure, mining and manufacuring. In conras, service secor, employmen increased by 10 percen in nonradable and 13 percen in radable services. Thus, radable manufacuring indusries experienced experience large losses relaive o nonradable manufacuring, bu radable service indusries had employmen growh similar o nonradable service indusries (Jensen and Klezer 2008). In summary, he evidence suggess ha lower-paying, labor-inensive U.S. indusries face compeiion from low-wage, labor-abundan counries, bu ha he U.S. coninues o have a comparaive advanage in high-wage, capial- and echnology-inensive manufacuring. Also, here are more jobs in radable services han in radable manufacuring, and workers in radable service aciviies have higher skill levels and are paid higher wages han manufacuring workers or workers in nonradable services aciviies. However, some workers are displaced in boh secors and displaced radable service workers have higher skills and higher pre-displacemen earnings han displaced manufacuring workers (Jensen and Klezer 2005). Undersanding where he fuure 13

14 comparaive advanage of he U.S. indusries, occupaions and workers lies is imporan in planning for fuure educaional invesmens. For example, U.S. high school dropous ha anicipae working in low-skilled, low-wage U.S. manufacuring can expec a large amoun of compeiion from large counries wih many low-wage, unskilled workers. Given he shif in he srucure of he U.S. labor force oward services and foreign compeiion, young people should pursue higher educaion and employmen in nonradable services so as lessen he feeling of compeiion from abroad. V. How Much and Who Pays for a College Educaion? Since we are on a universiy campus, where educaion or eaching and learning are major aciviies, i is useful o look more carefully a some issues underlying he supply and demand for college educaion. A lile hisory may be useful here. The average earnings of full-ime workers wih four or more years of college educaion relaive ha of a high school graduae was roughly 1.37 in 1969 bu seady declined and boomed ou in1979 a 1.30 or abou a 7.5% decline. Saring in 1980, his wage raio rose relaively rapidly o 1.65 in 1990 or abou 24% (Welch 1999). This high raio coninued hrough he 1990s and ino he 21 s Cenury. A broader wage comparison is insrucive here. Over he period 1979 o 2007, he consan dollar median usual weekly earning of full-ime wage and salary for hose wih less han a high school diploma decreased by 28% for men and by 8.7% for women. See Figure 6. Men who were a high school graduae (bu wihou any college) experienced a 16% decline, bu for women, he weekly earnings rose a lile 4%. Men who had some college or an associae degree also experienced a small decline by 7%, bu women s weekly earning rose 8.6%. Men who had a Bachelors degree or higher educaion experienced an 18% rise in earnings over his period, and women experienced a much larger rise by 33%. These resuls are consisen wih he sory of he preceding secion, low-educaion U.S. workers, especially men in manufacuring, have 14

15 experienced a dramaic decline in heir earnings over he pas 30 years. The decline for loweducaion women has been less because a larger share of hem are employed in services, which face less foreign compeiion. High-educaion men and women have experienced a subsanial rise in real earnings over he pas 30 years. Many of hem are employed in high-skilled, highechnology jobs ha face relaively low impor compeiion, and for some of hem, hey are employed in areas ha are effecive exporers of services. Given ha he reurns o college in he U.S. seem o be high and have been high for roughly a decade, and he marke for high-skilled labor is increasing, wha does he disribuion of educaional aainmen of young aduls look like? Figure 7 provides informaion for aduls years of age in By age 30, almos all aduls have compleed heir formal educaion, including advanced and professional degrees. However, only 31.2 percen of hese individuals have compleed a leas a Bachelor s degree (only 10.6% of hem wih an advanced degree). This is raher shocking. The economic evidence is ha individuals who have compleed some college perform in he labor marke a roughly he level of high school graduaes, which is subsanially below ha of college graduaes. Hence, roughly 55.4 percen of our young aduls are equipped wih only a high school degree or slighly more. Moreover, even wih he dramaic fall in real wages for high school drop ous, 13.6 percen of he young aduls are high school drop ous. This laer group is especially vulnerable o poor fuure labor marke oucomes, and i remains a puzzle as o why he share has no declined. 1, 2 Who is paying for college educaion in he U.S.? Recen Sallie Mae, he naional s leading provider of saving- and paid-for-college programs, and Gallop, conduced one of he firs surveys of college sudens and parens of sudens years of age (SallieMae 2008). The reference year was he academic school year, and hey asked abou he oal cos of college 1 The share of aduls years of age who are high school drop ous is a lile higher almos 14%. 2 Counries ha rank higher include Canada, Japan, Korea, Sweden. See Appendix A. 15

