institute for higher education leadership & policy Aver age Won t Do: Performance Trends in California Higher Education as a Foundation for Action

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1 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy Aver age Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio Collee Moore Coie Ta Nacy Shulock Jauary 2014 Califoria State Uiversity, Sacrameto Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy 6000 J Street, Tahoe Hall 3063 Sacrameto, CA T (916) F (916)

2 Executive Summary The Case has Bee Made Now What? Califoria s public colleges ad uiversities are beefittig from the passage of Propositio 30 i 2012, which provides for temporary tax icreases through 2018 to help preserve educatio fudig, ad will likely beefit from icreasig state reveues. While additioal fudig will allow the three public postsecodary systems (Uiversity of Califoria, Califoria State Uiversity, ad Califoria Commuity Colleges) to icrease class offerigs ad expad programs ad services, more tha additioal moey is eeded to meet the immese challeges facig Califoria postsecodary educatio. Repeated calls have bee issued for Califoria policymakers ad educators to take actio to eroll ad graduate substatially more Califorias to meet the eeds for a educated citizery ad competitive workforce. 1 The latest two of these calls were i October ad November, Both of these ew reports stress the urgecy of improvig postsecodary attaimet i Califoria ad the sad fact that Califoria is laggig i iovatio to address its educatioal challeges. Yet Califoria postsecodary educatio cotiues to operate without effective state-level plaig ad coordiatio to heed those calls. Now we ca add to that list the lack of data o which to base state-level plaig ad coordiatio. With the de-fudig of the Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio i 2011, there is o loger publicly available data o curret patters of studet erollmet ad progressio from high schools to ad across colleges ad uiversities that would help families, educators, policymakers, ad other iterested stakeholders determie how best to improve postsecodary studet success. This report is part of a larger effort to begi to move ito a actio phase (see box o this page), ow that the case for chage is so well documeted. Here we provide a update (the fifth i a series - see box o page iii) of Califoria s treds i six performace categories that have become stadard measures of a state s postsecodary performace. Over the te years that the Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy (IHELP) Category Curret Performace 10-year Tred Preparatio Affordability Participatio Completio Beefits Fiace Worse tha most states Average Better tha most states Average Better tha most states Average has bee trackig these measures, there has bee improvemet i oly oe area the preparatio of high school studets for college ad Califoria is still worse tha most states i that category. Usig this report as a baselie, we will develop a model public ageda for Califoria postsecodary educatio, drawig o lessos from the may states that have developed goals, plas, ad strategies to meet their eeds. If the model public ageda is effective i egagig public stakeholders to reach cosesus about how public postsecodary educatio ca best meet the eeds of Califorias, the remaiig missig pieces will be the leadership ad the ifrastructure to implemet ad sustai ew iitiatives. To that ed, we will produce case studies of effective state-level policy leadership for postsecodary educatio i other states that are applicable to the kids of state-level actios eeded i Califoria. A Three-part Project to Address Postsecodary Performace i Califoria Part I: Baselie performace data (this report) Part II: A model public ageda for stakeholder discussio Part III: Case studies of state-level leadership i public postsecodary educatio I istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

3 Outlie of Report Iteded as a resource for those iterested i improvig the umbers of Califorias who ear postsecodary credetials of value from our public colleges ad uiversities, this report icludes: 3 a assessmet of Califoria s overall performace i each of six categories, based o data gathered by the Natioal Ceter for Higher Educatio Maagemet Systems 3 aalyses of data from other sources that allow for a breakdow of performace by regio 2 ad race/ ethicity, i order to focus attetio o the key variatios that warrat policy attetio 3 a summary of treds i each performace area over approximately the past decade 3 appedices to assist those with a iterest i the details of the computatios, icludig our methodology for determiig Califoria s relative performace amog the states. Key Fidigs by Category While still performig worse tha most states o atioal measures, state data show improvemet i the area of preparig K-12 studets for higher educatio. While that improvemet exteds to the uder-represeted miority populatios whose college preparatio has lagged, substatial disparities persist. Califoria rates about average amog the states o affordability, but substatial icreases i tuitio that have accompaied budget cuts i recet years have made it icreasigly challegig for Califoria s studets ad families to pay for college. Califoria s college participatio rates are comparatively high, but the rate at which high school graduates go directly to college has declied i recet years related to substatial cuts i the budgets of state colleges ad uiversities. Califoria s performace o college completio is about average. The state has comparatively high graduatio rates for full-time studets, but performs poorly o the umber of certificates ad degrees awarded i relatio to erollmet at commuity colleges. Califoria experieces better tha average public beefits from higher educatio, particularly i the form of a higher earigs premium for idividuals with college degrees. However, while the share of the workig-age populatio with a bachelor s degree is higher tha i may states, Califoria s relative positio is decliig as its rak falls with each successively youger age group i the workig-age populatio. Califoria s state ad local appropriatios per fulltime equivalet studet (FTES) for higher educatio are slightly above average, but the state raks ear the bottom i total reveue per FTES due to collectig less tha half the atioal average i tuitio/fee reveue. Across all categories for which data permit regioal ad racial/ethic breakdows, there are sigificat disparities that threate future competitiveess. Black ad Latio studets cotiue to lag behid white ad Asia studets i levels of college preparatio, participatio, ad completio, ad the growig ilad areas of the state geerally lag the more urba coastal commuities. Coclusios Califoria has much work to do to improve public postsecodary outcomes. Despite havig istitutios that are the evy of may, collectively our system of postsecodary educatio is oly about average, with these aggregate ratigs maskig serious differeces across regios of the state ad across racial/ethic populatios. However well itetioed, calls to fud, restore, or revise the Master Pla are ot helpful. The Master Pla is, first ad foremost, about preservig istitutios as those istitutios attempt to fulfill their historically-defied missios. A public ageda, by cotrast, is about servig the eeds of the public to gai the educatio ad traiig eeded to thrive i today s society ad ecoomy. Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio II

4 Executive Summary A public ageda stads a much better chace of addressig the critical issues facig us today, such as the implemetatio of the Commo Core State Stadards to improve college ad career readiess ad success; the eed for a ratioal affordability policy addressig tuitio ad fiacial aid i a coheret maer across the state s regios ad istitutios; educatig large populatios of workigage adults who lack postsecodary credetials of value i today s ecoomy; ad addressig the usustaiable gaps across populatios i educatio levels. All of these issues, ad other pressig issues facig postsecodary educatio, spa istitutioal missios ad may require us to thik outside the istitutioal structures defied by the Master Pla. The alarmig declie i the availability of data, followig the cessatio of data collectio efforts by the defuct Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, will leave the public without the data eeded for iformed state-level plaig for public postsecodary educatio. Take a hard look at the data i this report because this is likely the last time that we will be able to provide a full accoutig of these treds. With these ad other data, the case has bee idisputably made that lettig preset treds cotiue should ot be a optio. Yet Califoria lacks the mechaisms for takig collective ad decisive actio to reverse the bad treds ad accelerate the good oes. This report is the first phase of a threepart project iteded to help spur actio to improve performace. The ext phases of this project are to (1) set forth a model public ageda for stakeholder cosideratio ad (2) illustrate the kids of state-level leadership beig exercised i other states to try to improve postsecodary performace. About this Report Series: This is the fifth i a series of reports IHELP has doe aalyzig the state of higher educatio i Califoria. A set of reports titled The Grades are I (published i 2004, 2006, ad 2008) followed the publicatio by the Natioal Ceter for Public Policy ad Higher Educatio of its bi-aual Measurig Up report gradig the 50 states o the performace of their higher educatio systems. 3 The Grades are I reports explored Califoria s grades i more depth ad provided additioal aalyses of performace by regio ad by race/ethicity. The Natioal Ceter closed, but IHELP issued a report i 2010 titled Cosequeces of Neglect that used other available data to rate the performace of Califoria higher educatio i a atioal cotext, ad updated the prior aalyses of variatios across regios ad groups withi the state. 4 This report updates the aalyses agai, as the foudatio for a upcomig report that will propose a framework for a public ageda for higher educatio i Califoria, to be published early ext year. Methods: We examie Califoria s performace i six categories: preparatio, participatio, affordability, completio, beefits, ad fiace. We use data from the Natioal Ceter for Higher Educatio Maagemet Systems (NCHEMS) Iformatio Ceter for Higher Educatio Policymakig ad Aalysis to calculate Califoria s performace relative to other states. We did ot perform similar computatios for the other 49 states; therefore, we caot cite top-performig states i each broad category or Califoria s specific placemet amog states (i some cases, we ote the state s rak for idividual measures withi a category). I additio to the state-level measures from NCHEMS, we use other sources of data to aalyze performace by regio ad by race/ ethicity, ad to assess treds over time. (See Appedices for more details about methodology.) III istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

