ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2006 TO FALL 2012

Transcription

1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2006 TO FALL 2012 Institutional Research Office University of Hawai i September 2006 File Reference: Management and Planning Support Folder, Projections Reports available online at:

2 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI'I COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2006 TO FALL 2012 INTRODUCTION This report presents information on projected headcount enrollment for the University of Hawai'i Community Colleges: Hawai'i, Honolulu, Kapi'olani, Kaua'i, Leeward, Maui, and Windward. The projections are statistical extrapolations of current trends in enrollment by registration status and program area. They do not set enrollment targets and, in general, do not take into account planned or potential changes in campus policies or procedures. They should be considered as an extension into the future of current enrollment trends, and may be used as a foundation for further work in planning and budgeting. The enrollment projections are based upon unduplicated headcounts of students enrolled in credit courses. Included are classified students enrolled in liberal arts or vocational programs as well as unclassified students. In addition, special students (concurrent students and early admits) are included for all years, both historical and projected. Historical data are included in the tables to facilitate comparison and analysis. They were extracted from student enrollment, academic crossover and course registration data files. Forecasts for Hawai'i public high school seniors by school district were provided by the Department of Education for the State of Hawai>i. Forecasts for Hawai>i public and private high school graduates were obtained from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). METHODOLOGY The projections are broken out by registration status: first-time, transfer, returning and continuing. Within each registration status category, enrollment is broken out further by program area: liberal arts, career and technical education and unclassified. For the Fall 2006 projections, a new line item has been added showing headcounts for students whose primary campus (home campus) is not the campus at which they are registered. Data for this item have been provided back to Fall For first-time, transfer and returning students, breakout by program area is made using average distribution ratios. For continuing students, breakout is made using continuation rates. The Fall 2006 projection report offers three projection series - high, middle and low - for each campus and for the UH Community Colleges as a whole. The forecasted numbers in the separate series were produced by varying the input values used. Otherwise, the same general methodology is employed for all three series. First-time student enrollment is divided into five sub-categories, depending upon the high school of origin. Each category is forecast separately:

3 (a) (b) (c) (d) Hawai>i public high school graduates entering the UH Community Colleges in the fall semester immediately following graduation from high school are called direct public entrants. The enrollment projections make use of the public high school senior forecast provided by the Hawai i Department of Education (see Appendix A). Historical participation rates of high school seniors are calculated for each campus by school district. An average of these rates is then applied to the annual high school senior forecast by district to yield the projected number of direct entrants. Hawai>i private high school graduates entering the UH Community Colleges in the fall semester immediately following their graduation from high school are called direct private entrants. The enrollment projections make use of the private high school graduate forecast for Hawai>i published by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), released in December 2003 (see Appendix B). Historical ratios of direct private entrants to total Hawai>i private high school graduates are calculated, by campus. An average ratio is then applied to the WICHE annual private high school graduate forecast to yield the projected number of direct private entrants. First-time students from the U.S. mainland, as well as those from foreign countries and U.S. related areas, are forecast using trends or constants. The U.S. related areas include students from U.S. Territories (American Samoa, Guam and the Virgin Islands), students from U.S. Commonwealth states (Puerto Rico and the Northern Marianas) and Compact of Free Association member states (Federated States of Micronesia, Palau and the Republic of the Marshall Islands). All other first-time entrants, such as those who completed high school via the General Education Development (GED) examination, those Hawai i high school graduates who have been out of high school for more than one year and those students who did not graduate from high school, are called other first-time students. Other first-time students are projected for each campus using constants. Transfer and Returning student enrollment are forecast using one of two methods: for those campuses where the enrollment shows a distinct trend, a trend line is used; for those campuses where the enrollment does not show a trend, a constant is used. (Note that for the Fall 2005, breakout of transfer enrollment by previous college attended was not available. This information is excluded from the Fall 2006 enrollment projection report, but may be reintroduced again when the data become available.) Continuing students are forecast for each campus using continuation rates. In this report, a continuation rate is the ratio of continuing enrollment for a given program area to the previous fall semester's total enrollment for that same program area. Historical average continuation rates are applied to the total enrollment by program area to forecast the next year=s continuing enrollment. In addition to the high, middle and low projection series for each campus, detailed tables are included which project headcount enrollment, student semester hours (SSH) offered, and full-time equivalent (FTE) course enrollment by program. These tables utilize the Fall

