Participation Forecast

Transcription

1 Participation Forecast (formerly Study Paper 27, Enrollment Forecast) Texas Institutions of Higher Education Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Division of Planning and Accountability P.O. Box Austin, TX (512) January 2007

2 Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Robert W. Shepard (Chairman) Neal W. Adams (Vice Chairman) Lorraine Perryman (Secretary of the Board) Laurie Bricker Paul Foster Fred W. Heldenfels IV Joe B. Hinton George McWilliams Elaine Mendoza Nancy Neal Lyn Bracewell Phillips Curtis E. Ransom A.W. Whit Riter III Harlingen Bedford Odessa Houston El Paso Austin Crawford Texarkana San Antonio Lubbock Bastrop Dallas Tyler Commissioner of Higher Education Raymund A. Paredes Mission of the Coordinating Board The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board s mission is to work with the Legislature, Governor, governing boards, higher education institutions and other entities to help Texas meet the goals of the state s higher education plan, Closing the Gaps by 2015, and thereby provide the people of Texas the widest access to higher education of the highest quality in the most efficient manner. Philosophy of the Coordinating Board The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board will promote access to quality higher education across the state with the conviction that access without quality is mediocrity and that quality without access is unacceptable. The Board will be open, ethical, responsive, and committed to public service. The Board will approach its work with a sense of purpose and responsibility to the people of Texas and is committed to the best use of public monies. The Coordinating Board will engage in actions that add value to Texas and to higher education. The agency will avoid efforts that do not add value or that are duplicated by other entities. The Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age or disability in employment or the provision of services.

3 Participation Forecast Table of Contents Foreword...iii Participation in Texas Colleges and Universities to Texas Public College and University Participation Forecasts...23 List of Tables Table 1: Fall Headcount Participation Forecasts Texas Institutions of Higher Education...3 Table 2: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Participation...3 Table 3: Participation Projections by Region Texas Public Institutions of Higher Education...5 Table 4: All Headcount Participation Forecasts Texas Public Universities...12 Table 5: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Participation Public Universities...14 Table 6: Fall Headcount Participation Forecasts Two-year Colleges...16 Table 7: Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Participation Public Two-Year Colleges...19 Table 8 Fall In-State Participation by Age and Race/Ethnicity Public Universities Table 9: In-State and Nonresident Participation for Public Universities...25 Table 10: Fall In-State Participation by Age and Race/Ethnicity Public Two-year Colleges...26 Table 11: In-State and Nonresident Participation for Public Two-year Colleges...26 Table 12: Texas Statewide Population by Race/Ethnicity...28 Table 13: In-State Participation Alternative Forecasts Public Universities...31 Table 14: In-State Participation Alternative Forecasts Public Two-year Colleges...32 Table 15: In-State Participation Public Universities Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Participation for Table 16: In-State Participation Public Two-year Colleges Comparison of Preliminary to Forecast In-State Participation for Table 17: Nonresident Participation Ratios Public Universities...39 Table 18: Nonresident Participation Ratios Public Two-year Colleges...40 Table 19: Adjustments to Draft Participation Forecasts Based on Local Conditions...42 Table 20: Actual Participation...43 Table 21: Independent Senior College and University Forecast...44 i

4 List of Figures Figure 1: Public Institution Participation Forecast... iii Figure 2: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Ten Regions...4 Figure 3: Participation Forecast Development Process...22 ii

5 Participation Forecast Foreword Biennially since 1979, the Coordinating Board (CB) has calculated enrollment trends and expectations which are fundamental to higher education planning. In times of changing demographics, these forecasts become even more critical as they inform the higher education community and the state of anticipated enrollment if current patterns continue. The Participation Forecast is the 15th installment in the Coordinating Board s series on this important topic. Participation Forecast The methodology used to produce the participation forecast has remained relatively unchanged since It is based on application of past enrollment to population ratios by geographic location, age, and race/ethnicity to future population projections. Possible future differences in the rate of high school graduation, increases in higher education participation by racial/ethnic groups, or changes in local policies are not incorporated into this methodology. For that reason, the forecast is conservative; it projects future enrollments if current trends continue. Figure 1 The participation goal of Coordinating Board s Closing the Gaps by 2015 higher education plan, in contrast, is based on what enrollments should be to achieve improved participation rates and to achieve equal participation rates for students of all ethnic/racial groups. The Texas State Data Center s most recent population projections indicate that the Texas population, as a whole, will continue to grow. As a result, the Coordinating Board updated its Closing the Gaps participation goal and targets. The 2015 participation goal was raised from enrolling 500,000 more students than in fall 2000 to 630,000 more students. Most of this increase is the result of growth in Texas Hispanic population, which is projected to grow even more rapidly than previously thought. Unfortunately, according to this forecast, Hispanic enrollments are not projected to increase proportionally. iii

6 In an effort to urge institutions to meet the participation goal, the Coordinating Board asked each public institution to submit ambitious institutional targets for participation (called Institutional Closing the Gaps Targets). Figure 1 demonstrates the difference between the enrollment forecast projected in this document, the CB s Closing the Gaps (CTG) goals, and the Institutional Closing the Gaps Targets. Comparison of the targets set by institutions with the Participation Forecast and state goals indicate that Texas is not yet on track to meet its Closing the Gaps goal. This forecast estimates Texas institutions will enroll 1.29 million students in 2015 (or an additional 321,000 students over 2000). If true, the state would be about 308,000 students short of the 2015 Closing the Gaps goal of 1.6 million students. The Coordinating Board has stated that if any group does not reach its goal, the state as a whole has not achieved its goal. A Note of Caution The following points should be considered when reviewing this forecast: The Texas State Data Center (TSDC) changed its recommended population forecast version for long-term projections. The 2004 Participation Forecast used the net migration pattern as a basis for its enrollment projections. This 2006 Forecast uses net migration rates that are one-half of those experienced during the timeframe, as suggested by TSDC. As a result, the total population forecast for 2015 used in this report is 6.8 percent lower than the forecasted Texas population used for the 2004 Participation Forecast. For the college-going age group, the difference is 9.6 percent lower. Because the population forecast is an integral part of the projection methodology, the lower projected population has a pronounced effect on anticipated enrollments. The other primary factor influencing projected participation is recent enrollment trends. Enrollment growth at public and independent colleges and universities from 2000 to 2002 was 11.9 percent, whereas the enrollment growth from 2004 to 2006 was only 3.1 percent. This much lower rate of growth is also reflected in the projected enrollments. Together the lower population projections and the flattening of enrollment growth result in 2015 enrollments that are lower than those forecast two years ago. The forecast model is influenced strongly by historical in-state participation patterns at each institution and projected population changes by county. Therefore, these forecasts may not accurately reflect future participation because institutions may recruit students from different areas or of different ethnic groups, and institutions may change or impose enrollment limitations. iv