5 How is Califoria Performig? Preparatio Preparatio: Worse tha Most States + Califoria raks 10th i the umber of AP scores at 3 or above per 1,000 juiors/seiors. Califoria s high school graduatio rate is 68%, rakig 37th amog the states. Califoria raks o better tha 39th i percet of 8th graders who score at or above the proficiet level o the Natioal Assessmet of Educatioal Progress. Califoria performs worse tha most states i terms of academic preparatio for college. The state is farig better tha most i the umber of Advaced Placemet (AP) test scores at 3 or above (the score eeded to receive college credit), rakig 10th o that measure. But, while AP studets are relatively well prepared, other idicators of preparatio suggest sigificat problems with preparatio levels amog the majority of studets. I particular, the percet of 8th graders scorig at or above the proficiecy level o the Natioal Assessmet of Educatioal Progress (NAEP) stadardized tests is low, such that 25% or fewer 8th graders scored at or above proficiecy o each of the four subjects ad the state raks ear the bottom o all sectios of the NAEP. Califoria s high school graduatio rate is low compared to other states, with a third of 9th graders failig to complete high school i four years. Key Fidigs: Regioal Differeces Proficiecy i math ad laguage arts amog 8th graders, as measured by the Califoria Stadards Tests (CST), varies cosiderably across regios (Table 1). The rate of proficiecy i math amog 8th graders rages from 56% i Orage Couty to about 37% i the Moterey Bay regio ad the North Sa Joaqui Valley. Over 60% of 8th graders are proficiet i laguage arts i Orage Couty ad Superior Califoria, while 47% of 8th graders i the South Sa Joaqui Valley are proficiet. Differeces i the umber of high scores o Advaced Placemet (AP) ad college etrace exams reflect variatio i both the share of studets takig the tests ad the performace of the test-takers (Table 1). The umber of SAT test-takers as a share of high school seiors was 40% or more i the Sa Fracisco Bay area ad Orage ad Los Ageles Couties. I cotrast, less tha oe-quarter of seiors i Superior Califoria ad the Iyo-Moo regio took the SAT. Similarly, the umber of studets takig AP exams as a proportio of 11th ad 12th grade erollmet was over oe-third i the Sa Fracisco Bay area, Orage Couty, ad the Sa Diego/Imperial regio, while it was oly eight percet i the Iyo-Moo regio. High schools i some regios are better able to provide studets with a more rigorous set of courses to prepare them for college (Figure 1). Erollmet i advaced sciece courses (defied as chemistry, physics ad ay AP sciece course) as a share of 11th ad 12th grade studets varies sigificatly across regios, ragig from 12% i the Iyo-Moo regio ad 19% i South Sa Joaqui Valley to about 60% i the Sa Fracisco Bay area. Erollmet i advaced math courses (beyod Algebra II) is lower i most regios, ragig from 13% i the South Sa Joaqui Valley to about 36% i Orage Couty. Less tha oe quarter of high school graduates i the Superior Califoria, Upper Sacrameto Valley ad Iyo-Moo regios complete the collegepreparatory curriculum required for etry to the state s public uiversities (kow as the a-g courses), while 40% or more of graduates i Los Ageles ad Orage Couties, the Sa Diego-Imperial regio, ad the Sa Fracisco Bay complete that set of courses Twety-three percet of Califoria 11th graders participatig i the Califoria State Uiversity s (CSU) Early Assessmet Program (EAP) 5 demostrated readiess for college i Eglish ad aother 15% were coditioally ready (Figure 2), while 14% demostrated readiess for college-level math ad aother 41% were coditioally ready (Figure 3). 6 Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 1

6 How is Califoria Performig? Preparatio Readiess i Eglish (icludig coditioal) varied from 30% i the Sa Joaqui Valley to 48% i Orage Couty, ad math readiess (icludig coditioal) varied from 49% i the Moterey Bay ad Iyo-Moo regios to 67% i Orage Couty. A larger share of Califoria juiors participated i the Eglish EAP (80%) tha the math (44%). All juiors are eligible to take the Eglish EAP exam while oly those erolled i a math class at the level of Itermediate Algebra or higher ca take the math exam. The share of juiors takig the math exam varied substatially across regios, from 16% i the Iyo-Moo regio to 52% i Orage Couty. Most regios had more tha threequarters of juiors takig the Eglish exam, although it was oly about oe-third i the Iyo-Moo regio ad two-thirds i the North Coast regio. Table 1 K-12 Preparatio Measures by Regio Regio Share of 8th Graders at or Above Proficiet i Math, 2013 Share of 8th Graders at or Above Proficiet i Laguage Arts, 2013 Number of AP Scores >=3 per 1,000 11th ad 12th Graders, 2012 Number of Scores o SAT >=1500 ad o ACT >=21 per 1,000 HS Seiors, 2012 Orage Couty 56% 66% Superior Califoria 51% 62% Iyo-Moo 49% 51% Cetral Coast 48% 58% Sa Fracisco Bay 47% 62% Sa Diego/Imperial 45% 62% Sacrameto-Tahoe 43% 60% Los Ageles Couty 42% 53% Upper Sacrameto Valley 41% 52% North Coast 39% 51% South Sa Joaqui Valley 38% 47% Ilad Empire 38% 55% North Sa Joaqui Valley 37% 50% Moterey Bay 37% 50% Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( 2 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

7 Figure 1 Erollmet i College Preparatory Courses by Regio Share of HS Grads Completig A-G, 2012 Erollmet i Advaced Math Courses as a Share of 11th-12th Grade Erollmet, Erollmet i Advaced Sciece Courses as a Share of 11th-12th Grade Erollmet, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Sa Fracisco Bay 26% 46% 60% Orage Couty 36% 43% 52% Sa Diego/Imperial 26% 42% 45% Los Ageles Couty 24% 40% 52% Sacrameto-Tahoe 22% 31% 39% Moterey Bay 19% 38% 44% Cetral Coast 17% 34% 36% North Sa Joaqui Valley 22% 32% 35% Ilad Empire 32% 28% 36% South Sa Joaqui Valley 13% 19% 29% North Coast 16% 26% 32% Upper Sacrameto Valley 21% 24% 30% Superior Califoria Iyo-Moo 23% 18% 14% 19% 12% 28% Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 3

8 How is Califoria Performig? Preparatio Figure 2 Share of 11th Graders Demostratig Readiess for College i Eglish (Early Assessmet Program, 2013) Ready Ready - Coditioal 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Orage Couty 31% 17% Sa Fracisco Bay 30% 15% Cetral Coast Sacrameto-Tahoe Sa Diego/Imperial 26% 24% 24% 15% 16% 16% Superior Califoria North Coast Los Ageles Couty Upper Sacrameto Valley Moterey Bay Ilad Empire Iyo-Moo North Sa Joaqui Valley South Sa Joaqui Valley 20% 20% 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 13% 14% 15% 14% 14% Source: Califoria State Uiversity, EAP 2013 Test Results ( 4 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

9 Figure 3 Share of 11th Graders Demostratig Readiess for College i Math (Early Assessmet Program, 2013) Ready Ready - Coditioal 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Orage Couty Sa Fracisco Bay 22% 21% 44% 45% Cetral Coast 15% 34% Sacrameto-Tahoe 15% 50% Sa Diego/Imperial Superior Califoria 14% 13% 47% 50% North Coast 13% 44% Los Ageles Couty 10% 50% Upper Sacrameto Valley 10% 53% Moterey Bay Ilad Empire 9% 9% 48% 49% Iyo-Moo North Sa Joaqui Valley 8% 8% 46% 47% South Sa Joaqui Valley 7% 43% Source: Califoria State Uiversity, EAP 2013 Test Results ( Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 5

10 How is Califoria Performig? Preparatio Key Fidigs: Racial/Ethic Differeces Asia 7 ad white 8th grade studets are substatially more likely to be proficiet i math ad laguage arts tha are black ad Latio studets (Figure 4). Black ad Latio studets are substatially less likely tha white studets to complete the series of courses required for admissio to the state s public uiversities (Figure 5), ad are less tha half as likely to do so as Asia studets. The umber of passig scores o AP exams per 1,000 juiors ad seiors varies substatially by race, at 199 for Asia studets, 107 for white studets, 68 for Latio studets, ad 31 for black studets. The variatio i this measure partly reflects the differece i the proportio of studets i each racial group that eroll i AP courses ad take the exams. Amog 2012 high school graduates i Califoria, 59% of Asia graduates had erolled i a AP course durig high school compared to 32% of white graduates, 28% of Latio graduates, ad 20% of black graduates. 8 Asia ad white studets ted to score higher o stadardized college etrace exams. I 2012, the average total SAT score was 1,636 for white studets ad 1,627 for Asia studets, compared to scores of 1,339 for Latio studets ad 1,324 for black studets. 9 Black ad Latio studets are less likely to participate i the Early Assessmet Program, especially i math. Amog 11th graders, oly 27% of black studets took the math EAP exam, far lower tha the 70% of Asia studets who took the test. The shares of Latio ad white studets takig the math EAP were 39% ad 44%, respectively. Differeces i the likelihood of takig the exam were related to differeces i the share of studets erolled i the level of math course that qualifies them to participate. Disparities i takig the Eglish exam are somewhat less stark, with 62% of black studets, 81% of Latios, 75% of white studets, ad 92% of Asia studets participatig. Amog high school juiors who take the EAP exams, black ad Latio studets are substatially less likely to be foud ready for college (Figure 6). Figure 4 8th Grade Proficiecy o the Califoria Stadards Tests, 2013 Laguage Arts Math 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Asia/Pacific Islader 69% 76% White 55% 74% Hispaic or Latio 34% 44% Black 28% 43% All Studets 43% 57% Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( 6 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

