Figures. Contents. 1. Introduction Higher Education student s enrolments at HEIs in the UK HE enrolments at Welsh HEIs...

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1 Attachment 6 The Labour Market Outcomes of Recent Graduates: A review of the Evidence Background paper for the Higher Education Strategy and Plan for Wales Labour Market Intelligence Project D.Blackaby, S.Drinkwater, P.Murphy, N.O Leary, A.Staneva Swansea University April 2014

2 2 Contents 1. Introduction Higher Education student s enrolments at HEIs in the UK HE enrolments at Welsh HEIs The HESA Micro-data Graduate migration and labour market outcomes of 2008/09 leavers Regional overview of graduate employment Labour market outcomes Graduate employment contracts and employer size Graduate jobs Industrial sector Estimating employment outcomes associated with qualification Graduate earnings Earnings by unitary authority within Wales Institution effect Returns to education Graduates job satisfaction and feedback Employment outcomes of Economics graduates Changing structure of the UK economy and labour market demand Summary and conclusion Figures Figure 1: Annual change in student population by country of institution, 2004/05 to 2011/ Figure 2: %age of UK domiciled First-degree leavers from 2008/09 in employment within the UK regions Figure 3: Proportion of UK domiciled postgraduate leavers 2008/09 in employment within the UK regions. 13 Figure 4: Typology of graduates mobility (% of those with Welsh connection) Figure 5: Employment of 2008/09 graduates by regions Figure 6: Destinations of UK domiciled leavers by all levels of qualification obtained and activity 2002/03, 2004/05, 2006/07 and 2008/ Figure 7: Welsh graduates employed in Wales and England by employer size band, Figure 8: Occupational profile of Welsh-domiciled graduates by highest qualification obtained, Figure 9: Occupational profile of employed Welsh and non-welsh domiciled graduates, Figure 10: Occupational profile of graduates employed in Wales by gender (%), Figure 11: Industrial profile of graduates employed in Wales by age (%age of graduates in each sector),

3 3 Figure 12: Graduate gross annual salary ( ) by highest qualification obtained, Figure 13: Job satisfaction of graduates, Figure 14: Satisfaction of graduates by age, Figure 15: Economics graduates activity outcomes three years after graduation Figure 16: Occupational profile of Welsh-domiciled economics graduates, Figure 17: Industry profile of Welsh-domiciled economics graduates, Tables Table 1: All student enrolments on HE courses by level of study, mode of study and domicile 2007/08 to 2011/12.6 Table 2: All student enrolments on HE courses at Welsh HEIs 2009/10 and 2010/ Table 3: %age change 2010/11 to 2012/13 in enrolments at Welsh HEIs by institution, level and mode...8 Table 4: Data description HESA Destination of leavers 2008/ Table 5: Distribution of full-time UK domiciled undergraduate students by level of study, region of domicile and region of HE institution, 2011/ Table 6: Activity profile of Welsh and Non-Welsh domiciled graduate leavers 2008/ Table 7: Activity profile of graduate leavers 2008/09 employed in South West and Mid Wales Table 8: Employment basis of Welsh and Non-Welsh graduate leavers, Table 9: Occupational distribution of employed Welsh and Non-Welsh graduates, Table 10: Occupational profile of graduates employed in Wales by age (%), Table 11: Occupational profile of graduates employed in South West and Mid Wales (%), Table 12: Industrial profile of graduates employed in Wales (%), Table 13: Marginal effects (%) on the probability of employment in the UK- Males and Females Table 14: Graduate gross annual salary ( ) by subject area studied, Table 15: Graduate gross annual salary ( ) by occupations, Table 16: Graduates earning functions by gender, overall sample Table 17: Average gross annual earnings ( ) by workplace Welsh Unitary Authority Table 18: Graduate gross annual salary ( ) by HE institution region, Table 19: Destinations of UK domiciled leavers 2008/09 by institution mission group and view of HE experience32 Table 20: Gross annual salary ( ) by mission groups Table 21: Returns to different institution mission groups, OLS earnings equations Table 22: Earnings returns to higher-level degrees relative to those holding first-degrees, Table 23: Earnings returns to higher-level and first-degrees all by region of employment Table 24: Earnings returns to qualifications by region of employment, Table 25: Earnings returns to PhD, Master and first-degrees relative to lower than first, Table 26: Returns to PhD, Master and First-degrees relative to lower than first, by region, Table 27: Course good value for money, Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Authors analysis.table 28: Marginal effects from ordered probit on graduates job satisfaction in the UK Table 29: Preparation for career (%), Welsh-graduates Table 30: Average annual rate of change in employment by industry sector, Wales and the UK Table 31: Changes in the Industrial Composition of Employment in Wales, Table 32: Changes in the Industrial Composition of Employment in the UK, Table 33: Labour market outcomes of Welsh graduates stayers, movers and returners... 48