7 Economics affect participation. Participation has usually expanded in times of increasing unemployment, in part because students want to prepare for better jobs. Also, the availability of financial aid influences students decisions to enter or return to college. Tuition at most institutions have increased recently, and enrollment growth plateaued, perhaps in response to higher costs. v

8 Participation Forecast Participation in Texas Colleges and Universities to 2020 About 1,190,000 students enrolled in Texas public and independent colleges and universities in fall 2006, representing a 2.1 percent increase over fall 2005 enrollment. This growth rate was an improvement over the nearly static fall to-fall 2005 level of 0.9 percent, but considerably less than the annual growth rate of over 5 percent experienced in fall 2000 and fall The recent decline in enrollment growths affects participation forecast because the model relies on recent trends to project future levels. This forecast is also based on new population projections from the Texas State Data Center, which anticipate slower growth than estimated previously. Together these factors mean that enrollments projected in this report are lower than the 2004 estimate. For the five-year period from 2005 to 2010, the forecast anticipates a growth rate of only 7 percent, or about 80,000 additional students. In the two following five-year increments, a further reduction in growth is projected. From 2010 to 2015, enrollment is estimated to increase by 3.4 percent (or an additional 42,000 students), and by 4.4 percent from 2015 to 2020 (or 56,000 more students). If current trends continue, Texas public and independent colleges and universities are expected to enroll over 1.29 million students by 2015, compared to a Closing the Gaps goal of 1.6 million. For public universities, fall 2006 participation totaled 491,000 students. This figure represents an increase of about 5,700 more students than enrolled in 2005, or an annual growth rate of 1.2 percent. The fall 2000 to fall 2005 five-year participation increase totaled 17 percent. From 2005 to 2010, participation is forecasted to increase more slowly at 6.4 percent to about 516,000 students. For the next five-year period, from 2010 to 2015, the rate of enrollment growth is projected to decline again to 3.4 percent and then to 3 percent from 2015 to Texas public universities are expected to enroll 533,700 students by 2015 and 550,000 in Texas public two-year colleges have generally grown more rapidly than universities since the mid-1960s and are expected to continue to outpace universities growth. Public colleges participation in fall 2006 totaled approximately 586,000 students. This represents an increase of about 18,000 students over fall 2005 participation, or a 3.2 percent annual growth rate. This Participation Forecast estimates two-year institutions will grow by 9 percent for the five-year period from 2005 to 2010, to about 617,000 students., For the subsequent five-year period from 2010 to 2015 colleges growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent, just as projected for universities. Unlike universities, colleges pace of growth is anticipated to rebound to 6.2 percent from 2015 to As a result of these increases, Texas public two-year colleges are expected to enroll more than 640,000 students by 2015, and 680,000 by

9 No enrollment projections are made for health-related institutions because their enrollments are more closely related to state policies than to state population growth. 2

10 Table 1 Fall Headcount Participation Forecasts Texas Institutions of Higher Education Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Public Universities 414, , , , , , , , ,595 Public Two-Year Colleges 447, , , , , , , , ,021 Independent Senior Colleges and Universities 107, , , , , , , , ,761 Total 970,305 1,165,356 1,190,218 1,213,940 1,226,543 1,239,037 1,249,686 1,291,993 1,348,378 Table 2 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Participation Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Public Universities 70, % 31, % 17, % 15, % Public Two-Year Colleges 118, % 50, % 23, % 39, % Independent Senior Colleges and Universities 6, % 2, % 1, % % Total 195, % 84, % 42, % 56, % 3

11 Figure 2 Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Ten Regions 4

12 Table 3 Participation Projections by Region Texas Public Institutions of Higher Education Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Central Texas Region Texas A&M University 44,026 44,578 45,377 45,845 45,959 46,053 46,053 47,616 48,266 Texas State University - San Marcos 22,423 27,129 27,503 27,874 28,102 28,321 28,514 29,003 29,577 The University of Texas at Austin 49,996 49,233 49,697 50,039 50,448 50,829 51,150 52,273 52,588 University Subtotal 116, , , , , , , , ,431 5 Austin Community College 25,853 30,499 31,585 31,824 32,113 32,423 32,705 34,596 37,338 Blinn College 12,025 14,351 14,016 14,452 14,443 14,424 14,458 14,478 14,507 Central Texas College 6,650 8,704 9,342 9,083 9,220 9,357 9,475 10,071 10,828 Hill College 2,506 3,084 3,489 3,446 3,475 3,499 3,502 3,606 3,795 McLennan Community College 5,721 7,638 7,810 7,858 7,882 7,896 7,903 7,886 8,023 Temple College 3,381 3,897 4,270 4,239 4,279 4,322 4,359 4,530 4,983 Texas State Technical College Waco 3,928 4,528 4,444 4,330 4,355 4,377 4,384 4,377 4,488 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 60,064 72,701 74,956 75,232 75,767 76,297 76,788 79,545 83,961 Central Texas Regional Totals 176, , , , , , , , ,391 Gulf Coast Region Prairie View A&M University 6,609 7,912 7,962 8,050 8,183 8,306 8,409 8,665 8,673 Sam Houston State University 12,348 15,308 15,893 16,009 16,107 16,199 16,270 16,268 16,288 Texas A&M University at Galveston 1,363 1,661 1,553 1,571 1,574 1,575 1,573 1,535 1,538 Texas Southern University 6,886 11,478 9,579 9,580 9,737 9,888 10,017 10,360 10,357 University of Houston 32,123 34,582 34,334 35,209 35,616 36,052 36,475 37,939 39,271 University of Houston-Clear Lake 7,580 7,826 7,828 7,929 8,010 8,093 8,171 8,432 8,562 University of Houston-Downtown 8,951 11,433 11,449 11,760 11,954 12,168 12,385 13,359 14,196 University Subtotal 75,860 90,200 88,598 90,107 91,180 92,281 93,300 96,557 98,885 Alvin Community College 3,531 3,828 3,983 4,029 4,080 4,128 4,163 4,344 4,589

