Texas Population Trends, Characteristics, &Projections

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1 Texas Population Trends, Characteristics, &Projections Texas State University MPA Course San Marcos, TX September 12, 2016

2 Demography the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above. ~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis,

3 The Population Research Institute, 2.1 Kids: Stable Population 3

4 The Office of the State Demographer disseminates demographic and related socioeconomic data to the State of Texas and the general public. The State Demographer s Office monitors demographic and socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas government. Special emphasis is placed on data that may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues regarding the demand for state services.

5 Meeting the Mission Data Portal, Publications, and Reports demographics.texas.gov Population Estimates and Projections Program demographics.texas.gov/data/tpepp/ Public Presentations demographics.texas.gov/presentations Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings Data Requests Custom Research Projects Annual Texas Demography Conference and Applied Demography Conference 5

6 Demographic Overview Texas is experiencing significant growth. Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth is not geographically evenly distributed. Growth is not racially/ethnically evenly distributed. Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic population. The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging. The components of population change have varying implications for infrastructure in Texas. Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious implications for the future Texas economy. 6

7 Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, Migration Natural Increase 10.5% 13.3% 58.5% 34.1% 50.3% 46.3% 89.5% 86.7% 41.5% 65.9% 49.7% 53.7% 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 5

8 Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000, 2010, and Hispanic, 32% NH Other, NH Black, 1% 11% NH Asian, 3% NH White, 53% Hispanic, 38% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 4% NH Black, 12% NH White, 45% Hispanic, 39% 2015 NH Black, 12% NH Other, 2% NH Asian, 5% NH White, 43% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000, 2010 Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates 11

9 Population Projections, Texas, Millions Projected Population in Texas, 2010 to 2050 Zero Migration 0.5 Migration 1.0 Migration Millions Projected Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2014 Projections 9

10 A Profile of International Migrants in Texas 10 10

11 Immigrants have been an important source of population growth in the U.S. Migration can alter a population s age structure. Young adults ages years most likely to move in a given year. Migration can also alter a population s race/ethnic composition. Historically, Texas immigrants have been more homogeneous compared to other states. More recently, Texas has increasingly been a destination for immigrants of more diverse backgrounds. These trends, if they persist, would yield a more diverse population in Texas. 11

12 Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the U.S.,

13 Percent of Non Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 10 Immigrant States, Virginia 13.9% 17.3% 43.7% 25.1% Arizona 44.6% 30.0% 8.2% 17.1% Washington 17.4% 56.1% 12.2% 14.3% Massachusetts 23.3% 49.3% 17.1% 10.3% New Jersey 36.0% 46.4% 10.3% 7.4% Illinois 24.6% 50.9% 15.8% 8.7% Florida 60.7% 16.0% 12.0% 11.3% New York 30.9% 41.3% 17.6% 10.2% Texas 56.1% 28.3% 7.6% 8.0% California 30.2% 53.6% 10.0% 6.2% Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other 13

14 Annual Shares of Recent Non Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth,

15 Projecting the educational attainment of the Texas labor force 15

16 Employment Status of the Labor Force by Educational Attainment, Texas 100% Percent employed 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% Bachelor's Degree and Above Some College/ Associate Degree High School or Equivalent Less than High School 88% Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau to 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data 16

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18 Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011 Level of Educational Attainment Percent of persons aged 25 years and older State Ranking High school diploma or equivalency or greater 81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA and MS) Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One year Sample,

19 Percent of persons aged 25 years and older with a high school degree or higher, Texas, % 81.0% 80.7% 81.1% 80.5% 80.0% 79.5% 79.0% 78.5% 78.6% 79.1% 79.6% 79.9% 78.0% 77.5% 77.0%

20 Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25 64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% White Black Hispanic Other 60% 55% 50% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample,

21 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35.0% 30.0% 31.3% 29.9% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 18.1% 23.8% 24.0% 20.1% 2030 Constant 2011 % 18.7% 9.8% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1 Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 21

22 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25 64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40.0% 35.0% 31.3% 34.3% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.0% 11.4% 23.8% 20.4% 2030 Trended ( Trend) 22.1% 20.1% 11.8% 9.8% 5.0% 0.0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN These should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1 Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario 22

23 America's Electoral Future: How changing demographics could impact future presidential elections, 2016 to

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25 Lila Valencia, Ph.D. Office: (512) Internet: 25

46 Children s Defense Fund

46 Children s Defense Fund Nationally, about 1 in 15 teens ages 16 to 19 is a dropout. Fewer than two-thirds of 9 th graders in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Nevada graduate from high school within four years with a regular diploma.