4 4 1. Introduction Higher Education student numbers in the UK and Wales have been increasing over the long term because of the policy priority of the UK Government to expand Higher Education in order to meet rising skill needs and to improve the UK s international economic competitiveness. Recent evidence from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the %age of the population classed as graduates has been rising steadily from 17% in 1992 to 38% in In 2013 the graduate employment rate stood at 87% which was higher than the employment rate for those educated to A level standard (83%), A* to C grade GCSE standard (76%) and the rates for those with other qualifications (70%) or no qualifications (47%). A similar view about the country s requirements for a growing HE sector and generating more highly qualified and skilled people has been taken by the Welsh Government. In particular, the growing knowledge economy is seen as providing substantial potential benefits to Wales 2, where one of the key actions set out by the Government program introduced in September 2011, was to drive growth and sustainable jobs. The Welsh Government consultation on Wales Science Policy highlights the importance of the skills of the people and having sufficient talent and technological strengths in the region 3. The economic agenda in the WAG strategic framework for economic development in Wales also gives recognition to the importance of having a skilled, innovative and entrepreneurial workforce 4. Hence, it is of high importance that Higher Education Institutions (HEI) in Wales works together to ensure their graduates have the skills and qualification demanded by employers (Tyers et al., 2006). Attracting and retaining the young graduates is crucial to local and regional economic performance of the Welsh economy. question the relationship between graduates education, earnings, and expectations about work and jobs 5. The current research aims to provide upto-date evidence on recent trends and developments in the graduate labour market. The report focuses solely on Welsh-born graduates and some interesting differences are revealed according to whether or not the respondents have graduated from a Welsh HEI. In order to meet these aims, the research was set the following key objectives: -Provide information on earnings of recent young graduates and their movement into graduate jobs, occupational pathways for different subject groups, the use of subject/discipline knowledge gained in higher education and the use of skills learned in higher education. -Examine Welsh graduates (i.e. those born in Wales) feedback on value of study programmes and their job satisfaction. The study also examines in which subjects graduate premiums are available. This will allow more informed decisions to be made, both on the part of the (potential) student and policy makers, when setting future tuition fee levels. The main source of information about the Welsh graduate labour market comes from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data. The HESA Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) 2008/09 contains information on all United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) domiciled students up to 3.5 years after they have been qualified. The HESA collects information on the characteristics of applicants to Higher Education Institutions (HEIs), their satisfaction with course taken and career to date. Research aims and objectives Given the recent trends in Higher Education in Wales, existing research has already called into

5 5 For the purposes of this report we use the following general terms: graduates individuals who have gained an undergraduate or higher-level degree from a higher education institution in the UK; Higher education qualifications below degree level all other sub-degree qualifications (eg. HNC, HND, DipHE and, more recently, foundation degrees). Individuals studying on these courses are classified in the HESA student statistics as other undergraduate students; Graduates with higher degrees individuals with postgraduate qualifications including masters graduates, individuals with doctorates and a range of other qualifications higher than a degree; Higher education institution (HEI) all institutions in the UK currently offering higher education courses (but not further education colleges with HE students); Welsh-domiciled graduates those who were living in Wales prior to starting their HE study; similarly graduates domiciled in the rest of the UK were those living outside Wales but in the UK prior to HE study. In the report the following typology of groups have also been utilised: Stayers: these individuals are domiciled in Wales prior their entry to HE, they have chosen to study in Wales and go on to work in Wales. Movers: these are individuals who are domiciled in Wales prior to their entry to HE, and who left Wales to study and who remain outside Wales to work. Returners: these individuals are domiciled in Wales prior to their entry to HE, choose to leave Wales to study elsewhere, but return to work in Wales. Others: these are all other graduates who come to work in Wales, but who were neither domiciled in nor studied in Wales prior to this point. The report is structured as follows. Section 2 and 3 provide an overview of recent trends in HE student s enrolments and qualifications at HEIs in the UK. Section 4 describes the HESA micro-data, followed by examination of the routes followed by Leavers from HEIs 2008/09 follow-up respondents upon completion of their studies, detailing the experiences of employment, occupational pathways, further study and unemployment. The final section draws together the main conclusions from the research findings. 2. Higher Education student s enrolments at HEIs in the UK This section uses data and other sources (e.g. policy papers) to set the background and context for the research study. It highlights a number of key issues related to recent trends and developments in the HE and graduate labour market, mainly in the UK. The differences between Wales and the UK are also noted. As Table 1 indicates the total number of HE enrolments at the UK HEIs stood at 2,496,645 in 2011/12, showing a 4% increase from 2008/09. Postgraduate and undergraduate enrolments increased by 6% and 4% respectively between 2008/09 and 2011/12. Postgraduate numbers have increased each year from 2007/08 to 2010/11 decreasing for the first time in 2011/12. Undergraduate enrolments have increased each year over the same time frame apart from a slight decrease in 2010/11. Similarly, the HE student population in Wales has grown to around 131,000 in 2010/11, which represents approximately an increase of 2% from 2009/10. Postgraduate enrolments increased by 7% and undergraduate enrolments increased by 1% between 2009/10 and 2010/11 (see Table 2), which is higher compared to the %age changes in enrolment rates for the UK. Changes in the overall student numbers had varied between each of the nations within the UK (Figure 1). Like the UK as a whole, these changes in total populations from year to year have been shaped by a range of factors, from changes in policy at a national level to fluctuating levels of students demand in different localities and subject areas.