16 uiion and relaed expenses (uiion, books, fees, room and board) and he mehod by which parens and sudens pay for college. The esimaed average cos of a year a college was $14,628-- $13,706 for four-year sae universiies and $27,679 for four-year privae colleges and universiies. The sudy shows ha boh parens and sudens shared he coss of a year of college. Overall, parens on average conribued he larges share of paying for college (48%) 32 percen from curren income and savings and 16 percen from borrowing (Table 2). The sudens on average covered 33 percen of he cos 23 percen hrough borrowing and 10 percen from own income and savings. Grans and scholarships made up 15 percen of he amoun paid, and a small amoun of suppor came from friends and relaives (3%). A four-year public universiies where he average cos was $13,706, parens on average conribued 49 percen of he cos 35.2 percen from curren income and savings and 13.9 percen from borrowing (Figure 8). The college sudens on average covered 32.1 percen of he cos wih 22.7 percen from suden borrowing and 9.4 percen from suden saving and income. Grans and scholarships made up 14.4 percen of he amoun paid, and a small amoun of suppor came from friends and relaives (4.4%). Hence, we see ha sharing of he cos of college beween parens, sudens and gran/scholarships are very similar for four-year sae universiies and all public and privae insiuions offering college degree. However, for parens wih sudens in fouryear public universiies a lile larger share of he cos roughly 3 percenage poins is from curren income and savings and less from paren borrowing. Public universiies receive a subsidy from sae governmen appropriaions o suppor undergraduae educaion and oher eaching, research and oureach aciviies. Using a Dela Projec Repor (Wellman e al. 2009), I esimae ha he sae governmen subsidies o public fouryear universiies for undergraduae educaion was $3,900 per full ime equivalen suden in he academic year, or he average oal cos of a year of college educaion a a four-year 16

17 public insiuion was $13,706 + $3,900 or roughly $17,606. This is an average sae governmen subsidy rae from sae governmen appropriaions of roughly 22 percen. 3 The size of his subsidy, which is largely paid by local Sae income and sales ax collecions, has been declining over he pas decade (in consan dollars). Public universiies coss in consan prices have been relaively consan and uiion has been growing a abou 5.5 percen (Wellman e al. 2009). Since 2000, sae governmens have revealed a growing unwillingness o appropriae funds o suppor undergraduae educaion and oher aciviies of heir sae universiies. One can reasonably ask why his is occurring. Recall ha Land-gran universiies were esablished by he Morrill Ac of 1862 for eaching of agriculural and mechanical ars o common people. The needs of farmers (and families) across he U.S. for new scienific knowledge o help hem compee and prosper led o he Hach Ac of 1887, which provided federal funding for sae agriculural experimen saions o underake agriculure and home economics research. Alhough early financial suppor was mainly federal, sae governmens laer assumed he majoriy funding role, which was naural given heir emphasis on applied and basic research o assis local agriculure (and families). The esablishmen of a federal-sae exension service was aided by he Smih-Lever Ac of Hence, he primary srucure of land-gran universiies was esablished by he early 20 h cenury (Goldin and Kaz 1999, Huffman and Evenson 2006b). In he firs half of he 20 h Cenury, a growing supply of high school graduaes from families wih modes means were produced by he high school movemen and some of hem chose o aend college (Goldin and Kaz 1997). During he pos-world War II period, a major ransformaion of he land-gran sysem resuled in an expansion in scale (size) and scope (number of specialized deparmens and professional schools). Land-gran universiies became major ceners of complemenary research and eaching aciviies, where faculy rained for research and 3 I use wha is repored as full educaional coss, which include direc insrucional coss, plus spending for suden services and he insrucional share of cenral academic and adminisraive suppor. I does no for example include he implici renal on capial in classrooms or laboraories and equipmen used for eaching. 17

