Rural Economic Resiliency in Colorado

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1 Rural Economic Resiliency in Colorado A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency June 2017 Project Team Colorado Research Team: University of Colorado Leeds School of Business Business Research Division Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade Colorado Department of Local Affairs State Demography Office The following organizations were instrumental in the support of this analysis: The Anschutz Foundation, El Pomar Foundation, Gates Family Foundation, and Telluride Foundation National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month Recession 8 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody s Analytics, and the BRD. Recession 18 Months 1

2 Employment Recovery 10-Year Growth, May 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Employment Recovery 1-Year Growth, May 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Employment Growth Colorado Year-over-Year Change Year-over-Year Growth 62% of rural counties 76% of urban counties 22 still in decline Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. 2

3 Rural Colorado Covered Employment Jobs 350, ,000 Employment up 67 consecutive months. -2.8% 250, , , ,000 50, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Rural Colorado Covered Wages Annual (4Q Rolling) $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 Year-over-Year +1.9% $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Colorado Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q), Nominal Average Wage (Dollars) $60,000 Urban $56,600 $50,000 $40,000 Rural $39,900 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 3

4 Resiliency Project: Data and Economic Metrics Nonmetro County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties. Nonmetro County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties. 4

5 Total Employment Indexed Growth, Indexed, 1969= Recessions Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research. Colorado Urban Colorado Rural U.S. Rural Total Employment Rural Colorado Counties Employment 600, , ,000 Recessions 300, , ,000 Rural Proprietor Employment 32% Urban Proprietor Employment 24% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research. Employment Growth and Assets Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, COGCC, Energy Information Administration, Colorado Department of Transportation, Colorado Department of Higher Education, Colorado Ski Country USA. 5

6 Percentage of Population over age 25 with HS Diploma or Equivalent Percentage of Population over age 25 with Less than HS Diploma Education and Employment Growth Colorado Rural Counties High School Diploma 10 95% 9 85% 8 75% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Less than High School Diploma 25% 2 15% 1 5% Percentage of Population over age 25 with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Bachelor s Degree or Higher 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Graduate Degree 24% 2 16% 12% 8% 4% -1% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Ave. Annual Employment Growth, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Percentage of Population over age 25 with Graduate Degree Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2016 Percentage LFPR Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a high school diploma High school graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Seasonally Adjusted. Education, Employment, and Earnings 2016 Unemployment Rate Median Weekly Earnings 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.7% Doctoral degree Professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree 1,664 $1,745 $1,380 $1, % 3.6% 4.4% Associate's degree Some college, no degree High school diploma $819 $756 $ % Less than a high school diploma $504 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers. 6

7 Employment and Prime Working Age Pop Colorado Rural Counties 5% 4% Average Annual Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% 35% 4 45% 5 55% 6-1% Prime Working Age Population Share Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Agriculture 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, % 3% 2% 1% % Agriculture Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN. Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Private Services 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, % 3% 2% 1% % Private Services Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN. 7

8 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index By State 1, Alaska Hawaii Nevada New Mexico West Virginia Mississippi Virginia Louisiana Wyoming Maryland South Carolina Alabama Delaware Indiana Maine Vermont Wisconsin North Carolina South Dakota Arkansas Kentucky Michigan New Hampshire Oklahoma Massachusetts Montana Rhode Island Washington Ohio Kansas Iowa Connecticut Arizona New York Idaho Florida Pennsylvania New Jersey Tennessee Missouri North Dakota Georgia Minnesota Nebraska Oregon Colorado Illinois Utah California Texas Source: Calculations based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Focus Groups Helping Resiliency Demographics Industry diversity Strong leadership Education and healthcare Transportation access Quality of life Broadband Leadership Inhibitors Adequate, affordable housing Lack of available labor Youth and family retention Childcare Case Studies: Salida and Durango To gain a better understanding of the perceived drivers of economic resiliency in a rural community, the research team performed in-depth studies. Various community leaders and key stakeholders were interviewed. During the process, the research team delved deeper into the previously identified drivers of and hindrances to resiliency in a community. Drivers and Challenges to Resiliency 8

9 Case Study: Drivers of Resiliency Quality of Life Education & Health Care Community Leadership Industry Diversity Transportation Case Study: Hurdles' to Resiliency Housing Availability & Supply Labor Market Youth & Family Retention Smart Growth Observations & Economic Resiliency Guide Vision Your Community: Create a development plan with buy-in and input from the community. Think creatively and be authentic to your community s personality when creating a vision for your community. Invest in Community Assets: Identify community assets ideal for community placemaking. Seize Opportunities and Take Risks: Develop and foster a culture of commitment, seizing opportunities, building businesses and community assets and diversifying your community s industries. Take risks and invest in your community and businesses. 9

10 Observations & Economic Resiliency Guide cont d Invest in Education and Healthcare Consider education and healthcare as a tool for family and labor retention and attraction and invest accordingly. Infill/Density and Annexation Options Inventory annexation options and evaluate infill and annexation policies. Collaborate and Work Regionally Pool resources and build capacity by working regionally. Empower and Engender Leaders Champion current leaders, making them ambassadors for your community. Develop young professional leadership programs to encourage and support the next generation of leaders. Thank you and Q&A Brian Lewandowski brian.lewandowski@colorado.edu Laura Blomquist Rodriguez laura.blomquist@state.co.us 10