Globally Challenged: Are U. S. Students Ready to Compete?
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1 Globally Challenged: Are U. S. Students Ready to Compete? Paul E. Peterson, Ludger Woessmann, Eric A. Hanushek, and Carlos Lastra Learning from the International Experience Program on Education Policy and Governance Harvard University August 2011
2 International Comparisons Extensive assessments of math, science, and reading skills International comparisons largely ignored by U.S. U.S. scores portend bleak future Current recession costs dwarfed by schooling crisis
3 International Math Rankings PISA 2009 PISA Math Performance Shanghai- Singapore Hong Kong- Korea Chinese Finland Liechtenstein Switzerland Japan Canada Netherlands Macao-China New Belgium Australia Germany Estonia Iceland Denmark Slovenia Norway France Slovak Austria Poland Sweden Czech United Hungary Luxembourg United States Ireland Portugal Spain Italy Latvia Lithuania Russian Greece Croatia Dubai (UAE) Israel Turkey Serbia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Romania Uruguay Chile Thailand Mexico Trinidad and Kazakhstan Montenegro Argentina Jordan Brazil Colombia Albania Tunisia Indonesia Qatar Peru Panama Kyrgyzstan
4 Cognitive Skills and Economic Growth
5 Secondary School Completion Secondary School Completion Rates 100 Percent Germany Ireland Japan Finland Korea Greece Norway United Kingdom Switzerland Israel Iceland Czech Republic Slovenia Italy EU19 average Denmark Poland Slovak Republic OECD average Hungary New Zealand United States Sweden Canada Spain Luxembourg Chile Portugal Mexico Turkey
6 Years of Schooling and Economic Growth With quality control Without quality control
7 Projections of Value of Improved Schooling Assume future looks like past Improve schools over 20 years Calculate added GDP based on history Discount future over lifetime of somebody born today
8 Scenario 1 Growth Projections - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.)
9 60% Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement (1/4 std. dev.) 50% Percent addition to annual GDP 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Year
10 60% Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement (1/4 std. dev.) 50% Percent addition to annual GDP 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Year
11 60% Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement (1/4 std. dev.) 50% Percent addition to annual GDP 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Year
12 Scenario 1 Growth Projections - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) - PV = 288% of current GDP - $44 trillion for United States
13 Growth Projections Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) Scenario 2 - U.S. achieves at level of Finland - PV = 737% of current GDP in United States - $112 trillion for United States
14 Growth Projections Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) Scenario 2 - U.S. achieves at level of Finland Scenario 3 - All students to 400 points (basic skills) [19% in U.S.] - PV = 567% of current GDP in United States - $86 trillion for United States
15 Math League Tables % proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard) - 32 nd out of 65 countries
16 Proficient in Math PISA 2009
17 Math League Tables % proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard) - 32 nd out of 65 countries Massachusetts significantly outperformed by 6 Minnesota significantly outperformed by 11
18 California competes with...
19 California competes with...
20 California competes with...
21 Math League Tables % proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard) - 32 nd out of 65 countries Massachusetts significantly outperformed by 6 Minnesota significantly outperformed by 11 California significantly outperformed by 36
22 Observations Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate White students
23 White Students in US vs All Internationally
24 Observations Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate White students - 42% proficient; 17 th in comparison to all in other countries College educated parents
25 Students in US with College Educated Parent vs All Internationally
26 Observations Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate White students - 42% proficient; 17 th in comparison to all in other countries College educated parents - 44% proficient; 16 th in comparison to all in other countries
27 Conclusions Not a few bad states Not a difficult to educate population Very different futures for United States Easy to ignore, hard to recover
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