13 6 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Brazosport College 3,855 3,604 3,809 3,871 3,926 3,976 4,009 4,196 4,478 College of the Mainland Community College District 3,159 3,992 3,780 3,808 3,836 3,862 3,878 3,886 3,937 Galveston College 2,245 2,215 2,151 2,159 2,179 2,199 2,211 2,246 2,305 Houston Community College 33,509 35,595 37,220 41,999 42,588 43,213 43,815 46,739 50,180 Lee College 6,170 4,576 5,348 5,300 5,354 5,407 5,452 5,635 5,837 NHMCCCD Cy Fair College 0 9,799 10,904 11,531 12,087 12,631 13,162 14,272 15,371 NHMCCCD Kingwood College 4,568 6,837 7,009 7,096 7,150 7,199 7,242 7,404 7,710 NHMCCCD Montgomery College 5,316 7,971 8,201 8,419 8,588 8,751 8,915 9,512 10,038 NHMCCCD North Harris College 9,118 10,878 10,456 10,984 11,122 11,263 11,393 11,965 12,801 NHMCCCD Tomball College 5,902 7,600 7,772 7,942 8,181 8,305 8,422 8,529 8,842 San Jacinto College Central Campus 10,816 12,627 13,205 13,417 13,503 13,592 13,673 14,046 14,765 San Jacinto College North Campus 4,937 5,529 5,370 5,825 5,900 5,976 6,048 6,377 6,823 San Jacinto College South Campus 6,238 8,554 9,519 9,594 9,665 9,740 9,809 10,108 10,630 Wharton County Junior College 4,571 6,008 6,090 6,300 6,390 6,472 6,508 6,565 6,685 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 103, , , , , , , , ,991 Gulf Coast Regional Totals 179, , , , , , , , ,876 High Plains Region Texas Tech University 24,199 27,940 27,996 28,026 28,016 28,019 27,976 27,156 27,014 West Texas A&M University 6,775 7,293 7,412 7,461 7,479 7,506 7,508 7,431 7,396 University Subtotal 30,974 35,233 35,408 35,487 35,495 35,524 35,484 34,588 34,410 Amarillo College 8,181 10,391 10,335 10,506 10,585 10,652 10,694 10,936 11,338 Clarendon College 1,001 1,116 1,098 1,087 1,082 1,078 1,065 1, Frank Phillips College 1,153 1,207 1,365 1,321 1,320 1,302 1,290 1,238 1,301 South Plains College 7,432 9,233 9,060 9,171 9,133 9,081 8,992 8,646 8,919 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 17,767 21,947 21,858 22,086 22,119 22,113 22,041 21,827 22,553 High Plains Regional Totals 48,741 57,180 57,266 57,573 57,615 57,638 57,526 56,415 56,963 Metroplex Region Tarleton State University 7,545 9,140 9,464 9,692 9,757 9,816 9,853 9,842 9,951

14 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Texas A&M University-Commerce 7,483 8,677 8,672 8,883 8,967 9,074 9,177 9,513 9,768 Texas Woman's University 8,404 11,326 11,966 12,307 12,479 12,676 12,865 13,803 14,763 The University of Texas at Arlington 20,424 25,216 25,239 26,151 26,422 26,723 27,020 28,201 29,454 The University of Texas at Dallas 10,945 14,399 14,547 14,796 14,984 15,205 15,421 16,555 17,886 University of North Texas 27,054 31,947 33,443 33,804 34,189 34,633 35,037 36,694 38,384 University Subtotal 81, , , , , , , , ,207 7 Collin County Community College District 12,704 18,221 19,093 19,614 20,218 20,882 21,560 24,987 28,167 DCCCD Brookhaven College 7,687 9,725 9,625 9,875 9,993 10,145 10,292 11,101 12,178 DCCCD Cedar Valley College 2,799 4,300 4,567 4,400 4,444 4,487 4,523 4,643 4,858 DCCCD Eastfield College 7,643 9,452 9,353 9,595 9,675 9,779 9,869 10,339 11,175 DCCCD El Centro College 4,366 6,629 6,584 6,809 6,902 7,005 7,102 7,597 8,266 DCCCD Mountain View College 4,949 6,140 6,765 7,046 7,155 7,286 7,420 8,136 9,118 DCCCD North Lake College 6,764 8,623 8,932 8,971 9,032 9,124 9,211 9,755 10,553 DCCCD Richland College 11,958 13,552 14,055 14,197 14,282 14,410 14,526 15,247 16,467 Grayson County College 3,260 3,715 3,935 3,899 3,899 3,909 3,900 3,880 3,965 Navarro College 3,989 6,359 7,179 7,142 7,176 7,209 7,219 7,268 7,620 North Central Texas College 4,794 6,967 7,338 7,513 7,621 7,751 7,863 8,475 9,138 Tarrant County Junior College Northeast Campus 9,315 12,372 13,164 12,595 12,688 12,774 12,846 13,095 13,531 Tarrant County Junior College Northwest Campus 4,199 7,356 8,093 8,350 8,429 8,513 8,587 8,934 9,417 Tarrant County Junior College South Campus 7,062 9,885 9,837 9,535 9,648 9,760 9,860 10,315 10,869 Tarrant County Junior College Southeast Campus 7,293 8,975 9,972 9,535 9,636 9,737 9,831 10,216 10,801 Weatherford College 2,751 4,437 4,481 4,574 4,633 4,668 4,666 4,645 4,734 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 101, , , , , , , , ,857 Metroplex Regional Totals 183, , , , , , , , ,064 Northwest Region