4 2005 data plus the forecasted enrollments for Fall 2006 to Fall 2012 as input, then project the counts by program area using the Fall 2005 proportions across program areas. Full- Time Equivalent (FTE) course enrollment has been calculated by dividing the forecasted student semester hours offered by a constant (15). Headcount enrollment by attendance status for each campus is also provided. The distribution by attendance status is made using the Fall 2005 proportions. Figure 1 illustrates the historical headcount enrollment at the UH Community Colleges from Fall 1995 to Fall 2005 and the projected enrollment from Fall 2006 to Fall Figure 2 provides an enrollment index to facilitate comparison with other University of Hawai>i units and campuses (Fall 2005 = 100). Figure 3 presents the high, middle and low projection series, while Figure 4 shows the historical enrollment for the UH Community Colleges from inception through Fall 2005, with projected enrollment through A similar series of charts is provided for each UH Community College campus. In Fall 2002, the UH Community Colleges migrated to a new student registration system. Subsequently, there was a large increase in the percentage of invalid records on various measures, as well as other changes in the data that complicate the projection methodology. An attempt has been made to improve and correct these data where possible. The counts shown in this report for certain measures may not tie to similar counts reported elsewhere. ANALYSIS AND HIGHLIGHTS Total headcount enrollment for the University of Hawai>i Community Colleges decreased 2.6% in Fall 2005, to measure 25,233 students (Table 2 & Figure 1). Headcount enrollment is forecast (middle series) to decrease only slightly in Fall 2006, to 25,168 students, and to increase very slowly through 2012, at an annual average rate of about 0.5%. $ The high projection series allows for a 3.2% increase in enrollment for Fall 2006, to 26,038 students, with continued growth through Fall 2012 at an average annual rate of 1.1% (Table 1 & Figure 3). The low series allows for a 4.2% decline in enrollment in Fall 2006, to 24,175, with continued mild decline at an annual rate of 0.7%. The two alternate series provide for moderate enrollment growth on the high side and moderate decline on the low side. $ Enrollment grew rapidly from the founding of the UH Community Colleges in 1965 through Fall 1976, as new campuses were added and as the "baby boom" generation entered college (Figure 4). Except for a brief spike in , enrollment remained more or less stable between Fall 1976 and Fall Beginning in Fall 1989, enrollment began to grow rapidly, reaching the historical peak of 27,905 students in Fall Enrollment then declined for a number of years, falling to 23,777 students by Fall Since then, enrollment has entered another cycle of moderate growth. The long-term trend since Fall 1975 has been mildly upward. Due to recent decline, the enrollment forecast for the UH Community Colleges as a whole lies somewhat below this long term-trend line.

5 $ Hawai>i public high school seniors are forecast by the Hawai>i Department of Education to increase mildly through academic year , then to decline somewhat (Appendix A). The going rate of public high school students into the UH Community Colleges has been fairly stable in recent years at between 22.5% and 23%. Therefore, direct public entrants may be expected to increase only modestly through Fall 2007 (Table 2). Similarly, the WICHE forecast for Hawai i private high school graduates shows the number increasing through Academic Year , then declining (Appendix B). The number of direct private entrants into the UH Community Colleges may be expected to remain near current levels through the forecast period. Enrollment of first-time students from the U.S. mainland and foreign countries may be expected to increase moderately, helping to offset decline in local students. Overall, little growth in first-time freshmen may be anticipated. $ In contrast to first-time enrollment, transfer and returning enrollment show greater growth potential. However, a change in business practice at the UH Community Colleges has impacted the definition of a transfer student, thereby altering the way transfers are counted. This change increases the uncertainty of the transfer forecast and ultimately may require a modification of the methodology employed. $ Increases in tuition rates across the UH system will go into effect in Fall The impact these increases will have on enrollment is difficult to estimate. However, one possible result is that students may choose to avoid relatively higher tuition costs at the UH four-year campuses by enrolling at the UH Community Colleges. If realized, this pattern would result in higher than otherwise anticipated enrollments at the UH Community Colleges, especially in general education programs. PROJECTIONS BY CAMPUS Hawai>i Community College: After three years of strong growth, headcount enrollment at Hawai>i Community College declined 2.6% in Fall 2005, to 2,377 students (Table A2 & Figure A1). Overall, enrollment has shown a moderate upward trend since the mid-1970s (Figure A4). However, since Fall 1995, enrollment has remained between 2,000 and 2,500 students. Although first-time student enrollment has been stagnant since Fall 1999, transfer and returning student enrollment have posted solid gains. Continued growth in these areas gives the enrollment forecast some upward momentum (middle series). However, only modest gains may be anticipated. The high series allows for more robust growth, while the low series provides for moderate decline (Table A1 & Figure A3). Honolulu Community College: Headcount enrollment at Honolulu Community College declined 3.5% in Fall 2005 to 4,183 students (Table B2 & Figure B1). Enrollment has declined four out of the last seven years and is down 12.3% since Fall The long-term enrollment profile shows some peaks and valleys, but overall total enrollment has changed little since Fall 1976 (Figure B4). Mobilization of military forces based on O ahu may contribute to continued softness in enrollment demand in the immediate future. The middle series forecast calls for stable enrollment, with the high series allowing for some recovery and growth and the low series continuing the recent downward trend (Table B1 & Figure B3).