11 Figure 5 Share of High School Graduates Completig A-G Curriculum, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Asia/Pacific Islader 62% White 45% Hispaic or Latio 28% Black 29% All Studets 38% Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( Figure 6 College Readiess of 11th Graders as Idicated by the Early Assessmet Program (EAP) Exam, 2013 Ready Ready - Coditioal 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 49% 51% 46% 17% 18% 42% 39% 36% 15% 34% 31% 13% 11% 23% 17% 12% 6% 12% 14% 4% Eglish Math Eglish Math Eglish Math Eglish Math Eglish Math Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All Studets Takig EAP Source: Califoria State Uiversity, EAP 2013 Test Results ( Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 7

12 How is Califoria Performig? Preparatio Performace Treds The share of 8th graders scorig at or above the proficiet level i math o the CST exam has icreased from 28% i 2004 to 43% i Studets of all racial/ethic groups improved their performace (Figure 7), but substatial disparities remai betwee white ad Asia studets o the oe had ad black ad Latio studets o the other. Math proficiecy improved i all regios of the state, with icreases of early 20 percetage poits i the Superior Califoria regio, the South Sa Joaqui Valley, ad Los Ageles Couty. The share of Califoria 8th graders proficiet i laguage arts icreased by more tha 20 percetage poits, from 33% i 2004 to 57% i 2013 (Figure 8). The rate of proficiecy more tha doubled for black ad Latio studets, but a disparity with white ad Asia studets of about 30 percetage poits remais. Laguage arts proficiecy icreased substatially i all regios of the state. Overall, scores o the CST exams for studets i all grades declied slightly betwee 2012 ad 2013, by a average of less tha oe percetage poit, a result the state s Superitedet of Public Istructio has attributed to the impact of budget cuts ad teacher layoffs i recet years. 10 The loger-term tred remais positive. The CST exams will o loger be give after 2013, as the state switches to ew assessmet tests as part of implemetig the Commo Core State Stadards. The share of high school graduates completig the a-g curriculum has icreased from 33% i 2004 to 38% i 2013 (Figure 9). There were icreases across all racial/ ethic groups, but sigificat disparities remai, with oly 28% of graduates completig the a-g curriculum i the fast-growig Latio populatio that ow represets a majority (52.7%) of studets i Califoria s K-12 schools. The chages varied across regios, with Superior Califoria ad the Upper Sacrameto Valley regios actually showig declies. The share of graduates completig a-g icreased by betwee two ad ie percetage poits i most other regios. The share of high school juiors participatig i the Early Assessmet Program cotiues to icrease. Betwee 2006 ad 2013, the share of juiors takig the Eglish exam rose from 67% to early 80% ad the share takig the math exam icreased from 29% to 44%. The share meetig college readiess stadards i Eglish icreased from 15% i 2006 to 23% i 2013 (Figure 10), with aother 15% determied to be coditioally ready. Readiess for Eglish icreased amog all racial/ethic groups ad all regios. The share determied to be ready for college math icreased by a smaller amout, from about 12% to 15%, with the share coditioally ready icreasig from 43% to 46% (Figure 11). Readiess for math icreased amog all racial/ethic groups, although the icrease for black studets was primarily i the share deemed coditioally ready. 8 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

13 Figure 7 Treds i Math Proficiecy of 8th Graders o the Califoria Stadards Tests Percet at or above Proficiet 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 62% 66% 69% 58% 50% % 53% 55% 47% 41% 30% 34% 15% 21%26% 25% 28% 22% 18% 12% 33% 28% 37% 40% 43% Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All 8th Graders Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( Figure 8 Treds i Laguage Arts Proficiecy of 8th Graders o the Califoria Stadards Tests Percet at or above Proficiet 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 66% 74% 76% 71% 74% 59% 62% 63% 50% 51% 40% 44% 40% 41% 45% 53% 57% 43% 25% 31% 33% 27% 32% 18% 19% Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All 8th Graders Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 9

14 How is Califoria Performig? Preparatio Figure 9 Tred i High School Graduates Completig A-G Courses % 90% Percet Completig A-G 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 52% 54% 55% 55% 62% 45% 39% 41% 39% 41% 21% 24% 25% 26% 28% 24% 25% 26% 27% 29% 33% 35% 35% 35% 38% 10% 0% Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All Graduates Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio, Dataquest ( Figure 10 Tred i Percet of Tested 11th Graders Meetig College Readiess Stadards i Eglish based o Early Assessmet Program (EAP) Ready Ready - Coditioal Percet College Ready 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17% 24% 28% 34% 39% 23% 26% 32% 18% 34% 6% 8% 10% 13% 7% 8% 12% 10% 11% 12% % 17% 21% 15% 23% Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All Juiors Takig EAP Source: Califoria State Uiversity, EAP Test Results; ote that ready-coditioal status for Eglish was ot used i the earlier years 10 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

15 Figure 11 Tred i Percet of Tested 11th Graders Meetig College Readiess Stadard i Math based o Early Assessmet Program (EAP) Ready Ready - Coditioal 100% 90% Percet College Ready 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 48% 22% 49% 48% 46% 31% 29% 26% 50% 49% 48% 51% 36% 42% 34% 33% 32% 30% 27% 36% 43% 42% 42% 46% 10% 17% 17% 13% 15% 12% 13% 15% 15% 0% 3% 5% 6% 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All Juiors Takig EAP Source: Califoria State Uiversity, EAP Test Results Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 11

16 How is Califoria Performig? Affordability Affordability: Average + Califoria raks 14th o state grat aid targeted to low-icome families as a share of Pell grat aid. + Califoria has oe of the lowest average loa amouts studets borrow each year. The state raked 17th o the percet of family icome to pay for public 4-year college (icludig room ad board). The state performs poorly compared to other states o the share of family icome eeded to pay for public two-year college, as the higher cost of room ad board brigs the total cost of attedace to equal a higher share of family icome. Califoria s performace o affordability is average compared to other states. Califoria performs fairly well i terms of state grat aid targeted to low-icome families as a share of Pell grat aid. The state also performs well i terms of studet loas, i that studets borrow amog the lowest amouts each year. However, the state s performace is worse o measures of affordability that iclude cost of room ad board. The cost of attedig a public two-year college is more expesive tha i most states after takig livig costs ito accout, while the cost of attedig a public four-year college is average. Performace Treds While most states have icreased tuitio/fees substatially i recet years, Califoria s icreases have substatially exceeded the atioal average rate of icrease (Table 2). The average total tuitio ad fees paid by residet udergraduate studets at UC ad CSU icreased by approximately 150% sice Tuitio/fees icreased from $5,530 to $13,200 at UC, ad from $2,572 to $6,612 at CSU. The atioal average for tuitio i public four-year istitutios is $8,893 i The erollmet fee at the CCC icreased from $11 per uit i to $18 per uit i , ad icreased agai to $26 per uit i The fee was reduced back to $20 per uit i , the raised back to $26 per uit i It icreased to $36 per uit i ad to $46 per uit i As i UC ad CSU, fees i the commuity colleges icreased by about 150% over the past decade (for a full-time courseload of 30 uits per semester), but they remai the lowest amog commuity colleges across the atio, ad are less tha half the atioal average. Some of the NCHEMS measures of affordability are from 2008 or 2009, ad may ot fully accout for the impact of the severe recessio o Califoria s higher educatio budgets. Sice 2008, tuitio i Califoria s public istitutios has icreased by a higher percetage tha i all but oe other state (Arizoa), 11 so attedig college i Califoria may be less affordable relative to other states tha the NCHEMS figures would suggest. Cocers about affordability have icreased, with 65% of adults sayig affordability is a big problem, up 13 poits sice Data are ot available from state sources to calculate affordability measures by regio or by race/ethicity. Studet fee levels withi each segmet of higher educatio are the same across the state, while average household icome ad cost of livig vary both by regio ad by race/ethicity. Therefore, we focus oly o the geeral treds i affordability. 12 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