18 advancing he sae of knowledge also engaged in undergraduae and graduae educaion. Also, over , he mass exodus of people ou of agriculure, mos wih high school diplomas, provided a growing demand for college educaion. Public universiies responded by offering an increasingly diverse range of undergraduae majors and degrees. Through his era, undergraduae sudens were primarily in-sae sudens, and hey were seeking a college educaion so ha many of hem could coninue o live and work in he sae where heir parens worked and paid axes. Abundan evidence exiss ha sae governmens were willingly o provide large subsidies o public insiuions of higher educaion in hese early years because i direcly benefied local agriculure, business, and naural resource developmen and he ciizens of he sae. 4 Much has changed (Jus and Huffman 2009). College sudens are now more mobile looking across sae borders for he bes educaion deal. Even if hey aend he local land-gran universiy, a large share of hem expec o ake jobs and live in oher saes. The USDA has dramaically reduced is block gran funding of agriculural research and exension, and scieniss have been increasingly encouraged o seek compeiive gran funding a he federal level (NIH, NSF, USDA, ec). This means ha Saes can expec o capure a smaller share of he fuure benefis from he educaion of heir graduaes and discoveries of heir scieniss. Hence, sae governmens are reducing heir appropriaions for land-gran universiies, and land-gran and oher public universiies are raising uiion raes a a relaively rapid rae in an aemp o cover a larger share of he cos of educaing sudens. Where are we headed? One possibiliy is ha he consequen budge realiies may lead o a new insiuional srucure whereby public research universiies are ransformed ino mixed publicprivae universiies. The componens of he universiy ha provide relaively largely wihin-sae 4 Goldin and Kaz (1999) emphasize ha a large share of he early engineering graduaes were employed by he governmen secor, and graduaes of wo- and four-year educaion colleges were employed primarily by local school disrics. Also, early graduaes of colleges of agriculure, veerinary medicine, and he sciences were largely employed in local agriculure. 18

19 benefis, such as colleges of agriculure wih heir experimen saions and exension services and/or colleges of educaion may jusify large sae subsidies, including low uiion raes. Oher unis ha provide raining for degrees ha are similar o ha offered by non-land-gran public and privae universiies would charge higher uiion raes raes comparable o privae universiies wih similar qualiy degree offerings. Research faculy would be asked o seek gran funds from ouside of sae sources. Second, given ha he benefis of college educaion and research discoveries underaken in any given Sae exend increasingly beyond is boundaries, regional groups of saes or perhaps he Federal governmen, migh ake new responsibiliies for raising resources and allocaing hem o insrucion and research in public universiies. This could be srucured so ha he cos burden of insrucion and research are more closely ied o he area(s) receiving he benefis, including posiive exernaliies. This is he principle of fiscal equivalence from public economics, which has been proposed by Mancur Olson, anoher famous economis from he Dakoas (Olson 1969, 1986). 5 Third, land-gran and oher public universiies could coninue on heir pah of slowly being convered ino privae universiies, and evenually receiving insignifican sae financial suppor. I have provided a shor menu of opions for land-gran universiies in he fuure some which seem beer han ohers for he long erm. However, he roue ha we ravel will significanly impac invesmens in people in he 21 s Cenury. VI. Conclusions Ted Schulz was an incredibly insighful man judging ideas and people wih unusual experise. His acions were very imporan o improvemens a Iowa Sae Universiy and a he Universiy of Chicago, where he spen a combined oal of 24 years as a deparmen head. His idea of human capial, invesing in people has seadily expanded o an increasing array of aciviies 5 Olson was from Grand Forks, Norh Dakoa. 19