15 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Midwestern State University 5,812 6,182 6,038 5,983 6,023 6,066 6,076 6,095 6,087 University Subtotal 5,812 6,182 6,038 5,983 6,023 6,066 6,076 6,095 6,087 Cisco Junior College 2,639 3,494 3,554 3,537 3,535 3,518 3,499 3,403 3,480 Ranger College Texas State Technical College, West Texas 1,563 1,660 1,487 1,490 1,490 1,489 1,482 1,449 1,479 Vernon College 2,095 2,784 2,793 2,903 2,911 2,913 2,901 2,887 2,904 Western Texas College 1,176 1,756 1,990 2,036 2,023 2,004 1,977 1,865 1,914 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 8,320 10,452 10,697 10,829 10,827 10,788 10,715 10,435 10,618 Northwest Regional Totals 14,132 16,634 16,735 16,812 16,850 16,855 16,791 16,530 16,705 8 South Texas Region Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 828 1, ,021 1,047 1,169 1,232 Texas A&M International University 3,038 4,298 4,988 5,125 5,273 5,419 5,567 6,209 6,912 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 6,823 8,355 8,584 8,816 9,085 9,260 9,550 10,600 11,260 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 5,942 6,662 6,681 6,900 6,987 7,070 7,141 7,388 7,654 The University of Texas at Brownsville 3,157 4,759 4,904 5,064 5,177 5,294 5,419 5,946 6,341 The University of Texas at San Antonio 18,830 27,291 28,379 30,814 31,173 31,494 31,746 32,687 33,784 The University of Texas-Pan American 12,760 17,048 17,337 18,304 18,854 19,408 19,907 22,044 24,437 University of Houston-Victoria 1,698 2,491 2,636 2,660 2,718 2,778 2,835 3,054 3,198 University Subtotal 53,076 71,910 74,457 78,652 80,262 81,744 83,211 89,097 94,819 Alamo Community College Northwest Vista College 4,056 9,151 9,807 9,908 9,979 10,043 10,079 10,083 10,409 Alamo Community College Palo Alto College 6,370 8,065 8,027 8,244 8,334 8,420 8,480 8,658 9,045 Alamo Community College San Antonio College 20,490 21,555 21,599 21,854 22,054 22,229 22,352 22,714 23,419 Alamo Community College St. Philip's 8,286 10,187 9,830 10,013 10,136 10,246 10,336 10,694 11,056

16 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections College Coastal Bend College 3,026 3,353 3,237 3,273 3,286 3,295 3,289 3,290 3,423 Del Mar College 9,683 11,889 11,360 11,987 12,115 12,262 12,351 12,646 13,177 Laredo Community College 7,284 8,169 8,173 8,217 8,457 8,688 8,927 9,780 11,252 South Texas College 11,183 16,233 18,443 19,061 19,657 20,235 20,693 22,430 25,555 Southwest Texas Junior College 3,716 5,067 5,252 5,464 5,571 5,669 5,720 5,870 6,219 Texas Southmost College 7,245 10,517 13,200 13,507 13,790 14,033 14,232 14,850 16,788 Texas State Technical College Harlingen 3,266 4,257 4,489 4,490 4,585 4,666 4,733 4,936 5,524 Victoria College, The 4,021 3,980 4,039 4,138 4,163 4,178 4,174 4,149 4,241 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 88, , , , , , , , ,107 South Texas Regional Totals 141, , , , , , , , ,926 9 Southeast Texas Region Lamar University 8,568 10,523 9,867 9,915 9,931 9,952 9,933 9,779 9,669 Stephen F. Austin State University 11,453 11,290 11,756 11,734 11,885 12,045 12,184 12,195 12,267 University Subtotal 20,021 21,813 21,623 21,649 21,816 21,997 22,116 21,974 21,937 Angelina College 4,376 4,756 4,678 4,703 4,714 4,728 4,725 4,766 4,887 Lamar Institute of Technology 2,349 2,711 2,409 2,425 2,437 2,453 2,463 2,479 2,470 Lamar State College-Orange 1,939 2,132 2,009 1,967 1,974 1,984 1,985 1,960 1,932 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 2,508 2,501 2,424 2,446 2,452 2,466 2,471 2,491 2,539 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 11,172 12,100 11,520 11,541 11,577 11,630 11,644 11,696 11,827 Southeast Texas Regional Totals 31,193 33,913 33,143 33,190 33,393 33,628 33,760 33,669 33,763 Upper East Texas Region Texas A&M University-Texarkana 1,195 1,549 1,625 1,636 1,640 1,647 1,654 1,679 1,654 The University of Texas at Tyler 3,592 5,746 5,926 5,985 6,006 6,030 6,038 5,987 5,988 University Subtotal 4,787 7,295 7,551 7,621 7,646 7,677 7,693 7,666 7,642 Kilgore College 3,872 4,815 4,697 4,822 4,810 4,790 4,745 4,567 4,631 Northeast Texas Community College 1,990 2,507 2,409 2,432 2,442 2,447 2,449 2,466 2,525