17 Table 2 Average Aual Tuitio/Fees for Residet Udergraduate Studets Uiversity Commuity College Year UC 1 CSU 2 Natioal Avg for Public 4-yr CCC 3 Natioal Avg for Public 2-yr CCC Tuitio as % of Natioal Avg $5,530 $2,572 $4,645 $540 $1,909 28% $6,312 $2,916 $5,126 $780 $2,079 38% $6,802 $3,164 $5,492 $780 $2,182 36% $6,852 $3,199 $5,804 $600 $2,266 26% $7,517 $3,521 $6,191 $600 $2,294 26% $8,027 $3,849 $6,591 $600 $2,372 25% $9,311 $4,893 $7,050 $780 $2,558 30% $11,279 $5,285 $7,605 $780 $2,713 29% $13,181 $6,519 $8,244 $1,080 $2,963 36% $13,200 $6,612 $8,646 $1,380 $3,154 44% $13,200 $6,612 $8,893 $1,380 $3,264 42% Total Icrease 139% 157% 91% 156% 71% Average Aual Icrease 9.3% 10.2% 6.7% 11.8% 5.5% 1 Icludes the systemwide tuitio ad the average campus-based fees 2 Icludes the systemwide tuitio for more tha 6 uits ad the average campus-based fees 3 Represets the total fee for a full-time load of 30 uits Source: Data for UC, CSU, ad CCC gathered from the Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, Residet Udergraduate Fees i Actual Dollars for through , ad from the Legislative Aalyst s Aalysis of the Higher Educatio Budget for more recet years. Figures for the atioal average were obtaied from The College Board s aual Treds i College Pricig reports. Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 13

18 How is Califoria Performig? Participatio Participatio: Better tha Most States + Califoria has high levels of participatio amog traditioal-age college studets compared to other states. The college-goig rate directly from high school varies from a low of 41% i the Moterey Bay regio to a high of 69% i the Cetral Coast regio (Figure 12). A 9th grader i the Superior Califoria regio has a 30% chace of erollig i college withi four years, while the chace is 59% for 9th graders i the Cetral Coast regio. Califoria s participatio rates are better tha most states. The state raks 6th i the share of year olds erolled i college. The state also raks high i the share of adult workig-age studets erolled i college. However, Califoria is raked i the middle of the states i the umber of first-time postsecodary studets as a share of 9th graders erolled four years earlier. Key Fidigs: Regioal Differeces + The state raks 5th i the share of older studets erolled relative to the populatio of workig adults without a bachelor s degree. The state raks 25th i the umber of first-time postsecodary studets as a percetage of 9th graders erolled four years earlier. The share of 18- to 24-year olds erolled i higher educatio varies substatially across regios (Table 3), ragig from 25% i the rural Iyo-Moo regio to over 50% i Orage Couty ad the Sa Fracisco Bay, Moterey Bay, Upper Sacrameto Valley, ad Cetral Coast regios. Key Fidigs: Racial/Ethic Differeces A substatially higher share of Asia high school graduates go directly to college compared to all other racial/ethic groups (Figure 13). The direct college-goig rates of black ad Latio high school graduates are comparable to those of white Regio Table 3 College Participatio Rates by Regio Percet of Year-Olds Erolled i College Percet of Adults Ages 25+ Erolled i College Cetral Coast 54.1% 4.8% Orage Couty 52.8% 5.4% Upper Sacrameto Valley 52.7% 4.9% Moterey Bay 51.6% 5.2% Sa Fracisco Bay 50.7% 5.6% Sacrameto-Tahoe 49.6% 6.1% Los Ageles Couty 47.5% 5.5% The share of adults age 25 ad over erolled i college rages from about three to six percet across the regios. Withi the regios, the participatio rates for this age group ted to be lower i couties where residets lack easy access to a commuity college, with rates of less tha three percet i Amador, Madera, Mariposa, ad Moo Couties. The participatio rates i Table 3 are affected by the locatio of uiversities, especially for the Upper Sacrameto Valley regio. For the youg adult populatio, the participatio rate amog couties other tha Butte Couty is oly 16% to 29%, but the locatio of CSU Chico ad its 16,000 studets i Butte Couty raises the overall rate for the regio to 52%. Sa Diego/Imperial 45.0% 6.1% North Coast 44.3% 4.5% North Sa Joaqui Valley 39.1% 4.7% Ilad Empire 38.1% 5.7% Superior Califoria 35.9% 4.1% South Sa Joaqui Valley 36.3% 4.6% Iyo-Moo 24.6% 2.5% Source: US Cesus Bureau, America Commuity Survey 2012, Table B14004, for most couties. Data for 18 smaller couties were ot show i the 2012 ACS tables, so we used the ACS year estimates for those couties. 14 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

19 Figure 12 Direct College-Goig Rates by Regio College Goig Rate, th Graders Erollig i College withi 4 Years, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Cetral Coast Los Ageles Couty 40% 59% 58% 69% Orage Couty Upper Sacrameto Valley Sa Fracisco Bay Sacrameto-Tahoe 50% 48% 46% 50% 58% 57% 57% 55% Sa Diego/Imperial South Sa Joaqui Valley Superior Califoria North Coast North Sa Joaqui Valley Ilad Empire 30% 33% 33% 35% 35% 38% 43% 42% 42% 47% 47% 47% Moterey Bay 33% 41% Source: Author calculatios based o data obtaied from the Califoria Departmet of Educatio, the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet, ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto usig data obtaied from the CSU Chacellor s Office Figure 13 Direct College-Goig Rates by Race/Ethicity College Goig Rate, th Graders Erollig i College withi 4 Years, % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Asia/Pacific Islader 63% 68% White 38% 44% Hispaic or Latio 32% 43% Black 26% 40% Source: Author calculatios based o data obtaied from the Califoria Departmet of Educatio, the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet, ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto usig data obtaied from the CSU Chacellor s Office Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 15

20 How is Califoria Performig? Participatio graduates. However, a lower percetage of black ad Latio 9th graders eroll i college withi four years, reflectig their lower rates of graduatig from high school. Performace Treds The college-goig rate of high school graduates icreased betwee 2003 ad 2007, but declied i 2009 (Figure 14) a patter see amog all racial/ ethic groups, ad remaied lower i College-goig rates i 2003 reflected a cotext of recessio-related budget cuts to public colleges ad uiversities accompaied by substatial icreases i studet fees, both of which likely depressed participatio rates, so the gais betwee 2003 ad 2007 were mostly just restorig rates to earlier levels. The drop i 2009 occurred durig a similar period of recessio-related budget cuts ad tuitio/ fee icreases. Accordig to archived data from the Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, the 2009 college-goig rate was lower tha at ay time i the last 25 years. 13 Cuts to college budgets i recet years have bee larger tha i past recessios, 14 resultig i the declie i the share of high school graduates erollig i college. 15 The chage i college-goig rates varied across regios. The rate icreased betwee 2003 ad 2012 i several of the more rural regios where college-goig was lower, but those gais were more tha offset by flat or decliig college-goig rates i the more populated areas of the state. Figure 14 Tred i Direct College-Goig Rate Percet Goig Directly to College 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 76% 72% 70% 67% 68% 48% 48% 51% 50% 43% 44% 43% 43% 42% 43% 46% 49% 52% 39% 40% 58% 53% 53% 53% 53% Asia/Pacific Islader White Hispaic or Latio Black All Studets Source: Author calculatios based o data from the Califoria Departmet of Educatio, the Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet, ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto usig data obtaied from the CSU Chacellor s Office 16 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

21 How is Califoria Performig? Completio Completio: Average + Califoria has the highest rate of first-time college freshme returig their secod year amog all the states. + The graduatio rate for full-time, first-time studets i two- ad four-year colleges is better tha most states. Califoria raks 26th i the trasitio rate ad completio rate from 9th grade to college. The umber of credetials ad degrees produced per 100 udergraduates at public two-year colleges is amog the lowest of the states. Califoria s overall performace o college completio is average i the cotext of other states. The state performs well i terms of graduatio rates amog first-time, fulltime studets i two- ad four-year colleges, ad is raked 1st i the share of first-time college freshme that returs for a secod year. Califoria raks 5th i the umber of degrees awarded per 100 udergraduates at public four-year colleges. However, the state performs poorly o the umber of credetials ad degrees produced relative to erollmets i public two-year colleges, likely related, i part, to very high part-time erollmet i that sector, which is associated with much lower completio rates tha amog full-time studets. Califoria also raks below most states o the umber of credetials ad degrees produced relative to the umber of residets without a college degree. Key Fidigs: Regioal Differeces The umber of baccalaureate degrees awarded as a share of erollmet i UC ad CSU is highest for studets from the Upper Sacrameto Valley (26.0) ad lowest for studets from the Iyo-Moo regio (16.3) (Figure 15). Variatio by regio i awardig certificates ad degrees may be affected by several factors other tha the performace of the colleges. The degree of emphasis o the trasfer missio relative to career educatio could affect award rates, sice studets who trasfer have geerally doe so without earig a associate degree. 16 Also, local job markets vary, with some havig more demad for shorter-term certificates tha others, which may affect award rates. As oe example, the exceptioally high award rate for commuity colleges i the Upper Sacrameto Valley regio reflects the award of may shortterm certificates (less tha oe year) i agricultural productio ad protective services. Key Fidigs: Racial/Ethic Differeces The umber of bachelor s degrees awarded per 100 udergraduates erolled i UC ad CSU is highest for white studets (26.5) ad lowest for Latio studets (16.7) (Figure 16). The umber of certificates ad degrees awarded by commuity colleges per 100 studets erolled is also highest for white studets (10.9). Performace Treds The umber of certificates ad degrees awarded per 100 studets erolled i the commuity colleges remaied relatively stable betwee 2003 ad 2012 (Figure 17). It icreased by a small amout for white, Asia ad Latio studets, but ot for black studets. The umber of bachelor s degrees awarded per 100 udergraduates erolled i UC/CSU has remaied fairly stable overall. It has icreased for white, Asia ad black studets but decreased some for Latio studets, ad sigificat racial/ethic gaps persist. Degrees awarded per 100 udergraduates erolled have fluctuated i most regios, with o regios havig a cosistet icrease or decrease betwee 2003 ad 2012 across the commuity college ad uiversity systems. Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 17

