Higher Education. in the era of globalisation. OECD Japan Seminar Tokyo, 6 February 2013

Transcription

1 1 Advisor of the OECD Secretary-General on Education Policy Deputy Director for Education

2 2 Formal learning Education providers Informal learning Learner Ownership Traditional institutions Innovators Is there no end to the expansion of higher education? Formal learning Who can make a systemic difference to closing skills gaps? Traditional institutions Innovators How successful do institutions engage with evolving learning needs? Four questions Informal learning Can we extend mass education for some to personalised learning for all?

3 3 Formal learning Education providers Informal learning Learner Ownership Traditional institutions Is there no end to the expansion of higher education? Formal learning Traditional institutions How successful do institutions engage with evolving learning needs? Informal learning Innovators Who can make a systemic difference to closing skills gaps? Innovators Can we extend mass education for some to personalised learning for all?

4 4 The composition of the global talent pool has changed Countries share in the population with tertiary education, for and yearold age groups, year-old population year-old population About 39 million people who attained tertiary level About 81 million people who attained tertiary level

5 5 The composition of the global talent pool has changed Countries share in the population with tertiary education, for and yearold age groups year-old population other, 12.9, 1.6 Australia, 1.7 Mexico, 1.8, 1.9, 2.1 Brazil, 3.5, 3.5 Canada, 4.2, 35.8, 5.7 Australia, 1.6 Mexico, 3.9, 2.0, 3.5 Brazil, year-old population other, 14.5, 20.5, 10.9, 5.3, 6.3 China, 6.9, 12.4, 4.1 Canada, 3.1, 4.4 China, 18.3, 3.1

6 6 Current and future stock of high qualifications Proportion of populations with tertiary education and potential growth (2010) Difference between the and yearold populations with tertiary education Lower attainment; catching up Increasing advantage POL FRA High attainment; increasing advantage CHL IRL JPN PRT BEL NLD NOR SVN ESP LUX UKM SVK SWE ITA HUN OECD AUS CAN TUR CZE GRC DNK CHE NZL MEX AUT ISL BRA EST FIN RUS DEU USA ISR Lower attainment; getting High attainment; further behind Higher attainment decreasing advantage KOR Proportion of the year-old population with tertiary education Chart A1.3

7 Australia 7 Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Cost per student Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 A world of change higher education 1995 Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)

8 Australia 8 Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Cost per student Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 A world of change higher education 1995 Graduate supply Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)

9 Australia 9 Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

10 10 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

11 11 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

12 12 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

13 13 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

14 14 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

15 15 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

16 16 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

17 17 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

18 18 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education , Tertiary-type A graduation rate

19 19 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education 2009 U.S. Australia Iceland Australia 5, Tertiary-type A graduation rate

20 20 Australia Belgium Canada Chile Estonia Greece Hungary Iceland Luxembourg Mexico Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Switzerland Turkey Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 A world of change higher education 2009 US 5, Tertiary-type A graduation rate

21 21 Graduation rates from higher education, by gender Tertiary-type A graduation rates (first-time graduation) (2010) % M+W Men Women OECD average M+W Iceland Australia Slovak Republic Portugal OECD average Canada Switzerland Hungary Slovenia Turkey Mexico Saudi Arabia TA3.1

22 22 Evolution in the number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship (2000 to 2010) By region of destination Worldwide In OECD In EU countries In G20 countries In North America Number of foreign students Chart C4.1

23 23 Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of destination (2010) Percentage of foreign tertiary students (reported to the OECD) who are enrolled in each country of destination Other OECD countries 6.4% 1.1% 1.2% Belgium 1.3% Switzerland 1.3% 1.4% South Africa 1.5% 1.7% Other non-oecd countries 15.5% 16.6% 13% Australia 6.6% 1.7% 1.7% 6.4% China 1.8% Chart C % 3.4% Russian Federation 3.9% Canada 4.7% 6.3%