6 Kapi>olani Community College: Headcount enrollment at Kapi'olani Community College increased mildly in Fall 2005 to measure 7,289 students (Table C2 & Figure C1). First-time and transfer enrollment have declined since Fall 1999, while returning and continuing enrollment have increased. These shifts in enrollment between registration status categories reflect, at least in part, changes in data element definition and processing subsequent to the migration to the Banner registration system. Furthermore, these shifts increase uncertainty in the enrollment forecast, since the projection methodology is based upon registration status. However, although enrollment has fluctuated in recent years, the overall enrollment level has not changed very much since the early 1990s (Figure C4). Consequently, the enrollment forecast (middle series) calls for only moderate growth through Fall The high series provides for more robust growth, while the low series allows for moderate decline (Table C1 & Figure C3). Kaua>i Community College: Headcount enrollment at Kaua'i Community College declined 5.2% in Fall 2005 to measure 1,059 students (Table D2 & Figure D1). Enrollment has declined for three consecutive fall semesters, and is down 33% since Hurricane Iniki struck the island in Overall, the enrollment level in Fall 2005 was about the same as in Fall 1975 (Figure D4). Due to the recent downward momentum, enrollment has been forecast (middle series) to decline mildly through the projection period. The high series allows for modest recovery (though not to pre-iniki levels), while the low series provides for continued decline. Leeward Community College: Headcount enrollment at Leeward Community College declined 5.8% in Fall 2005 to measure 5,709 students, the second consecutive decline in fall semester enrollment (Table E2 & Figure E1). As with a number of other UH community colleges, enrollment has been up and down over the last several decades but overall has changed little since the mid-1970s (Figure E4). Due to the recent decline in enrollment, the forecast (middle series) calls for a 1.3% decrease in Fall 2006, with enrollment leveling out at about 5,600. The high series calls for a 3.7% increase in Fall 2006 with subsequent modest growth, while the low series provides for continued moderate decline. Maui Community College: Headcount enrollment at Maui Community College declined 3.1% in Fall 2005 to measure 2,903 students (Table F2 & Figure F1). Despite this decline, Maui CC continues to show a long-term growth trend in enrollment (Figure F4). Population increases and economic growth on the island of Maui may continue to generate strong demand. Overall enrollment has been forecast (middle series) to follow the long-term trend, declining slightly in Fall 2006, to 2,884 students, and then increasing at an annual rate of 1.6% through Fall The alternate series allow for more robust growth on the high side and moderate decline in Fall 2006 followed by slight growth on the low side. Windward Community College: Headcount enrollment at Windward Community College declined 3.5% in Fall 2005 to measure 1,713 students (Table G2 & Figure G1). Prior to the recent growth, which began in Fall 2001, enrollment had been stable for more than 20 years at around 1,500 students (Figure G4). Due to the recent decline, enrollment has been forecast (middle series) to decline through Fall 2007, then increase slowly. The high series provides for a 5.1% increase in enrollment in Fall 2006 with growth approaching 2,000 students by 2012, while the low series provides for continued moderate decline.

7 University of Hawai i Community Colleges Credit Students 30 Thousands Figure 1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Fall Semester Historical Projected Fall 2005 = 100 Figure 2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected (Middle Series) Fall Semester

8 University of Hawai i Community Colleges Credit Students 35 Thousands Figure 3 High, Middle and Low Projection Series Historical Projected Fall Semester High Middle Low 35 Thousands Figure 4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Fall Semester Historical Projected (Middle Series) Trend

9 TABLE 1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH PROJECTION SERIES UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROJECTION SERIES HIGH SERIES TOTAL... 25,233 26,038 26,653 27,045 27,361 27,561 27,713 27,863 Program... Liberal Arts... 12,114 12,592 12,906 13,085 13,220 13,308 13,382 13,454 Career & Technical Ed... 7,238 7,519 7,721 7,848 7,951 8,017 8,065 8,112 Unclassified... 2,487 2,425 2,450 2,471 2,498 2,518 2,530 2,544 Home-Based at Other UH.. 3,394 3,502 3,576 3,641 3,692 3,718 3,736 3,753 Registration Status... First Time... 5,449 5,674 5,694 5,620 5,602 5,585 5,577 5,589 Transfer... 4,079 3,662 3,727 3,792 3,858 3,882 3,908 3,933 Returning... 2,344 2,416 2,456 2,497 2,538 2,580 2,621 2,662 Continuing... 13,361 14,286 14,776 15,136 15,363 15,514 15,607 15,679 MIDDLE SERIES TOTAL 1/. 25,233 25,168 25,306 25,402 25,537 25,631 25,730 25,843 Program... Liberal Arts... 12,114 12,321 12,486 12,566 12,643 12,698 12,752 12,810 Career & Technical Ed... 7,238 7,339 7,429 7,485 7,538 7,574 7,603 7,635 Unclassified... 2,487 2,276 2,240 2,226 2,237 2,244 2,252 2,267 Home-Based at Other UH.. 3,394 3,232 3,151 3,125 3,119 3,115 3,123 3,131 Registration Status... First Time... 5,449 5,531 5,558 5,476 5,463 5,441 5,435 5,447 Transfer... 4,079 3,463 3,507 3,550 3,593 3,606 3,619 3,631 Returning... 2,344 2,267 2,307 2,348 2,389 2,431 2,472 2,513 Continuing... 13,361 13,907 13,934 14,028 14,092 14,153 14,204 14,252 LOW SERIES TOTAL... 25,233 24,175 23,729 23,452 23,316 23,219 23,165 23,139 Program... Liberal Arts... 12,114 11,792 11,649 11,535 11,476 11,428 11,403 11,389 Career & Technical Ed... 7,238 7,121 7,071 7,030 7,009 6,997 6,989 6,986 Unclassified... 2,487 2,175 2,095 2,055 2,044 2,033 2,027 2,026 Home-Based at Other UH.. 3,394 3,087 2,914 2,832 2,787 2,761 2,746 2,738 Registration Status... First Time... 5,449 5,171 5,186 5,103 5,087 5,062 5,052 5,059 Transfer... 4,079 3,163 3,189 3,215 3,242 3,242 3,242 3,242 Returning... 2,344 2,192 2,192 2,192 2,192 2,192 2,192 2,192 Continuing... 13,361 13,649 13,162 12,942 12,795 12,723 12,679 12,646 1/ The remaining tables in the report use the Middle Projection Series.