22 How is Califoria Performig? Completio Figure 15 Certificates ad Degrees Awarded per 100 Udergraduates Erolled by Regio UC/CSU, 2012 (by couty where studet graduated from high school) CCC, 2012 (by couty where commuity college located) Upper Sacrameto Valley Cetral Coast North Coast Superior Califoria Moterey Bay Sa Fracisco Bay Orage Couty Sa Diego/Imperial Sacrameto-Tahoe Los Ageles Couty North Sa Joaqui Valley South Sa Joaqui Valley Ilad Empire Iyo-Moo Source: Author calculatios based o data provided by the UC Office of the Presidet ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto (usig data obtaied from the CSU Chacellor s Office), ad from data gatherered from the CCC Chacellor s Office olie Datamart. There are o commuity colleges located i the Iyo-Moo regio. 18 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

23 Figure 16 Certificates ad Degrees Awarded per 100 Udergraduates Erolled by Race/Ethicity UC/CSU, 2012 CCC, White Asia/Pacific Islader Black Hispaic or Latio Source: Author calculatios based o data provided by the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet, ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto (usig data obtaied from the CSU Chacellor s Office) Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 19

24 How is Califoria Performig? Completio Figure 17 Treds i Number of Certificates ad Degrees Awarded per 100 Udergraduates Erolled Certificates/Degrees per 100 Erolled CCC UC/CSU CCC UC/CSU CCC UC/CSU CCC UC/CSU CCC UC/CSU White Asia/Pacific Islader Hispaic or Latio Black All Studets Source: Author calculatios based o data obtaied from the Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, the Califoria Departmet of Educatio, the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet, ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto usig data obtaied from the CSU Chacellor s Office 20 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

25 How is Califoria Performig? Beefits Beefits: Better tha Most States + Califoria raks highest i the size of the wage premium that associate ad bachelor s degree holders ear over high school graduates. + The state has the twelfth highest per capita persoal icome. factors icludig easier access to the umerous colleges ad uiversities located i urba areas ad the labor force eeds of high-skill employers located i those regios. Per capita icome closely tracks educatioal attaimet levels. Regios with more collegeeducated idividuals have higher icome levels. + The state raks higher tha most states i the percet of the populatio age ad with a bachelor s degree. Califoria is raked 25th i the percet of the populatio age with a bachelor s degree. Higher educatio levels are associated with broad ecoomic ad social beefits icludig higher idividual earigs, higher tax receipts, lower reliace o public assistace ad other social programs, lower health care costs, ad higher rates of civic participatio. 17 Overall, Califoria has better beefits related to higher educatio tha most states. The state raks first i the earigs advatages of havig a associate or bachelor s degree compared to a high school diploma. Califoria s per capita persoal icome is also higher tha i most states. The percet of older adults with a bachelor s degree is higher tha i may states, but Califoria is average o this measure for the youger cohort; the state raks 16th i the percetage of the populatio age with a bachelor s degree but slips to 18th amog year olds ad to 25th amog year olds. Key Fidigs: Racial/Ethic Differeces Amog Califoria adults ages 25 ad over, 48% of Asias ad 40% of whites have at least a bachelor s degree. The figures for black ad Latio adults are 22% ad 11%, respectively (Figure 19). 18 Differeces i educatio levels are highly correlated with differeces i per capita icome across racial/ ethic populatios. 19 Black ad Latio per capita icome is far below that of whites ad Asias. Performace Treds The share of the workig-age populatio (ages 25-64) with a bachelor s degree or higher has icreased slightly (Figure 20). While attaimet has icreased for all racial/ethic groups, the substatial disparities across groups remai. Educatioal attaimet levels have icreased slightly i all regios except the Moterey Bay ad Sacrameto-Tahoe regios (where it was flat or slightly decreased), leavig the sigificat disparities across regios uchaged. Key Fidigs: Regioal Differeces Educatioal attaimet levels vary substatially across the state. Forty-five percet of workig-age adults (ages 25-64) i the Sa Fracisco Bay area have at least a bachelor s degree, three times the share of adults with that level of educatio i the South Sa Joaqui Valley (Figure 18). The coastal ad urba areas of the state have higher educatioal attaimet levels tha the more rural ad cetral regios. This is likely related to several Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 21

26 How is Califoria Performig? Beefits Figure 18 Educatioal Attaimet ad Per Capita Icome by Regio, Percet of Populatio Aged 25 to 64 with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher, 2012 Per Capita Icome, % $45,000 Populatio Ages with BA or Higher 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 44.9% $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Sa Fracisco Bay Orage Couty Sa Diego/Imperial Cetral Coast Los Ageles Couty Sacrameto-Tahoe Moterey Bay Iyo-Moo North Coast Upper Sacrameto Valley Ilad Empire Superior Califoria North Sa Joaqui Valley South Sa Joaqui Valley 38.3% 34.1% 31.3% 30.9% 29.8% 27.9% 27.2% 21.9% 20.8% 19.3% 18.5% 17.6% 14.9% Per Capita Icome Source: US Cesus Bureau, America Commuity Survey 2012, Table C15001 (for educatioal attaimet) ad Tables B19313 ad B01001 (for per capita icome). Data for 18 smaller couties were ot show i the 2012 ACS tables, so we used the ACS year estimates for those couties. 22 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

27 Figure 19 Educatioal Attaimet ad Per Capita Icome by Race/Ethicity Percet of Populatio Aged 25 ad over with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher, 2012 Per Capita Icome, 2012 Populatio Ages 25+ with BA or Higher 50% $45,000 45% 48.2% $41,509 $40,000 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% $31,718 Asia/Pacific Islader 40.3% White 21.8% Black $21,958 $15, % Hispaic or Latio $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Per Capita Icome Source: US Cesus Bureau, America Commuity Survey 2012, Tables B15002 (educatioal attaimet) ad Tables B19313 ad B01001 (per capita icome) Figure 20 Treds i Educatioal Attaimet % Populatio Ages 25+ with BA or Higher 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 45% 46% 47% 47% 48% 37% 38% 38% 39% 40% 21% 22% 21% 21% 22% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 31% 31% 31% 31% 32% 0% Asia/Pacific Islader White Black Hispaic or Latio Total (for ages 25-64) Source: US Cesus Bureau, America Commuity Survey Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 23

28 How is Califoria Performig? Higher Educatio Fiace Fiace: Average + Califoria raks higher tha most states i the dollar amout of state ad local support per full-time equivalet studet, per capita, ad per $1,000 of persoal icome. The state raks 24th o higher educatio priority, defied as state appropriatios relative to state ad local reveues. Califoria raks 47th i total reveues per fulltime equivalet studet. Califoria s fudig for higher educatio is average compared to other states. Califoria does better tha may other states i the amout of state ad local tax reveues appropriated per full-time equivalet studet (FTES). However, the state is raked ear the bottom i total reveues (icludig appropriatios ad tuitio) that colleges receive per FTES, related to havig the lowest tuitio i the atio i its commuity colleges. The fiace measure o which the state performs best is state ad local support per capita a measure that reflects the large size of the public postsecodary sector i Califoria compared to other states where private istitutios are more prevalet. I terms of the emphasis the state places o higher educatio, Califoria raks 19th o the share of persoal icome spet o higher educatio for every $1,000 of persoal icome i the state, the state speds $7 o higher educatio. Data from the State Higher Educatio Executive Officers idicate that state ad local appropriatios for higher educatio i Califoria amouted to $6,577 per FTES i 2012, somewhat above the atioal average of $5,906 (Figure 21). Despite sigificat tuitio icreases i recet years, Califoria collects cosiderably lower amouts of tuitio reveue per studet. Total reveues geerated from tuitio ad fees per FTES i Califoria were $2,265 i 2012, less tha half the atioal average of $5,189. Performace Treds After adjustig for iflatio, total fudig per FTES for higher educatio was about the same i 2012 as it was i 2003, at about $8,800 (Figure 22). The differece is i the share of fuds comig from studets ad families through tuitio ad fees. I 2003, 11% of total fudig, or somewhat less tha $1,000 of the $8,800 i total fudig, came from studets ad their families while $7,800 was covered by appropriatios. By 2012, the studets share of total fudig had icreased to 26%, with studets payig more tha $2,200 ad appropriatios coverig about $6,600. After adjustig for iflatio, state ad local appropriatios for higher educatio peaked at about $8,000 i 2007, ad have declied by approximately $1,400 per FTES sice the. Figure 21 Fudig for Higher Educatio, 2012 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 State Appropriatios per FTES $8,842 $2,265 Fee Reveue per FTES $11,095 $5,189 $4,000 $2,000 $6,577 $5,906 $0 Califoria Natioal Average Source: State Higher Educatio Executive Officers, State Higher Educatio Fiace FY istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