6 6 Table 1: All student enrolments on HE courses by level of study, mode of study and domicile 2007/08 to 2011/12 All UK HEIs Postgraduate 2007/ / / / /12 % Change 2009/10 to 2010/11 % Change 2008/09 to 2011/12 Full-time UK % 11% Other EU % 20% Non-EU % 18% Total % 15% Part-time UK % -3% Other EU % -8% Non-EU % -2% Total % -4% All modes UK % 2% Other EU % 12% Non-EU % 15% Total % 6% Undergraduate Full-time UK % 9% Other EU % 20% Non-EU % 32% Total % 11% Part-time UK % -12% Other EU % -23% Non-EU % 0% Total % -12% All modes UK % 2% Other EU % 13% Non-EU % 27% Total % 4% All levels Full-time UK % 9% Other EU % 20% Non-EU % 24% Total % 12% Part-time UK % -10% Other EU % -15% Non-EU % -1% Total % -9% All modes UK % 2% Other EU % 13% Non-EU % 20% Total % 4% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited 2013.

7 % change % change 7 Table 2: All student enrolments on HE courses at Welsh HEIs 2009/10 and 2010/ / /11 % Change 2009/10 to 2010/11 Postgrad Undergrad Total Postgrad Undergrad Total Postgrad Undergrad Total Wales HEIs Full-time UK % 1% 1% Other EU % -1% 1% Non-EU % 23% 24% Total % 3% 4% Part-time UK % -1% 0% Other EU % -19% -15% Non-EU % -21% -7% Total % -4% -2% All modes UK % 0% 1% Other EU % -9% -6% Non-EU % 17% 15% Total % 1% 2% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited Figure 1: Annual change in student population by country of institution, 2004/05 to 2011/12 England Wales 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Scotland Northern Ireland 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited.

8 8 3. HE enrolments at Welsh HEIs Table 3 examines changes in enrolment rates between 2010/11 and 2012/13 at Welsh HEIs. Two of the nine Welsh institutions saw a fall in the number of all first year entrants. The largest %age decline in total undergraduate students, compared with 2010/11, was seen at Glyndŵr University (5.7 %age fall), whilst the greatest increase was seen at University of Wales Trinity Saint David. Swansea University saw an increase in the number of first year overseas enrolments (non-eu), and 8.2% of enrolments at Swansea University were at postgraduate level. The next highest proportion was at University of Wales Trinity Saint David. Table 3: %age change 2010/11 to 2012/13 in enrolments at Welsh HEIs by institution, level and mode Mode of study Postgraduate Domicile Institution UK Other EU Non- EU Total postgraduate students Total (numbers) 2010/11 Total (numbers) 2012/13 Aberystwyth University 10.1% -15.4% -6.8% -8.9% 25.0% -1.4% Bangor University 7.8% -0.5% -1.2% -8.3% 20.5% 4.9% Cardiff University -7.2% -8.3% -10.8% -21.8% 2.0% -7.7% Cardiff Metropolitan University 43.6% -61.1% 25.7% 5.3% -43.2% -24.1% University of Glamorgan -8.0% -1.9% -3.4% 38.6% -14.9% -5.2% Glyndŵr University 3.2% -4.1% -5.5% -11.1% 4.9% -0.4% University of Wales, Newport -42.1% 3.1% 4.7% 18.2% -55.1% -14.5% Swansea University 2.7% 24.3% 16.5% 3.0% -5.8% 8.2% University of Wales Trinity St. David 24.6% 58.7% 82.6% -43.8% -8.6% 38.2% Total Wales -1.7% -17.8% -3.1% -8.5% -18.1% -9.2% Institution Mode of study Fulltime Parttime Fulltime Parttime UK Undergraduate Other EU Non- EU Domicile Total undergrad students Total (numbers) 2010/2011 Total (numbers) 2012/2013 Total HE students Aberystwyth University 8.7% -7.4% 3.8% 1.2% 52.2% 5.4% % Bangor University -1.1% 12.8% -0.9% 4.8% 18.3% 0.6% % Cardiff University 3.4% -6.2% -0.8% 4.9% 25.9% 1.6% % Cardiff Metropolitan 4.0% -13.7% -0.4% -4.3% 29.9% 2.2% % University of Glamorgan 0.1% 7.9% 3.4% -19.4% -1.5% 2.1% % Glyndŵr University 1.7% -13.4% -11.4% -26.0% 35.9% -5.7% % University of Wales, Newport 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% -45.5% 47.1% 0.6% % Swansea University -2.9% 0.0% -4.6% -10.3% 24.4% -2.5% % University of Wales Trinity St. David 118.3% 43.2% 113.8% -16.7% -35.1% 87.6% % Total Wales 1.8% -3.1% 0.2% -16.3% 14.9% 0.6% % Source: Author s calculations from HESA, 2010/11 and 2012/13 students by institution.