10 TABLE 2 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 1999 TO FALL 2012 REGISTRATION STATUS HISTORICAL PROJECTED AND PROGRAM AREA UH Community College Total... 25,390 23,777 24,809 25,593 26,344 25,898 25,233 25,168 25,306 25,402 25,537 25,631 25,730 25,843 Liberal Arts 1/... 14,073 13,324 13,675 14,446 13,705 12,603 12,114 12,321 12,486 12,566 12,643 12,698 12,752 12,810 Career & Technical Ed 1/... 9,122 8,440 8,446 7,877 7,374 7,478 7,238 7,339 7,429 7,485 7,538 7,574 7,603 7,635 Unclassified... 2,195 2,013 2,688 3,270 2,405 2,482 2,487 2,276 2,240 2,226 2,237 2,244 2,252 2,267 Home-Based at Other UH 2/... 2,860 3,335 3,394 3,232 3,151 3,125 3,119 3,115 3,123 3,131 First-Time By HS Background 3/... 6,176 5,253 5,661 5,602 5,276 5,110 5,449 5,531 5,558 5,476 5,463 5,441 5,435 5,447 Direct from HI Public HS... 2,767 2,478 2,338 2,448 2,386 2,414 2,509 2,586 2,612 2,484 2,473 2,456 2,455 2,462 Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 4/... 2,144 1,594 2,037 2,020 1,883 1,825 1,846 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 1,843 First-Time, By Program... 6,176 5,253 5,661 5,602 5,276 5,110 5,449 5,531 5,558 5,476 5,463 5,441 5,435 5,447 Liberal Arts... 3,416 2,901 3,128 3,288 3,166 2,795 2,880 2,995 3,006 2,957 2,945 2,933 2,928 2,931 Career & Technical Ed... 2,059 1,779 1,771 1,518 1,409 1,509 1,447 1,565 1,574 1,554 1,552 1,549 1,548 1,554 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH Transfer... 3,019 3,034 3,484 3,758 2,758 2,281 4,079 3,463 3,507 3,550 3,593 3,606 3,619 3,631 Liberal Arts... 1,761 1,740 1,912 2,039 1,540 1,180 1,420 1,531 1,553 1,572 1,592 1,601 1,608 1,616 Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH , Returning... 1,959 1,940 2,276 2,303 2,152 2,024 2,344 2,267 2,307 2,348 2,389 2,431 2,472 2,513 Liberal Arts... 1,119 1,075 1,247 1,279 1,212 1,062 1,195 1,176 1,196 1,216 1,237 1,257 1,278 1,297 Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH

11 TABLE 2 (cont.) REGISTRATION STATUS HISTORICAL PROJECTED AND PROGRAM AREA Continuing... 14,236 13,550 13,388 13,930 16,158 16,483 13,361 13,907 13,934 14,028 14,092 14,153 14,204 14,252 Liberal Arts... 7,777 7,608 7,388 7,840 7,787 7,566 6,619 6,619 6,731 6,821 6,869 6,907 6,938 6,966 Career & Technical Ed... 5,646 5,211 5,183 4,857 4,679 4,706 4,119 4,225 4,287 4,343 4,378 4,403 4,419 4,431 Unclassified ,233 1, Home-Based at Other UH... 2,605 3,238 1,807 2,201 2,109 2,074 2,057 2,054 2,057 2,062 1/ Industrial Ed at Honolulu CC moved from Liberal Studies to Public Services in Fall Totals for prior years have not been adjusted. 2/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not the campus at which registered for classes. Data first available in Fall / Breakouts for Fall 2002 to Fall 2004 have been adjusted with information taken from Datamart; therefore, counts may not tie to those reported elsewhere. 4/ Includes GED, students from Hawai i who are not recent high school graduates and records with invalid high school code.