29 Figure 22 Tred i Higher Educatio Fudig per FTES (i 2012 dollars) Fee Reveue per FTES State Appropriatios per FTES $10,000 $8,000 $993 $1,286 $1,465 $1,609 $1,625 $1,481 $1,663 $1,865 $2,563 $2,265 $6,000 $7,879 $7,420 $6,870 $7,791 $7,985 $7,558 $7,213 $6,236 $6,781 $6,577 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: State Higher Educatio Executive Officers, State Higher Educatio Fiace reports for Figures for 2003 ad 2004 were obtaied from the NCHEMS Iformatio Ceter for State Higher Educatio Policymakig ad Aalysis (based o data from SHEEO). Figures adjusted for iflatio usig the Califoria CPI-U idex as reported by the Califoria Departmet of Fiace. Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 25

30 Summary ad Coclusios Public Ageda more Helpful tha Revised Master Pla The data make it clear that Califoria has work to do to improve public postsecodary outcomes. Despite havig istitutios that are the evy of may, collectively our system of postsecodary educatio is oly about average with these aggregate ratigs maskig serious differeces across regios of the state ad across racial/ethic populatios. May other states have begu to idetify the eeds of their populatios that are ot beig met by existig istitutios ad policies ad to implemet ew ways to better serve the public. By cotrast, Califoria seems wedded to a outmoded approach that is cetered o fudig ad preservig istitutios rather tha startig with public eeds ad developig the meas to fulfill them. The November, 2013 report by the Committee o Ecoomic Developmet explais the problem well: I cotrast to previous approaches (the 1960 Califoria Master Pla for Higher Educatio) that emphasized the idepedet activities of istitutios ad sectors (e.g. commuity colleges, Califoria State Uiversity, or the Uiversity of Califoria), the ew challeges require full utilizatio of Califoria s collective capacities for postsecodary educatio. This ca be achieved oly by itegrated ad collaborative approaches to developmet, delivery, evaluatio ad credetialig of higher educatio across the public istitutios ad systems ad betwee public, private, o-profit ad for-profit sectors. 20 This distictio betwee the istitutio-cetric approach of the past ad the public-cetric approach that is eeded ow is o small uace. We believe that, however well itetioed, calls to fud the Master Pla, or restore the Master Pla, or eve to revise the Master Pla for the 21st Cetury are ot helpful. The Master Pla is, first ad foremost, about preservig istitutios as those istitutios attempt to fulfill their historically-defied missios. A public ageda, by cotrast, is about idetifyig the meas to esure that all Califorias beefit from a populace that has the educatio ad traiig eeded i today s society ad ecoomy. It is either easy or comfortig to thik about ew istitutioal arragemets ad systems for meetig umet eeds of Califorias, but it is equally discomfortig to thik about a future Califoria that leaves regios ad populatios without the skills, jobs, ad myriad other beefits that sprig from a vibrat public postsecodary educatio system. A host of policy issues are ripe to address i ways that require a ew kid of collective, collaborative plaig ad implemetatio. Some of the more obvious oes are as follows: Category Curret Performace 10-year Tred Preparatio Affordability Participatio Completio Beefits Fiace Worse tha most states Average Better tha most states Average Better tha most states Average Califoria s implemetatio of the Commo Core State Stadards makes it vital for all of public P-16 educatio i the state to work closely together to alig expectatios, assessmets, ad teachig strategies to vastly improve college ad career readiess ad success. A ratioal affordability policy addressig tuitio ad fiacial aid i a coheret maer across the state s regios ad istitutios has ever bee more importat tha it is today, with so may of Califoria s families makig choices about postsecodary educatio with costs foremost i mid. Califoria has a large populatio of workig-age adults without postsecodary credetials of value i today s ecoomy. New approaches will be eeded to educate these idividuals ad to esure that aother geeratio does ot similarly fall through the cracks of the istitutioal structures that we have i the state. 26 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

31 Chages i the labor market have put a premium o techical educatio at all levels but Califoria s public postsecodary istitutios are fallig short of meetig the eed for workers i techical fields. There are usustaiable differeces i educatio levels across racial/ethic ad icome groups i the state that must be addressed i light of the clear demographic treds i the state. New istructioal techologies are providig opportuities for improvig the quality of learig ad the accessibility to postsecodary educatio, ad may usher i ew forms of istitutioal cooperatio as well as ew istitutioal forms themselves i the search to best serve the public. The Data Imperative Each time we issue this report o Califoria postsecodary educatio we coclude with a plea that Califoria must, ad ca, do better. This time we have a additioal plea that is motivated by the alarmig declie i the availability of data. With the cessatio of data collectio efforts by the defuct Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio, we struggled to eve complete this baselie report, as some importat data o college participatio ad completio are o loger available for the three public segmets. The UC, CSU, ad CCC each provide cosiderable public data but each decides what to provide ad how to defie ad frame the data. That arragemet simply caot support quality state-level plaig for the same reaso that the 1960 Master Pla, with its focus o istitutios rather tha the public good, caot be resurrected to guide us ow ad i the future. The three segmets have agreed to share some data with oe aother for select purposes but this too falls well short of havig comprehesive ad timely data to iform ad shape a public ageda to educate Califorias. Take a hard look at the data i this report because this is likely the last time that we will be able to provide a full accoutig of these treds. Next Steps Part II of this project is to develop a model public ageda for Califoria, usig the data i this report as a baselie ad drawig o examples from across the coutry to guide us i settig forth the kids of goals, metrics, ad policy iitiatives that might serve the state well as it works to improve o curret performace. For Part III we will prepare case studies of state-level leadership exercised i other states to improve postsecodary performace ad draw out implicatios for Califoria. Owig to the efforts of may researchers ad advocates, the case for chage has bee starkly laid out. Takig steps forward from here will be challegig without a ifrastructure to support collective plaig ad with ew holes i the state s data systems. But there are may people ad orgaizatios eager to help. It is our hope that this project ca be of assistace. Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 27

32 Appedix 1 Methods for Calculatig Califoria s Performace Relative to Other States 1. Collected data o performace measures For each idex, we idetified measures similar to those used i Measurig Up. Most of the measures came from the Natioal Ceter for Higher Educatio Maagemet System s Iformatio Ceter for Higher Educatio Policymakig ad Aalysis. 21 However, we updated the data o eighth grade performace o the Natioal Assessmet of Educatioal Progress (NAEP) usig data from the Natioal Ceter for Educatio Statistics Rakig Califoria relative to other states For each measure we idetified the score for the highest performig state, the score at the 75th percetile (i.e., higher tha 75% of the other states), the media score, the 25% percetile score (i.e., higher tha 25% of the other states), ad the lowest score. These five poits were used to place Califoria ito the correspodig categories of amog the best states, better tha most states, average, worse tha most states, ad amog the worst states (see Table A1). For example if Califoria s score o a measure was closer to better tha most tha to amog the best or average, Califoria s performace was raked as better tha most. Based o the performace category, the state was the assiged a score ragig from oe to five with five beig the best performace. 3. Calculatig the idex score For most performace areas, the state s score o each measure was weighted usig weights similar to those used i the 2008 Measurig Up report, which were determied by existig research documetig the sigificace of these variables as a measure of category performace. 23 I cases where data were ot available for each of the sub-dimesios of the performace category, the weights were redistributed proportioately across the available measures. Similarly, i cases where we used additioal measures we reallocated the weights accordigly. The Measurig Up reports did ot assig a grade for higher educatio fiace but we did. There were five measures for fiace that we grouped ito two categories, per studet fudig measures ad measures of the state emphasis o fudig higher educatio. Rage of States Scores Table A1 Correspodig Performace Category Rak Score Highest Score Amog the Best 5 75th Percetile Better tha Most 4 Media Average 3 25th Percetile Worst tha Most 2 Lowest Score Amog the Worst 1 Each of these categories was give equal weight. The weights are show i Table A2. The weighted scores were summed to form a idex score ragig from 1 to 5. This score was the used to assig the state to a performace category for the overall idex. 4. Example: Scorig the beefits category Table A3 shows Califoria s performace o the six measures for the beefits area. I Califoria, the percet of the populatio age with a bachelor s degree was 31%. The performace of all 50 states raged from 20% to 48% ad Califoria s performace was closest to the media (31%), givig it a performace rakig of average ad a rak score of 3. The weight for this measure was approximately 0.17, meaig that this measure accouted for 17% of the total idex score. Multiplyig Califoria s rak score of 3 by the weight gives a weighted score of The sum of all of the weighted scores for this performace area is 4 which traslates ito better tha average performace for this idex overall. 28 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