9 9 4. The HESA Micro-data This section discusses the data used in the current report and presents some descriptive statistics of the main variables of interest. The data used comes from the Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) 2008/2009 Survey, carried out by the Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA). The survey has been organised in two stages: the first stage is a census of individuals who have completed higher education courses in the UK. This stage was carried out approximately six months after the course ended and is referred to as the Early Survey. The second stage is a follow-up survey that looks at the destinations of leavers up to 3.5 years after they qualified. This stage is referred to as the Longitudinal Survey. The Longitudinal Survey, by contrast, is not a census survey but is instead based on a sample of the students who responded to the corresponding Early Survey. employment in Powys and Ceredigion. The table shows some diversity in the characteristics of the two groups. For example, the average annual gross income of the Welsh graduates was 26,760, which compares to 30,792 for non-welsh students. In the case of qualification, about 23% of Welsh-domiciled students have a postgraduate degree, and 63.8% a first-degree, which compares to 25.1% and 67.5% respectively for no-welsh domiciled leavers. The highest is the proportion of non-welsh-domiciled postgraduate students in self-employment (5.5%) as compared to Welsh-domiciled postgraduates (3.9%). The questionnaire covered the following topics: main activity on 26 November 2012 (all leavers); details of current employment (leavers in employment); details of course and qualification aims (leavers in further study); other qualifications obtained since 2008/09 (all leavers); satisfaction with course taken in 2008/09 and career to date (all leavers); additional questions for those who completed a research degree in 2008/09. The sample means of the main variables of interest are shown in Table 4 and more detailed descriptive discussions are given in the next sections. For many of the figures and tables presented in the current report we split the sample into two groups, Welshdomiciled graduates and non-welsh domiciled graduates 6. It can be seen that the employment rate for Welsh domiciled students in 2012 was about 86% that compares to 84% for Non-Welsh defined students. About 6% of the Welsh domiciled graduates were employed in Swansea, and less than 2% found their 6 Welsh graduates are defined based on domicile of their origin.

10 10 Table 4: Data description HESA Destination of leavers 2008/09 All graduates Postgraduates Undergraduates Welsh domiciled Non- Welsh domiciled Welsh domiciled Non- Welsh domiciled Welsh domiciled Non- Welsh domiciled In employment Employed in Wales Employed in Powys Employed in Ceredigion Employed in Pembrokeshire Employed in Carmarthenshire Employed in Swansea Employed in Neath Port Talbot Males Average gross annual earnings ( ) 26, , , , , ,456.9 Age Age Age Age 30 and more Postgraduate First degree Other undergraduate Employer size 1 to Employer size 50 to Employer size 250 or more Permanent contract In self employment More than 5 jobs since graduation Subject studied Medicine & dentistry Subjects allied to medicine Biological sciences Veterinary science Agriculture & related subjects Physical sciences Mathematical sciences Computer science Engineering & technology Architecture, building & planning Social studies Law Business & administrative studies Mass commun & documentation Languages Historical & philosophical studies Creative arts & design Education Combined Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Note: Other studies not shown in the table, which are less than 2, includes veterinary and combined studies. Author s analysis.

