Is the sky the limit to educational improvement?

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1 1 Woodrow Wilson Center Conference Washington, D.C., 16 July 2009 Prof. Head, Indicators and Analysis Division OECD Directorate for Education

2 2 There is nowhere to hide The yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards but the best performing education systems

3 3 % A world of change in baseline qualifications Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, und years Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

4 A world of change college education Cost per student Graduate supply Tertiary type A graduation rate

5 A world of change college education Cost per student Finland United States Graduate supply Tertiary type A graduation rate

6 A world of change college education United States (2000) Australia Finland Tertiary type A graduation rate

7 A world of change college education Tertiary type A graduation rate

8 A world of change college education Tertiary type A graduation rate

9 A world of change college education Tertiary type A graduation rate

10 A world of change college education Tertiary type A graduation rate

11 A world of change college education United States Finland Australia Tertiary type A graduation rate

12 A world of change college education United States Tertiary type A graduation rate

13 A world of change college education United States Tertiary type A graduation rate

14 A world of change college education United States Tertiary type A graduation rate

15 A world of change college education United States Tertiary type A graduation rate

16 A world of change college education United States Tertiary type A graduation rate

17 A world of change college education Tertiary type A graduation rate

18 A world of change college education r Rising higher education qualifications seem generally not to have led to an inflation of the labour-market value of qualifications. In all but three of the 20 countries with available United States data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40% Tertiary type A graduation rate

19 19 Moving targets Future supply of high school graduates 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 China EU India US

20 20 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 Future supply of high school graduates 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 China EU India US Future supply of college graduates ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 China EU India US

21 21 How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) The dilemma of schools: The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution

22 22 OECD s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds Coverage of world economy 77% 81% 83% 85% 86% 87%

23 23 High science performance 565 Chinese Taipei Estonia Liechtenstein United Kingdom Czech Republic Macao-China Ireland France Iceland United States Norway Portugal 16 Finland 545 Hong Kong-China Russian Federation Italy Greece Israel Low science performance Average performance of 15-year-olds in science extrapolate and apply Canada Japan New Zealand Australia 525 Netherlands Korea Slovenia Germany Switzerland Austria Belgium 505 Hungary Sweden Denmark Poland Croatia Latvia Slovak Republic,Spain, Lithuania Luxembourg countries perform below this line 6

24 24 High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Strong socioeconomic impact on student performance Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High science performance 565 Chinese Taipei Estonia Liechtenstein United Kingdom Czech Republic Macao-China Ireland France Iceland United States Norway Portugal 16 Finland 545 Hong Kong-China Israel Low science performance Average performance of 15-year-olds in science extrapolate High social equity and apply High average performance Canada Japan New Zealand Australia 525 Netherlands Korea Slovenia Germany Switzerland Austria Belgium 505 Hungary Sweden Denmark Poland Croatia Latvia Slovak Republic,Spain, Lithuania Luxembourg 485 Russian Federation Italy Greece Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Low average performance High social equity 6

25 25 High average performance Large socio-economic disparities Strong socioeconomic impact on student performance Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities High science performance Portugal Durchschnittliche High average performance Schülerleistungen im High social equity Bereich Mathematik Hong Kong-China Chinese Taipei Canada New Zealand Estonai Japan Australia Netherlands Liechtenstein Korea Slovenia 520 Germany United Kingdom Czech Republic Switzerland Belgium Austria Ireland Hungary Sweden 500 Poland France Denmark Croatia United States Latvia Iceland Slovak Republic Lithuania Spain Luxembourg Norway Russian Federation Italy Greece 460 Finland Socially equitable distribution of learning opportunities Low Israel average performance High social equity Macao-China Low science performance 12 2

26 26 How to get there Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons PISA OECD Programme for International Student Assessment Briefing of Council 14 November 2007

27 27 Money matters - but other things do too

28 28 High ambitions and universal standards Rigor, focus and coherence Great systems attract great teachers and provide access to best practice and quality professional development

29 29 Challenge and support Strong support Poor performance Strong performance Improvements idiosyncratic Systemic improvement Low challenge High challenge Poor performance Conflict Stagnation Demoralisation Weak support

30 30 High ambitions Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Access to best practice and quality professional development

31 31 PISA score in science School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire

32 32 Integrated educational opportunities Accountability Strong ambitions Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning Access to best practice and quality professional development

33 33 Paradigm shifts The old bureaucratic education system The Finnish education system Hit & miss Universal high standards Uniformity Embracing diversity Provision Outcomes Bureaucratic look up Devolved look outwards Talk equity Deliver equity Received wisdom Data and best practice Prescription Informed profession Demarcation Collaboration

34 34 r r r Progress Why care? Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP Rising tertiary level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an inflation of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%) Fairness Concerns about the role of skills in creating social inequity in economic outcomes Both average and distribution of skill matter to long-term growth (high percentages of low skill impede growth) Value for money Concerns about the demand for, and efficiency and effectiveness of, investments in public goods

35 All national and international publications The complete micro-level database Thank you! and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

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