20 ranging from modern economic growh and developmen o he economics of he households and oher non-marke aciviies. Land-gran universiies have a very special place in he raining of undergraduae and graduae sudens and in underaking he work of advancing he froniers of knowledge in many areas. These are high-skill inensive aciviies and canno be successfully underaken by par-ime faculy or faculy ha spends all of heir ime eaching. A he sar of he 20 h Cenury, major universiies for he firs ime sared o make discovery an imporan par of a universiy job. This feaure disinguishes U.S. universiies from hose in many oher pars of he world. I is a rich heriage and one no o be aken lighly. Invesing in people for he 21 s Cenury is a very imporan aciviy, wih imporan decisions o be made a many levels. 20

21 References Behrman, J.R. and M.R. Rosenzweig. Reurns o Birhweigh. The Review of Economics and Saisics 86(2004): Bernard, A.B., J.B. Jensen, and P.K. Scho. Survival of he Bes Fi: Exposure o Low-Wage Counries and he (Uneven) Growh of U.S. Manufacuring Plans. Journal of Inernaional Economics 68(2006): Card, D. The Casual Effec of Educaion on Earnings, in O.C. Ashenfeler and D. Card, Eds., Handbook of Labor Econ., Vol. 3A. New York, NY. Elsevier, 1999, pp Wellman, J.V., D.M. Desrochers, and C.M. Lenihan. The Growing Imbalance: Recen Trends in U.S. Possecondary Educaion Finance. Dela Cos Projec, Washingon, DC, Jan Doughery, C. Why Are he Reurns o Schooling Higher for Women han for Men? J. Human Resources 40(2005): Fogel, R.W. Economic Growh, Populaion Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on he Making of Economic Policy. American Economic Review 84(1994): Goldin C. and L.F. Kaz. Why he Unied Saes Led in Educaion: Lessons from Secondary School Expansion, 1910 o Naional Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, No. 6144, Augus, Goldin, C. and L.F. Kaz. The Shaping of Higher Educaion: The Formaive Years in he Unied Saes 1890 o Journal of Economic Perspecives 13(1999): Heckman, J.J. Skill Formaion and he Economics of Invesing in Disadvanaged Children. Science 312(June 30, 2006): Heckman, J.J. and P. LaFonaine. Bias-Correced Esimaes of GED Reurns. Journal of Labor Economics 24(2006): Heckman, J.J., R.J. LaLonde and J.A. Smih. The Economics of Economeric of Acive Labor Marke Programs. In Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3a, Chaper 31, O. Ashenfeler and D. Card, Eds., New York, NY: Norh-Holland Publ, 1999, pp Heckman. J., J. Lochner and P. Todd. Earnings Funcions, Raes of Reurn and Treamen Effecs: The Mincer Equaion and Beyond. In Handbook of he Economics of Educaion, E.A. Hanushek and F. Welch, Eds., Amserdam, The Neherlands: Norh-Holland, 2006, pp Heckman, J.J. and D.V. Maserov. "The Produciviy Argumen for Invesing in Young Children," Review of Agriculural Economics 29(Fall 2007):