11 11 5. Graduate migration and labour market outcomes of 2008/09 leavers This section examines the routes followed by leavers from HEIs 2008/09 follow-up respondents upon completion of their studies, detailing the experiences of employment, further study and unemployment. The labour market information, presented in this section is derived from the activity histories provided by respondents. We display their graduate jobs, the occupational pathways for different subject groups, the use of subject/discipline knowledge gained in higher education and the use of skills learned in higher education. We then turn our attention to the experience of employment and attempt to unravel the factors contributing to graduate satisfaction in these early career profiles. We also provide an insight of the extent of graduate migration between the home nations of the UK using more recent data. Given the recent HE trends, it is interesting to determine the extent to which students in Welsh HEIs were originally domiciled in Wales or whether they have migrated from other parts of the UK to Wales in order to study. Attracting and retaining graduates is crucial for the local regional economy and the research highlights that a region s ability to generate, retain and attract graduate workers is linked to the employment opportunities available relative to other locations. Recent studies by Mosca and Wright (2010) and Bristow et al. (2011) have shown that although the majority of undergraduates stay in their country of domicile to study, there is a considerable amount of movement, particularly so for Wales-domiciled students. Coombes et al. (2003) examine the preferences of graduates from Welsh Higher education institutions when seeking employment and conclude that the most important factors for graduates are job satisfaction and career prospects. Bristow et al. (2011) confirm that Wales low retention rate of home students in 2009/10 was more pronounced when compared to England and Scotland. Using HESA data, Faggian and McCann (2009) also confirm that the retention rate in Wales averages 58% over the period from 1996/97 to 1999/00. Furthermore, Wright (2011) shows that Yorkshire and Humberside, the North East and the East Midlands have experienced an increase in younger graduates as a proportion of their working age populations over the past years, which they suggest was due to the increased public sector demand in these regions. Finally, there is some research which suggests that graduate mobility has changed over time 7 and different graduates have different propensities to migrate. Mosca and Wright (2010) find that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having higher probabilities of migrating to other regions of the UK. Characteristics that appear to be important include class of degree, subject studied, type of institution attended. Student mobility This analysis has been confirmed by Table 5, which reveals a relatively low retention rate in Wales compared to the other home nations. About 65% of Welsh domiciled undergraduate students studied in Wales, whilst 95.2% of English domiciled students studied in England. In terms of absolute flows of students, the outflow of Wales-domiciled students to study in England (17,190) is less than the inflow of English-domiciled students (29,610) coming to Wales to study. 7 See for example, Hoare and Corver (2010).

12 12 Table 5: Distribution of full-time UK domiciled undergraduate students by level of study, region of domicile and region of HE institution, 2011/12 Region of domicile London England (other regions) Region of institution England total Wales Scotland Northern Ireland First degree London England (other regions) England region unknown England total Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Jersey and the Isle of Man UK region unknown First degree total First degree %age of institution region London 51.8% 45.8% 97.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% England (other regions) 8.3% 86.4% 94.7% 3.6% 1.6% 0.1% England region unknown 20.9% 61.4% 82.4% 10.4% 7.2% 0.0% England total 16.7% 78.5% 95.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% Wales 3.6% 30.3% 33.8% 65.4% 0.7% 0.1% Scotland 0.9% 4.1% 5.0% 0.2% 94.8% 0.0% Northern Ireland 1.9% 20.2% 22.2% 1.0% 9.1% 67.7% Jersey and the Isle of Man 7.5% 80.9% 88.4% 5.8% 5.3% 0.5% UK region unknown 31.1% 55.1% 86.2% 4.5% 3.7% 5.6% First degree total 14.2% 67.8% 82.0% 5.7% 9.8% 2.6% Other undergraduate London England (other regions) England region unknown England total Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Jersey and the Isle of Man Other undergraduate total Other undergraduate %age of institution region London 74.2% 25.2% 99.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% England (other regions) 7.6% 91.2% 98.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% England region unknown 48.7% 48.2% 96.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% England total 18.5% 80.3% 98.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Wales 2.4% 18.7% 21.1% 78.8% 0.1% 0.0% Scotland 1.8% 6.4% 8.2% 0.3% 91.5% 0.0% Northern Ireland 7.0% 45.7% 52.7% 2.5% 5.1% 39.7% Jersey and the Isle of Man 18.6% 77.3% 95.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% Other undergraduate total 17.0% 74.1% 91.1% 4.1% 4.5% 0.3% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited, HESA 2013