24 24 Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by continent of origin (2010) Total from Latin America and the Caribbean 6.2% Total from Africa 11.8% Not specified 3.2% Total from North America 2.7% Total from Oceania 1% Total from Asia 52.5% Total from Europe 22.7% Chart C4.5

25 25 Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of origin (2010) Other non-oecd non-g20 countries 46.7% Other non-oecd G20 countries 1.3% China 17% India 5.9% 3.7% 3% 1.6% Russian Federation 1.6% 1.4% Turkey 1.4% Canada 1.3% Other OECD countries 9.6% Saudi Arabia 1.3% 1.2% T C % Indonesia 1.1% 1.1%

26 26 Trends in international education market shares Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled, by destination Market share (%) Australia Canada Russian Federation China Other G20 and non-oecd countries refers to the portion of total foreign students studying in other G20 and non-oecd countries and is obtained after subtracting China, South Africa and the Russian Federation from the total in non-oecd destinations, as estimated from UNESCO data. South Africa Belgium Switzerland Other OECD Other G20 and non-oecd

27 27 Will we one day all have a university degree and work for the minimum wage? A growing educational divide

28 28 Positive relationship between education and employment Percentage of year-olds in employment, by level of education (2010) % Tertiary education Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary Below upper secondary Iceland Switzerland Slovenia Brazil Portugal Luxembourg Australia Belgium OECD average Slovak Republic Canada Mexico Estonia Greece Chile Hungary Turkey Chart A7.1

29 29 The value of higher education for a man Components of the private net present value of higher education for a man (2008 or latest available year) Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect Social contribution effect Transfers effect Gross earnings benefits Unemployment effect Grants effect Portugal Slovenia Slovak Republic Hungary OECD average Canada Belgium Australia Estonia Turkey $74,213 $64,177 $249,679 $230,630 $225,663 $225,048 $223,821 $208,883 $208,386 $189,766 $161,625 $159,950 $153,520 $155,346 $145,886 $145,608 $144,682 $143,582 $143,394 $143,018 $116,225 $115,287 $102,975 $82,076 $52,471 $61,454 $56,369 $373,851 $329,552 Net present value in USD equivalent Chart A , , , , , ,000 USD equivalent

30 30 The value of higher education for a woman Components of the private net present value of higher education for a woman (2008 or latest available year) Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax Social contributions Transfers Gross earnings benefits Unemployment effect Portugal Slovenia Slovak Republic Canada OECD average Hungary Belgium Turkey Estonia $210,968 $168,264 $145,920 $164,087 $167,020 $140,864 $139,293 $139,104 $132,044 $129,323 $111,487 $118,179 $110,430 $109,553 $104,812 $102,742 $96,336 $100,806 $101,581 $80,466 $83,518 $85,314 $47,125 $77,046 $77,652 $46,432 $39,616 $31,918 Net present value in USD equivalent T A , , , , , ,000 USD equivalent

31 31 Public cost and benefits of higher education For a man obtaining tertiary education (2008 or latest available year) In equivalent USD Public benefits Public costs Hungary Belgium Slovenia OECD average Australia Portugal Canada Slovak Republic Turkey Estonia $21,724 $4,587 $58,159 $55,367 $55,318 43,419 $33,912 $25,591 $172,602 $168,693 $166,477 $156,125 $155,664 $133,560 $132,103 $118,266 $115,790 $107,436 $101,116 $95,947 $93,236 $89,464 $86,550 $81,545 $67,411 $66,845 $38,421 Net present value $254,984 $232,779 Chart A , , , , , ,000

32 32 Consumption or economic use?