17 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Panola College 1,422 1,922 1,868 1,845 1,843 1,838 1,824 1,778 1,810 Paris Junior College 2,936 4,264 4,309 4,328 4,328 4,341 4,337 4,306 4,459 Texarkana College 3,394 3,682 3,671 3,672 3,641 3,637 3,598 3,383 3,302 Texas State Technical College Marshall Trinity Valley Community College 4,588 5,658 5,609 5,802 5,856 5,900 5,918 6,047 6,291 Tyler Junior College 8,240 9,265 9,422 9,323 9,335 9,359 9,356 9,306 9,536 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 26,953 32,678 32,609 32,848 32,879 32,935 32,848 32,462 33,163 Upper East Texas Regional Totals 31,740 39,973 40,160 40,469 40,525 40,612 40,541 40,128 40,806 Upper Rio Grande Region Sul Ross State University 2,010 1,918 1,829 1,853 1,878 1,901 1,918 1,917 1,937 The University of Texas at El Paso 15,224 19,257 19,842 20,579 20,940 21,280 21,572 22,444 23,268 University Subtotal 17,234 21,175 21,671 22,432 22,818 23,181 23,490 24,361 25, El Paso Community College District 17,747 24,239 23,801 24,669 25,126 25,545 25,904 26,968 28,635 Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 17,747 24,239 23,801 24,669 25,126 25,545 25,904 26,968 28,635 Upper Rio Grande Regional Totals 34,981 45,414 45,472 47,101 47,943 48,727 49,394 51,329 53,840 West Texas Region Angelo State University 6,290 6,140 6,287 6,197 6,160 6,128 6,080 6,170 6,300 The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 2,272 3,406 3,469 3,641 3,662 3,682 3,689 3,680 3,673 University Subtotal 8,562 9,546 9,756 9,839 9,822 9,810 9,769 9,850 9,973 Howard College 2,337 2,713 3,033 3,019 3,006 2,992 2,967 2,859 2,891 Midland College 4,841 5,584 5,798 5,940 5,907 5,878 5,820 5,585 5,672 Odessa College 4,568 4,788 4,596 4,597 4,598 4,581 4,557 4,460 4,608 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf Two-Year Colleges Subtotal 11,881 13,210 13,539 13,683 13,638 13,578 13,472 13,039 13,310 West Texas Regional Totals 20,443 22,756 23,295 23,522 23,460 23,388 23,240 22,889 23,283

18 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Public Total 862,624 1,051,070 1,075,236 1,098,129 1,110,410 1,122,615 1,132,986 1,174,214 1,229,617 * 11

19 Table 4 Fall Headcount Participation Forecasts Texas Public Universities 12 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Angelo State University 6,290 6,140 6,287 6,197 6,160 6,128 6,080 6,170 6,300 Lamar University 8,568 10,523 9,867 9,915 9,931 9,952 9,933 9,779 9,669 Midwestern State University 5,812 6,182 6,038 5,983 6,023 6,066 6,076 6,095 6,087 Prairie View A&M University 6,609 7,912 7,962 8,050 8,183 8,306 8,409 8,665 8,673 Sam Houston State University 12,348 15,308 15,893 16,009 16,107 16,199 16,270 16,268 16,288 Stephen F. Austin State University 11,453 11,290 11,756 11,734 11,885 12,045 12,184 12,195 12,267 Sul Ross State University 2,010 1,918 1,829 1,853 1,878 1,901 1,918 1,917 1,937 Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College 828 1, ,021 1,047 1,169 1,232 Tarleton State University 7,545 9,140 9,464 9,692 9,757 9,816 9,853 9,842 9,951 Texas A&M International University 3,038 4,298 4,988 5,125 5,273 5,419 5,567 6,209 6,912 Texas A&M University 44,026 44,578 45,377 45,845 45,959 46,053 46,053 47,616 48,266 Texas A&M University at Galveston 1,363 1,661 1,553 1,571 1,574 1,575 1,573 1,535 1,538 Texas A&M University-Commerce 7,483 8,677 8,672 8,883 8,967 9,074 9,177 9,513 9,768 Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 6,823 8,355 8,584 8,816 9,085 9,260 9,550 10,600 11,260 Texas A&M University-Kingsville 5,942 6,662 6,681 6,900 6,987 7,070 7,141 7,388 7,654 Texas A&M University-Texarkana 1,195 1,549 1,625 1,636 1,640 1,647 1,654 1,679 1,654 Texas Southern University 6,886 11,478 9,579 9,580 9,737 9,888 10,017 10,360 10,357 Texas State University - San Marcos 22,423 27,129 27,503 27,874 28,102 28,321 28,514 29,003 29,577 Texas Tech University 24,199 27,940 27,996 28,026 28,016 28,019 27,976 27,156 27,014 Texas Woman's University 8,404 11,326 11,966 12,307 12,479 12,676 12,865 13,803 14,763 The University of Texas at Arlington 20,424 25,216 25,239 26,151 26,422 26,723 27,020 28,201 29,454 The University of Texas at Austin 49,996 49,233 49,697 50,039 50,448 50,829 51,150 52,273 52,588 The University of Texas at Brownsville 3,157 4,759 4,904 5,064 5,177 5,294 5,419 5,946 6,341 The University of Texas at Dallas 10,945 14,399 14,547 14,796 14,984 15,205 15,421 16,555 17,886 The University of Texas at El Paso 15,224 19,257 19,842 20,579 20,940 21,280 21,572 22,444 23,268 The University of Texas at San Antonio 18,830 27,291 28,379 30,814 31,173 31,494 31,746 32,687 33,784 The University of Texas at Tyler 3,592 5,746 5,926 5,985 6,006 6,030 6,038 5,987 5,988

20 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 2,272 3,406 3,469 3,641 3,662 3,682 3,689 3,680 3,673 The University of Texas-Pan American 12,760 17,048 17,337 18,304 18,854 19,408 19,907 22,044 24,437 University of Houston 32,123 34,582 34,334 35,209 35,616 36,052 36,475 37,939 39,271 University of Houston-Clear Lake 7,580 7,826 7,828 7,929 8,010 8,093 8,171 8,432 8,562 University of Houston-Downtown 8,951 11,433 11,449 11,760 11,954 12,168 12,385 13,359 14,196 University of Houston-Victoria 1,698 2,491 2,636 2,660 2,718 2,778 2,835 3,054 3,198 University of North Texas 27,054 31,947 33,443 33,804 34,189 34,633 35,037 36,694 38,384 West Texas A&M University 6,775 7,293 7,412 7,461 7,479 7,506 7,508 7,431 7,396 University Statewide Totals 414, , , , , , , , ,595 13

