Economic Implications of Improved Schooling
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1 Economic Implications of Improved Schooling Ei Eric A. Hanushek Hoover Institution Stanford University Congressional Briefing U.S. Capitol January 2012
2 Conclusions U.S. scores on international assessments portend bleak future - Not a few bad states - Not a difficult to educate population Very different futures for United States Current recession costs dwarfed by schooling crisis Easy to ignore, hard to recover
3 International Math Rankings PISA 2009 PISA Math Performance 2009 Shanghai- Hong United Dubai T rinidad Albaniaa Tunisia aa Indonesia Qatar Peru Panam a Kyrgyzstan Singapore - Kong Korea Chinese ed Finland Liechtensteinn Switzerland Japan na Canada Netherlands a Macao-Chin New Belgium ma Australia Germany Estonia Iceland k Denmar Slovenia Norway France ek Slovak Austria Poland Sweden Czech hd United Hungary Luxembourg States Ireland Portugal Spain Latvia Italy Lithuaniaa Russian ne Greece Croatiaa (UAE) Israel Turkey Serbia Azerbaijan Bulgaria aa Romani Uruguay Chile Thailand Mexico and Kazakhstan Montenegroo Argentina Jordan nil Braz Colombia
4 Cognitive Skills and Economic Growth
5 Secondary School Completion Secondary School Completion Rates Ireland Japan Finland Korea Greece Norway United Kingdom Switz itzerland Israel Iceland Czech Republic Slovenia Italy EU19 a average Denmark Poland Slovak Republic OECD Daverage Hungary New wzealand United States Sweden Canada Spain Luxem embourg Chile Portugal Mexico Turkey Germany Ge Percent
6 Years of Schooling and Economic Growth With quality control Without quality control
7 Projections of Value of Improved Schooling Assume future looks like past Improve schools over 20 years Calculate added GDP based on history Discount future over lifetime of somebody born today
8 Scenario 1 Growth Projections - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.)
9 60% Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement (1/4 std. dev.) 50% ition to annual GDP Percent addi 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Year
10 Scenario 1 Growth Projections - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) - PV = 288% of current GDP - $44 trillion for United States
11 Growth Projections Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) Scenario 2 - U.S. achieves at level l of Finland - PV = 737% of current GDP in United States - $112 trillion for United States
12 Growth Projections Scenario 1 - Achievement improves by 25 points (1/4 s.d.) Scenario 2 - U.S. achieves at level l of Finland Scenario 3 - All students to 400 points (basic skills) [19% in U.S.] - PV = 567% of current GDP in United States - $86 trillion for United States
13 Math League Tables % proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard) - 32 nd out of 65 countries
14 Proficient in Math PISA 2009
15 Math League Tables % proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard) - 32 nd out of 65 countries Massachusetts significantly outperformed by 6 Minnesota significantly outperformed by 11
16 California competes with...
17 California competes with...
18 Math League Tables % proficient in U.S. (NAEP standard) - 32 nd out of 65 countries Massachusetts significantly outperformed by 6 Minnesota significantly outperformed by 11 California significantly outperformed by 36
19 Observations Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate White students
20 White Students in US vs All Internationally
21 Observations Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate White students - 42% proficient; 17 th in comparison to all in other countries College educated parents
22 Students in US with College Educated Parent vs All Internationally
23 Observations Not U.S. having especially difficult to educate White students - 42% proficient; 17 th in comparison to all in other countries College educated parents - 44% proficient; 16 th in comparison to all in other countries
24 First in the World by 2000 pe ercent additions to GDP 40% 30% 20% 10% Success by 2000 Success by 2010 Total K-12 spending 0% year 10-year reform 20-year reform Total U.S. K-12 spending
25 Conclusions U.S. scores on international assessments portend bleak future - Not a few bad states - Not a difficult to educate population Very different futures for United States Current recession costs dwarfed by schooling crisis Easy to ignore, hard to recover
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