12 TABLE 3 ENROLLMENT INDEX: HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 1999 TO FALL 2012 (FALL 2005 = 100) HISTORICAL PROJECTED CAMPUS UH COMMUNITY COLLEGES HAWAI I CC HONOLULU CC KAPI OLANI CC KAUA I CC LEEWARD CC MAUI CC WINDWARD CC

13 TABLE 4 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY CAMPUS AND REGISTRATION STATUS MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 1999 TO FALL 2012 CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS UHCC TOTAL... 25,390 23,777 24,809 25,593 26,344 25,898 25,233 25,168 25,306 25,402 25,537 25,631 25,730 25,843 First Time... 6,176 5,253 5,661 5,602 5,276 5,110 5,449 5,531 5,558 5,476 5,463 5,441 5,435 5,447 Transfer... 3,019 3,034 3,484 3,758 2,758 2,281 4,079 3,463 3,507 3,550 3,593 3,606 3,619 3,631 Returning... 1,959 1,940 2,276 2,303 2,152 2,024 2,344 2,267 2,307 2,348 2,389 2,431 2,472 2,513 Continuing... 14,236 13,550 13,388 13,930 16,158 16,483 13,361 13,907 13,934 14,028 14,092 14,153 14,204 14,252 HAWAI I CC... 2,279 2,090 2,075 2,182 2,346 2,440 2,377 2,378 2,387 2,412 2,443 2,461 2,480 2,502 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,221 1,113 1,109 1,179 1,262 1,341 1,255 1,302 1,303 1,308 1,322 1,322 1,322 1,322 HONOLULU CC... 4,769 4,487 4,653 4,478 4,238 4,336 4,183 4,235 4,269 4,261 4,254 4,244 4,233 4,228 First Time... 1, Transfer , Returning Continuing... 2,807 2,724 2,811 2,580 2,741 2,729 1,784 2,230 2,254 2,271 2,266 2,263 2,257 2,252 KAPI OLANI CC... 7,254 6,760 7,081 7,041 7,491 7,174 7,289 7,293 7,343 7,381 7,433 7,485 7,539 7,601 First Time... 1,351 1,171 1,298 1,199 1, ,181 1,185 1,199 1,175 1,169 1,157 1,147 1,143 Transfer... 1,242 1,153 1,382 1, Returning Continuing... 4,149 3,977 3,867 4,004 4,883 5,023 4,430 4,490 4,494 4,524 4,550 4,581 4,613 4,647 KAUA I CC... 1,142 1,052 1,185 1,224 1,210 1,117 1,059 1,047 1,037 1,037 1,034 1,031 1,030 1,029 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing

14 TABLE 4 (cont.) CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS LEEWARD CC... 5,570 5,259 5,562 5,918 6,201 6,060 5,709 5,635 5,628 5,594 5,576 5,567 5,573 5,580 First Time... 1,290 1,084 1,270 1,370 1,382 1,333 1,298 1,352 1,371 1,334 1,331 1,330 1,336 1,343 Transfer Returning Continuing... 3,253 3,042 2,989 3,239 3,776 3,848 3,162 3,040 3,014 3,017 3,002 2,994 2,994 2,994 MAUI CC... 2,862 2,678 2,699 2,989 2,985 2,996 2,903 2,884 2,953 3,028 3,102 3,141 3,164 3,180 First Time... 1, Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,415 1,376 1,295 1,464 1,733 1,796 1,326 1,440 1,468 1,513 1,556 1,594 1,617 1,631 WINDWARD CC... 1,514 1,451 1,554 1,761 1,873 1,775 1,713 1,696 1,689 1,689 1,695 1,702 1,711 1,723 First Time Transfer Returning Continuing ,092 1, Note: Continuing includes records with invalid data on registration status.

15 TABLE 5 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY CAMPUS AND PROGRAM AREA MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 1999 TO FALL 2012 CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED PROGRAM AREA UHCC TOTAL... 25,390 23,777 24,809 25,593 26,344 25,898 25,233 25,168 25,306 25,402 25,537 25,631 25,730 25,843 Liberal Arts 1/... 14,073 13,324 13,675 14,446 13,705 12,603 12,114 12,321 12,486 12,566 12,643 12,698 12,752 12,810 Career & Technical Ed 1/... 9,122 8,440 8,446 7,877 7,374 7,478 7,238 7,339 7,429 7,485 7,538 7,574 7,603 7,635 Unclassified... 2,195 2,013 2,688 3,270 2,405 2,482 2,487 2,276 2,240 2,226 2,237 2,244 2,252 2,267 Home-Based at Other UH 2/ 2,860 3,335 3,394 3,232 3,151 3,125 3,119 3,115 3,123 3,131 HAWAI I CC... 2,279 2,090 2,075 2,182 2,346 2,440 2,377 2,378 2,387 2,412 2,443 2,461 2,480 2,502 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,271 1,126 1,137 1,210 1,261 1,298 1,261 1,255 1,257 1,268 1,283 1,293 1,304 1,316 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH HONOLULU CC... 4,769 4,487 4,653 4,478 4,238 4,336 4,183 4,235 4,269 4,261 4,254 4,244 4,233 4,228 Liberal Arts 1/... 1,715 1,589 1,657 1,535 1,157 1,114 1,075 1,101 1,115 1,113 1,111 1,108 1,105 1,104 Career & Technical Ed 1/... 2,751 2,624 2,681 2,586 2,286 2,276 2,232 2,262 2,284 2,281 2,278 2,273 2,267 2,264 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH KAPI OLANI CC... 7,254 6,760 7,081 7,041 7,491 7,174 7,289 7,293 7,343 7,381 7,433 7,485 7,539 7,601 Liberal Arts... 4,535 4,276 4,343 4,325 4,156 3,549 3,516 3,556 3,606 3,640 3,676 3,708 3,740 3,775 Career & Technical Ed... 2,296 2,135 2,068 1,878 1,720 1,692 1,545 1,530 1,529 1,531 1,538 1,547 1,557 1,569 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH... 1,005 1,136 1,284 1,289 1,283 1,283 1,285 1,287 1,292 1,298 KAUA I CC... 1,142 1,052 1,185 1,224 1,210 1,117 1,059 1,047 1,037 1,037 1,034 1,031 1,030 1,029 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH LEEWARD CC... 5,570 5,259 5,562 5,918 6,201 6,060 5,709 5,635 5,628 5,594 5,576 5,567 5,573 5,580 Liberal Arts... 3,991 3,779 3,958 4,312 4,203 3,936 3,736 3,812 3,866 3,869 3,869 3,868 3,872 3,877 Career & Technical Ed... 1,167 1,078 1,112 1, Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH

16 TABLE 5 (cont.) CAMPUS AND HISTORICAL PROJECTED PROGRAM AREA MAUI CC... 2,862 2,678 2,699 2,989 2,985 2,996 2,903 2,884 2,953 3,028 3,102 3,141 3,164 3,180 Liberal Arts... 1,129 1, ,291 1,258 1,195 1,183 1,221 1,258 1,288 1,317 1,333 1,342 1,347 Career & Technical Ed... 1,166 1,073 1, ,028 1,072 1,108 1,139 1,159 1,172 1,182 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH WINDWARD CC... 1,514 1,451 1,554 1,761 1,873 1,775 1,713 1,696 1,689 1,689 1,695 1,702 1,711 1,723 Liberal Arts... 1,307 1,244 1,336 1,526 1,499 1,421 1,338 1,380 1,400 1,412 1,421 1,428 1,435 1,444 Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH / Industrial Ed at Honolulu CC moved from Liberal Studies to Public Services in Fall Totals for prior years have not been adjusted and may not tie to figures reported elsewhere. 2/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not the campus at which registered for classes. Data first available in Fall 2003.

17 TABLE 6 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY ATTENDANCE STATUS MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I, COMMUNITY COLLEGES FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED ATTENDANCE STATUS UHCC TOTAL... 25,233 25,168 25,306 25,402 25,537 25,631 25,730 25,843 Full-time... 9,935 9,904 9,960 9,997 10,050 10,086 10,127 10,171 Part-time... 15,298 15,264 15,346 15,405 15,487 15,545 15,603 15,672 HAWAI I CC... 2,377 2,378 2,387 2,412 2,443 2,461 2,480 2,502 Full-time... 1,085 1,085 1,090 1,101 1,115 1,123 1,132 1,142 Part-time... 1,292 1,293 1,297 1,311 1,328 1,338 1,348 1,360 HONOLULU CC... 4,183 4,235 4,269 4,261 4,254 4,244 4,233 4,228 Full-time... 1,536 1,555 1,568 1,565 1,562 1,558 1,554 1,553 Part-time... 2,647 2,680 2,701 2,696 2,692 2,686 2,679 2,675 KAPI OLANI CC... 7,289 7,293 7,343 7,381 7,433 7,485 7,539 7,601 Full-time... 2,640 2,641 2,660 2,673 2,692 2,711 2,731 2,753 Part-time... 4,649 4,652 4,683 4,708 4,741 4,774 4,808 4,848 KAUA I CC... 1,059 1,047 1,037 1,037 1,034 1,031 1,030 1,029 Full-time Part-time LEEWARD CC... 5,709 5,635 5,628 5,594 5,576 5,567 5,573 5,580 Full-time... 2,376 2,345 2,342 2,328 2,321 2,317 2,319 2,322 Part-time... 3,333 3,290 3,286 3,266 3,255 3,250 3,254 3,258 MAUI CC... 2,903 2,884 2,953 3,028 3,102 3,141 3,164 3,180 Full-time... 1,163 1,155 1,183 1,213 1,243 1,258 1,268 1,274 Part-time... 1,740 1,729 1,770 1,815 1,859 1,883 1,896 1,906 WINDWARD CC... 1,713 1,696 1,689 1,689 1,695 1,702 1,711 1,723 Full-time Part-time Note: Part-Time includes records with invalid data on attendance status.