21 Table 5 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Participation Public Universities Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Angelo State University (150) -2.4% (60) -1.0% % % Lamar University 1, % (590) -5.6% (154) -1.5% (109) -1.1% Midwestern State University % (106) -1.7% % (8) -0.1% Prairie View A&M University 1, % % % 9 0.1% Sam Houston State University 2, % % (2) 0.0% % Stephen F. Austin State University (163) -1.4% % % % Sul Ross State University (92) -4.6% 0 0.0% (1) -0.1% % Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College % % % % Tarleton State University 1, % % (11) -0.1% % Texas A&M International University 1, % 1, % % % Texas A&M University % 1, % 1, % % Texas A&M University at Galveston % (88) -5.3% (38) -2.4% 3 0.2% Texas A&M University-Commerce 1, % % % % Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi 1, % 1, % 1, % % Texas A&M University-Kingsville % % % % Texas A&M University-Texarkana % % % (25) -1.5% Texas Southern University 4, % (1,461) -12.7% % (2) 0.0% Texas State University - San Marcos 4, % 1, % % % Texas Tech University 3, % % (820) -2.9% (142) -0.5% Texas Woman's University 2, % 1, % % % The University of Texas at Arlington 4, % 1, % 1, % 1, % The University of Texas at Austin (763) -1.5% 1, % 1, % % The University of Texas at Brownsville 1, % % % % The University of Texas at Dallas 3, % 1, % 1, % 1, % The University of Texas at El Paso 4, % 2, % % % The University of Texas at San Antonio 8, % 4, % % 1, % The University of Texas at Tyler 2, % % (51) -0.8% 1 0.0%

22 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent The University of Texas of the Permian Basin 1, % % (9) -0.2% (7) -0.2% The University of Texas-Pan American 4, % 2, % 2, % 2, % University of Houston 2, % 1, % 1, % 1, % University of Houston-Clear Lake % % % % University of Houston-Downtown 2, % % % % University of Houston-Victoria % % % % University of North Texas 4, % 3, % 1, % 1, % West Texas A&M University % % (77) -1.0% (35) -0.5% University Statewide Totals 70, % 31, % 17, % 15, % 15

23 Table 6 Fall Headcount Participation Forecast Two-year Colleges 16 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Alamo Community College Northwest Vista College 4,056 9,151 9,807 9,908 9,979 10,043 10,079 10,083 10,409 Alamo Community College Palo Alto College 6,370 8,065 8,027 8,244 8,334 8,420 8,480 8,658 9,045 Alamo Community College San Antonio College 20,490 21,555 21,599 21,854 22,054 22,229 22,352 22,714 23,419 Alamo Community College St. Philip's College 8,286 10,187 9,830 10,013 10,136 10,246 10,336 10,694 11,056 Alvin Community College 3,531 3,828 3,983 4,029 4,080 4,128 4,163 4,344 4,589 Amarillo College 8,181 10,391 10,335 10,506 10,585 10,652 10,694 10,936 11,338 Angelina College 4,376 4,756 4,678 4,703 4,714 4,728 4,725 4,766 4,887 Austin Community College 25,853 30,499 31,585 31,824 32,113 32,423 32,705 34,596 37,338 Blinn College 12,025 14,351 14,016 14,452 14,443 14,424 14,458 14,478 14,507 Brazosport College 3,855 3,604 3,809 3,871 3,926 3,976 4,009 4,196 4,478 Central Texas College 6,650 8,704 9,342 9,083 9,220 9,357 9,475 10,071 10,828 Cisco Junior College 2,639 3,494 3,554 3,537 3,535 3,518 3,499 3,403 3,480 Clarendon College 1,001 1,116 1,098 1,087 1,082 1,078 1,065 1, Coastal Bend College 3,026 3,353 3,237 3,273 3,286 3,295 3,289 3,290 3,423 College of the Mainland Community College District 3,159 3,992 3,780 3,808 3,836 3,862 3,878 3,886 3,937 Collin County Community College District 12,704 18,221 19,093 19,614 20,218 20,882 21,560 24,987 28,167 DCCCD Brookhaven College 7,687 9,725 9,625 9,875 9,993 10,145 10,292 11,101 12,178 DCCCD Cedar Valley College 2,799 4,300 4,567 4,400 4,444 4,487 4,523 4,643 4,858 DCCCD Eastfield College 7,643 9,452 9,353 9,595 9,675 9,779 9,869 10,339 11,175 DCCCD El Centro College 4,366 6,629 6,584 6,809 6,902 7,005 7,102 7,597 8,266 DCCCD Mountain View College 4,949 6,140 6,765 7,046 7,155 7,286 7,420 8,136 9,118 DCCCD North Lake College 6,764 8,623 8,932 8,971 9,032 9,124 9,211 9,755 10,553 DCCCD Richland College 11,958 13,552 14,055 14,197 14,282 14,410 14,526 15,247 16,467 Del Mar College 9,683 11,889 11,360 11,987 12,115 12,262 12,351 12,646 13,177 El Paso Community College District 17,747 24,239 23,801 24,669 25,126 25,545 25,904 26,968 28,635 Frank Phillips College 1,153 1,207 1,365 1,321 1,320 1,302 1,290 1,238 1,301