33 ae Skills acquisition and use, year-olds with a tertiary education (2009) Employment rate of population with tertiary education, % Brazil Turkey Portugal Slovak Republic Mexico Hungary Chile Switzerland Slovenia Iceland Greece Luxembourg Australia Belgium OECD Average Estonia Canada Proportion of population with tertiary education, % Chart A7.3

34 スライド 33 ae364 EAG 2011: chart A7.3 OK albiser_e, 2011/08/29

35 34 Average GDP growth (real percentage change from the previous year) and labour income growth in GDP, by educational categories Countries with at least five years of growth estimates by educational categories; GDP growth estimates are matched with years of education growth estimates ( ) 5% 4% 3% 2% GDP Growth ISCED 5B/5A/6 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 0/1/2 1% 0% -1% Canada Country average Switzerland Hungary Chart A10.1

36 35 Change in annual labour-income growth in GDP, by educational categories during the crisis 2009 GDP growth shown next to country names 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% ISCED 5B/5A/6 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 0/1/2-4% -5% -6%, -1.7% Chart A10.2 Slovak Republic, -4.8% Switzerland, -1.9% Canada, -2.8%, 0.3%, -4.9%, -2.7%, -4.1%, -3.9% OECD average, -3.8%, -5.2%, -4.7%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -8.2%, -5.3% Estonia, -13.9% Hungary, -6.7%, 0.8%, -3.5%, -7.6%

37 36 Can we ensure sustainable financing? Who should pay for what, when and how?

38 37 Changes in tertiary students and expenditure Index of change between 2000 and 2009 (2000=100, 2009 constant prices) Index of change (2000 = 100) Estonia Portugal Change in expenditure Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents) Change in expenditure per student Mexico OECD average Belgium Slovak Republic Hungary Brazil Iceland Switzerland

39 38 Share of private expenditure on tertiary educational institutions (2000, 2005, 2009) % Chile Australia Canada Russian Federation Mexico OECD average Slovak Republic Portugal Estonia Argentina Slovenia Belgium Iceland Chart B3.3

40 39 London, 10 September 2012 Education at a Glance 2012 Average tuition fees charged by public institutions in USD Average tuition fees and proportion of students who benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year , national full-time students Group 3: Extensive and broadly uniform cost sharing across students, student support systems somewhat less developed. Group 4: Relatively low financial barriers to entry to tertiary education and relatively low support Switzerland Belgium (Fr.) Mexico Belgium (Fl.) Group 2: Potentially high financial barriers for entry to tertiary-type A education, but also strong student support. Group 1: No (or low) financial barriers for tertiary studies due to tuition fees and a high level of student aid. Iceland Bubble size shows graduation rates Australia Chart B5.1 % of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants

41 40 London, 10 September 2012 Education at a Glance 2012 Average tuition fees charged by public institutions in USD Average tuition fees and proportion of students who benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year , national full-time students Switzerland Belgium (Fr.) Belgium (Fl.) 0 Mexico Iceland Australia Chart B5.1 % of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants

42 41 Public support for education in tertiary education Public support for education to households and other private entities as a percentage of total public expenditure on education, by type of support (2009) % of total public expenditure on education Student loans Transfers and payments to other private entities Scholarships/ other grants to households OECD average Chart B5.3 Chile Slovenia Slovak Republic Portugal Hungary Belgium Australia Switzerland Brazil Estonia Canada Mexico Indonesia Argentina Iceland

43 42 Formal learning Education providers Informal learning Learner Ownership Traditional institutions Is there no end to the expansion of higher education? Formal learning Educational institutions How successful do institutions engage with evolving learning needs? Informal learning Innovators Who can make a systemic difference to closing skills gaps? Innovators Can we extend mass education for some to personalised learning for all?

44 43 The qualifications we obtained don t always equate to the skills we have... because we continue to learn after obtaining a degree and because we lose skills that we do not use

45 Higher education and skills Interquartile range in skill distribution by educational qualification Skill score Not completed school Upper secondary University Not completed school Upper secondary University Not completed school Upper secondary University Country A Country B Country C

46 45 Learning beyond institutions Cross-sectional skill-age profiles for youths by education and work status Mean skill score Youth in education 線形 (In education only) 線形 (Work only) Youth in education and work Youth in work Not in education, not in work Age 線形 (In education and work) 線形 (NEET)