18 Hawai i Community College Credit Students 3.0 Thousands Figure A1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Fall Semester Projected (Middle Series) Fall 2005 = 100 Figure A2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected (Middle Series) Fall Semester

19 Hawai i Community College Credit Students 3.5 Thousands Figure A3 High, Middle and Low Projection Series Historical Projected Fall Semester High Middle Low 3.5 Thousands Figure A4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Fall Semester Projected (Middle Series)

20 TABLE A1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH PROJECTION SERIES HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROJECTION SERIES HIGH SERIES TOTAL... 2,377 2,460 2,523 2,588 2,652 2,680 2,709 2,741 Program: Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,261 1,287 1,310 1,337 1,366 1,380 1,394 1,410 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Registration Status: First Time Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,255 1,310 1,355 1,390 1,426 1,426 1,426 1,426 MIDDLE SERIES TOTAL 2/... 2,377 2,378 2,387 2,412 2,443 2,461 2,480 2,502 By Program: Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,261 1,255 1,257 1,268 1,283 1,293 1,304 1,316 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Registration Status: First Time Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,255 1,302 1,303 1,308 1,322 1,322 1,322 1,322 LOW SERIES TOTAL... 2,377 2,269 2,211 2,188 2,177 2,178 2,180 2,183 Program: Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,261 1,233 1,213 1,205 1,200 1,201 1,202 1,203 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Registration Status: First Time Transfer Returning Continuing... 1,255 1,262 1,212 1,184 1,172 1,172 1,172 1,172 1/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Hawai i Community College. 2/ The remaining tables in the report use the Middle Projection Series.

21 TABLE A2 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 1999 TO FALL 2012 HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS TOTAL... 2,279 2,090 2,075 2,182 2,346 2,440 2,377 2,378 2,387 2,412 2,443 2,461 2,480 2,502 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,271 1,126 1,137 1,210 1,261 1,298 1,261 1,255 1,257 1,268 1,283 1,293 1,304 1,316 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ First-Time By HS Background 2/ Direct from HI Public HS Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 3/ First-Time, By Program Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Transfer Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Returning Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/

22 TABLE A2 (cont.) HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS Continuing... 1,221 1,113 1,109 1,179 1,262 1,341 1,255 1,302 1,303 1,308 1,322 1,322 1,322 1,322 Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ / Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Hawai i Community College. 2/ Breakouts for Fall 2002 to Fall 2004 have been adjusted with information taken from Datamart; therefore, counts may not tie to those reported elsewhere. 3/ Includes GED, students from Hawai i who are not recent high school graduates and records with invalid high school code.

23 TABLE A3 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT, BY PROGRAM MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total Students... 2,377 2,378 2,387 2,412 2,443 2,461 2,480 2,502 General & Pre Prof Ed Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed... 1,261 1,255 1,257 1,268 1,283 1,293 1,304 1,316 Business Food Services Health Services Public Services Technology Unclassified Regular Unclassified 1/ Home-Based Other UH 2/ Special Students Early Admit / Includes records with invalid data on education level. 2/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Hawai i Community College.

24 TABLE A4 STUDENT SEMESTER HOURS OFFERED, BY PROGRAM MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 22,207 22,141 22,183 22,392 22,667 22,842 23,024 23,226 General Education... 14,603 14,553 14,592 14,735 14,919 15,030 15,146 15,280 Humanities... 8,409 8,388 8,402 8,487 8,593 8,659 8,724 8,802 Natural Sciences... 3,687 3,668 3,673 3,705 3,750 3,779 3,808 3,842 Social Sciences... 2,353 2,350 2,364 2,390 2,420 2,436 2,457 2,477 Other General Education Career & Technical Ed... 7,604 7,588 7,591 7,657 7,748 7,812 7,878 7,946 Business... 1,917 1,913 1,911 1,933 1,952 1,969 1,985 2,003 Food Services Health Services Public Services... 1,293 1,295 1,291 1,306 1,321 1,334 1,341 1,354 Technology... 2,944 2,932 2,939 2,961 3,001 3,021 3,048 3,076 TABLE A5 FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT COURSE ENROLLMENT SERVED, BY PROGRAM MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HAWAI I COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 1,476 1,476 1,478 1,492 1,510 1,522 1,534 1,549 General Education ,001 1,010 1,019 Humanities Natural Sciences Social Sciences Other General Education Career & Technical Ed Business Food Services Health Services Public Services Technology

25 Honolulu Community College Credit Students 6 Thousands Figure B1 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Historical Fall Semester Projected (Middle Series) Fall 2005 = 100 Figure B2 Enrollment Index Historical Projected (Middle Series) Fall Semester

26 Honolulu Community College Credit Students 6 Thousands Figure B3 High, Middle and Low Projection Series Historical Projected Fall Semester High Middle Low 6 Thousands Figure B4 Historical and Projected Headcount Enrollment Fall Semester Historical Projected (Middle Series)

27 TABLE B1 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS LOW, MIDDLE AND HIGH PROJECTION SERIES HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROJECTION SERIES HIGH SERIES TOTAL... 4,183 4,379 4,486 4,518 4,529 4,533 4,531 4,531 Program: Liberal Arts... 1,075 1,148 1,181 1,188 1,189 1,189 1,187 1,187 Career & Technical Ed... 2,232 2,337 2,397 2,415 2,422 2,424 2,422 2,422 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Registration Status: First Time Transfer... 1, Returning Continuing... 1,784 2,230 2,330 2,384 2,400 2,407 2,410 2,409 MIDDLE SERIES TOTAL 2/... 4,183 4,235 4,269 4,261 4,254 4,244 4,233 4,228 Program: Liberal Arts... 1,075 1,101 1,115 1,113 1,111 1,108 1,105 1,104 Career & Technical Ed... 2,232 2,262 2,284 2,281 2,278 2,273 2,267 2,264 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Registration Status: First Time Transfer... 1, Returning Continuing... 1,784 2,230 2,254 2,271 2,266 2,263 2,257 2,252 LOW SERIES TOTAL... 4,183 4,008 3,940 3,885 3,855 3,832 3,817 3,808 Program: Liberal Arts... 1, Career & Technical Ed... 2,232 2,177 2,154 2,129 2,113 2,102 2,094 2,090 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 1/ Registration Status: First Time Transfer... 1, Returning Continuing... 1,784 2,151 2,075 2,043 2,015 1,998 1,986 1,978 1/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Honolulu Community College. 2/ The remaining tables in the report use the Middle Projection Series.