24 17 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Galveston College 2,245 2,215 2,151 2,159 2,179 2,199 2,211 2,246 2,305 Grayson County College 3,260 3,715 3,935 3,899 3,899 3,909 3,900 3,880 3,965 Hill College 2,506 3,084 3,489 3,446 3,475 3,499 3,502 3,606 3,795 Houston Community College 33,509 35,595 37,220 41,999 42,588 43,213 43,815 46,739 50,180 Howard College 2,337 2,713 3,033 3,019 3,006 2,992 2,967 2,859 2,891 Kilgore College 3,872 4,815 4,697 4,822 4,810 4,790 4,745 4,567 4,631 Lamar Institute of Technology 2,349 2,711 2,409 2,425 2,437 2,453 2,463 2,479 2,470 Lamar State College-Orange 1,939 2,132 2,009 1,967 1,974 1,984 1,985 1,960 1,932 Lamar State College-Port Arthur 2,508 2,501 2,424 2,446 2,452 2,466 2,471 2,491 2,539 Laredo Community College 7,284 8,169 8,173 8,217 8,457 8,688 8,927 9,780 11,252 Lee College 6,170 4,576 5,348 5,300 5,354 5,407 5,452 5,635 5,837 McLennan Community College 5,721 7,638 7,810 7,858 7,882 7,896 7,903 7,886 8,023 Midland College 4,841 5,584 5,798 5,940 5,907 5,878 5,820 5,585 5,672 Navarro College 3,989 6,359 7,179 7,142 7,176 7,209 7,219 7,268 7,620 NHMCCCD Cy Fair College 0 9,799 10,904 11,531 12,087 12,631 13,162 14,272 15,371 NHMCCCD Kingwood College 4,568 6,837 7,009 7,096 7,150 7,199 7,242 7,404 7,710 NHMCCCD Montgomery College 5,316 7,971 8,201 8,419 8,588 8,751 8,915 9,512 10,038 NHMCCCD North Harris College 9,118 10,878 10,456 10,984 11,122 11,263 11,393 11,965 12,801 NHMCCCD Tomball College 5,902 7,600 7,772 7,942 8,181 8,305 8,422 8,529 8,842 North Central Texas College 4,794 6,967 7,338 7,513 7,621 7,751 7,863 8,475 9,138 Northeast Texas Community College 1,990 2,507 2,409 2,432 2,442 2,447 2,449 2,466 2,525 Odessa College 4,568 4,788 4,596 4,597 4,598 4,581 4,557 4,460 4,608 Panola College 1,422 1,922 1,868 1,845 1,843 1,838 1,824 1,778 1,810 Paris Junior College 2,936 4,264 4,309 4,328 4,328 4,341 4,337 4,306 4,459 Ranger College San Jacinto College Central Campus 10,816 12,627 13,205 13,417 13,503 13,592 13,673 14,046 14,765 San Jacinto College North Campus 4,937 5,529 5,370 5,825 5,900 5,976 6,048 6,377 6,823 San Jacinto College South Campus 6,238 8,554 9,519 9,594 9,665 9,740 9,809 10,108 10,630 South Plains College 7,432 9,233 9,060 9,171 9,133 9,081 8,992 8,646 8,919 South Texas College 11,183 16,233 18,443 19,061 19,657 20,235 20,693 22,430 25,555 Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf

25 18 Actual Actual Actual/Prel Total Projections Southwest Texas Junior College 3,716 5,067 5,252 5,464 5,571 5,669 5,720 5,870 6,219 Tarrant County Junior College Northeast Campus 9,315 12,372 13,164 12,595 12,688 12,774 12,846 13,095 13,531 Tarrant County Junior College Northwest Campus 4,199 7,356 8,093 8,350 8,429 8,513 8,587 8,934 9,417 Tarrant County Junior College South Campus 7,062 9,885 9,837 9,535 9,648 9,760 9,860 10,315 10,869 Tarrant County Junior College Southeast Campus 7,293 8,975 9,972 9,535 9,636 9,737 9,831 10,216 10,801 Temple College 3,381 3,897 4,270 4,239 4,279 4,322 4,359 4,530 4,983 Texarkana College 3,394 3,682 3,671 3,672 3,641 3,637 3,598 3,383 3,302 Texas Southmost College 7,245 10,517 13,200 13,507 13,790 14,033 14,232 14,850 16,788 Texas State Technical College Harlingen 3,266 4,257 4,489 4,490 4,585 4,666 4,733 4,936 5,524 Texas State Technical College Marshall Texas State Technical College Waco 3,928 4,528 4,444 4,330 4,355 4,377 4,384 4,377 4,488 Texas State Technical College, West Texas 1,563 1,660 1,487 1,490 1,490 1,489 1,482 1,449 1,479 Trinity Valley Community College 4,588 5,658 5,609 5,802 5,856 5,900 5,918 6,047 6,291 Tyler Junior College 8,240 9,265 9,422 9,323 9,335 9,359 9,356 9,306 9,536 Vernon College 2,095 2,784 2,793 2,903 2,911 2,913 2,901 2,887 2,904 Victoria College, The 4,021 3,980 4,039 4,138 4,163 4,178 4,174 4,149 4,241 Weatherford College 2,751 4,437 4,481 4,574 4,633 4,668 4,666 4,645 4,734 Western Texas College 1,176 1,756 1,990 2,036 2,023 2,004 1,977 1,865 1,914 Wharton County Junior College 4,571 6,008 6,090 6,300 6,390 6,472 6,508 6,565 6,685 Two-Year Colleges Statewide Totals 447, , , , , , , , ,021

26 Table 7 Forecasted Changes in Fall Headcount Participation Public Two-year Colleges Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Alamo Community College Northwest Vista College 5, % % 4 0.0% % Alamo Community College Palo Alto College 1, % % % % Alamo Community College San Antonio College 1, % % % % Alamo Community College St. Philip's College 1, % % % % Alvin Community College % % % % Amarillo College 2, % % % % Angelina College % (31) -0.7% % % Austin Community College 4, % 2, % 1, % 2, % Blinn College 2, % % % % Brazosport College (251) -6.5% % % % Central Texas College 2, % % % % Cisco Junior College % 5 0.1% (96) -2.7% % Clarendon College % (51) -4.6% (58) -5.4% (12) -1.2% Coastal Bend College % (64) -1.9% 1 0.0% % College of the Mainland Community College District % (114) -2.9% 8 0.2% % Collin County Community College District 5, % 3, % 3, % 3, % DCCCD Brookhaven College 2, % % % 1, % DCCCD Cedar Valley College 1, % % % % DCCCD Eastfield College 1, % % % % DCCCD El Centro College 2, % % % % DCCCD Mountain View College 1, % 1, % % % DCCCD North Lake College 1, % % % % DCCCD Richland College 1, % % % 1, % Del Mar College 2, % % % % El Paso Community College District 6, % 1, % 1, % 1, % Frank Phillips College % % (53) -4.1% %