13 13 Graduate mobility Figures 2 and 3 illustrate that 58% of UK-domiciled postgraduate and 48% of first-degree leavers who studied in Wales HEIs were employed in Wales. It is noted that whilst the Wales retention rate of graduates is lower than the other nation, it is higher than that observed among a majority of English regions, with only London and the North West retaining a higher proportion of undergraduates. In particular, Wales retention rate for First-degree leavers was 48%, three and a half years after graduation, which was higher than most English regions other than the North West (56%) and London (69%). The worst retaining region is actually the East Midlands with a retention rate of 33% (Figure 2). Postgraduates who studied at Welsh HEIs were less likely to remain in Wales for employment when compared to the other UK countries (83% for Scotland, 92% for Northern Ireland, and 96% for England). (Figure 3). Figure 2: %age of UK domiciled First-degree leavers from 2008/09 in employment within the UK regions Northern Ireland Scotland London North West Wales West Midlands East of England South East Yorkshire and The Humber North East South West East Midlands 56% 48% 46% 46% 45% 43% 43% 39% 33% 74% 69% 88% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Figure 3: Proportion of UK domiciled postgraduate leavers 2008/09 in employment within the UK regions Northern Ireland Scotland North West London South East North East South West Wales Yorkshire & The Humber West Midlands East of England East Midlands 43% 71% 69% 62% 60% 58% 58% 54% 53% 51% 83% 92% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited, HESA Note: UK region in employment in November 2012.

14 14 Rees and Taylor (2006) examined the period to , and found that in , 40% of students chose to study outside Wales, but over the longer term there had been an increase in Welsh students studying in Wales. Rees and Taylor (2006) suggest two possible explanations for the increase in Welsh-domiciled students at Welsh HEIs that more students were choosing to live at home possibly to reduce costs, or that there were students entering HE who would not have done so previously and who for cultural, attitudinal or financial reasons preferred to live at home. They concluded that if only Welsh-domiciled students studied in Wales the HE sector would be much smaller. Those who leave Wales and those who enter Wales were both more likely to be from a managerial or professional family background. As more students came from outside than left, this made the HE sector in Wales more middle-class than it would have been otherwise. Rees and Taylor (2006) commented that working class students could be displaced from Welsh HEs if more middle class students stayed in Wales in response to fee and student support changes. Moreover, Welsh-domiciled students are found to be more likely to stay in Wales if there are HEIs in the local area, but nonetheless more likely to study outside Wales if from an urban area (Faggian et al, 2007). Wakeling and Jeffries (2013) found that the absolute numbers of entrants to institutions in England and Wales has remained stable during the period of 2000 to 2010, whereas any growth in enrolments has been accommodated in Wales. In this context, it is worth mentioning the Assembly Learning Grants scheme available in Wales, which was introduced to encourage people aged 19 or over and living in Wales to continue with their education. Students can receive payments of up to 1,500 if they are in full-time education or up to 750 if they are in part-time education. A recent study by Bruce (2012), however, suggests though that Assembly Learning Grants, in the period when they were available (2007 to 2010), did make a difference to mobility by increasing the proportion of Welsh students in Welsh HEIs, and that when these were abolished in 2010, there was a 2.6% increase in applications for study outside Wales. In terms of where students who leave Wales go to study, a large proportion go to post-92 institutions in England (Wakeling and Jeffries, 2013), and students have been found to be more likely to stay in Wales if they are entering a high RAE score university (Faggian et al, 2007). However, Fitz et al. (2005) argue that a substantial proportion of those who leave Wales do enter a prestigious institution and overall the higher their qualification quintile the more likely they are to apply to study in another country (Raffe and Croxford, 2013). It has also been found that students were more likely to leave Wales if they were studying medicine and more likely to stay than leave for other subject areas (Faggian et al, 2007). Using the DLHE Survey data, we find that nearly half of the Welsh domiciled graduates from 2008/09 working in Wales, three and a half years after graduation, had also studied in Welsh HEs. About 12% were returners, who had come back to Wales after studying elsewhere, and 24% of males and 21% of females had left Wales to study elsewhere and remained outside Wales to work. Females appear to be less mobile (Figure 4).

15 15 Figure 4: Typology of graduates mobility (% of those with Welsh connection) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Males Females 10% 0% Stayers Movers Returners Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis. 6. Regional overview of graduate employment The DLHE Survey data also indicates that jobs are not spread equally around the country. There is a perception that all the jobs are in London, which is clearly not the case for the recently Welshdomiciled graduates. London has the largest share of non-welsh domiciled graduates, followed by the South East and North West. The highest is the proportion of graduates who have found employment outside the UK 8 (see Figure 5). 8 In this regard, there has been a steady increase in the number of UK students participating in Erasmus exchanges, in particular the number undertaking work placements. Statistics published in 2013 report the highest number of participants from the UK since the Programme was introduced in 1987 (Newman, 2013).