33 Table A2 Weights for Performace Measures Measure Preparatio High School Completio (47.2%) Public high school graduatio rate (2009).472 K-12 Studet Achievemet (52.8%) Number of AP scores at 3 or above per 1,000 juiors/seiors (2007) High ACT/SAT scores per 1,000 HS grads (2007; high = 25+/1780+) Percet of 8th graders at or above proficiet o NAEP - MATH (2011) Percet of 8th graders at or above proficiet o NAEP - READING (2011) Percet of 8th graders at or above proficiet o NAEP - WRITING (2007) Percet of 8th graders at or above proficiet o NAEP - SCIENCE (2011) Affordability Family ability to pay (first-time, full-time udergraduates) (50%) Percet of family icome to pay for public 4-year college (2009) (lowest) Percet of family icome to pay for public 2-year college (2009) (lowest) Strategies for affordability (40%) State grat aid targeted to low-icome families as share of Pell grat aid (2008) (highest) Percet of family icome from lowest quitile- public 4-year college (2009) (lowest) Percet of family icome from lowest quitile- public 2-year college(2009) (lowest) Weight Reliace o loas (10%) Average loa amout studets borrow each year (2007) (lowest).100 Participatio Youg Adults (66.67%) 9th graders chace for college withi 4 years (2008) Percet of year olds erolled i college (2009) Direct college-goig rate (2008) Workig-Age Adult (33.33%) Erollmet of year olds as share of yr olds with o BA (2009).330 Completio Persistece (20%) Retetio rate - first time college freshme returig secod year (2010).200 Completio (80%) NCHEMS has several other measures uder Efficiecy & Effectiveess rather tha Completio Graduatio rate - 6-year for bachelors (2009) Graduatio rate - 3-year for associate (2009) Credetials ad degrees awarded per 100 FTE-public 4-year total (2009) Credetials ad degrees awarded per 100 FTE-public 2-year total (2009) Pipelie - trasitio-completio rate from 9th grade to college (2008) Credetials ad degrees awarded per 1000 residets without college degrees (2009) Credetials ad degrees awarded per 1000 residets employed with college degrees (2009) Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 29

34 Appedix 1 Table A2 (cotiued) Measure Beefits Educatioal Achievemet (50%) Percet of populatio age with BA (2011) Percet of populatio age with BA (2011) Percet of populatio age with BA (2011) Ecoomic Beefits (50%) Differece i media earigs betwee a high school diploma ad a associates degree, 25 to 64 year olds (2010) Differece i media earigs betwee a high school diploma ad a bachelors degree, 25 to 64 Year olds (2010) Per capita persoal icome (2011) Weight Fiace Per studet fudig (50%) State ad local support per FTES (2011) Total reveues (appropriatios + tuitio) per FTES (2011) State higher educatio fiacig emphasis (50%) State ad local support for higher ed per capita (2011) State ad local support for higher ed per $1000 of persoal icome (2011) Higher ed priority - appropriatios relative to state/local tax reveues (2005) istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

35 Table A3 Example of Scorig Performace Categories Beefits NCHEMS Measure (most recet year) CA Figure CA Rak Highest 75th Percetile Media 25th Percetile Lowest Rakig Rak Score Weight Weighted Rak Score Educatioal Achievemet (50%) Percet of populatio age with BA (2011) Percet of populatio age with BA (2011) Percet of populatio age with BA (2011) 30.5% Average % Better % Better Ecoomic Beefits (50%) Differece i media earigs betwee a high school diploma ad a associates degree, 25 to 64 year olds (2010) Differece i media earigs betwee a high school diploma ad a bachelors degree, 25 to 64 year olds (2010) Per capita persoal icome (2011) $14,547 1 $14,547 $ 10,237 $9,269 $8,323 $5,080 Best $28,876 1 $28,876 $21,248 $18,503 $16,378 $11,344 Best $44, $56,889 $44,388 $39,833 $ 36,359 $ 32,176 Better Idex Rak Score 4 Idex Rakig Better tha Average Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 31

36 Appedix 2 List of Couties by Regio Regio Couties i Regio North Coast Del Norte, Humboldt, Lake, Medocio Superior Califoria Lasse, Modoc, Shasta, Siskiyou, Triity Upper Sacrameto Valley Butte, Colusa, Gle, Plumas, Sierra, Tehama Sacrameto-Tahoe Sa Fracisco Bay Moterey Bay Alpie, Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacrameto, Sutter, Yolo, Yuba Alameda, Cotra Costa, Mari, Napa, Sa Fracisco, Sa Mateo, Sata Clara, Solao, Sooma Moterey, Sa Beito, Sata Cruz North Sa Joaqui Valley Calaveras, Freso, Madera, Mariposa, Merced, Sa Joaqui, Staislaus, Tuolume South Sa Joaqui Valley Ker, Kigs, Tulare Iyo-Moo Iyo, Moo Cetral Coast Sa Luis Obispo, Sata Barbara, Vetura Los Ageles Couty Los Ageles Orage Couty Orage Ilad Empire Riverside, Sa Berardio Sa Diego/Imperial Imperial, Sa Diego 32 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

37 Appedix 3 Methods for Calculatig Measures by Regio ad by Race/Ethicity Followig are summaries of the calculatios made for each measure, with the calculatios doe usig data by couty (aggregated ito regios) or by race/ethicity. Preparatio (all measures iclude oly public school studets) 1. Share of 8th Graders at or above Proficiet i Laguage Arts Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest Calculatio: Numerator: umber of 8th grade studets scorig proficiet or advaced o the Califoria Stadards Test for Eglish-Laguage Arts, 2013 Deomiator: total umber of 8th grade studets takig the test, Share of 8th Graders at or above Proficiet i Math Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest Calculatio: Numerator: umber of 8th grade studets scorig proficiet or advaced o the Califoria Stadards Tests for Geeral Mathematics (Grades 6 & 7 Stadards) ad Algebra I, 2013 Deomiator: total umber of 8th grade studets takig the Geeral Math ad Algebra I tests, Number of Advaced Placemet (AP) Scores >=3 per 1,000 11th ad 12th Graders Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest (by regio) ad The College Board s AP Report to the Natio State Supplemet Califoria (by race/ethicity) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of studets scorig a 3 or greater o a AP test, Deomiator: Total erollmet i 11th ad 12th grade, Result multiplied by 1, Number of Scores o SAT >= 1500 ad o ACT >= 21 per 1,000 High School Seiors Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest (ot available by race/ethicity) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of studets scorig 1500 or greater o the SAT + umber of studets scorig 21 or greater o the ACT, Deomiator: Total 12th grade erollmet, Result multiplied by 1, Erollmet i Advaced Sciece as a Share of 11th-12th Grade Erollmet Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest Calculatio: Numerator: Number of studets erolled i Chemistry, Advaced Chemistry, Physics, Advaced Physics, or ay Advaced Placemet sciece course, Deomiator: Total erollmet i 11th ad 12th grade, Erollmet i Advaced Math Courses as a Share of 11th-12th Grade Erollmet Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest Calculatio: Numerator: Number of studets erolled i math courses above the level of Algebra II, icludig Trigoometry, Precalculus, Probability ad Statistics, Calculus, or ay Advaced Placemet math course, Deomiator: Total erollmet i 11th ad 12th grade, Share of High School Graduates Completig the A through G Curriculum Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest Calculatio: Numerator: Number of graduates completig A-G curriculum, Deomiator: Total umber of high school graduates, Share of High School Juiors Participatig i the Early Assessmet Program (EAP) that Tested as College Ready or Ready Coditioal i Eglish Source: Califoria State Uiversity Chacellor s Office website for EAP results Calculatio: Numerator: Number of juiors scorig ready for college or ready coditioal o Eglish exam, 2013 Deomiator: Total umber of juiors tested o EAP exam for Eglish, 2013 Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 33