22 Huffman, W.E. and R.E. Evenson. Do Formula or Compeiive Gran Funds have Greaer Impacs on Sae Agriculural Produciviy? Amererican Journal of Agriculural Economics 88(2006a): Huffman, W.E. and R.E. Evenson. Science for Agriculure: A Long-Term Perspecive. 2 nd Ediion. Ames, IA: Blackwell Publishing 2006b. Jensen, J.B. and L.G. Klezer. Tradable Services: Undersanding he Scope and Impac of Service Ousourcing. Peerson Insiue for Inernaional Economics, Working Paper WP05-9, Sep Jensen, J.B. and L.G. Klezer. 'Fear' and Offshoring: The Scope and Poenial Impac of Impors and Expors of Services. Peerson Insiue for Inernaional Economics, Policy Brief PB08-1, January, Jus, R.E. and W.E. Huffman. The Economics of Universiies in a New Age of Funding Opions. Research Policy 38 (2009) Keng, S.H. and W.E. Huffman. Binge Drinking and Labor Marke Success: A Longiudinal Sudy on Young People. Journal of Populaion Economics 20(2007): OECD. Educaion a a Glance: Paris, France, Sep Olson, M. The Principle of Fiscal Equivalence: The Division of Responsibiliies among Differen Levels of Governmen. American Economic Review 59(1969): Olson, M. Toward a More General Theory of Governmen Srucure. American Economic Review 76(1986): Rosenzweig, M.R. and T.P. Schulz. Esimaing a Household Producion Funcion: Heerogeneiy, he Demand for Healh Inpus, and Their Effecs on Birh Weigh. Journal of Poliical Economy 91(1983): SallieMae. How America Pays for College. Reson, VA, Augus Schulz, T.W. Invesing in Human Capial. American Economic Review 51(March 1961):1-17. Schulz, T.W. Invesing in Human Capial: Reply. American Economic Review 51(Dec.1961): U.S. Census Bureau. Educaional Aainmen in he Unied Saes: U.S. Deparmen of Commerce, P20-560, January, Welch, F. In Defense of Inequaliy. American Economic Review 89(May 1999):

23 Figure 1. The economics of invesing in a 4-year college degree, given a high school diploma Labor earnings (U.S. dollars) II (Universiy graduaes) Benefis: B I (High school graduae) Coss 0 18 C 1 C Age Time (years) (cos years) (benefi years)

24 24 70

25 Figure 3 Furniure and relaed producs

26 Mining, uiliies, consrucion Agriculure 1% Nonradable 60% Professional services 14% Educaion/healh 0% Personal services 2% 26

27 Figure 5

28 Figure 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Saisics

29 Figure 7 Educaional Aainmen of Aduls Years of Age, 2007(%) Advanced Degree 10.6 High School Drop Ou 13.6 Bachelor's Degree (bu no advanced) 20.6 High School Graduae 26.9 Some College (<4 year degree) 28.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Curren Populaion Survey 29

30 Figure 8. How he Average Family Pays for College a a Four-year Public Universiy (percen of $13,706), Friends/ Relaives 4.4 Grans/ Scholarship 14.4 Parens' Income/Saving 35.2 Suden Borrowing 22.7 Suden Income/Saving 9.4 Parens' Borrowing 13.9 Source: SallieMae 2008

31 Russian Federaion1 Canada Japan1 Israel Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway Unied Saes Spain France Finland Ausralia Denmark Neherlands Unied Kingdom Iceland Luxembourg Swizerland New Zealand Greece Poland Germany Ausria Mexico Hungary Porugal Chile Ialy Slovak Republic Czech Republic Turkey Brazil APPENDIX A. OECD: Populaion ha has Aained Teriary Educaion, Percenage by Age Group (2004) % 25-o-34-year-olds 45-o-54-year-olds Teriary educaion is educaion beyond high school leading o a degree, which migh be a 2-year vocaional degree. OECD 2009.

32 Table 1._Likely Inflaion Adjused Reurns o Human Capial Invesmens 1) Exremely high (>25%) Improved pre-naal environmen for babies Pre-school programs for disadvanaged children (esp. developmen of social skills) Elemenary school diploma 2) High (10-25%) Four-year college degree (BA/BS) Advanced degree II (Ph.D., MD, JD, DD) Advanced degrees I (Masers level) High school diploma 3) Medium o Low (0-9%) Some high school Some college or 2-year college degree (AA) General Equivalency Diploma (GED cerificae) Job raining (O-J-T) Job raining (Job Training Parnership Ac) 4) Oher: Highly variable Migraion Informaion, including Agriculural Exension which is acually quie high

33 Table 2. How he Average Family Pays for College a Public and Privae Colleges and Universiies (percen of $ 14,628 in ) Parens income & saving 32 Parens borrowing 16 Suden income & saving 10 Suden borrowing 23 Grans & Scholarships 15 Friends & Relaives 3 Toal 100 Source: SallieMae (2008) 33

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