16 16 Figure 5: Employment of 2008/09 graduates by regions Non-Welsh domiciled leavers Welsh domiciled leavers Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Note: Non-Welsh domiciled leavers include EU and non-eu graduates; Author s analysis. 7. Labour market outcomes This sub-section considers the employment profile of Welsh and non-welsh graduates and compares trends with the rest of the UK. In particular, the analysis focuses on the: Economic activity of graduates in Wales, e.g. whether graduates are employed or unemployed, and the demographic factors that determine graduate employment; Types of jobs graduates enter, including whether graduates in Wales enter higher-level jobs; Occupational and industrial profile of graduate employment in Wales; Employment contract status of Welsh and non-welsh graduates, e.g. degree of self-employment, part-time working and temporary employment; Earnings of graduates in Wales and the extent to which different graduate groups attain a return on their education; Figure 6 illustrates the trends in the main activities of HEIs leavers, collected in the past four Longitudinal Surveys, sourced from the 2013 HESA data. The %age of leavers working (either fulltime paid work including self-employed, part-time paid work, voluntary work or unpaid work) at the survey date has increased slightly from 80.5% for 2002/03 leavers to 81.9% for 2008/09. The 2008/09 %age was still not as high as the 2004/05 %age of 83%%. The proportion of leavers assumed to be unemployed has decreased from 3.5% in 2006/07 to 3.2% in 2008/09. The %age of leavers engaged in further study has gradually increased throughout the years, whilst the proportion of those who work and study decreased.

17 17 Figure 6: Destinations of UK domiciled leavers by all levels of qualification obtained and activity 2002/03, 2004/05, 2006/07 and 2008/09 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 83.0% 81.9% 80.5% 8.8% 6.7% 5.2% 4.9% 5.5% 6.7% 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% Work Work & further study Further study Unemployed 2002/ / / /09 Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited, HESA 2013 Table 6 provides a more complete split of leavers main activity and compares the responses of Welsh-domiciled and non-welsh leavers. There appears to be relatively little difference in the overall activity status of Welsh and non-welsh graduates. The data also presents a positive picture for graduates employment. Around 74% of male Welsh graduates were in full-time employment as compared with 75% of the non-welsh graduate males. Welsh female graduates reported the highest %age working part-time (13%). Females unemployment rate in Wales and outside of Wales were lower than for males. Those in Wales in further study were similar to those outside of Wales.

18 18 Table 6: Activity profile of Welsh and Non-Welsh domiciled graduate leavers 2008/09 Welsh students Non-Welsh Males Females Males Females Full-time paid work Part-time paid work Voluntary/unpaid work only Work and further study Further study only Unemployed Not available for employment Other Total Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Table 7 shows wide variability in full-time employment rate across the local authorities in South West and Central Wales. However, given the small sample sizes, the descriptive should be interpreted with caution. For males the highest employment rate is found in Carmarthenshire (89.8%) with both Swansea and Neath Port Talbot at over 80%, and with lower employment rates found in the rural authorities of Powys, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire. Ceredigion has the lowest employment rate for males (65.6%), but the highest rate for females (83.2%). The data also indicates that there were strong variations in the rate of part-time working female graduates. Women employed in Neath Port Talbot and Ceredigion were less likely to be working part-time than those from the rest of the areas being examined. The highest is the proportion of part-time graduate females employed in Powys (23.9%). Table 7: Activity profile of graduate leavers 2008/09 employed in South West and Central Wales Powys Ceredigion Pembrokeshire Carmarthenshire Swansea Neath Port Talbot Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females Full-time paid work Part-time paid work Unpaid work only Work & further study Other Sample size Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis Graduate employment contracts and employer size To understand graduate experience of work more fully, the next table considers the stability of graduate jobs in terms of their employment contract. About 74% of Welsh domiciled students in employment are reporting they were on a permanent or open ended contract, and only 13% of males and 11% of females were on a one-year fixed term contract. The levels of self-employment were marginally lower among Welsh graduate males than among non- Welsh graduates.

19 19 Table 8: Employment basis of Welsh and Non-Welsh graduate leavers, 2012 Welsh students Non-Welsh Males Females Males Females On a permanent or open-ended contract On a fixed-term contract lasting 12 months On a fixed-term contract lasting less than 1 year Self-employed/freelance Temporarily, through an agency Temporarily, other than through an agency Employed on another basis Setting up own managing your own business Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis. With the growth in graduate labour supply, one of the noticeable trends has been the extent to which small and medium organisations have increasingly recruited graduates. Figure 7 shows a broad overview of the size distribution of the organisations in which the Welsh domiciled students are employed. The figure compares the Welsh domiciled graduates employed in Wales and England. Figure 7: Welsh graduates employed in Wales and England by employer size band, 2012 Employed in Wales Employed in England 24% 19% 1 to to or more 1 to to or more 61% 16% 61% 20% Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis. Nearly two-thirds of graduates in 2012 were employed in large organisations, 24% of those employed in Wales were in small organisations employing less than 50 employees, and 16% were employed in medium organisations 1. Slightly lower is the proportion of young graduates within small organisations employed in England. 9 This compares with an overall graduates employment of 22% in a small employment size and 18% employed in medium organisations.