28 TABLE B2 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT OF CREDIT STUDENTS, BY REGISTRATION STATUS MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 1999 TO FALL 2012 HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS TOTAL 1/... 4,769 4,487 4,653 4,478 4,238 4,336 4,183 4,235 4,269 4,261 4,254 4,244 4,233 4,228 Liberal Arts 2/... 1,715 1,589 1,657 1,535 1,157 1,114 1,075 1,101 1,115 1,113 1,111 1,108 1,105 1,104 Career & Technical Ed 2/... 2,751 2,624 2,681 2,586 2,286 2,276 2,232 2,262 2,284 2,281 2,278 2,273 2,267 2,264 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 3/ First-Time By HS Background 4/. 1, Direct from HI Public HS Direct from HI Private HS U.S. Mainland Foreign & U.S. Related Areas Other First-Time Freshmen 5/ First-Time, By Program... 1, Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 3/ Transfer , Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 3/ Returning Liberal Arts Career & Technical Ed Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 3/

29 TABLE B2 (cont.) HISTORICAL PROJECTED REGISTRATION STATUS Continuing... 2,807 2,724 2,811 2,580 2,741 2,729 1,784 2,230 2,254 2,271 2,266 2,263 2,257 2,252 Liberal Arts... 1, Career & Technical Ed... 1,697 1,670 1,737 1,705 1,459 1,360 1,033 1,170 1,186 1,198 1,196 1,195 1,192 1,189 Unclassified Home-Based at Other UH 3/ / SOCAD (military continuing education) students added to general enrollment counts, beginning Fall / Industrial Ed moved from Liberal Arts to Career & Tech Ed in Fall Numbers for prior years not revised. 3/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Honolulu Community College. 4/ Breakouts for Fall 2002 to Fall 2004 have been adjusted with information taken from Datamart; therefore, counts may not tie to those reported elsewhere. 5/ Includes GED, students from Hawai i who are not recent high school graduates and records with invalid high school code.

30 TABLE B3 HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT, BY PROGRAM MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total Students... 4,183 4,235 4,269 4,261 4,254 4,244 4,233 4,228 General & Pre-Prof Ed... 1,075 1,101 1,115 1,113 1,111 1,108 1,105 1,104 Liberal Arts... 1,075 1,101 1,115 1,113 1,111 1,108 1,105 1,104 Career & Technical Ed... 2,232 2,262 2,284 2,281 2,278 2,273 2,267 2,264 Public Services Technology... 1,619 1,641 1,657 1,655 1,652 1,649 1,644 1,642 Unclassified Regular Unclassified 1/ Home-Based Other UH 2/ Special Students Early Admit / Includes records with invalid data on education level. 2/ Students whose home-campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is not Honolulu Community College.

31 TABLE B4 STUDENT SEMESTER HOURS OFFERED, BY PROGRAM MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 35,989 36,294 36,626 36,564 36,508 36,419 36,327 36,281 General Education... 21,012 21,107 21,297 21,255 21,220 21,167 21,114 21,089 Humanities... 10,061 9,993 10,087 10,067 10,051 10,026 10,001 9,989 Natural Sciences... 7,378 7,497 7,560 7,547 7,534 7,515 7,496 7,487 Social Sciences... 3,447 3,490 3,522 3,513 3,508 3,499 3,491 3,487 Other General Education Career & Technical Ed... 14,977 15,187 15,329 15,309 15,288 15,252 15,213 15,192 Business... 1,353 1,370 1,383 1,381 1,380 1,376 1,373 1,371 Health Services Public Services... 3,542 3,593 3,626 3,620 3,619 3,607 3,602 3,596 Technology... 9,039 9,164 9,251 9,240 9,222 9,206 9,177 9,166 Other Vocational TABLE B5 FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT COURSE ENROLLMENT SERVED, BY PROGRAM MIDDLE PROJECTION SERIES HONOLULU COMMUNITY COLLEGE FALL 2005 TO FALL 2012 ACTUAL PROJECTED PROGRAM Total... 2,401 2,420 2,442 2,437 2,433 2,427 2,423 2,418 General Education... 1,402 1,407 1,420 1,417 1,414 1,410 1,408 1,405 Humanities Natural Sciences Social Sciences Other General Education Career & Technical Ed ,013 1,022 1,020 1,019 1,017 1,015 1,013 Business Health Services Public Services Technology Other Vocational