38 9. Share of High School Juiors Participatig i the Early Assessmet Program (EAP) that Tested as College Ready or Ready Coditioal i Math Source: Califoria State Uiversity Chacellor s Office website for EAP results Calculatio: Numerator: Number of juiors scorig ready for college or ready coditioal o either Algebra II or Summative Mathematics exam, 2013 Deomiator: Total umber of juiors tested o EAP exam for math, 2013 Participatio 1. Percet of 18 to 24 year-olds Erolled i College Source: US Cesus, America Commuity Survey 2012, Table B14004 (for couties where ACS 2012 data were ot available we used data from ACS Year Estimates) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of people ages 18 to 24 erolled i college or graduate school Deomiator: Total umber of people ages Percet of Adults Ages 25 ad over Erolled i College Source: US Cesus, America Commuity Survey 2012, Table B14004 (for couties where ACS 2012 data were ot available we used data from ACS Year Estimates) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of people ages 25 ad older erolled i college or graduate school Deomiator: Total umber of people ages 25 ad older 3. College Goig Rate Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest ad data provided by the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto (based o data provided to them by the CSU Chacellor s Office) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of first-time freshme ages 19 ad uder erolled i UC, CSU ad CCC (program type=regular) Fall 2012 Deomiator: Total umber of high school graduates, Notes: For data by regio, the umerator icludes freshme age 19 ad uder who graduated from high school i that regio, ad the deomiator icludes all high school graduates from the regio. 4. 9th Graders Erollig i College withi 4 Years Source: Califoria Departmet of Educatio o-lie Dataquest ad data provided by the CCC Chacellor s Office, the UC Office of the Presidet ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto (based o data provided to them by the CSU Chacellor s Office) Calculatio: Step 1: High School Completio Rate Numerator: Number of high school graduates Deomiator: Number of 9th graders i Step 2: College Goig Rate (see calculatio i #3 above) Step 3: Multiply the high school completio rate by the college goig rate Completio 1. Number of BA Degrees Awarded per 100 Udergraduates Erolled (UC/CSU) Source: Data provided by the UC Office of the Presidet ad the Istitute for Social Research at CSU Sacrameto (based o data provided to them by the CSU Chacellor s Office) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of bachelor s degrees awarded at UC ad CSU, 2012 Deomiator: Total udergraduate erollmet at UC ad CSU, fall 2012 Notes: For data by regio, the umerator icludes umber of degrees awarded to studets whose high school of origi is i the regio ad the deomiator icludes all studets erolled whose high school of origi is i the regio. 2. Number of Certificates ad Degrees Awarded per 100 Udergraduates Erolled (CCC) Source: CCC Datamart ad data provided by the CCC Chacellor s Office Calculatio: Numerator: Total umber of certificates ad degrees awarded at commuity colleges, istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

39 Deomiator: Total erollmet at commuity colleges, fall 2012 Notes: For data by regio, the umerator icludes the umber of certificates/degrees awarded by commuity colleges located i the regio ad the deomiator icludes all studets erolled i commuity colleges i the regio. Commuity colleges do ot always gather iformatio o the high school atteded. However, commuity colleges primarily serve local studets, so calculatios based o the locatio of the college should reasoably represet the completio rates for the residets of each regio. Beefits 1. Share of the Populatio Aged with a BA Degree by Regio Source: US Cesus, America Commuity Survey 2012, Table B15001 (data for couties ot represeted i the ACS 2012 files were gather from the ACS Year Estimates) Calculatio: Numerator: Number of people ages 25 to 64 possessig a BA degree or higher Deomiator: Total populatio ages 25 to Share of the Populatio Aged 25 ad Over with a BA Degree by Race/Ethicity Source: US Cesus, America Commuity Survey 2012, Table B15002 Calculatio: Numerator: Number of people ages 25 ad over possessig a BA degree or higher Deomiator: Total populatio ages 25 ad over Notes: Data for the workig-age populatio (25-64) were ot available by race/ethicity i the ACS tables 3. Per Capita Icome Source: US Cesus, America Commuity Survey 2012, Tables B19313 ad B01001 (for the aalysis by regio, icome data for couties ot represeted i the ACS 2012 files were gathered from the ACS Year Estimates) Calculatio: Numerator: Aggregate icome Deomiator: Total populatio Average Wo t Do: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio as a Foudatio for Actio 35

40 Edotes 1 Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio (2008). Beyod the lookig glass: Assessig performace i Califoria postsecodary educatio. Sacrameto, CA: Author; Legislative Aalyst s Office ( ). The Master Pla at 50 (series of reports). Sacrameto, CA: Author; Johso, H. (2010). Higher educatio i Califoria: New goals for the Master Pla. Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria; Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy (2011). Cosequeces of Neglect: Performace Treds i Califoria Higher Educatio. Sacrameto: Author; Califoria Competes (2012). The road ahead: Higher educatio, Califoria s promise, ad our future ecoomy. Sa Fracisco: Author; Boh, S., Grattet, R., Haak, E., Hayes, J., Hill, L., Johso, H., McCoville, S., Warre, P., & Westo, W. (2013). Califoria 2025: Plaig for a better future (2013 update). Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria; Geiser, S. & Atkiso, R.C. (2013). Beyod the Master Pla: The case for restructurig baccalaureate educatio i Califoria. Califoria Joural of Politics ad Policy, 5(1), Little Hoover Commissio (2013). A New Pla for a New Ecoomy: Reimagiig Higher Educatio. Sacrameto, CA. Author; Committee for Ecoomic Developmet (2013). Boostig Califoria s Postsecodary Educatio Performace. Washigto, DC: Author. 2 See Appedix 2 for a list of couties icluded i each regio 3 See performace.shtml 4 The earlier IHELP reports o higher educatio performace i Califoria - Cosequeces of Neglect, The Grades are I 2008, The Grades are I 2006, ad The Grades are I are available at 5 CSU s Early Assessmet Program (EAP) gives high school juiors the optio of completig some additioal items o the CST exams to determie their readiess for college. Studets determied to be college ready based o the EAP exams are exempted from further assessmet testig at the time of college etry, ad are allowed to eroll i college-level courses. Those determied to be coditioally ready ca be exempted from further assessmet testig as log as they take a specific approved course durig their seior year i high school or achieve a specified score i the relevat subject o a atioal stadardized test (SAT, ACT or AP). As with the CST exams, the EAP exams will be icorporated ito the ew assessmet tests beig developed as part of implemetig the Commo Core State Stadards begiig i Studets will o loger eed to opt i to takig the EAP exams, as there will be o additioal set of questios. Levels of college readiess i Eglish ad math will be measured for all high school juiors as part of the K-12 system s regular assessmet tests. 6 Recet legislatio (AB 484, Chapter 489, Statutes of 2013) establishes the Measuremet of Academic Performace ad Progress (MAPP) as the statewide assessmet program for Califoria studets, ad permits the results of the grade 11 MAPP assessmets i Eglish ad math to be used for the Early Assessmet Program. 7 This report combies all persos of Asia or Pacific Islader descet ito oe category due to data limitatios. There are likely substatial differeces across Asia sub-populatios i measures related to college preparatio, participatio ad completio which are masked by usig oly oe category Baro, K. (2013, August 8). STAR test scores declie for first time i a decade. EdSource: Highlightig Strategies for Studet Success. Retrieved from Oliff, P., Palacios, V., Johso, I., & Leachma, M. (2013). Recet deep state higher educatio cuts may harm studets ad the ecoomy for years to come. Washigto, DC: Ceter o Budget ad Policy Priorities. Baldassare, M., Boer, D., Petek, S., & Shrestha, J. (2012). PPIC statewide survey: Califorias & the future. Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria. The archived Califoria Postsecodary Educatio Commissio website shows data o college-goig rates from 1985 to 2009 at The college-goig rates show i the CPEC tred graph were calculated somewhat differetly from the rates preseted here, but the overall treds are similar. Boh, S., Reyes, B., & Johso, H. (2013). The impact of budget cuts o Califoria s commuity colleges. Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria. Johso, H. (2012). Defudig higher educatio: What are the effects o college erollmet? Sa Fracisco: Public Policy Istitute of Califoria. The commuity colleges have recetly developed ad begu to award associate degrees for trasfer, desiged for studets plaig to trasfer to the CSU system. Goig forward, the availability of these ew degrees is likely to affect the historically low share of trasfer studets that ear a associate degree before trasferrig. Baum, S., Ma, J., & Payea, K. (2013). Educatio pays 2013: The beefits of higher educatio for idividuals ad society. New York: The College Board. The educatioal attaimet data by race/ethicity i Figure 19 represets attaimet for the etire populatio aged 25 ad over, rather tha the workig age populatio (ages 25-64) used i the regioal aalysis i Figure 18. This is due to the way data were available i the America Commuity Survey summary tables. The icome i figure 19 icludes the aggregate icome of all members of that populatio, ot just those with a college educatio. So the figure does ot represet ay pay disparities across racial/ethic groups for people with a college degree. Committee for Ecoomic Developmet, 2013, p Natioal Ceter for Public Policy ad Higher Educatio (2008). Techical Guide for Measurig Up The College Board (2013). The 9th Aual AP Report to the Natio State Supplemet Califoria. Washigto, DC: Author. 9 The College Board (2012) College Boud Seiors State Profile Report Califoria. Washigto, DC: Author. 36 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy at califoria state uiversity, sacrameto

41 istitute for higher educatio leadership & policy IHELP thaks the followig sposor for its support of this research ad report. The Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy coducts research ad applies kowledge ad evidece to produce actioable recommedatios to improve policy, practice, ad leadership for postsecodary readiess ad success. Istitute for Higher Educatio Leadership & Policy 6000 J Street, Tahoe Hall 3063 Sacrameto, CA T (916) F (916)