20 Graduate jobs The occupations in which graduates work have been categorized according to standard occupational classification and shown in Table 9. In Figure 6 we define as high-level occupations those employed in managerial and senior officials, professional occupations and associateprofessional and technical occupations. All other groups (e.g. from skilled trade to elementary occupations) have been classified here as representing other occupations. Although a similar proportion of graduates in Wales and the rest of the UK were working in high-level occupations, there were some differences between Welsh and non-welsh domiciled graduates. Welsh domiciled students working in Wales were more likely to be employed in managerial occupations (7%) as compared to non-welsh graduates (4.4%), and less likely to be employed in professional occupations (47.7%) than their non-welsh counterparts (59.9%). In 2012, the majority of graduates were employed in high-level jobs. Professionals accounted for the highest proportion of graduate employment, followed by associate-professional and technical occupations and other occupations (Figure 8). Table 9: Occupational distribution of employed Welsh and Non-Welsh graduates, %ages The rest of the UK Welsh student Non- Welsh Employed in Wales Welsh student Non- Welsh Managers, directors and senior official Professional occupations Associate professional & technical occupations Administrative and secretarial occupations Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure & other service occupations Sales & customer service occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis.

21 Employed in Wales Employed outside Wales Employed outside Wales Employed in Wales 21 Figure 8: Occupational profile of employed Welsh and non-welsh domiciled graduates, 2012 Non-Welsh Welsh student Non-Welsh Welsh student Other Associate professionals Professionals Managers Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis. Possessing a higher degree increases individuals opportunities to working in higher-level occupations. Figure 8 shows that those with postgraduate level degree were more likely to be employed in higher-level jobs than those who only have first degrees. Overall, 91% of Welshdomiciled postgraduate leavers working in Wales were employed in higher-level jobs, compared to 72% of those who have first-degree or other undergraduate qualifications. Figure 9: Occupational profile of Welsh-domiciled graduates by highest qualification obtained, 2012 First-degree & other Postgraduate First degree & other Postgraduate Others Associate professionals Professionals Managers Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis.

22 22 Table 10 examines the employment profile by age for graduates employed in Wales. Accordingly, the youngest graduates, those aged 18 to 20, were the least likely to work in professional occupations. Furthermore, within the highest-level occupations, graduates aged 21 to 24 were more likely to be working as associate professionals, and less likely to be in managerial occupations than their older counterparts (those aged 30 years and over). Table 10: Occupational profile of graduates employed in Wales by age (%), 2012 %age Age Age Age Age 30 and over Managers, directors and senior official Professional occupations Associate professional & technical occupations Administrative and secretarial occupations Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure & other service occupations Sales & customer service occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis. Finally, female graduates were more likely to work in professional occupations or other occupations than their male counterparts, while male graduates were relatively more likely to work in managerial and associate professional occupations (Figure 10). Among both males and females, the most common occupational group for graduates employed in Wales was professional occupations. Figure 10: Occupational profile of graduates employed in Wales by gender (%), Managers Professionals Associate professionals Others Males Females Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis. Table 11 provides the occupational distribution of graduates employed in South West and Central Wales. Young graduates in Swansea and Ceredigion were more likely to be employed

23 23 in professional occupations. Relatively higher is the %age of graduate males in managerial positions in Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire. Table 11: Occupational profile of graduates employed in South West and Central Wales (%), 2012 Powys Ceredigion Pembrokeshire Carmarthenshire Swansea Neath Port Talbot M F M F M F M F M F M F Managers, directors & senior official Professional occupations Associate professional & technical Administrative and secretarial Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure & other service Sales & customer service occupations Process, plant,machine operatives Elementary occupations Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis 7.3. Industrial sector Another important factor in understanding the nature of graduate jobs is the industrial distribution of employment. In 2012, the industries employing the highest proportion of graduates in Wales were education (27% for Welsh-domiciled student, and 22% for non- Welsh graduates), followed by human health and social work activities (23% and 24%, respectively). Table 12: Industrial profile of graduates employed in Wales (%), 2012 %ages Welsh student Non- Welsh Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas supply Water supply, sewerage Construction Wholesale and retail trade Transport and storage Accommodation and food service activity Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical Administrative and support service activity Public administration and defence Education Human health and social work activities Arts, entertainment and recreation Other service activities Source: DLHE Survey 2008/09. Notes: Author s analysis

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