27 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Galveston College (30) -1.3% (4) -0.2% % % Grayson County College % % (20) -0.5% % Hill College % % % % Houston Community College 2, % 8, % 2, % 3, % Howard College % % (108) -3.7% % Kilgore College % (70) -1.5% (178) -3.8% % Lamar Institute of Technology % (248) -9.1% % (9) -0.4% Lamar State College-Orange % (147) -6.9% (25) -1.3% (28) -1.5% Lamar State College-Port Arthur (7) -0.3% (30) -1.2% % % Laredo Community College % % % 1, % Lee College (1,594) -25.8% % % % McLennan Community College 1, % % (17) -0.2% % Midland College % % (235) -4.0% % Navarro College 2, % % % % NHMCCCD Cy Fair College 9, % 3, % 1, % 1, % NHMCCCD Kingwood College 2, % % % % NHMCCCD Montgomery College 2, % % % % NHMCCCD North Harris College 1, % % % % NHMCCCD Tomball College 1, % % % % North Central Texas College 2, % % % % Northeast Texas Community College % (58) -2.3% % % Odessa College % (231) -4.8% (97) -2.1% % Panola College % (98) -5.1% (46) -2.5% % Paris Junior College 1, % % (31) -0.7% % Ranger College (89) -10.5% % (27) -3.1% % San Jacinto College Central Campus 1, % 1, % % % San Jacinto College North Campus % % % % San Jacinto College South Campus 2, % 1, % % % South Plains College 1, % (241) -2.6% (345) -3.8% % South Texas College 5, % 4, % 1, % 3, % Southwest Collegiate Institute for the Deaf (10) -7.4% 3 2.4% 7 5.4% 3 2.0%

28 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Southwest Texas Junior College 1, % % % % Tarrant County Junior College Northeast Campus 3, % % % % Tarrant County Junior College Northwest Campus 3, % 1, % % % Tarrant County Junior College South Campus 2, % (25) -0.2% % % Tarrant County Junior College Southeast Campus 1, % % % % Temple College % % % % Texarkana College % (84) -2.3% (215) -6.0% (81) -2.4% Texas Southmost College 3, % 3, % % 1, % Texas State Technical College Harlingen % % % % Texas State Technical College Marshall % % (13) -2.1% 1 0.2% Texas State Technical College Waco % (144) -3.2% (7) -0.2% % Texas State Technical College, West Texas % (178) -10.8% (32) -2.2% % Trinity Valley Community College 1, % % % % Tyler Junior College 1, % % (49) -0.5% % Vernon College % % (14) -0.5% % Victoria College, The (41) -1.0% % (25) -0.6% % Weatherford College 1, % % (20) -0.4% % Western Texas College % % (111) -5.6% % Wharton County Junior College 1, % % % % Two-Year Colleges Statewide Totals 118, % 50, % 23, % 39, %

29 Figure 3 Participation Forecast Development Process Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board Institutions ( ) Historical Participation by county/age/ ethnicity Fall 2006 Preliminary* in-state participation by institution Historical ratio between in-state and non-resident participation by institution Adjustment for institutions policies and local conditions 22 3-in-state participation rates by institution/ county/age/ ethnicity 3-in-state forecasts for 2006 for each institution Compare 3-forecasts with 2006 preliminary* And select best fit rate for each institution Draft total participation forecast by institution Participation Forecast Texas pop. by county/age/ethnicity , Use best fit rate & pop. To forecast 2007, 2008, 2010, 2015 and 2020 in-state participation/y institution Adjust in-state Forecast by Institution for 2007, 2008, 2010, 2015 and 2020 *Certified Fall 2006 enrollment was used if available.

30 Methodology Texas Public College and University Participation Forecasts Participation forecasts were developed for each public college and university. Aggregate participation forecasts for the 35 public universities, the 50 public community college districts, four public technical colleges, and three state colleges were determined by examining institutional fall headcount enrollments. The forecast methodology used five years of age- and racial/ethnic-specific historical public higher education participation for each Texas county. These participation data were combined with age- and racial/ethnic-specific population projection data. The individual forecasts were produced using multiple regression analysis techniques and, in a few instances, were modified using documented adjustment factors submitted by individual institutions. A general description of the forecast steps follows: For in-state student participation, five-years ( ) of participation by students from each county was subdivided into age groups and racial/ethnic groups (Hispanic, African American, White, and Other) at each institution. These data were matched with county population estimates to develop three alternative, age-specific in-state participation rates for each of the four racial/ethnic groups in each of the 254 counties. The three alternative rates, were applied to 2006 population estimates to derive three alternative in-state participation levels for each institution. Each institution s three alternative forecasts were compared with its certified (if available) or preliminary in-state participation for fall 2006 and with past participation trends. The forecast rate chosen (called best fit ) was that closest to the actual or preliminary enrollment. The best fit participation was adjusted using a multiplier, if necessary, to calculate a rate within +/- 3 percent of the in-state headcount. The participation rate alternative, and possibly an adjustment multiplier, that produced the best fit for each institution were applied to projected population by county/age/ethnic data for the years 2006, 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2020 to obtain a forecast of in-state participation for each institution. The resulting forecast was based on that fixed participation rate for the entire forecast period. Non-Texas resident participation, which includes both out-of-state and foreign students, was determined by examining the five-year record ( ) and computing a ratio of nonresident to in-state students for each institution. These historical data were compared with the certified (if available) or preliminary fall 2006 institutional reports of nonresidential enrollments. The best fit ratio was used to compute nonresident participation. 23

31 The calculated in-state and nonresident participation for each institution was combined to obtain a draft total participation forecast for the years 2007, 2008, 2010, 2015, and An adjustment was made to the draft total participation for some institutions based on known enrollment management policies. Also, the draft forecast was sent to each institution for review and response prior to final publication. Based on conditions unique to specific institutions which could not be accounted for in the methodology, adjustments may have been made. The accuracy of the past forecasts was also taken into consideration when evaluating institutional adjustment suggestions. Historical Participation Tables 8, 9, 10, and 11 provide recent participation data. Data in these tables present in-state and nonresident enrollments at all public universities and public two-year colleges statewide by age and racial/ethnic group. This same participation information is available at the county level for each of these public institutions. Between 2001 and 2006, enrollment increased at public universities by 54,229 students (12.6 percent). At public community and technical colleges, enrollment increases totaled 87,758 students, or 18.3 percent. At both types of institutions, increases have been greater for Hispanics than for African American, White and Other students. Nevertheless, in 2005, White students made up 53.3 percent of the enrollment at public universities and 48.6 percent at public two-year colleges. Approximately 90 percent of all public university students and 86 percent of two-year college students were under 35 years of age. Texas residents comprised 90.2 percent of all students at public universities and 94.7 percent at public two-year colleges. 24